Friday, June 30, 2006
Models are hinting at a few promising things storm-wise for the coming week, including hints of a monsoonal pattern which would give way to lightning opportunities as well as heavy rain producers. First thing's first, the upcoming days..
Tomorrow morning, a front will pass through Northern Colorado. This in turn will stabilize the atmosphere early in the day through mid-afternoon before easterly winds at the surface begin to advect moisture back against the Front Range. Storms should begin to fire in the mountains and gradually move onto the Plains. Weap upper level winds will mean slow storm motions. Heavy rain and hail will be the big threats.
Sunday, the classic day 2 setup again unfolds with the front well through the area and the chance for better moisture return setting up. Dews in the 50s will be scattered across the Plains, which will make for a nice, juicy enviornment for storms. Upper level winds again will be weak, thus slow moving and congealing storms will be the rule of thumb. Again, large hail and flooding rains will be the big threats. Sunday appears to be the best of the next four days, and also appears most likely travel day.
Monday and Tuesday, the pattern should hold giving us chances for storms each day. Again, hail and flooding the threats. Beyond that, the ridge sets up over us again warming us up and drying us out. Denver's AFD has pointed out that the passed several runs are indicating a chance that the pattern would shift to a monsoonal favorable pattern which will give us a chance for rain and lightning (small severe chances, but hail a possibility).
With summer in full throat, my expectations of storms shift from tornadoes to the photojournalistic stuff which comes with the slower moving severe storms. Large and/or accumulating hail along with crazy lightning and urban/flash flooding are my main catches through August. Tornado chances remain in the picture as a remote possibility, but certainly not something to gamble the farm over.
The National Weather Service in Denver released a preview of July's weather which summarizes the upcoming month and what climatology can be expected. July is dubbed as Denver's stormiest month, which has hardly been the case the passed couple of years. In fact, last July was when we set that record of consecutive days over 100 degrees. Typically, July is the least chased month for me out of the regular season months. Last season, I chased less than 300 miles over 2 chase days in which I never left the state. My insane tornado season of 2004 had no recorded July chases, nor did 2002. In fact, my only July tornado was on my only 2003 July chase which took me shy of 600 miles and I nabbed a brief gustnado near Julesburg. Total miles close in at 1000 for the seventh month over three chases with one tornado counted. So with that said, I'm hoping the 'Stormiest Month' title kicks in this montth and givesd me some local opportunities. Even if I get out on several days this month, I don't expect to log more than 1500 miles if even close to that due to the close proximity of the targets.
So with that said, the first day of July will bring the first chance at severe where a few days will line up straight through our Nation's birthday. I hope to get some fireworks from Nature seeing as you can't even touch the damn things here in Colorado this year.
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Thursday, June 29, 2006
Storm chances still looking slim for the coming days, but still keeping ana eye on the pattern in case something more organized can come into play. Saturday looks to be the start of a string of unsettled days which may last into the middle of the coming week. With Tuesday a free day for the 4th of July holiday, I'll have an extra chase day to play with if so needed. Right now, the best chances for severe sit in the midwest, and unless something looks incredibly good (and I mean incredible), I'll be keeping my focus close to home with targets as far out as a few hundred miles.
Website note, I updated a few links on the links page. Nothing too noteworthy; added chaser blogs and personal friends in a place where more people may see them. Also finally changed my chasing alert graphic to slight which is where it'll be most of the summer so long as storms remain a possibility. I probably won't change it beyond that unless a major overnight-type trip is setting up seeing as most chasing from here on out will be decided usually on the morning of.
Stay tuned for updates in the coming days as my storm days move closer.
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Tuesday, June 27, 2006
A tragic report out of Missouri today..
From SPC's Storm Reports for June 27..
