Potential exists today for a DCVZ setup east and southeast of the metro area. Most of the numerical models show the benign wind pattern that’s in place now to shift more southeasterly and strengthen to about 10-15kts, setting up a Denver Cyclone as the winds wrap around the Palmer. Areas along I-25 dry out slightly with dews in the upper 40s into the low 50s as areas east and south of Denver are in the mid to upper 50s with 60s out further onto the plains. If temperatures can hold in the mid to upper 80s across these areas and a storm can get a decent enough updraft, you might (and I mean might as in very slim) manage some low-level spin enough to induce a brief landspout or two. My guess is hail will likely be the main threat along with wind. Upper flow remains pretty weak (20kts at 500mb), and it remains out of the west/northwest. The setup isn’t a slam dunk by any stretch and many of those models are lacking any real precip breakout by 0z, so it’ a tough call as to whether or not to make the effort. However, I can be down on the Palmer within an hour, so I don’t need to hustle out of here too early.
I’ll keep tabs on things as the afternoon wears on and if the high-rez models start breaking out precip or current trends indicate storm initiation is likely to occur, I’ll head on out and test the DCVZ waters. We’ll see!
