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Tony Laubach's Storm Chase Blog
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Quick update from Park City, Kansas as we arrived at our hotel about half an hour ago. Just glancing at things to make sure its still worth being here, and as of now, that remains the case. Mid 50s dews have been thrust up here under a good southerly flow and I think moisture will make itself comfy here overnight. Cap issues remain, but there is hope storms will fire along the dryline before the cold front overtakes everything later in the evening. More in the morning, so goodnight from Park City, Kansas. 0 comments
A quick glimpse at things this morning make me lean toward skippin gout on the western Nebraska setup and heading straight out to Wichita this evening. I'm afraid any action will be too far north and take us further away from Thursday's target. I'll discuss things with my partners for the day and get their thoughts. Carl is due to land at 11:35am, from there we go grab the car, then grab Ed, and then head out.
A quick blurb regarding a change in my May-a-thon; I received official word today that I have no finals during finals week. Both my "finals" are projects that are currently ongoing. One of which I present the morning of Friday the 9th in a class which ends at noon. I am free from campus-obligations from that point on and thus my ventures can begin as early as the afternoon of the 9th if warranted. My first full day will be Saturday the 10th. My Visual Basic class was due to meet on Monday, the 12th, but a final project has been assigned as opposed to a written exam and thus there is no meeting of class on the 12th. My final is due on Saturday the 16th, I have every intention to crank it out before then. With all that said, my May 13th start has been bumped up to May 9th at noon. I will now have a full two weeks to play before I begin TWISTEX.
Chasing prior to that will remain as it has been; my only obligation is my Friday presentation. I have a full week between chases on Wednesday, Thursday, and possibly Friday before venturing up to fit the vehicles with their weather gear in Minnesota over the weekend. I should be back late Sunday.
The current system, as shown in the GFS, takes its sweet time moving through and things look quiet in its wake through the middle of next week. Another system is shown to be moving into the Pacific Northwest late in the week which may set the stage for a weekend chase immediately after I wrap up my classes that Friday.
The chaos begins in less than two weeks! When the GFS starts to get within range, you know you're close. A lot to do if I am to completely wrap everything up in the next two weeks, but I have the leeway in VB if need be. My initial focus is on my Motion Graphics class and wrapping up that project. That's quickly wrapping up as we speak!
Quickly touching on this week's chase plans; right now, I'll meet with Ed and pick up Carl and be on the road for a meager Wednesday high plains target no later than 1pm. We'll meet with Tim for Thursday where Ed will take my van back to Denver at the conclusion of our chase and I'll jump in with Tim and Carl for the rest of the trip. There's an outside chance of chasing Friday as well as we will be in position with our car pickup slated for Saturday. I'll return home on Sunday.
More on all that as it unfolds.. a busy week upcoming between that and my classwork!
Depressing news to speak of weather-wise for Denver... snow... yes, freakin' snow! Forecasts are hinting at the chance for snow on May 1 here in Denver. If that manages to come true, it'll be the latest season snow I've seen outside of a brief bout of fast flurries after a FROPA in June back a few years ago. This storm has the potential to bring heavy snow down here. Not the news I want to hear as I am so over winter. And I'm over it because winter sucked for us in terms of snow. It had its chance, now's not the time to repent!
However, chances are good that I'll be on the warm side of this storm chasing severe weather as I am doing a road trip to Minnesota this weekend with Tim Samaras, Verne Carlson, and Carl Young to fit the vehicles with the mesonets to be used in this year's go-around. Fortunately the chase will saw off a bit of drive time as we'll end up working our way there Thursday.
Thursday is the bigger of the two days at present, but I am looking at Wednesday for local possibilities up in northeast Colorado and the Nebraska panhandle. Ed Grubb may accompany me on these chases, and if so, will probably need to work out a plan to meet with Samaras and company. With that said, things are still up in the air.
Regardless, I have no desire to stick around here and depress myself with cold and snow. May 1 is way too late for me to think about snow. But alas, here it comes! I have questions as to whether anything will accumulate even as snow could be heavy. If it does accumulate, it won't be to the extent that it could if it were March.
Stay tuned for the news on both ends... final projects have kept me busy most of the weekend and thus my web updates have taken a backseat. I'll get to those at some point here soon as I am hopeful to wrap up projects within the next week or so. 1 comments
Arrived back home in Denver about 45 minutes ago after a leisurely drive back from Hays. Wanna say hey to Chris Spears who was on his way from Denver to Little Rock and met me for lunch in Goodland. Chris and I have been trying to meet up here in Denver for months, so it figures we do lunch 200 miles out of town! LOL
Lots to do web-wise, most of which should be covered tomorrow and up by weekend's end. The next chance for chasing looks to be mid to late next week. No real details on that other than a look at the GFS and its consistancy with the system. Will narrow down more details later in the weekend into early next week. Wednesday looks like a high plains day; Thursday looks like the biggie. More on that later. 0 comments
Arrived safely in Hays after a hairy encounter with the ongoing tornado-warned cell. I emptied the van after check in, grabbed a dinner at Wendy's, and have changed from the dusty pants and jersey to a wife-beater and sweats. Happy I elected to pass on the 5 hour drive back to Denver tonight in exchange for a another night's rest in the exact same hotel I bunked down at last night.
No amount of wishcasting in the world was going to save the southern target, and the clearing skies along with the newly warned Goodland storm made us bolt back to the west where I intercepted the cell just to the southeast of Colby as the first tornado warning was issued.
Approaching the cell on Hwy 24 from the east.
