Sunday, April 29, 2007
The weather has been quiet over the last few days and will continue to do so through this week. We were expecting to break a record high today, but it wasn't to be as high clouds kept temps below 80 all day. No complaints here!
I just finished 22 pages of a research paper and put together over 30 slides talking about two of the four cases I wrote about. I'm thrilled to have that off my plate. Wednesday I present my case and have only finals to concern myself with beyond that.
Chase-wise, may get a weekend shot in prior to finals as the models had been hinting at a decent system moving through. Now its a bit mixed, but still bears watching. I'm free as soon as my class finishes on Wendesday with my only real obligation being my pair of finals on Tuesday.
Scattered small chances for storms here this week which may bode well for late evening action tomorrow or Wednesday. Particularly in the lightning department. We shall see how it pans out.
None-the-less, my big semester project has come to a close and I can happily enjoy the next week free to major projects and studying for my exams. In just over a week, I kick-off a stint of time which has me free to chase until the first weekend of July!!!
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Wednesday, April 25, 2007
I'm up a bit earlier than I'd like considering the day we put in yesterday, but well worth it! About to return to a normal schedule for a week and change as we go into the last few classes prior to finals week. Took a glance at the GFS and it shows a pretty boring pattern straight through into the first week of May. Honestly, I hope that is to be the case as I've done well in terms of chasing up to this point. Over 8,000 miles and 10 tornadoes scattered over 5 different days. A 5 of 9 average which I'll certainly take considering my usual luck in April.
First thing I checked this morning was the reports on Stormtrack for yesterday to see what people saw from afar. Our probe deployment with Tim obviously stuck us very close and I was curious to see how things look from afar. Good structure, but none of yesterday's tornado ever fully condensed. Lots of dusty whirls beneath nice funnels. I'll take 'em every time! We've give ourselves three distinct tornadoes which varies greatly from the reports of other chasers who claimed as little as one to as many as ten.
Also checked in to find ego wars and tons of bickering. I won't ignore the fact that there were a number of idiots on the roads over the last couple of days, but I'm not going to write an essay on chaser ethics as its a horse that's been beaten to death and then some. Unfortunately, when only one storm within 100 miles looks good, there will be every chasers within a 100 miles jockeying for position which leads to idiocies. Its unfortunately apparent that this issue will not be solved anytime soon, thus me complaining after every single chase is hardly worth it. You make due with what you can and deal with it. As for the ego wars, most of the content was deleted by the time I got around to it this morning, but I'm guessing it was related to either the road ethics or number of tornadoes. This year has already produced several incidents of chasers at each other's throats. Another sad reality of this hobby are the egotistical knuckleheads which seem to think this hobby was made soley for them. I think people have forgotten the main reason why we all are out there... or perhaps I'm too blind to see the main reason has changed to something else... in any case, its sad to see.
So with that out of my system, I'm going to get myself cleaned up and head off to campus to truck through the next couple of days before a quiet weekend here at home presents itself. I'll be carrying quite the glow from yesterday's adventures. Been a good early season for me... while the break in the pattern will be nice, I hope this is a sign of things to come for the real meat of the season!
I'm outtie for a few days... website updates will be slow, but should be completed soon. Attention now turns to finishing this research project! Ciao all!
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Made it home after quite the snowy adventure on I70 between Limon and Deer Trail. More updates later. Good night.
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Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Wow! The last couple of weeks have been full of unbelievable experiences, and today ranks right up there! Our group intercepted at least 3 distinctive tornadoes on a cell at the tail end of a line south of Ellsworth, Kansas. This day started in Pratt, dropped into Oklahoma where we raced east back to I-35 through Wakita and stopped for a lunch break at one of my favorite truck stops in tornado alley (Newton's truck stop). We emerged from lunch under the same crud we went in under, but not all hope was lost. We decided to get a head start heading home, but notice a sharpening dryline forming west of I-135. Storms started firing along this line and moved north/northeast. The first cell went tornado warned and showed little signs of organization as I gave my first of two live reports to KWCH on the day.
Tail-end Charlie! We shot south on K-14 through Lyons and Sterling and continued south beyond K-96. Along the way, the southern storm began its well documented life where the first tornado briefly touched down with a well defined funnel overhead. We continued south where we positioned ourselves to the immediate east of the meso where a second dusty tornado developed. It passed to our south as we deployed next to a yard full of goats and sheep.
The third tornado came about 15 minutes later as overhead circulation drew up a dusty swirl which crossed the road to our immediate west. The storm became outflow dominate shortly thereafter and we gave chase for a bit before parking on the side of the road, letting the chaser circus clear out and reveled in another successful venture!
I tried to tripod, I really did! LOL Having to keep in mind the threats from Doug and Bill to beat me with a tripod next time they saw me. Unfortunately I didn't get much of a chance to make that kind of effort as we were pretty hurried. So yeah, I did it again *ducks from incoming tripods*. LOL
These 3 tornadoes set me at 10 for the season already and continue to make this month my best April to date! This also has given me 4 successful tornado chases in a row which is something I've never done. In total, I'm 5 for 9 in tornado chases thus far in the season!