2150 88 8 SSE CAMDENTON CAMDEN MO 3790 9269 HAIL DENTED BEER CANS ON MOVING MOTORCYCLE. (SGF)
In other news, nothing huge on the horizon for chasing weather here. I'm keeping an eye on Friday, Sunday, and Monday for thunderstorm chances. Definately not holding out for major severe, but the ridge which is over us now will move east and allow for a chance for fronts to push through again giving us post-frontal upslope chances. At the least, it'll be storm chances. I'll keep an eye on the severe chances as the days get closer. Friday looks like the worst chace of the three days. We'll see.
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Sunday, June 25, 2006
My Wheat Ridge flooding video made The Weather Channel today and has aired all day at various points. Nothing exciting like that around here today, but areas further south along the Front Range from Colorado Springs southward have had some storms. Not expecting any storms in the Metro area today, and figuring the same for tomorrow.
I went out today and did some area damage surveys from the winds and hail which came through here shortly after nailing Wheat Ridge. A large tree came down over a fence off Alameda near Kipling in what was figured to be a healthy wind gust. Other shots included some neighborhood stuff of branches and leaves in the roads, driveways, and sidewalks. I posted pictures in my June 24 Storm Chase Log, so go check that out with its new updates.
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Saturday, June 24, 2006
Front Range chasing today as storms moved southeast off the foothills and into the Boulder/Denver Metro areas. I observed golfball sized hail as I moved quickly in and out of Boulder, then fired south into Denver and jumped on the storm again on the west side of town in the suburb of Wheat Ridge where I observed 1-inch diameter hail and minor street flooding. You can view the complete chase log here.
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Chasing still remains on the list for today as a marginal setup is in place over the Front Range and parts of Eastern Colorado. Things oughta remain close to the Front Range for the most part as NW flow aloft will keep storm motions generally south and east. Storms will congeal as they move further into the Plains. My goals for daytime include hail and flooding; then pending the nighttime evolution and location of storms, may go for lightning after dark. I have no time restraints today thru Monday, so pending the evolution of the day itself, may elect to take the system into the southeast corner of the state if need be.
A side note for today; I am 234 miles from the 17,000 mile mark for this season. I've already set a new mileage record for most miles in a single seaosn beating out last year's total by 164, but every year, I seem to step up my travel by another grand. Depending on how the rest of the summer goes and of course any autumn chase trips, I could push myself beyond that into the 18s or higher.
The remaining could of days still hold potential, but it looks as if today's going to be the best of the three. Tomorrow may be a slow-moving, urban chasing setup with heavy rain producing storms with perhaps a bit of hail. Pending how conditions change further south of here (TX/OK Panhandles), I may consider staying over night in Southeast Colorado just in case the Panhandles open some surprise tomorrow. I've also considered the overnight stay in case I elect not to drive back to Denver tonight, particularly if tomorrow's target is in the same general area. I'll play that by year.
So with that, going to wait and see how things progress in the next couple of hours. WRF indicating storms firing along and north of I-70 near the foothills, then moving southeast towards the Limon/Lamar areas. I think our best chances will be close to home before things congeal further east. Will probably make my next tactical decision by that point.
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My three day weekend begins tomorrow with what'll likely be the first of at least a pair of chases in the days up through Monday. A marginal setup in the works tomorrow which will hopefully give a longer period of storm isolation prior to the MCS merger. I have the benefit of time with this trip as I can chase well after dark and hopefully add to my lightning arsenal by weekend's end. If I were to pick one thing to come out of this weekend, it would be a few good lightning shots followed by some good hailers. I probably won't narrow down a target and forecast til tomorrow as it does not appear tomorrow is one of those if-you're-not-on-the-storm-by-1pm-you-miss-the-show type of days, which means I can sleep in and take my time getting going tomorrow. Hence why I'm up writing blogs at 1:22am while playing Pogo bowling with friends over Chicago, Chris Camozzi, and Roxette. Beyond tomorrow is a bit fuzzy as to which day between Sunday and Monday hold the best hope and where. If I had an overnight preference to chase, it would be Sunday night into Monday, so I wouldn't mind having a good nighttime opportunity Sunday and stay overnight in position for Monday. I'll play it by day, one of the perks of living in Colorado during this type of weather pattern.