I stayed with the cell through Hill City and finally abandoned it on KS-18 and stopped in Hays for the night.
Near Rexford, I observed a wall cloud and a pair of dust columns that looked suspicious. I ended up in strong RFD and followed Roger Hill back to US Hwy 24 on a series of dirt roads that were being taken out by the very strong RFD winds.
The artsy-fartsy shots of the day as I hit US Hwy 83 southwest of Rexford.
Wall cloud about a mile north of Rexford.
Continued east on Hwy 24 stopping a few times to snap some structure shots before blasting into Hill City for the sole purpose of beating someone to the car washes. Was hearing reports of softball hail and thought it would be better to observe that UNDER a shelter. The storm, which was moving southeast at the time, turned more easterly and stayed primarily north of town. Meanwhile, sirens were blasting and emergency crews driving through the neighborhoods on their loud speakers instructing residents to take cover.
Where I took shelter in hopes to cach the core, but it remained north and all I saw was quarter-sized hail and high winds.
Continued east on Hwy 24 where I did battle with a helacious core. Hail up to golfball size and winds easily approaching the 70mph mark hammered me near Bogue, Kansas. I got just east of there and stopped to turn around when the wind driven rain and hail were becoming too much. I let the hell pass and went back to Hwy 18 where I followed along with the storm through Palco and Plainville before electing to call it a night and head to Hays.
I was hearing reports of possible tornadoes, and as I write this, the thing is still warned for tornadoes, but the after dark experience and insanity it brought was good enough for me. I also elected to save me the five hours of drive time back home and crash out for the night here.
All-in-all, an exciting chase to be had. The move to stay further west and split the north/south difference paid off dividends. After we left Ness City and got to Wakeeney, I was a bit frustrated that the southern target wasn't going to go. The storms that fired were in pretty weak SE flow, so I wasn't overly impressed with the tornado chances. In the end, it turned out very well as it was certainly the storm of the day.
Hope for good daytime convection slipping as storms in extreme NW Kansas go. Leaving Wakeeney for Oakley and points north as this may be the only shot. Clear skies over rest of target area hint that the southern target won't happen. 0 comments
Still chillin east of Ness City. Dryline through Dodge City and we may back to Hwy 283 and north a bit from there. A definite east shift in the next 30 minutes. 0 comments
Sitting on a rural road off K-96 about 5 miles east of Ness City just passing time listening to the nearby cows moo at us. We left Hays, probably more out of bordom, and ventured out this direction. I figure a gradual return back to the east to Hwy 283 and perhaps points north. I'm not 100% sold on the southern extent of today regardless of the RUC's forecast to break out a line of supercells in central Oklahoma at 0z. That seems a bit odd to me, but none-the-less, we're keeping the southern option open.
My thoughts right now are to venture back to the east and get to Hwy 283 and perhaps even back to I-70. I don't want to completely rule out things down here while at the same time I'm more hopeful for a northern play today. One thing I am certain is we will be moving east as we officially hold the furthest west award right now. LOL 0 comments
It's 8 o'clock in the morning and I am happy to say I do not have to move for most of the morning. Most of the models are showing the most favorable area from roughly I-70 north and west of a Russell to Kearney line after 0z (7:00pm CDT). The better shear values arrive after 0z and the trend has been to back it further west to where those that went home to Denver last night could easily make the venture back out and be out in time. Five hours from Denver gets you to the hotel I am hunkered down at.
It will definitely be a later show, there is no real question about that. The biggest concern for the day will be exactly how do I spend it? I literally have to drive maybe 100 miles in any direction, and I'm afraid that's micro-adjusting at this point. I do think a move west and possibly north, perhaps to near the Hill City or Oberlin area by 4pm is in the cards this evening.
There is also a southern play for today, and not like a Nebraska to Texas play; southern Kansas near the Oklahoma border. Cap issues are concern down there, but its a very close secondary target that if looks really juicy and likely things will go, it wouldn't take much to get down there assuming you've left yourself with a couple hours to make the drive.
With all that said and my look at things this morning, I am very content with my current position and probably will not venture too far from here anytime soon. This will give me a few hours to organize my ride a bit and try and fix my CB and dash cam. I won't worry about making any moves til at least 2pm. And that works just fine with me cause Hays has it! :o) 0 comments
Made it safely to the Best Western in Hays, Kansas where we will enjoy a full night's sleep. I'm with Ryan Shepard and "Skinner" who came out with me after meeting with them outside Idalia after our hail storm.
Tomorrow looks good and has the potential to be a very big event, mainly after dark. With no obligations on Friday, I am free to chase late into the night if need be. That'll be helped by the fact we can sleep in and take our time getting out in the morning. We're basically on the western edge of the Day 2 Moderate risk which covers just about the entire eastern 2/3 of Kansas.
I only took a handful of stills as the weather didn't provide many great photo ops. The most exciting part of the day, the hailstorm, was all in video and barely worth stills.
Where I filled up in Seibert on I-70 for $3.57 a gallon. It keeps getting worse.
Following Michael Carlson to Yuma with the cu-field going up to our immediate east.
The mammatus of our dying cells looking east from Goodland, Kansas.
Will update again in the morning after we get a look at things... may stay up the extra hour or so to see what SPC's initial thoughts on tomorrow are, but at the same time, I'd rather catch some Zs.