Wanted to update as I was occupied with other things today. Most of my early morning computer time was spent knocking out some more of my research project. Never really updated as my glances were few and the situation complicated. None-the-less, we're heading home on I-70 with an estimated return between 2am and 3am. Much better than the sunrise arrival we thought we'd have. We just breezed through Hays and I would expect at least one more fuel stop before getting back to Lakewood later tonight. However, the low is still spinning in western Kansas and may promote some scattered convection which may invite us to try and shoot some lightning. We'll see!
A final note of thanks to Tim Samaras who lead our expedition over the last two days. He certainly gave us quite an experience today! You should see how giddy we all were after the day! :o) WOW!
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Monday, April 23, 2007
Today's rope tornado near Protection, Kansas kept my streak going as I am now at 3-in-a-row with a solid chance at a 4 bagger going into tomorrow. We didn't score very well compared to others, but we scored none-the-less. This tornado marks my 6th thus far in April and has eclipsed the 2005 April count of 5. This was also my 7th tornado of the season making it one of my best at this point in the season.
Chase log is up although there isn't much to show... Jon's picture with Seymour McLean was probably the most oscar worthy from today.
http://www.tornadoeskick.com/logs070423.html
Waiting to nail down tomorrow's target, so I'll update again in the morning.
Goodnight from Pratt!
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What a change 12 hours makes! Today's target; eastern Colorado into southeastern Colorado. Plans to chase today are obviously set for those areas with an overnight stay in Kansas prior to tomorrow's adventure in south-central Kansas/north-central Oklahoma. SPC's modded eastern Colorado from roughly Siebert southeastward through just about all of western Kansas into the northeastern parts of the TX panhandle with a slight/5% tornado chance backing up to the front range here in Denver. Yesterday's afternono Day 2 was taking us into extreme southwest Kansas; obviously we'll play the home field today, no questions asked.
After this evening, the target remains the same for tomorrow, thus we'll pick up Verne in the field and drive out into Kansas someplace to position ourselves for another moderate risk day tomorrow along the I-35 cooridor.
With the extra time, I have some stuff I want to do prior to heading out, so off I go to take care of that. I'll update again midafternoon!
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Sunday, April 22, 2007
Thanks to Jon driving us back home, I was able to take this 6 hours to get some work done, including the posting and updating of my website from Saturday's chase. You can view the complete April 21, 2007 tornado chase log here.
Also included, and again thanks to Jon, were about 50 shots from Cactus, Texas which was leveled in the tornado which we caught 3rd on the night before it ran through town. I took over 250 images and posted about 50 of them, so those are on the log as well.
Passing through Colorado Springs right now, so within an hour of home. I'm dropping the gang off at the Park N Ride and will head home for a quick night's sleep before heading out again in the morning for a target of Southwest Kansas with Jon and Verne. We're planning on chasing Monday and Tuesday with the marathon trip home arriving back into town sometime very early morning on Wednesday before heading off to work/school later that day.
Beyond that, just surviving Wednesday and Thursday at work and school before enjoying a quiet weekend at home. God knows I could probably use it after this stretch. Will be nice to get home tonight before the next two days which look insane!
A final note, I want to wish my good buddies Amos and Eric my best wishes and am happy to hear they are okay after their adventure. I also want to wish them luck in their new careers as Eric is going into Floral Arrangment and Amos is going to run an Italian Bistro... in which case, I'll see you guys on Monday! LOL Glad you both are okay!
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Its funny to think I was in this hotel exactly a week ago today... however this trip ends 4 tornadoes higher than I left with last week making me three for three in Texas this year and 4 of my last 4 trips to Texas resulting in at least one tornado.
A lot of details still unfolding as a complicated and tough chase presented itself as storms moved north/northeast at hauling speeds over 40mph with several very damaging tornadoes. This wasn't my best photogenic day by any stretch and its very evident in video and stills, but we did get a decent tornado near Dumas shortly before that tornado morphed into the wedge which did heavy damage in Cactus.
In all, we scored 4 tornadoes... will have some work to do and may turn over the keys to one of my chasing partners tomorrow to do it as I am wiped... I'll post my chasing log tomorrow which will contain a mixture of shots from Jenn and Jon documenting this chase.
Goodnight from Amarillo!
Tornado #3 near Dumas, TX.
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Saturday, April 21, 2007
Sitting on the south side of I-40 at Conway, TX... strong southeast winds at our location with towers developing to our south... we should be in showtime within an hour.
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For once, its not a Best Western I'm moochin from... we're in Dumas, TX for the third time in a week chilling at the Days Inn and thinking we're going to hold here. RUC showing precip over AMA at 0z with little activity south which may be due to stronger cap. Our preference of being north makes it easier to catch stuff to our south as opposed to chasing north, so I think we'll hang here.
Stay tuned...
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We have arrived in Garden City pulling into the Red Baron Best Western shortly before 1am CDT. Target remains in the panhandle for tomorrow, but will check things out in the morning as there are several holes to be filled and keeping up with real-time data will be key for tomorrow. I'll update again in the morning as we get a fix on things...
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Friday, April 20, 2007
Final update before I vanish into my meeting...