So with that, I'll say adios for the night. Expect a midday update as I coordinate with my Colorado buds and figure out what I'm going to ultimately do.
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Friday, June 23, 2006
I have elected to sit out this evening's chances northeast for a chance to recover for the weekend's action. Just as I get comfortable, Denver issues a rare afternoon HWO mentioning storms coming in from Wyoming which may produce severe weather including a few tornadoes. Nothing in Wyoming looks terribly exciting yet, but I suppose stranger things have happened. None-the-less, I don't imagine being lured out tonight at this point seeing as rush hour in Denver has begun and I'm looking at 45 minutes or more to get out of town. Not worth it at this point.
Still eyeing tomorrow thru Monday, all three days which I do have off, so chasing is definately in the picture if conditions warrent. Will check things out and make my decisions the mornings of unless I end up far enough from home one night to stay out.
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I have posted my chase report from Thursday in Eastern Colorado. You can view that by clicking here. We missed the big tornado of the day and we're not sure by how much. The time of the reported tornado has us near Elbert and east (slightly north) of the tornado. We had no view due to precip, thus missing the big show. A fun, exciting chase none-the-less filled with the usual barrage of Jon/Tony humor. I posted a video clip on the log which contains a couple more notable moments, most of which occured while sitting in stopped traffic due to construction for 20 minutes.
June 22, 2006 Storm Chase Log
Potential still exists for chasing in the upcoming days, including today. However, getting in after midnight last night and being up for work early this morning is making me lean towards sitting today out. Most of the best activity will be in Nebraska and South Dakota even as SPC has a slight risk pinned over the extreme northeastern part of the state. Not sure its motivation enough for me to venture out that way today with tomorrow looking decent and Sunday possibly holding potential. I'll play it by year today and see how it all develops. I drove to campus as a precaution just in case I get suckered out, but I'd say I'm sitting at about 30%. I'll update later.
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Quick update to say I'm home and that my lo for today will be up tomorrow. While we didn't get any tornadoes today in what turned out to be a giant convective mess, there was one tornado in Elbert County which was on a storm Jon and I did get on. We'r trying to determine if the funnel we saw was the tornado that was spotted. Beyond that, we were on several storms which were warned for spotter-indicated tornadoes, but most tornado reports were in areas we could clearly see. We have a bit to look at for post-analysis, but the storms forming today we certainly not condusive for tornadoes after their initial development. I'll post a full report tomorrow. One thing I am happy to say is I nailed my forecast to a 'T'. I think we just were 30 minutes late or initiation was 30 minutes early. 501 miles rounded today, maybe more upcoming in the days ahead. See you in the morning!
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Thursday, June 22, 2006
Will be heading out of the lab in about 10 minutes to go and get my test knocked out. Initial target is just east of Colorado Springs with routes to I-70, Limon, Pueblo, and La Junta. Spc issued an MD moments ago covering most of Eastern Colorado from roughly Fort Morgan southward into Northern New Mexico. Storm initiation taking place in the mountains and expect storms to slide into the Plains in a couple hours. Watch will be coming shortly.
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SPC issued their 1630z Outlook earlier than normal and upgraded a pair of areas to moderate risks, including Southeastern Colorado. They upped the hail threat to a 45% hatched and our tornadoes to 5%. Things look very tastey and its hard for Colorado Chasers not to drool over this setup. Excellent moisture, good temps, shear, the works. I will admit that got my blood pumping a bit when I saw that. Here's my ST post from prior to the new outlook...
Almost a carbon copy of yesterday's setup happening today. Fortunately I'll be free to chase this one!
Expect a much earlier initiation time in Colorado today as temps will warm easier today as front has gone through. Lower temps and higher dews will create much more ideal LCLs again today for tornatic development. Boundries should be pretty easy to find today after yesterday's convection and those will enhance tornado potential.