On I-70 EB in Colby heading for the Hays, KS Best Western for the night after breaking in Colorado in the 2008 season. Intercepted a tornado-warned cell near Idalia on Hwy 385 and took on a core of quarter-size hail. Strong cold outflow from the SW Kansas storms did us in as it dropped temps into the low to mid 60s. My choice to flip back north was probably the better choice for my situation as the reported tornadoes were way south and early and I would have never made it in time. The upshot is I wake up in tomorrow's target area.
Chased w/ Michael & Eric Carlson, Jon Van de Grift (welcome to 2008 chase), and briefly with Ed Grubb. Caravaning to Hays with Skinner and Shepard while relaxing to the smooth jazz of Chris Camozzi.
More when I get settled. Should be in Hays and checked in before 11pm CDT. 0 comments
Met up with Michael Carlson who may or may not realize I'm behind him. Either way, heading in the direction of Wray on Hwy 34 under a tornado watch! 0 comments
Sitting in Campo, CO right now and am seriously giving consideration to returning northward to northeast Colorado where dews are already in the upper 40s. With the crap ongoing in Texas right now, I think the cleaner air, while not as unstable, is definitely further north. Based on my analysis here on the side of US 287, I am in agreement that the 10% may be a very late show if at all. Excellent moisture resides down there, but is it too much? Seems to be a common theme with setups down there so far this year as storms went HP fairly quick and made for interesting chase scenarios.
The tri-state play, while not as promising, I think holds better photographic potential and low-end tornado potential. And since I've already driven to the OK/CO border, I can safely say it is not a distance factor with me. I just have a feeling that between the recovery time needed for the southern target plus the relatively close T/TD spreads, that it may be a messy chase. Even with the lower tornado potential in Colorado, I think better storms will be up there...
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I'm turning around... Im just not sold on TX right now... 1 comments
Funny to see the pre-recorded teases on 7News in Lamar where I am sitting in the weather center at the same time I'm sitting on my bed in the Super 8 in Lamar. See, I can be two places at once! Which I wish were true for tomorrow cause I'd have one of me in Texas and the other of me in northeast Colorado.
Quick look at things has me shaking my head. Its becoming a year where you watch the models long enough to know what day to chase and just grab your balls and go. With that said, some forecasts are showing the best area for tornadoes clear down on I-20. A repeat of April 9 is shaping up. And that doesn't thrill me terribly much. Not only is that horribly far south, it puts me way out of position for Thursday, which doesn't look terribly great, but I'd rather not put all my eggs in one basket of tomorrow, especially since I am only a couple hours south of a secondary target here in Colorado.
So with that said, no committments to uphold from here til morning. I have a 7:15am wake-up call and will give things the once-over and decide what to do with myself. If the Texas target does indeed hold out to be I-20, the distance alone will turn me away from that assuming Thursday remains on the radar. If Thursday drops off, I'll marathon it down to I-20 and make the play. Otherwise, I back up north and aim for a Limon to Sterling line and see what takes off. For what its worth, the 7News Futurecast hammered out a good sized storm developing east of Greeley and moving through Sterling into southwest Nebraska from roughly 4pm on out. If that holds true, those few that hang around up here may get treated. And depending on what I see in the morning, I may be one of the few instead of the many.
Alex Lamers of Stormtrack summed it up pretty well by saying this in the forecast discussion thread...
"I'm glad I'm not able to chase...I'd be pulling my hair out right now."
While I haven't reached that point yet, one thing I am certain is I am glad I elected to stop here... Dalhart would've been painful. But I may have given up the Texas play by doing this, so we'll see. Either way, my Texas target needs to lie west of a Lubbock to Childress line, otherwise I backtrack north.
Re-evaluating the situation and may make the 200 mile jog down to Lamar tonight as I am wondering whether the Colorado play will be the better one. Models are showing two areas of interest; northeast Colorado between I-70 and I-76, east of a Limon to Sterling line; and the other around the Childress, TX area.
My mode of thinking is as follows. Denver to Dalhart is 350 miles leaving 200 to Childress. Denver to Lamar is 200 miles leaving 350 to Childress. However, the overshoot from Lamar is less than TX, and if I end up chasing TX, I drive the same mileage. If I drive to TX tonight and turn around, I double my miles immediately. The 350 miles can easily be covered for either direction. TX is hinting at an earlier show, which could result in bad things later. The models, however, keep things quiet across eastern Colorado tomorrow evening with a possible show in the Nebraska panhandle.
Lamar serves several purposes. First, it cuts my drive time tonight to three hours, getting me in before 10pm MDT and allows me a full night's sleep with the added perk of being out the door early if need be. Lamar obviously serves as an in-between point that'll allow me access to both targets and gives me a bit of morning leeway to make a decision on one or the other. Also, if I end up chasing Colorado, my drive to Thursday gets shortened quite a bit. Not to mention that I cut off 300 extra miles of driving as I will not be overshooting a Colorado target. Bad signs are that I would end up cutting it very close if it is an early show.
Dalhart is also within range of both targets, but closer to the more potent target. If Texas is the play, I give myself some morning time before I would have to be on the move. However, its a long overshoot that could result in a wasted tank of gas if I end up turning back around. And if Texas is the play, I end up far from Thursday.
So with that, I am going to make the shorter trip to Lamar tonight and decide in the morning which looks better. Both the Amarillo and Denver afternoon forecast discussions are much quieter in terms of wording as opposed to this morning, the biggest change being in Denver. Pueblo, who was very wordy this morning, has yet to update, so we'll see what their mets are thinking for tomorrow. Regardless, with the choice between the two and saving a long stretch of driving, I am going to make Lamar my overnight stop tonight.