Everything's a go for the trip... SPC's new Day 2 remains about the same but has heavily worded their discussion with a mention of possible significant tornadoes in the Lubbock area. They mention the potential for tornadoes in western Kansas, but it appears their focus is on the Texas panhandle as has been mine for the last few days. Concerns of a squall line developing remain the biggest question, but models seem pretty good in showing a window of at least a couple hours to get on isolated cells before things line out. Large hail, greater than baseballs, may also be possible with storms. Storm motions don't look too bad as the highest speed I've seen is under 40 in a north/northeast direction with an overall system movement slowly to the east.
Because of the slow eastward progression of the system, we should be able to remain in good position for most of the event, including after-dark chasing of lightning ahead of the line tomorrow which oughta be a show as good as the one we had in Texas last week. All plans as of now would include after-dark photography and perhaps a hail core or two.
The plan remains to meet at the PnR and be on the road as soon after 6 as possible. I'll get up there right about 6 to start getting set up and we'll leave as soon as the last person is packed in and ready to go. I've reserved a pair of rooms in Garden City, KS for us and Verne's crew whom we will likely meet this evening upon our arrival into Kansas. Hopefully a light show will be ongoing at this point to give us a chance to clean the dust from our cameras. We will work our way south to Garden City with an arrival between midnight and 2am.
I want to be on the road by 9am tomorrow morning in case we do go all the way to Lubbock which is 350 miles or approx. 5 hours. I would like to be at a logical target by 2pm to allow us a chance to micromove if needed to get into best position.
As the day moves into night and we turn focus from tornadoes to hail/lightning, we can position ourselves to shoot. The line which is expected to eventually form will have some punch and may be a good story to get into a bowed area in some town to sit and watch it roll through. We may get some interesting stuff. Pending our energy levels, we can decide tomorrow if we want to push it all the way home or drive back on Sunday. If we score, I'm sure we can all agree no hurry is needed as we'll probably want to get someplace and enjoy our finds!
I'll make at least a quick update once we arrive in Garden City tonight and perhaps once from the road if we get lucky enough to catch a lightning-producing cell. Busy few days upcoming, but discussion on next week will be quiet until this event passes...
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Skipped over the high alert and am going straight to severe as our departure will be this evening. Waiting to hear back from the gang this morning and will finalize all plans by noon. Right now, it looks as if we'll try and get on some lightning this evening before setting up overnight to get into position for tomorrow's moderate 45% hatched risk which sets up in a narrow corridor from the KS/NE border south into the Texas panhandle. My initial target still remains a Boise City, OK to Littlefield, TX line, probably on the northern side of that bubble as storms will be moving northeast tomorrow.
How we play tonight will be based upon ongoing convection as we head out. We'll either hit I-70 straight east into Goodland and play from there or shoot southeast out of Limon for SW Kansas. My hope is the southeast target as it plays us into tomorrow's target area; staying overnight in Lamar, Garden City, or even into the panhandles if we can make it that far. If nothing is going on or storms are moving north of I-70, we'll probably call Lamar or Garden City home for the night. Lamar to Plainview (on I-27 between AMA and LUB) is just under 320 miles as is Garden City, so either of those destinations will put us in at the right time. Estimate 5 hours drive time with one stop and I would plan on being on the road no later than 9am to arrive in a timely manner to our target area to await initiation.
I'll give a final update at noon before I leave campus for my meeting which goes til 5. After that, I have to run by 7News to drop off a couple of things, then off to meet the gang, get setup, and head out!
Stay tuned!
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Thursday, April 19, 2007
I thought I hit tomorrow pretty well with this email to Jon, so I thought it was valid to post here (edited to make sense since it was a direct reply). This was mainly to account for a chance for some lightning after dark and perhaps a shot or two of hail in a stronger cell. This is by no means making tomorrow into something more than it is as I am primarily concerned with getting out the day before the event and using storm chances on Friday to warrent sneaking out to get into position for Saturday. We can't depart DEN til after 6pm tomorrow anyway, so unless something is that close, we certainly aren't chasing to chase.
My hunch of a southern target for Saturday makes me want to be out there that morning as models as of late have been late with dragging the system further south (and slower) as was the case last week (you remember the blizzard that never came). Basically I want to avoid a Sept. 16 repeat where our target moved 50 miles north and we missed the action by 30 minutes because we left DEN that morning.
SPC has slapped a large area of 5% which extends from North Dakota south through Texas with a buldge in Colorado. Remember that means 5% severe and not just general thunderstorms (for lightning). Models are showing good severe parameters in place tomorrow minus a strong cap and little forcing. However, storms which can fire early in the day have a decent chance of being severe given those parameters. Those won't be in our range I don't think, but as the night wears on, several smaller MCS events may evolve as the low level jet is expected to increase storm coverage in some areas. As we depart tomorrow evening, we should be seeing storms someplace where we can start to head off. My assumption is arriving right around dark on one of these storms and off we go lightning shooting.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight go up tomorrow covering some part of that current 5% due to the parameters in place. They'll throw a see text mentioning severe being too isolated for a slight risk, but there may be a small area that warrents a slight for later in the evening.