Flow still pretty weak out of the west at 500mb, but good SE/E surface flow will continue to advect moisture into the Front Range adding moist upslope to the mix. Shouldn't be an capping issues today with 700mb temps rather cool over 80s SFC temps. Dews in the 60s in Southeast Colorado will give ideal moisture conditions today with the upslope flow. Storms may be HPish, however, with an overabundance of moisture in the area. Heavy rains and hail are certainly very valid threats today. Storms oughta be as slow moving as they were yesterday, so imagine flooding may become a concern if one of those storms roots into 60s dews and sits in one place for a while.
Two areas to watch today; the Palmer Divide and Southeastern Colorado where CAPES are progged to be in order of about 2000/2500 in each place. Best SRH seems to be over the Palmer Divide with another area progged by the RUC to be in extreme SE Colorado. However, the RUC maintains some healthy areas of CINH over the Palmer area, so will have to watch throughout the day to see how that unfolds.
My thoughts, initially to play the Palmer Divide area between I-70 and Hwy 24 between I-25 and Limon. From there, may start moving SE with the storms into SE Colorado and catch the later action down there before turning around and heading home for the night. First warnings of the day for Colorado will be in effect before 3pm today for Palmer Divide areas (Jefferson, Douglas, Elbert, Lincoln counties).
Good luck to all heading out! Excited to see Colorado days lining up!
It looks like a classic Colorado chase day! I can't help but be a bit excited! I'll get in touch with Jon V as soon as I can and make sure all's set for this afternoon. I want to be well on the road before 2pm!
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A website note; I uploaded the Lightning of 2006 page with 9 of the lightning photos I've taken this year. Nothing near as spectacular as the stuff from last season, but some decent stuff none-the-less. This includes the weak photo I took last night while driving pies from a storm which moved off the foothills south of the Metro area.
Got the email out this morning and it looks as if Verne and Michael will be chasing as well. Will probably converge with them shortly after heading out. Still thinking along the Palmer Divide near Kiowa to start for the day and moving out from there. Will make another update later in the morning.
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I'm calling today a go for chasing as a similar setup will unfold again this afternoon over Eastern/Southeastern Colorado. Day 2 post-frontal upslope flow combined with good low level moisture and shear will set the stage for another round of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon from I-70 southward today. Our initial target will be the Palmer Divide and we'll probably work out from there. I have an exam this afternoon, but will be free to leave straight from there. Jon V is on stand-by at the moment as we both finish our days on campus about the same time. Will update again later in the morning.
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Wednesday, June 21, 2006
I ended up working tonight which leaves tomorrow open if storms should choose to repeat this evening. I ran WX Worx while delivering pies this evening to keep tabs on storms and be ready to nowcast if anyone without radar headed out. Verne Carlson had mentioned he was on the fence this afternoon, but don't know what he ultimately choose. I called and left him a couple messages with the storms out east as they went tornado-warned around 6:30p, but neve rheard back from him. My hopes are that he did get out in time to check out those storms. SPC has documented a pair of tornadoes in the far eastern counties around Burlington. Kanani Foster texted me bragging of several tornadoes she nabbed in Sherman County, Texas. Will be awaiting a formal post from either her or Jay McCoy with those shots. Jon Van de Grift and I went back and forth on the phone drooling over the isolated, stationary cells in Eastern Colorado and laughed at me having WX Worx running while driving pies. He and I are on stand-by for tomorrow as we both officially have the evening off to chase if conditions so warrent. Day 2 post-frontal setup should aid in convective development, and I have no doubt some boundries will be around as well as moisture left over. I'm sitting on about 60% for tomorrow and will wait the morning analysis to make a final call.
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I got a sad message yesterday night from one of our Colorado chaser friends who's good friend was one of the two captured soldiers in Iraq over the weekend. I got up this morning and heard the outcome is not good. I'm saddened to see such an event happen to a friend of ours and I want them to know my thoughts and prayers are with them and the families of these men. With that in mind, I have placed a yellow ribbon on my blog and index pages in memory.