Nor big changes to the plans I laid out yesterday as all looks to be a go. The only difference is I'll be watching my back in Colorado in the event I see better potential listed up there. Morning AFDs from Pueblo and Denver were very talkative in terms of severe potential, both uttering tornadoes in their wording. SPC has hatched a narrow corridor from roughly the MT/WY border south through eastern Colorado, southwestern Kansas, and into the Texas panhandle where a 30% hatched went up. The hatched up north was for hail potential and brief tornado while down south, hail was the threat along with tornadoes, including the potential for isolate strong tornadoes.
Lots of ifs play into both areas and its a matter of how and when things come together. Seeing as I am splitting the difference between targets with tonight's drive to Dalhart, I will allow myself the option to play either target with plenty of time to decide in the early part of the day.
My van is at the shop getting the last of the big repairs for the season. Basically I am redoing the rear-end of the vehicle; shocks, brakes, the works. Stuff that was mentioned to me a couple months ago I figure I better do now. Also cleaning the fuel system and putting two new tires on the ride. She should be set for the year. Now sure when this afternoon it'll be finished, but it should be done by the time I slated myself to leave. Pending where in rush hour that is will determine whether I do the I-25 route through New Mexico or the Lamar route through the Oklahoma panhandle. Mileage is about the same either way, so I'm not figuring on much of a time difference. Its 350 whichever way you cut it. Remember I get to do battle with Denver and Colorado Springs, so time-wise, my quickest route may be through Lamar.
The other change is now with Thursday. SPC's Day 3 shows potential in Kansas and Nebraska and I have no reason to not chase that day if potential holds. I would return home Friday and only end up missing two scheduled hours. By working on campus this morning and the station this afternoon, I covered my usual Wednesday shifts and being back by my long Saturday shift would mean I only missed two hours and change of work. A good thing considering I may get to play twice in a row much closer to home.
So with that, things remain good for tomorrow. I should be on the road by 6pm MDT and arrive in Dalhart around midnight CDT. I shouldn't be hurried out the door in the morning. Its 200 miles to just about any target from there both north and south. Breakfast and a full night's sleep look promising in the morning. 0 comments
I got the go-ahead to chase on Wednesday and thus am a go! I am working an afternoon shift at the station tomorrow in exchange for Wednesday, thus I won't hit the road til after 6pm. With that, I may opt to camp out in the van overnight as opposed to making the entire 420 mile trip which would get me in after 2am CDT. Unless the target makes a dramatic shift east, I could get a full night's sleep and be on the road to AMA and beyond as soon as 8am. This also bodes well in the event the setup falls apart and leaves the northeast Colorado target within range just in case.
This will be a quick trip as I intend to be home by Thursday evening. The rest of the week and weekend look quiet enough where I have taken back my "vacation" days and will work as normal for those days. I'm keeping an eye on mid to late next week for another chase chance, but will focus on that next week after I clear my plate of Wednesday's chase. 0 comments
Wednesday has fallen into the picture in terms of chasing this week, and unfortunately that is the LAST day I was slated to work this week before my mini-vacation. However, I am going to try and barter my way free to head down to the panhandles for Wednesday. The models as of now looks pretty good for Wednesday, but as has been the cae over the last few setups, things fell apart the morning of for an event that performed much less than what was forecasted 24 or so hours out. We'll see if the models can keep things consistent and pan Wednesday out a bit better.
The weather here in Denver looks quiet on Wednesday, so there won't be much to leave behind. I'll update again later this afternoon or tonight once I throw my proposal out and see what I can work out. Beyond Wednesday, things return to a fairly quiet pattern into next week. I may reconsider my extended break with nothing going on over the weekend. More later... 1 comments
Back on the Friday before the chaser convention, myself, Doug, Neva, Chris, and Jason all went up to Breckenridge, Colorado to do some snow mobiling at with Good Times Adventures. This is the second time we've snow mobiled with them. Yesterday, an explosion destroyed the main office seriosly injuring one person. The story can be found on the 7News website. Just one of those strange things you hear about and go "damn".
In chasing news, still looking at a string of days off beginning with Thursday. There is nothing earth-shattering in the models for any time during that period, but with the time off, I'll be keeping a watchful eye on things. I could be on the road if need be as early as Wednesday evening and not have to be back until Tuesday night. As the time period closes in, I'll hopefully see a shot or two at chasing.
Lastly, and hard to believe its been this long already, but 9 years ago today, two gunmen opened fire in a Littleton High School killing 13 people. At 11:21am this morning, a moment of silence in rememberence of those at Columbine High School will be observed... never forgotten... 0 comments
So my chase schedule for the remainder of the season has been finalized..
From now through May 12, I am on spot-chase due to classes. I have a final on Monday the 12th in the evening and that'll officially wrap up my semester. I am suppose to present my final project in the other class on Friday, May 9, so barring a chase that day, that should wrap up my semester.
From May 13th (Tuesday) through May 24 (Saturday), I am on my own to chase as I please. I return to Denver on May 25 to jump on board with Tim Samaras and crew for the rest of May and through the month of June.
After that project ends, I will take July and bum around... chase locally and work part-time. On July 28, I begin a lengthy road trip back to Ohio where I'll spend the first weekend in August with my Dad at the Pro Football Hall of Fame weekend in Canton to watch Art Monk and Darrell Green get inducted. I'm still working out getting to the HOF game between the Skins and Colts. I'll take my time out and back and return home the weekend before the Fall semester starts and get prepared for my second to LAST semester of my college career.