My two cents... in any case, I'm pulling to be someplace east and south tomorrow night for Saturday.
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Moisture return and a squall line... the two big concerns evolving for Saturday... the things making it a slam dunk decision to chase; close to home on a Saturday! It would take the models eliminating all hopes of any severe weather to get me to back out of that, even if it is a squall line moving at mach 2. Actually, the line itself will be a slow mover; however the single storms will be flying northward along the line. I think better isolation chances remain to the south from the KS/OK border into the panhandles. We'll see what the next 24 hours holds.
After today, I will have worked 40 hours in 4 days in addition to classes and station work. All in hopes of making up hours lost last week for my Texas trip and hours I'm likely going to lose next week for what's looking like Tuesday's setup. The way I have it slated right, I'm on pace to have my normal work-load of hours even if I take Tuesday off to chase.
I am still coordinating the trip among the gang to see what their thoughts are. In hopes of getting some lightning and maybe a post-dark hailer, I'm hopeful to be on the road Friday night and stay out for Saturday. I think being in the field has its advantages seeing as the doubt in the setup is creeping in more and more. Leaving from Denver commits us to one target or another... being in the field, we have that extra few hours to see how things shape up before we have to move. Not to mention it makes extreme southern or northern targets a bit closer and less of a drive.
So with that said, a lot of questions regarding Saturday's setup. The forecast of things being further west offsets the setup itself in terms of whether or not to chase. Had this setup been in central Oklahoma, I'd be a bit more hesitant to call a chase on it. A target as close as eastern Colorado... I'll chase dust devils out there!
Stay tuned!
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Wednesday, April 18, 2007
The target of interest is moving towards lightning for this evening as storms are having a hard time firing over the mountains. Some cells showing up north of Ft. Collins, but them heading north with rush hour makes it an easy choice to stay put here in town. I've locked myself down on campus til 7p and will likely head home with an eye to the sky in case some storms fire as the dynamics start to make their presence felt. I may blow off the entire evening all together to catch up on my real world stuff!
I'm preparing as if I'll be gone for at least a day and change next week with Tuesday being my target day right now. Hard to set anything in concrete at this point, so will hold off on any major plan changes til a target day for next week's system becomes a bit more clear. I'm eyeing Tuesday as the big day; but would certainly pull for Monday as well. Beyond that, its a blur... won't even worry about it right now.
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This is my 800th blog post since I started over 2 years ago.. *insert applause here*
Saturday is a slam-dunk in terms of whether or not to chase... what'll come out of the day remains under big question, but the synoptic signs scream severe weather for somwhere. There's no question unless something horrible happens with the models that most of us, including myself, will be somewhere between Nebraska and Texas on Saturday. Plan is to leave Friday night for southwest Kansas; maybe getting an after dark lightning show on the way. Otherwise we will be in prime position for just about any target on Saturday.
Today may be a gas-passer type of day... Denver HWO has mentioned severe storms later this afternoon with hail and wind a primary threat. Dews are barely going to make 40 this afternoon which will make for some amazingly high bases and pretty well kill off any chance for tornado/landspout development. But hail and lightning after dark are high on the list for today, so a few of us are probably going to sneak out after work and head north out of town. Latest RUC analysis shows the best potential at 0z along I-25 from Denver north to Wyoming, so more than anything, we're positioning ourselves out of rush hour traffic. This setup reminds me a lot of the late April 2003 hail events ( April 28, April 29) where storms developed close to the foothills, dumped crazy amount of moderate-sized hail, then died as they moved east. I'm not expecting 6 inch accumulations, but I've seen this stuff before in April, so its worth heading out.
Nothing much to update beyond that... obviously I'll up my alert to moderate seeing as we're pretty much a go for Saturday (a good setup close by on a weekend). I'll update more as the next couple days moves on.
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Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Multiple chase days setting up for the weekend into early next week...
One can disect models to they're blue in the face, but this far out, I'm typically a look-and-see what's coming forecaster. Do the models show a system which could bring chasing weather? If so, I keep my eyes peeled. As mentioned yesterday, the weekend was holding on to some potential for chasable weather. Another system on the heels of that will introduce another chance to chase early next week.
I have class on Wendesday which I would have to be back for, so in theory, I could remain out through Tuesday assuming I was to be back by 4pm Wednesday. Exactly which days will come into play are still unknown at this time, however I think its safe to say Saturday is almost a certain player. The days surrounding Saturday remain unclear as with any system this far out, so its hard to start planning a road trip with the unknowns still so many.
None-the-less, stay tuned here as the week progresses... I won't be going anywhere til after my meeting on Friday, but it looks as if I will be on the road Friday evening regardless.
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Monday, April 16, 2007
Back to reality, at least for a few days... work, classes, an exam, and a meeting sit before me this week which will fall around my research project which is coming along slowly.
In the meantime, I've finished all website updates, including the addition of photos to my lightning and tornado sections as well as updated mileage (1270 for April 13 chase), index pages, and video listings. I should be caught up from this weekend now. Obviously, both the April 12 lightning chase and April 13 wedge chase are completed as well. A few additional shots will be included on the 13th chase at some point down the road (mainly trip home pics), but the guts of that chase are finalized.