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Monday, June 19, 2006
One of a very few no-storm busts today in Colorado, but the 302 miles bumped me over 16,000 for the second year in a row. We basically hung out along and around I-76, heading out from Brush to Akron, then up to Merino and just north of there where we hung out watching storms go up and die before we threw in the towel at 7p and came home to a Rockies win. And with nothing to post but the mileage itself, the log is up for today. Nothing to see here, though.
The week looks active for Colorado chasing, but too many things going on to get in on much of that action at least through Thursday. Tomorrow night, I have a Red Rocks concert of Chicago and Huey Lewis and the News (row 12) which I won't miss for anything. Wednesday is my pie-driving night, but I may be able to change out Wednesday for Thursday as I accidentally requested Thursday off thinking the concert was then. However, if Thursday holds any potential, I can get out then. In any case, lots of things going on and chasing isn't at the top of that list. With another decent Colorado setup going to waste, I'm getting skeptical of anything at all. But we'll see... the first setup I sit out will be the big one, so the next two days oughta be good.
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2006 continues.. heading home empty handed.
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Things are go for our chase this afternoon. I'll be meeting with Tom Dulong in Brighton at 3:30p and we'll adjust from there. I don't imagine we'll go too far right off the bat unless storms nearby warrent the move. Verne is going to head out from his place about 4pm and meet us on the road. SPC maintained the 5% tornado chance in Northeast Colorado, however with little mention of the area in their discussion. SFC dews out east look healthy and temps are even a bit cooler than once would expect. RUC indicates good CAPE and helicity in Northeast Colorado, and with upper level winds actually moving storms a bit, hopefully we can get those storms into the favorable air a bit quicker than our June 11 chase in which storms barely made it off the foothills before going to crap. My girlfriend will be coming along for the first time this year, so hopefully her jinxing ways will result in something opposite from what's been delivered with 2006. Hopes aren't particularly high, but things look all right! We shall see in a few hours!
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As I said on Saturday, I was eyeing today with slim potential, and thanks to Verne for bringing it to my attention earlier this morning as opposed to later. Not overly thrilled with tornado prospects mainly due to the 40 degree spreads, but close-to-home on a day off can't be ignore... here was my quick analysis I posted on the storm chasing forums..
Storms will once again initiate off the foothills and move into the Plains. Storms may produce marginally severe hail along the Urban Corridor initially as the move over town, however, dews are expected to mix out into the 20s and 30s alnog the Front Range. As was proven a couple weeks ago, we can get 1 in plus hail out of 30s dews over the Urban Corridor, so larger hail is certainly not out of the question.
Storms will be extremely high based in this area, but those bases will lower a tad as they move over the Plains later in the afternoon. Higher dews and CAPE values will promote storm growth and severe weather chances are definately much higher in Northeast Colorado along the I-76 corridor. SFC boundries are going to play a key role today for any tornado chances as bases will remain very high with 40+ spreads today. Any tornadoes which do form will be weak and short lived, and will probably take on a landspoutsih appearance with the bases as high as they are. Moisture pooling along a boundry on SE winds will be where you'll want to sit today.
I'll probably be ready to leave Denver at or before 1p, but don't anticipate getting too far out of town prior to 3pm. At the latest, I want to be on I-76 and just outside the city to avoid rush hour traffic issues. Will update at or after noonish.
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Saturday, June 17, 2006
Doing some website touch-up work this evening. Nothing too major; the biggest touch-ups on the index and log pages.
I added a few graphics to the index page as well as updated the stats and recent log pictures. The biggest addition was the image of me at the Circleville city limits sign with a direct link to that chase log seeing as it was one of my biggest goals in chasing. I've also moved the Colorado Gang link and made it an image link instead; removing the recent DVD release as I have no plans at this time to release anything new this year.