So with that, my annual May-a-thon will begin on May 13th with two phases; my solo two weeks going til the 24th, and my time with Samaras and crew for the remainder of the season!
It all begins in a few weeks! Spot chases til then will pass the time! Also going to try live-streaming coming on an upcoming chase. The new Logitech QuickCam Pro 9000 will run on selected chases through the season. This, and my live chase, will probably not be active during my stint with Samaras. More on all that later! 0 comments
Replacing the windshield and wipers. Also wrapping up the last of the van's work and she'll be 100 percent for the thick of the 2008 season. 0 comments
A quick update this morning before I wrap up the dressings on this morning's presentation I am giving. Again, made it home safely last night after a couple small battles with snow north of Trinidad and over the Palmer Divide. Neither were all that earth-shaking and will all but be forgotten by the end of today. Mileage for the trip was 1,717 which brings me to 10,538 for the season. I bagged my third tornado of the season bringing the lifetime total to 77, only 23 away from the 100 mark.
A quiet string of days upcoming to which I happily welcome. There is talk of the potential for the first high plains chase of the season next week, but I'll get more excited about that if winds shift to the point where they are not blocking the Gulf flow back into the central US. Also because it would be so much closer to home, I don't even have to concern myself with it at this point. While I've enjoyed the hell out of driving to Texas once a week for the last month and am given great hope by the fact the season is exactly where its suppose to be right now, I am looking forward to a setup that doesn't require cross-country travel and is much closer to home. Once May gets here and I wrap up the semester, the Denver-leash is gone and I'll happily go anywhere for as long as I want. But if climatology is correct, the gradual shift north and westward should begin and southern Kansas, the entire region of the TX/OK panhandles, and possibly even southeastern Colorado should start to come into play within a couple of weeks.
As for yesterday, certainly not the historic outbreak progged by the models. That's been the trend of the season so far is the highly overforecasted events playing out to be pretty tame compared to how they went in looking. For the record, overforecasting is not meant at any one entity or person; I've gone out on most so I am as guilty as anyone else. With that said, I am certainly okay with bailing on chasing Thursday out east even as a few tornadoes were reported. While I would love to say my reasons for not chasing were Meteorological, I just had too much to do here and didn't want to chance not making it back in time. Fortunately, like with Monday, it worked out. Both Monday and Thursday I expected much more than what happened, so there is no meteorological excuse as to why I didn't chase either.
With no chase plans in the works and little to speak of in the chasing world, things should be quiet over the next 5 days. Aside from a chase report covering Wednesday's mess, there's not much going on. Tuesday I replace the windshield and may move forward with a few other vehicle repairs, but aside from that, going to enjoy being home for a few days. 0 comments
Sitting at the Vernon, Texas Best Western where I have decided to bunk down for the night. As tempting as the biggest tornado outbreak of the year will be, I have elected to save myself and return home tomorrow. I have a presentation on Friday morning that I absolutely cannot miss. That combined with the snowstorm over Colorado that could hose me if I tried to fly home Friday morning, I decided it would be best to head home. Crazy storm speeds and unfavorable terrain will make it a bit easier to pass on the setup. I have no question tomorrow will be a HIGH RISK from SPC, but its only April and I'm doing pretty well so far.
A recap from today... I saw at least one tornado northeast of Abilene as confirmed by several spotters and chasers. It was brief, but my vantage point looking north/northwest saw a white funnel with a debris swirl under it. I heard reports of ground circulation from other chasers via the HAM at this time. Later on the storm, I put myself under some quarter sized hail. We also documented heavy damage in Breckenridge from a possible tornado that hit the southern and eastern sides of the town. Flood waters washed over TX-199 west of Joplin close to dark, and I got hit with a heavy rainer and pea-sized hail moments ago here in Vernon.
Tomorrow will be a travel day back home to which I am hopeful the snow doesn't make a mess of the trip. Fortunately it looks as if the worst will remain over the northeastern Plains, thus my foothill drive oughta be fairly good. No hurry to get back, so I'll get some sleep tonight.
Pictures and vid caps to come later. Want to wind down and catch some Zs. Verne returned to Amarillo and I elected not to make the extra 200 mile trip. Not to mention I am being treated to another loud storm even as we speak!
Going to stay overnight in Vernon, TX after deciding not to chase tomorrow. Vernon being clobbered with a huge storm right now. I'm 20 miles southeast of town. 1 comments
Saw my third tornado of the season north of Abilene bout 345pm. It was a brief dust whirl under a white funnel. Shooting east on 20 and will reintercept storm near Breckenridge, TX. 1 comments
Verne and I at Sweetwater Taco Bell after a run for the border. Have decided to hang here as PDS Tornado Watch has just gone up for the area. 2 comments
Made it safely to Amarillo where I am bunked down at Verne's place. I have lost track of the number of nights I have been down here already! Definitely shaping up to be a more normal year as I believe (off the top of my head) I had already chased Kansas and Nebraska by this time the last couple of years. Something about this season is giving me hope for the normal peak to actually be a peak this year. I've been saying it for several months now, but I think May will be interesting.