There's another system setting up for the weekend. As the models were hinting at something last week, I insured myself the weekend off. My only obligation is a mandatory meeting from 1 to 5p on Friday here on campus which at this time doesn't look to interfere with any chase plans as all forecasts are pointing at a Saturday/Sunday time frame. I'll worry about plotting that out midweek as I have enough to catch-up on between now and then to keep me busy.
Our wedge tornado report from April 13 made SPC's storm reports a bit late due to the Baylor County Police department not relaying my report when I called it in. Amos and Eric attempted various other methods of getting the report relayed, but were unsuccessful and thus asked me to call it in. Obviously not having updated report numbers lead me straight to 9-1-1. A meteorologist at OUN contacted me the following day to confirm our catch. I informed him of my call and the return call I received back moments later and told him I wasn't sure what came of our report after that. He informed me that the report would be added and thus was put on the April 13 storm reports.
While I won't breath the fire I was tempted to throw over the weekend, I will mention that a member of the media publically posted in ST stating that he had never heard of the touchdown near Seymour and that we (those that witnessed) should at least make an attempt to call in the tornado so that he could do his job (he kindly reminded us that we needed to report this tornado). He posted this AFTER I discussed the 9-1-1 call and the report I made (which means we did report the tornado), thus failing to do his number ONE job in media which is to gather ALL information before broadcasting. Both Amos and I corrected his error and he was quick to take back his uninformed post. To set the record straight, I make every attempt to report what I see, especially in that circumstance where I felt as if we were the only people witnessing this event. Once I make that call, what happens to the report is out of my hands. While I appretiate his concern for the public and his media ratings, I would also appretiate he take a few seconds to read previous posts before calling us out like that. None of us are just spectators!
Lastly, a few people commented on my blog (Shelly and Angela); if you read this, please drop me an email as I have questions for you both. And lastly, Tammy, the main video was shot in Archer County... the Seymour shots were thrown in at the end for the flooding/hail additions. I just don't have the room on my templates to add the additional information, so the main part of the video gets the title. Thanks for the comments and its great to see people checking things out! Stay tuned!
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Sunday, April 15, 2007
Just passed 2000 miles since we left Denver on Wednesday night. Right now we are just a few miles south of Pueblo.
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Saturday, April 14, 2007
APRIL 13, 2007 STORM CHASE/TORNADO LOG
Its closing in on 2am and the adrenalin rush has finally ended... I'm about to crash hard... wanted to post that I've updated my chase log with today's needle-in-the-haystack chase which resulted in the wedge tornado near Seymour, TX this afternoon. We're staying at the other Best Western in Wichita Falls, TX right across the street from where we started the day. Going to split the drive back to Denver over the next couple of days and figure to be home sometime late afternoon on Sunday. Due to FTP issues, I cannot upload my video, but will do so upon my return home!
In the meantime, check out my chase log covering today's incredible experience! Great to chase with my good friends, Amos and Eric, as well as meet a handful of folks later in the evening! What an incredible day to wrap up an awesome trip!
Goodnight again from Wichita Falls!
APRIL 13, 2007 STORM CHASE/TORNADO LOG
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Friday, April 13, 2007
About 30 minutes out of Wichita Falls, TX and I've finally given my keys to someone else to allow me a chance to sit back and relax. We're in nirvana right now after today... what an incredible experience... I hope the video does justice cause its impossible to describe the shear luck that went into the events of this afternoon. We'll enjoy looking back at our videos at the hotel tonight.
Sobering however to listen to 1080AM as we rounded Ft. Worth as the tornatic storm went straight across both Ft. Worth and Dallas. Had that storm dropped a big tornado, the impact would've been unreal. That storm took the perfect path across the Metroplex and I know anyone in that area is counting their blessings over the bullet they dodged. There were reports of brief tornadoes, including on which did damage in the Ft. Worth area and injured a man. I haven't heard beyond the news as we listened in after calling the chase southwest of Ft. Worth. Fortunately, things were not as bad as they certainly could've been.
With that aside, we went to dinner at a Mexican resturant with several other chasers, including Eric and Amos who scored with us near Seymore. One of the best mexican dinners I have ever had (I cannot recall the name of the resturant off the top of my head). We said our goodbyes and here we are on the road facing nearly 700 miles to get back home. We will split the trip over the weekend and get home Sunday.
I'll be posting a full report later this evening once we get situated in Wichita Falls. Stay tuned for that.
Just in case you missed it..
3 Miles Southeast of Seymore, TX @ 2:40pm; called into 9-1-1, but thus far, no reports on SPC regarding this tornado, so not sure what happened to our report from there.
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Wedge tornado 3 miles SE of Seymore, TX at 2:40pm CDT.
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We're sitting in the lobby of our hotel in Wichita Falls planning our escape. Part of me says to sit right here and wait like a good dog; the other part of me wants to get south towards I-20 a bit and ride the warm front, moving north with it til storms fire.