On the logs page, I resized the table which was making viewers side-scroll. I also updated the 2006 and career stats to reflect all chases up through this date. I've also went back through and updated the page-turner links at the end of my logs so they pointed to the right chasing logs before and after.
So that's it for website updates... like I said, just some small stuff to get a few more things caught up. Weather-wise, we return to the furnace this coming week as temps wil lsoar into the 90s again. Nice to have the break in the heat, but here in Colorado, it doesn't take long to get back there.
A late addition to this entry to plug a good friend of mine who I didn't get a chance to see much of at all this year due to the scattered nature of marginal targets in the 2006 season. Amos Magliocco, a gifted writer, spewed his thoughts on the 2006 season on his blog this evening. While I'm not sure I can throw myself at the mercy of a season which I think is undeniably one of the worst for chasing in recent memory, I can share his sentiments with the weather, or lack thereof, this season. My only saving grace which is keeping me from making that final baby-step over the 2006 cliff of frusteration is the places I found myself in, including the earlier mentioned chase trip home in which I followed the typical 2006 garbage storms straight into the heart of downtown Circleville. There are more than enough reasons to launch into a bitching session which could cover just about everything imaginable that went wrong this year, including the thousands of dollars which mixed out of my wallet, checking account, and credit cards just as the moisture on all our setups did this year. But in the end, this is what we do. We follow the weather, whatever and wherever it may be. But I think after this weekend's 12th round blow to chasers, the time may finally have come to concede that we will not have a week of June to save this season. While I may not openly admit it, last weekend may have been my farewell dance of 2006. Even with setups close to home this weekend, I barely was able to convince myself that it was worth jumping through my usual hoops to get out. And while I'm sure it would've been fun, the results were the same. After a while, even one's favorite roller coaster gets a bit dull. Why should this be any different.
I'm not sure I'd take back this season simply because I did make it home and back. But with summer heating up and the climatological storm chase season on the downward slide, I think the time is coming that most chasers will admit defeat and pack it in for the season.
I'm anxious to read fellow chaser Shane Adams' blog when he returns home from his chase today which I'm sure was not even close to what was advertised. He's thrown his two-cents in on 2006 a few times already this year and probably was the luckiest chaser this year as he was unable to get out and suffer the fate most of us did. His chases the passed couple days were like ours last weekend, close to home for the most part. I hope he did better than was the reports are showing for today, but I cannot imagine there was a needle in the haystack to find today.
But there is good news for 2006 (not related to car insurance)... Football season starts in 2 months...
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The dentist visit was a success! No extractions to speak of as I was prescribed some meds to cure the infection.
Chasing yesterday would've been out of the question even had I gone straight from work. Oddly enough, all the tornado reports came from Western Kansas in a messy looking system which probably would've been fun to be under. Flooding rains, hail, and tornadoes embedded in the line of storms probably made for messy travel on I-70 from Burlington, CO eastward.
Nothing to report in terms of upcoming events as the weather looks pretty uneventful through the end of this coming week. I have the next couple days off and will spend them close to home catching up on things before returning to work on Tuesday. Monday may hold some slim potential within a days drive and pending how things look and where the look best, I may keep my eyes on that just to be safe. Other than that, a big fat zero in the works for close-to-home stuff!
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Friday, June 16, 2006
Today's local chances have fallen off the charts and the best options for chasing today are a bit out of my straight-from-work range for today, so I am going to sideline myself for the weekend and enjoy some time at home catching up on some real-life stuff. I also made a semi-emergency dentist appointment for this afternoon in hopes of relieving this toothache which is steadily growing in magnitude with each passing day. My brother had something like this a couple years ago and waited til he was kept up at night cause of the pain. I'd rather skip that part and go straight for the relief. So with that, I'm likely to be too drugged up to do much after that. Will watch from my couch, though and keep an eye on things between innings in the Rockies game this evening! Good luck to all who are chasing today in Texas!
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Thursday, June 15, 2006
My synopsis on the next couple of days here in Colorado...
