While this afternoon's AFD out of Denver did a complete 180 from where it was this morning, I still think there's a chance we could see chasable severe weather in the Eastern Plains of Colorado tomorrow. The big concern is lack of moisture which the models are showing as well as the potential for fog and/or low clouds clearing in a timely fasion tomorrow morning. Below is my synopsis of tomorrow...
All this looking at 36hr forecast for 0z Wednesday (Tuesday evening)...
The NAM's helicity values at both levels show good shear at low levels... the 0-3km along the Palmer Divide close in on 500 with 0-1km peaking 200! None of the models really break out a ton of precip, but here are my thoughts which I think maintain the chance to chase...
We should be under a good 500mb flow with excellent difluence and good speed out of the SW. In fact, the NGM and GFS both have the 500mb jet nosing in after 0z tomorrow, so storms should really get going after 6pm. However, dynamics and daytime heating along the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne Ridge oughta get storms going by mid-afternoon.
Excellent surface flow out of the SE with winds approaching or exceeding 20kts. All models do show a small theta-e axis nosing through Eastern Colorado, however they are a bit sparce on moisture with readings mostly in the low 40s with the occasional mid 40. I think we'll need upper 40s at least with temps in the 70s to keep LCLs are reasonable heights, even for landspouts. I wouldn't sneeze at mid 40s, though.. not here.
The NAM has a sliver of 1000+ CAPE nosing into SE Colorado to around Pueblo with up to 500 elsewhere on the Plains. The other models aren't so robust on CAPE with less than 500J/kg across the Plains.
Glancing at the current SFC obs, our dews are sitting in the mid 30s with a 41 at Akron and 40s surrounding the state. Winds however are out of the northeast and should begin to swing around in response to the incoming system between 6am and noon tomorrow. Winds will also increase in strength as the afternoon wears on, so conditions should get better as the day moves on for both moisture and surface flow.
So close to home and a helluva lot easier to get out of campus obligations, I likely will be out tomorrow. I get done with class at 12:45p and can likely leave by then. Jon V and I have discussed at length heading out from campus tomorrow and will likely proceed with than plan.
I'll update again in the morning... right now, I'm a go for tomorrow!