Cloud cover evident by looking outside, visible shows thinning clouds to our southwest near I-20. Think we'll head south out of here along Hwy 281 towards the Mineral Wells/Stephenville area. However, also liking the models interpretation of a dryline buldge north of I-20 today, which makes Wichita Falls an interesting scenario.
Moisture, shear, dynamics; it all looks to be well in place today, guess the hard part is which way to go with it all! One could likely plead a convincing case for a variety of targets today, so choosing one over the other is a matter of flipping a coin I think. Hate to think I'll reduce myself to that, but wouldn't be surprised if I brought a quarter out as a last choice. None-the-less, it'll be an active day today with plenty of potential, so everyone be safe and happy hunting!
I'll update again in a couple of hours once we get a better grasp of what's going on. Lots of concerns and exitement building for the day, so we'll see how it all pans out. Stay tuned!
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Thursday, April 12, 2007
COMPLETE APRIL 12, 2007 STORM CHASE LOG CAN BE FOUND HERE!!!
Did the day-before-the-day chase today out of convenience to position for tomorrow... got exactly what I wanted; some good storm action during the day, and some awesome lightning at night!!! Chased with Tom Dulong and Jenn Brindley in the van and teamed up with Jay McCoy and Kanani Bright through Caprock Canyon State Park! Got on the big storm moving northeast from north of Plainview and followed it til it was swallowed by the southern cells as we got cored near Caprock Canyon. Yapped with Charles Edwards on our joyride through the Canyon before heading to Memphis on our way to our overnight stop in Wichita Falls!
COMPLETE APRIL 12, 2007 STORM CHASE LOG CAN BE FOUND HERE!!!
COMPLETE APRIL 12, 2007 STORM CHASE LOG CAN BE FOUND HERE!!!
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Sitting at... yes, you guessed it, a Best Western. This time in Plainview, TX just off I-27. We've met with Jay McCoy and Kanani Bright (formally known as Foster) and we're watching several towers go up to our southwest. Thinking we may get something going within the next hour. In the meantime, enjoying the view, company, and fact that we're not in Nebraska!!! Dews in the mid to upper 40s in Lubbock with a screamin' southeast wind, so we're hoping to get a nice storm going with hail off the bat. We're also looking very much forward to the chance at some high based lightning producers after dark.
Did some interior redesign on the van to remount the ham to allow for better seating up front with the laptop. Worked out really well. I've ordered additions to my proclip to give me a more sturdy mount. That's something we'll deal with later.
Storms starting to go up to our west now... getting prepared to move!
Stay tuned!
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Good morning from Amarillo! After a short, yet good night's sleep, the time has come to prepare for a couple days of running around. The warnings have been posted in Colorado which means we're now out here for the duration of the winter storm.
Potential today remains low, however as stated last night, the chance for LPs prior to dark and maybe some hail. After dark, things will get active and give us a shot at lightning. We're not holding out for too much today, but for an excuse to chase the day before the day, we'll certainly take anything we can get.
Tomorrow... oh tomorrow, that's the kicker for the week! A potentially major severe weather event is likely to unfold in northcentral and northeast Texas. SPC went with a 45% moderate hatched for NE Texas. My thoughts are staying in or near Wichita Falls overnight tonight and moving east towards a line north or south of Dallas pending the morning analysis. Storms will be hauling mega butt tomorrow, so it'll be interesting to see how things unfold, but SPC is hinting at two areas of storms; one east and one west, so perhaps getting on early eastern action and hanging for the western stuff.
The plan for today is to head south out of Amarillo for Plainview, maybe as far south as Lubbock and hang tight. The storm initiation should be west of us, maybe as far as eastern New Mexico and move northeast. I think we're as far east as we'll need to be, so today's biggest adjustment will be southerly. Before then, we'll run some errands here in town including the assembling of the van, then enjoy a liesurely drive south on I-27 to setup for today.
More later this afternoon!
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Won't make this long as it is 3am CDT, but we made it to our casa in Amarillo and would imagine very little movement for tomorrow's marginal setup. Still not expecting a whole lot with the moisture issues, however hail and after-dark lightning are my two main priorities. Friday remains complicated, but we'll chase our way east tomorrow and likely position along the Red River between Wichita Falls and Paris for Friday. More on that later as I am going to get some shut eye and milk the late check-out for tomorrow. Imagine a positioning mid-afternoon between Amarillo and Lubbock on I-27. Goodnight!
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Wednesday, April 11, 2007
We're chasing for Friday! We must be crazy! LOL Jenn and Tom are a couple of hearty folks; admist the doubt and craziness of the setup evolving over the next couple of days, they want to go! And you know me, I'll get out any chance I can get. We leave this evening for Amarillo! Here's the lunchtime synopsis...
THURSDAY:
Thursday is an on-the-way day we'd chase just to space out the driving to NE Texas AND get us out of Colorado before the snowstorm. The models are showing insane amounts of shear over the panhandles, but little moisture to work with. Obviously little moisture won't fuel storms to work with that shear. Moisture is expected to return later in the day towards nighttime which would intensify storms along with the approaching dynamics. This leads to the issue similar to my February chase where the best storms were expected to go after dark (obviously that wasn't the case, but we scored anyway). The risk of this setup is whether enough moisture can make it to the right areas in time, otherwise all the best chasing will be well after dark. Daytime modification to the air will slow moisture advection to the panhandles, thus am not expecting a miracle in that respect. We oughta see high-based supercells if storms are able to form early with a chance at plenty of lightning after dark. I'm personally not expecting a lot out of Thursday, but its just a matter of convienience for us.