Today's prospects look interesting; a decent convergence zone setting up east of the Metro area should act as a focus for severe weather today. Low level moisture will slowly increase today as temps rise into the mid to upper 80s behind the front. Concerns for today; limited moisture return due to late frontal passage as well as slow frontal movement may not allow for enough moisture to get in behind the front. That and temps will still reach the mid to upper 80s which combined with lower moisture returns will add to LCL height. I think severe threat is higher today than on Friday, however, I think tornado chances are lower. With the low level shear along this convergence, there is the potential for short-lived non-supercell tornadoes.
Friday's prospects look interesting as well. This is the classic Day 2 Post-Frontal setup where moisture oughta be a bit better. However, 700mb temps are expected to warm a bit more than today which could set the stage for a hearty cap. Temps at the surface are progged to be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today, which when combined with higher moisture values, will set a better stage for tornado prospects as well as precip chances. Due to the stronger cap tomorrow, I think severe chances are lower on Friday, however, better LCLs and low level moisture would lead me to believe Friday is the better tornado chance day.
Still deciding on chasing Friday after work. Anything beyond two hours out will put me out of range leaving from work, so I'm keeping my eyes close to home. The weekend after that looks quiet, so I should still get some free time over the next few days to get some real world stuff done!
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An update on yesterday's record-breaking heat from NWS Denver shows the temp did make the 102 mark helping me nail my forecasted high temp. Here's the record product..
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOULDER, CO
508 PM MDT WED JUN 14 2006
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET FOR JUNE 14TH...UPDATED
...EARLIEST 100 DEGREE DAY IN DENVER WEATHER HISTORY...
AT 234 PM TODAY THE TEMPERATURE AT DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTREACHED 101 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE CONTINUED TO CLIMB AND REACHED102 DEGREES AT 427 PM. THIS IS A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FORTHIS DATE. THE OLD RECORD OF 99 DEGREES WAS SET IN 1994.
THE 102 DEGREE TEMPERATURE IS ALSO THE EARLIEST THAT THE 100 DEGREE MARK HAS BEEN REACHED IN ANY YEAR. THE PREVIOUS FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR OCCURRED ON JUNE 23RD 1954 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE HIT 102 DEGREES.
IN ADDITION...THIS IS ONLY THE 7TH 100 DEGREE DAY THAT HAS EVER OCCURRED IN JUNE.
DENVERS WEATHER RECORDS BEGAN IN 1872.
BURROUGHS
Storms are possible today and tomorrow in Eastern Colorado. My concerns for today will be limited moisture availability and higher LCLs. The front passed throgh earlier this morning and its slow movement won't allow for terribly favorable conditions for post-frontal severe weather. There is a convergence line setting up east of town which may give an area of enhanced severe and perhaps a brief window for isolated non-supercell tornadoes. I work both jobs today and don't anticipate getting anything too exciting between shifts.
Tomorrow also holds some potential and would work better with my schedule. I'll probably keep tabs on tomorrow before making any moves on things. I could head out after work tomorrow afternoon if conditions warrent. Temps will be a bit cooler tomorrow and moisture should increase with the Day 2 FROPA setup, however a stronger cap looks to be in place which could hold down convective potential.
Last night, a brush fire kicked up in Southwest Denver about 6pm yesterday. I didn't have any photo/video equipment aside from my cell phone, so I'll post a few snapshots of the area later this morning as I arrived on scene as things were winding down.
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Wednesday, June 14, 2006
At 1:33pm, the temperature at DIA reached 100 degrees which makes today the earliest 100 degree day in HISTORY as well as break the record for the date that was 99. With a couple hours left in peak heating, we still have a shot at my forecasted high of 102. Now I get to go drive pizzas in this shit! Ick!
From Denver NWS..
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOULDER, CO
158 PM MDT WED JUN 14 2006
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET FOR JUNE 14TH...
...EARLIEST 100 DEGREE DAY IN DENVER WEATHER HISTORY...