Tomorrow is interesting... obviously. The mess of questions remains as to what will unfold tomorrow, and NWS Norman has worded things very heavily in a recent AFD...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1000 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008
DEVELOPING NEGATIVE-TILT TROF OUT W... WITH UPSTREAM 160-KT JET MAX DIGGING INTO ITS BACK SIDE... HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SET OFF A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WED-THU AS IT SWINGS FROM TX TOWARD THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. DEPTH AND QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CRUCIAL... ESPECIALLY AS FAR N AND NW AS OUR CWA WHERE THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF WORK TO BE DONE IN TERMS OF LL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. IF INSTABILITY BECOMES ADEQUATE... THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SETUP SUGGESTS THAT THIS ONE COULD RIVAL SOME OF THE MORE NOTORIOUS APRIL OUTBREAKS OF THE LAST SEVERAL DECADES.
That last line will grab anyone attention. While I'm not 100% sure I would buy into that, nor would I buy into the fact that Oklahoma is a viable target just yet, its certainly an ear-perker. As has been mentioned across chaser forecasts, the biggest concern with tomorrow is early convection that fires and how that will play into things later on. The dryline/triple point is going to be the stage or things tomorrow, but there's a very high chance early grungy crap will form and make a mess of things tomorrow. Regardless, severe weather is definitely in the cards and we'll see exactly how close to the last line of the OUN discussion as the day wears on.
No targets or a real forecast as I haven't looked at anything since this morning, but I will check things out when I wake up. I feel a good night's sleep is definitely in order before making the day tomorrow. Chris Collura is in Dallas and will hopefully meet us at some point early in the afternoon.
More on things tomorrow, but it definitely looks as if this could be the big one up til this point in the season. 0 comments
A beautiful storm went up about 4 o'clock this afternoon, quickly went severe, then made a nearly 90 degree turn from it original east/northeast path to take direct aim at Wichita Falls. For about 90 minutes, I was having flashbacks to March 28 where I stayed back as a result of classes and watched the outbreak of the year occur. This time, the class to which I stayed behind for was cancelled by noon, and I was watching that storm thinking I just gav eup the day. About 91 minutes later, a capping inversion east of the dryline squashed the cell and pretty well ended all hope for daytime tornatic storms. Most chasers were heading home by sunset.
It turned out to be the storm of the day. Several chasers are reporting a brief tornado touchdown near Electra, northwest of Wichita Falls on Hwy 287, but many others who were on the storm reported seeing nothing. Pictures are expected soon, so we'll see if that were the case. Many chasers stayed in their northern targets near Lawton and I was amazed at the will power of them as I was watching the radar display a textbook hook echo and the hard right turn. Conditions all the way up and down the dryline indicated the potential for a big day, so patience was certainly warranted. But my experience, namely April 13 of last year, has said to me sometimes the early storm is the one. With that in my head, I likely would've taken off down I-44 for the Falls and taken my chances. In this case, that would've been the better play. However, I have also learned going after the first storm is a 50.50 venture. I easily could've been wrong. My only reason for e-chasing that storm from Lawton was the extremely incredible radar signature. I easily would've forgotten everything else.
As for my plans for midweek, all things still look good to play in west-central Texas on Wednesday. A side bit of excellent good news is good friend and chaser, Chris Collura, dropped us an email saying he would be chasing Wednesday and Thursday. Chris, who is always a blast to chase with, wrapped up his obligations for the week and will be spot chasing this event. Assuming everything falls into place, I intend to make every effort to meet up with him. Verne and I will be coming from Amarillo Wednesday as I plan to meet him at his place down there tomorrow night. Thursday remains in the cards, and I'll let it be a game-time decision. If I do play Thursday, I need to arrange myself a flight home for my Friday morning class. I'm going to let Wednesday play itself out and decide from that point what to do about Thursday.
I have some homework and projects I want to wrap up, but will keep tabs on things, especially in the morning. I still want to get my van in for some work before I head down, so I don't anticipate hitting the road til almost noon mountain time. No big hurry getting out of here tomorrow as all the severe weather will be well east of here and of no concern to me.
First time in a while I've said I will not be chasing a decent-looking event. With me being gone most of last week and a good setup shaping up for later this week, I have decided to sit this one out. I have an evening class tonight I need to attend as well as some vehicle maintenance I want to do tomorrow morning before I head down to Texas for the next couple of days. Wednesday is the day of interest, but a slower solution on a couple ensembles has me watching Thursday for potential as well. However, I have a project presentation at 10am Friday morning, so if Thursday does come into play, I will need to do a marathon back home to make it back in time. Right now, my plan is to use Thursday as my return day home.
As for today, this is certainly not a situation to where I think crap will happen. Given the conditions today, I think supercells are likely and the potential for tornadoes is definitely higher than any day we saw last week. The big question of the day is whether enough moisture and it be deep enough to support tornatic storms. SPC has drawn a SLIGHT so far, but should upgrade to moderate once mesoscale conditions, particularly along the warm front, can be fine tuned. Those areas will see a heightened tornado risk. Latest surface obs are showing 30s and 40s dews across Oklahoma right now with mid 50s through most of central Texas. Dews in the 60s exist south of DFW, but those should begin to advect northward with the front through the day (my analysis has the front just south of the Red River). The surface flow through central Texas is coming from a good direction, but most of it less than 10kts. So the question as to whether the return flow will be fast enough beckons the answer. Everything else in terms of shear and dynamics looks to be in place.
Verne Carlson is out today and is running a live webcam which you can view here. I have gone back and forth with the idea of a webcam, and seeing as I am sidelining myself today, I'll see one in action that'll sway me either way. I do have an ActionCam on the way that according to USPS tracking is here in Denver. I'm hopeful that gets delivered today and I can put it to use when I head out Wednesday.