FRIDAY:
Friday's setup still looks very impressive over northcentral and northeastern Texas. Ample moisture is progged by the models to return to the area with great shear and dynamics which would make for a good setup for severe weather. Obviously the play would be along the front near the triple point. Tornadoes seem likely on storms that can work with those features, especially with the moisture in place. The obvious issues with this system... storm speeds will be in the moderate to high range which will make for a lot of hustle. We'd need to be in position early or end up behind the action all day. Pending where Thursday's setup leads us, this would leave us with several hours of driving to position ourselves correctly for Friday. The other issue lies in the distance. Obviously its a long ways back home from here. The upshot to the distance is we'd certainly be good to get home as the snowstorm will be well out of the area and conditions improved, so we won't be hassling with that. We also have the option to split the trip home over two days if we so choose.
So with that said, I think we're going to head out anyway. I'll be home midafternoon and will get my gear packed and ready to go. Tom and Jenn should arrive at my place early evening and we'll catch the tail end of rush hour on outta here! I'll do the van setup tomorrow from AMA as we likely won't need anything for the trip down tonight.
Abyssinia!
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Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Jenn and Tom are confirmed for this marathon-style trip. Current plans are to leave tomorrow evening for Amarillo where I have us booked at a hotel down there. My current thoughts on a Thursday target remain fairly close, so we'll have ample time Thursday to do whatever prior to storm initiation. Thursday is a conditional day, mainly being played to setup for Friday, but latest thinking is Thursday may be an interesting sleeper day. Will be anxious to see how things evolve overnight.
Friday remains the day of interest and continues to show signs of sliding further west with each run. This bodes well for travel times as we won't be in Alabama by day's end Saturday. Friday looks to be a major severe weather outbreak with wind, hail, and tornadoes. My concerns are overnight/morning convection and storm speeds; however, the prospects of Friday look great. SPC gets a Day 3 Outlook on these tomorrow, so curiousity on their thoughts will be big come morning.
Jon is going to wait til morning before deciding whether to come out with us. I'm hopeful he does as both days look to have potential for good stuff. We'll see how it plays out over the next 24 hours.
Another update in the morning... I'm going to HIGH as planned departure is within 24 hours...
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Complicated situation evolving for the coming days, but the models have lined up with a Thurs/Fri setup as Saturday has pretty well become a nonfactor. Friday's setup has the potential to be a very big severe weather day as SPC has mentioned significant supercells with tornadoes possible. Thursday, the sleeper day-before-the-day, is now a 30% with mentioned tornadoes as well.
Without dragging out forecasting details, here's the plan as of now...
Wednesday: Leave that evening for Amarillo, TX and stay overnight. DEN to AMA approx 430 miles via I-25.
Thursday: Leave AMA for a target destination which at this point looks no more than 150/200 miles from AMA. Best chasing according to model forecast lies between the lines of Shamrock, TX to Marlow, OK and Turkey, TX to Bowie, TX (Red River Valley).
Friday: The big day; this looks to be a northeastern Texas, SW Oklahoma, SE Arkansas, NE Louisianna day. That seems far east, but isn't as bad when you're halfway there. Chasing this day would be one of those wild chases because of the area and the fact that models, SPC, and other Mets are already starting to get a bit excited. Jim Bishop on ST, a good weathercaster, started his post this morning with "Holly Crap"; so excited he put too many L's in the word. He's roped off an area from Eastern Texas northward to Missouri saying this setup "screams tornadoes". With what I've looked at in the models, this is a very intense situation and will likely be the outbreak of April so far this year (as if it has had anything to compare itself to). The upside are models are slowing this system down which does a couple things; first of all, it backs it further west. Second, it slows the overall eastward progression of the system.
Saturday: The long trip home, pending our motivation and scores, we certainly do not have to make the entire trip this day as we can easily do half Saturday and half Sunday. That's up for vote for later. In either case, we will be back before the end of the weekend...
SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL
This looks like an Eastern Plains snowstorm with 1 to 2 feet possible in areas across the Eastern Plains. The front range could see totals from 6 to 12 inches. NWS Denver has mentioned the potential for blizzard conditions and possibly blizzard watches for areas of the plains for this upcoming system. This would likely mean traveling in Eastern Colorado late Thursday and all day Friday would not be advised. Its because of that Friday remains a viable option considering how fast east this is. Conditions should quickly improve by Saturday and at the worst, be good to go Sunday.
I've been in touch with Jon, Jenn, and Tom about this system and most of us were hoping for a Fri/Sat setup... unfortunately that does not appear to be the case. Chasing Thursday gives us an excuse to chase Friday seeing as we'd normally not go for something that far east AND we'd likely be stuck out Friday due to the snowstorm anyway. With that in mind, I'd just assume kill Friday by chasing! But that's just me! Hahaha.
