With the Sunday/Monday system finally starting to show up on the NAM, we can now start to dive deeper into the details of this potential chasing event. While it will still be a day before we can really get a better grasp on the NAM’s take, the point being that we’re within a few days of the event and can actually start comparing various models against each other and really diving into finer details.
But I’ve been forecasting for a week on this system now, and there is one thing in forecasting I think doesn’t get enough credit, Climatology. And not just with the weather, but with yourself. Chasing now for my 8th “professional” season, I have a lot to look back on and compare to. In this case, how do I typically fare with early March chases?
Going back through my records, there weren’t that many chases prior to March 20 to compare to. I’ll open up all of March for this particular study and leave out any chases before and after the month, so this is completely a March deal. Note that I did NOT chase in March in 2002, 2003, and 2005.
| MARCH CHASING FOR ME (by Year) | |||||
| Year | # of Chases | Tornado Days | Hail Days | Good Storm Days | Bust Chases |
| 2004 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2006 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2007 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 2008 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 2009 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Totals | 18 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| MARCH CHASING FOR ME (by Date) | |||||
| Days | # of Chases | Tornado Days | Hail Days | Good Storm Days | Bust Chases |
| 1-10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 11-20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 21-31 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Totals | 18 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
You could add a tornado day to March from the 28th of 2007, a day I missed due to class obligations and a day that stings even still.
A bust in this case is either not seeing a storm, or seeing pooptacular and/or grungy storms. Basically I would’ve been absolutely fine with staying home for those chases (i.e. a waste of money and time). A “good storm day” offered marginal hail, good structure, nice lightning, something along those lines.
In total, 16220 miles (11% of my career total to this point) were driven during the month of March with over 25% of my 43 thousand-mile plus chases occurring here as well (3 more over 900 miles). So basically half of the 18 chases in March were 900 or more miles. All that says a lot of time, effort, and money go into chasing this month with little reward.
But the numbers aren’t good. In fact, aside from the lone good storm day (March 2, 2008), I typically don’t start doing well until we get passed March 20th. And even then, you’re talking about the ladder part of that stretch of days. If I had to give a concrete day based upon my experience, I would call it almost March 27 given the lone tornado day (March 27, 2004), both my hail days, and one good storm day fall after that date. You can add the March 28, 2007 outbreak day as well as I would’ve easily been part of that celebration under normal circumstances. All my bust chases occur prior to the 27th.
In my earlier years, April was always my jinx month, but I hadn’t introduced myself to March yet. It wasn’t til the great cold core tornado day of April 10, 2005 where I broke my April drought. And even still, I had plugged a trio of March tornadoes a year earlier, so I had tornadoes under my belt in March a year before I did in April. Since then, I have just as many tornadoes in February as I do in March on 1/6 the number of chases, but on two different days.
I don’t have any real meteorological explanation as every chase/bust differed in terms of why it sucked. Tornadoes were reported on a few of those days, but I don’t think there is a bust in that list that includes a day where I missed a bonified tornado. And its also worth mentioning days I didn’t chase that something probably occured, but nothing glaring comes to mind except the earlier mentioned March 28 outbreak (again, after my 27th threshold). A few people I’m sure will throw a few dates at me, and I’ll guess mainly over the southeast where I didn’t really have good access to at the time.
Early March chases to me seem like the dress rehearsal chases for most chasers. The excitement of being out for the first time after a long winter, the desire to stretch our highway legs, play with new toys, whatever… all reasons I think people chase this early in the season. Its tough to ignore that first big trough and knowing it has severe potential. Many poo-poo it, then will be chowing down on a dinner at some southern plains resturant with the rest of us who braved the odds to get out and experience a storm.
So how does all this relate to the upcoming storm system? Well, who really knows? But if you look at these stats and then look at the forecast, I’m figuring my odds to add to the tornado column (or even the hail column) seem pretty slim. Does this mean I won’t go out? Probably not cause I am a sucker for punishment, but perhaps common sense will overtake the desire to hit the road and I’ll save my money for that last week in March when my odds seem to improve.
Bottom line for me, March sucks. It always has and probably will continue to do so. Not only cause it sucks for chasing, but the one glaring good chase day I missed due to an obligation at school! Nothing with the upcoming system sets it apart from previous early-March chases except that it is the first big one to move through. Looking at all my previous March chases definitely has me taking a step back and thinking about the odds I’ve experienced and makes me wonder if I stay home for this if I will even remember I missed anything. Or will it mean come Wednesday I’ll be adding to this list. Who knows… but the 12z GFS is showing this system really digging well to the south, and definitely putting it in a range that’s way too far for me to want to drive for such crappy odds. As I have said all week, stay tuned!