As for Wednesday, my morning looks at the runs keeps me eager and excited about the prospects. Am keeping tabs of things as of now, but plan to hit the road late morning to early afternoon upon completion of an oil change, tire balance/rotation, air filter replacement, and my 10-day transmission check. Once those items are wrapped up, I'll hit the road for Amarillo where I'll meet up with Verne and company for the midweek setup. At this point, I am going to use Thursday as a return-to-Denver day, but pending the system's overall speed and evolution, Thursday may also come into play and I'll start figuring in flight options back for class Friday.
Beyond this week, things looks quiet until the very end of the GFS where they show a system moving into the region from the northwest. The very last image hints at a potent system that may bring the chance at Denver's biggest snowstorm of the season. Being it is 10 days out and will likely change a dozen times before then, its nothing to hang my hat on. Regardless, a period of peace for chasers after the passage of this week's system. 0 comments
At 4:00, one of the most priceless raw moments of chasing I have seen in quite some time. To a normal human being, its a sick thing. To us, its a prize-worthy moment.
Back on March 30, I began a hailacious week of chasing in my first of several significant hailstorms. The one on this day being the biggest and baddest of the three, but all of them big yucks for a week that lacked tornadoes.
When Carl and I pulled into El Reno that night, I had managed to smash my windshield and pepper the hood and the roof with enough dents to make my vehicle pass for a 10-year veteran.
While I did shoot video, I posted Michael's (with permission) because it showed a raw emotion I have seldom seen before. One I can most certainly relate to. I have always had a major facination with hail stemming back to my days in Ohio. Back then, it was one of the rare forms of severe weather I would see. And even then, it was quite rare. Back in 2006, I put myself in the biggest hailstorm I have lived through to date. I was quite proud of doing such a thing. Unfortunately the circumstances surrounding that episode didn't bode well in the eyes of the chasing do-gooders. And to this day when its my turn to step through the flames, this is usually the incident they bring up. I certainly wasn't as ambitious then as I was last week, but needless to say, the end result was pretty much the same.
So that brings me to the last week in which I parked myself under three significant (2 inch or greater) hailstorms. The first was the pounding one in Michael's video and the one that did most of the damage to my ride. Both Michael and I were happy as kids on Christmas morning when that storm was all said and done. Our brief meet-up after the storm had us both grinning from ear-to-ear. Not having seen his video at this point, I wasn't completely aware how proud he was. Even talking to Verne later that night, I could hear a proud father mention how thrilled Michael was to have broken in his Subaru.
Of course, the hail continued over the next two chases as I got hammered the following day in southeast Oklahoma, then again on the most recent chase in northern Texas. That time, it was Ed's turn to take the brunt of the storm as he smashed the windshield of his truck. Obviously we were not the only ones to get hammered this week as countless other chasers took damage to their own vehicles in the hail. Whether they had the fun Michael and I did is a completely different story, but regardless, Mother Nature was out for vengence last week.
Why I'm writing this, I really don't know. Perhaps the late hour and not ready to sleep has something to do with it. Perhaps it was the great laugh I got out of that 10 seconds of YouTube footage. I truely don't know. What I do know is there were at least two of us who walked away from last week with giant smiles and awesome chasing memories at the expense of the trusty vehicles to which bore the brunt of the chaos. But for us, that is exactly why we bought these vehicles. To take them around the alley and EXPERIENCE the weather. I know if my ride were human, she'd be sporting flashy band-aids with big smiley faces on them. Extreme sports folks take their injuries as trophies of their experiences. Hail dents for most chasers as the same thing. Aside from the windshield replacement, the dents will remain as part of White Lightning's chase character. I'm sure Michael will do the same as many chasers before us already have.
While the hail is an exciting part of chasing, it certainly holds its dangers and idiocies. While its pretty well impossible to tell whether a storm is going to drop baseballs or volleyballs, there is a lot of thought involved before I go sample a core. If a storm is looking as if a tornado may pop, I am not about to drive blindly into it. These three storms were well covered via HAM radio and scanners, so it was fairly evident of what was beneath them. Also worth noting is most of the largest hail reported that day came from the same storms at times and places we just dared not enter. While this entry may portray wrecklessness on the part of myself, Michael, and other core-sampling chasers, its worth noting that this is not a blind stunt we pull. We normally have a very good idea of what to expect when we get in there and usually will always pull out if things looks to be getting too dangerous. I use the term "sampling" as opposed to "punching" as we are going in to document specifically the hail. Punching is a term used mainly for blind core-diving or trying to get position on a storm when there is no other avenue. In all three storms last week, I reported the findings of our sampling. I also reported hail I found left behind from cores that passed ahead of me. I love hail; its an amazing thing when you think about its formation. Its intense, facinating, and an awe-inspiring thing everytime I see it. If I know I am not going to bad a twister, I look to put the chase on ice. Hail has always been and will always be a close second to the tornado for me.
Sure, there weren't any real tornadoes this week. And I know there was a general feeling of disappointment among many because of that. But you would have never guessed looking into our faces just before sunset last Sunday. I wish I have given half the reaction Michael did. A truely priceless moment of chasing and a reminder that its not always the tornado that we seek.
I have completed chase logs from the transmission bust on March 17th, then did the hail logs from the past week. They are linked via the images below...