Obviously I'm shifting my alert as this will result in me having to be gone Thursday, however I'm good after that through Monday. I'll post again this afternoon once I've heard from the crew and see what's going down. Friday will make for a wild day, I think, so excitement is certainly looming!
More later!
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Saturday, April 07, 2007
Light amounts of ice and snow have fallen across eastern Colorado over the last 36 hours. A dusting of snow fell overnight last night as Friday held mostly frozen varieties of precip which coated vehicles and plants with a thin layer of ice. Conditions will continue to remain like this through early tomorrow before the clouds clear and the sun comes out. We'll rebound a bit into next week as highs climb back to near 60.
Still keeping tabs on the weather towards the end of next week. The silence in Stormtrack has been broken as the first thread regarding next week's potential has turned up. The models are still a bit unsure as they've bounced around systems from as early as Thursday to late Friday. Because I already have next weekend off, I'm pretty much good for anything during that timeframe. My preference would be a Friday event simply because it would require me not having to bail on class/work obligations Thursday. However, if a Thursday event unfolds, I should be okay to make the venture. With that in mind, I could leave as early as Wednesday afternoon. The system looks to be a east of I-35 at the moment, so will see how that unfolds through the week. Obviously still a lot of questions regarding this, but enough consistancy has shown up over the last few days to warrent making the status upgrade. A change in the pattern is upcoming at the very least.
On the backside of this situation is the potential for a major winter storm for Colorado and western Kansas. The models seem to be leaning at a deep low moving across southeast Colorado into western Kansas during this time frame which with cold enough temperatures, could bring a significant winter storm to the area. The models do show this system moving along at a fast clip, so although heavy, it should be fairly quick to get in and out. Will also be keeping tabs on that situation in case chasable weather moves too far east into unfavorable terrain.
On a final note, our newly obsessive *meant in a loving way* addition to the Colorado Gang, Jennifer Brindley recently recorded a couple promo commericals for KMGH - Channel 7 here in Denver. The first spots go live this afternoon around 3:20ish... if you live in the region and get KMGH and are at home today, turn it on and watch for her. I'm going to DVR it and may embarrass her later and post some stills! ;o)
Off to hide from the winter weather! Ciao for now!
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Thursday, April 05, 2007
Typical Colorado spring weather as we go from the 60s and 70s into colder temps and possibily snow. Nothing heavy, fortunately, but enough to remind you where you live.
Still eyeing various times next week for chasing weather including a newly visible setup trying to organize itself for mid-week. Nothing right now screams out enough to warrent any plans as of yet, but I'll keep an eye on it seeing as I am in a position for the next several weeks to chase at will with some restructuring of my plans.
In other news, had to do a complete wipe of my laptop due to Spyware infecting my system. With the junk I've amassed over the last couple of years, it was probably time to wipe clean and start over. I'm taking this opportunity to update various software and drivers and customize the machine more for the type of chasing I'm doing now-a-days as a lot of the older software was taking up space and simply was never being used anymore. I'm also hopeful to see a more increased performance of the system overall.
Off to do some more homework... keeping an eye on midweek and next weekend!
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Tuesday, April 03, 2007
Nothing exciting to speak of in the weather world... the quiet stretch looks to continue well into next week. However, the GFS is showing a system which at the very least may clear out the ridge and open up to a pattern more condusive to chasing weather. The last frames of the latest GFS show a potential system working its way into the southwest late next week which may set the stage for a weekend chase. Obviously its way too far out to start nailing out details (and my usual disclaimer of completely vanishing all together), but its something to watch as the week moves forward. I should have next weekend off from classes and work, so I'll be hopeful for a chance to get out in the April 13-15 timeframe. Stay tuned...
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Sunday, April 01, 2007
April Fool's Day... Happy Birthday to my bro, but also my official start to the 2007 chasing season. A quick glimpse of the GFS shows a quiet next 10 days on the horizon in favorable chasing areas. There is some action slated for mid to late this week, but its east of the Miss, not someplace I'm in a hurry to chase unless I get a weekend gig out of it. Be nice to let some time pass as I shake off the sting leftover from missing out on last Wednesday.
Nothing really of excitement to note in these first few minutes of April. A Cold Core setup evolved today in Iowa, but failed to do much. Seems that now that we've figured out cold core a bit, its completely 180'd itself. Not many successful cold cores this year out of the few which seemed to present themselves.
Beyond that, just noting the start to my chasing season. My Wednesday class which left me on the sidelines meets for the final time for a few weeks this week. This should thus eliminate all obligations which would keep me from chasing. I return to class towards the end of April for the last couple weeks of the semester to present my research project. That aside, all my big projects an online classes are well behind me. After this week, I'm good for just about anything regardless of the day it falls upon.
So with that, no jokes to be had on this April Fool's Day... at least not yet... the day is very young, and I have 24 hours of it to play. Trust me, it won't be you blog readers who endure my wrath today. I save that fun for those who put up with me fairly daily. I have a couple plans which may allow me a chance to indulge myself a bit. We'll see how it all pans out.
With that, good night all!
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