Tomorrow is looking more and more like a
very nighttime event. With the GFS showing the upper dynamics moving in after sunset, I wouldn't be surprised to see storm initiation after 7 or 8pm along the dryline from Western Texas up through Southwest Kansas. The strong forcing coupled with high shear and instability will certainly yeild a nasty squall which will move eastward very quickly. The light show from this oughta be absolutely intense and probably well worth the trip itself. Tornado parameters are pretty good the further south you go, but are certainly possible over Northwestern Oklahoma and perhaps even Southwest Kansas.
However, Saturday's Cold Core setup looks inviting enough that skipping out on the best nighttime tornado potential to keep you in better position for Saturday would almost be the smarter play IMO. With the models showing the low moving northeast across Kansas, I would say getting to Salina early in the day would be the best bet. I imagine low-topped sups will be possible north and east of Salina through the early part of the day.
If I had to slate my plans now, I'm tempted to wait for an early morning departure tomorrow. Storms are going to fire late enough in the day where a drive from Denver wouldn't put me horribly out of position. At this point, I'm targeting any Friday night chasing for lightning and maybe wind. Its half tempting to call Friday an all-nighter, take a short nap in the morning while I wait for the low, then chase after the Cold Core setup on Saturday before returning home. However, if later model runs look a bit better for earlier firing convection on Friday, I will resume my original plans to leave this evening for Kansas.
In the meantime, the van's back at the shop and should be diagnosed shortly. I'm hoping to have it fixed by noonish so I can go claim it and have it ready in case I do leave tonight. Otherwise, I'll head home this evening and get some shut eye and wake up early in the morning to check out the situation. If Saturday continues to look decent for the Cold Core setup, I'll head out early enough in the day Friday to get in position for some nighttime lightning shots.