March 17, 2008
March 30, 2008
March 31, 2008
April 3, 2008
Plans still in the works for chasing again midweek, so after a day off tomorrow, I go back to work for a couple days before venturing out for Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Exact plans are still being hashed out, but it looks as if the midweek chase is a go at some point. Will bump up to MODERATE on my chase alert for the time being. 0 comments
A quick note to say I did make it home safely. I stopped off to see some friends in Parker before making the final leg of my trip home. I cannot recall the mileage off the top of my head, but I'm pretty sure I crossed the 100,000 career mile mark somewhere in Kansas earlier this afternoon. I'll have to figure out as close as I can where that would've taken place. Too tired to worry about it now. Am awaiting my clothes to finish in the washer so I can throw them in the dryer and do the same with myself in bed. I am hoping to steal a couple hours tomorrow at work to take care of some badly needed web updates, including at the very least, log-placeholders from this passed week. Definitely one for the record books in terms of hail I experienced.
As for next week, I am going to rule myself out of a Monday chase as I do need to get a day of work and classes in before I take off for another string of days. Wednesday is definitely doable and assuming a setup works itself into the mix, I have every intention of being there. Sunday I need to clean out and reorganize the van to get her back to shape. An oil change, tire rotation, and the 10-day transmission checkup are also all due. The windshield will probably wait a week or so before I replace it as I am still able to safely see and drive. Without question, it will need replaced as it did take a beating this week. My chase schedule for next week would allow me anytime Tuesday til class starts at 10am Friday.
More on all that and others later... the washer has finished and bed is calling. Goodnight from Denver where both my van and I are at the same time for the first time in quite a while... 0 comments
Just dropped Carl off in Tulsa and am making my way westwward on Hwy 412 where I have a Best Western bed awaiting me in Blackwell, OK. Will return my well peppered van and myself to Denver tomorrow. Nabbed my third significant hailstorm in four days. 2 comments
Sitting at a Texas historical plaque dubbed "Early Trails in Montague County" just outside the town of Ringgold. Figures to be a couple hours before the show gets going. 0 comments
Good morning from Lawton where the temperature and the dewpoint are the same at 55 degrees and the foggy cool conditions reflect that well. Woke up about an hour ago to find my van surrounded by two cop cars and a department of correctional facilities van.
No real explanation as to why such the circus, but a funny way to kick off the day. I tell ya, for what its worth, we've had some pretty good laughs down here.
Today definitely holds more hope than we went to bed with last night. Models are indicating that the surface low we were once dreading may be a bir more favorable for us than the WRF was giving last night. In fact, the entire setup looks better as a whole. Still not perfect and definitely not the bigtime show we went into yesterday thinking. Regardless, I'm glad we stuck around. Ed is due in within the hour and we'll begin to setup for the day. He graciously drove out hauling one of the middle row seats for my van to make room for Tom who is with us. However, with Jon not coming down, Tom may be able to hop in with Ed and we can pair up partners.
So that's it for right now. Disagreeing models this morning certainly add a sense of question to exactly how today will unfold, but a drop south into Texas will be in the cards for us later this morning. 2 comments
In our 5th hour of CSI-Miami in our high class Lawton hotel room, we have decided that the 0z GFS is our choice... we will live and die by the GooFuS issued at 0z. We have decided to throw out all the other models and go with that. Hahaha... yes, it is a wishcast. But its the most promising thing among the day's dread in the models. We're here and we're going to play it. The GooFuS it is! Off to bed now! LOL 0 comments
We opted to make the shorter trip to Lawton, Oklahoma to keep a northern target open if need be. All signs point to the Red River south into Texas, but with the NAM's 12z runs, we were thrown a curve ball which lead us here instead. Things aren't as promising on the latest runs and it lead to a few people backing out this afternoon. Ed Grubb is on his way down and will meet us either later tonight or early tomorrow. When I landed back in OKC, I met Carl with my van, then picked up Tom and hauled them down here to the Ramada in Lawton which has been its own adventure...
Carpet rolled against the wall.
One of the shelfing units falling apart and detached from the wall.
The bathroom counter falling apart.
Carl took pictures of exposed screws, wall sockets hanging off the wall, and loose plugs. Its a rather humerous story, but in the end, earned us a free roll-away and a 20% discount on the room. Definitely a fun side-story to the trip. The hotel manager was very quick to respond and was very good in rectifying the situation. Major kudos there for the quick resolution in customer satisfaction.
As for tomorrow's forecast, a lot of questions raised from the earlier runs and it will be interesting to see how things play out tomorrow. Models do develop a secondary surface low in northwest Texas along with a triple point with a dryline draped southward across west Texas. Outflow boundries will be a player in tomorrow's setup that will give areas of localized vorticity and the low will hopefully give us some backing winds near the triple point. CAPE should remain in place along with ample moisture in the area. Storms will almost be a certainty tomorrow, but the conditions for tornadoes will be questionable. Tomorrow's target and best chance for tornadoes along and near the Red River will be near the triple point and along the dryline, particularly in areas where outflow boundries intersect the dryline. Another area showing up is southern Missouri where we think tornadoes are a better bet in tomorrow setup with the northerly track of the main low. However, due to terrain issues and proximity to where we are now, we're going to stick with the southern target. 2 comments
No surprise to see the 45%-hatch Moderate risk for tomorrow across the Red River. I'm going to make this update brief as I want to get a couple quick things done before I hop a bus back to the airport and a plane back to OKC. My thinking is an overnight stay along Hwy 287 from Childress to Wichita Falls, even Wichita Falls is a good stop *cringe* if we so choose. My hope is our overnight stay is our target for tomorrow. I'll run a full update this evening as it looks like we'll be in early to settle in and rest for tomorrow's big big day.
A huge milestone in my chasing career will likely be hit at some point during tomorrow's chase, even as it may be on the way home. During the course of