AT 133 PM TODAY...THE TEMPERATURE AT DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED 100 DEGREES. THIS SETS A HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THIS DATE BY ECLIPSING THE OLD RECORD OF 99 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 1994.
TODAYS 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURE IS ALSO THE EARLIEST THAT THE 100 DEGREE MARK HAS BEEN REACHED IN ANY YEAR. THE PREVIOUS FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR OCCURRED ON JUNE 23RD 1954 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE HIT 102 DEGREES.
IN ADDITION...THIS IS ONLY THE 7TH 100 DEGREE DAY THAT HAS EVER OCCURRED IN JUNE.
DENVERS WEATHER RECORDS BEGAN IN 1872.
FREDIN
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006
Temps near 100 today in the Metro area remind us all that summer is here and chasing is drawing to a close til fall. I hate summer, really always have. Too hot for anything, storms included! I find there's a threshold of heat which sets me into this summer-hating-funk, so once it gets beyond that, heat is heat to me. And growing up in Ohio, I know what humidity feels like, so save me the "its a dry heat" excuse.. I hate heat, period!
But, I get to enjoy the perk of working in an air conditioned computer lab during the work week as I have today. And in that time, I cranked out the last of my storm chasing logs from Mayathon. Below is a list to each log. Check them all out!
May 21, 2006 - Nebraska Severe Storm
May 22, 2006 - Eastern Colorado Supercell
May 23, 2006 - South Dakota Gustnado
May 24, 2006 - Illinois Supercell
May 25, 2006 - Indiana/Ohio Squall Line
May 30, 2006 - Western Oklahoma Supercell
June 5, 2006 - Eastern Colorado Scenic Storms
June 10, 2006 - Eastern Colorado Supercell
June 11, 2006 - Eastern Colorado Squall Line
June 12, 2006 - Eastern Colorado Severe Storm
There are a couple logs which still have a small piece here and there, but all the weather photography and the log story is completely up, so you can induldge yourself in the last month's worth of chasing.
Models are hinting at potential chasing days Thursday and Friday; neither of which look terribly appealing to me for meteorological and distance reasons. None-the-less, I'll keep an eye on it in case more favorable travel times coordinate with free days.
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Monday, June 12, 2006
Always nice to go into a chase with low expectations and easily have them met. A small trip for Jon V and I from campus this afternoon as we chased over rush hour from Denver up as far as Wiggins before returning home for an early evening. I completed the log for today and have it uploaded; check it out here. That'll wrap up this weekend's Colorado chasing ventures as I have logs up from both Saturday and Sunday as well. All three you can check out on my site. Going to spend the rest of the week getting final updates on the site and returning to my normal life as today marked the last official day of Mayathon 2006. Nothing too exciting waiting in the wings means I should be able to endure a normal week without venturing far beyond my apartment or work. Something that in a round-about way, I am eagerly looking forward to. Now if I could do something about this heat... ugh, I hate summer! :o)
June 10, 2006 - Eastern Colorado Supercell
June 11, 2006 - Eastern Colorado Squall Line
June 12, 2006 - Eastern Colorado Severe Cell
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I have uploaded a handful of logs and returned my index page back to normal. With today finishing Mayathon 2006 and me being at work, I wanted to get a jump-start on this project with intentions to have all pictures and logs completed by week's end. Several logs are uploaded and complete while a couple have the basics with no pictures. The most time demanding part of completing my logs is to size down the pictures and get them web-ready. A few of them I was able to do from the road as other people took the wheel and gave me a chance to do so. Others I just simply haven't had a chance to put up. Two logs remain missing right now, but those will be up shortly (for those who click links and they get the error page).
Chasing today still holds potential and its close proximity to home will probably be what ultimately lures me out in the field today. Heavy rains and small hail seem to be the biggest treats as overall wind fields look like crap. Good SE flow at the SFC below good directional turning should at least present the chance for supercells. My thoughts are a repeat of yesterday with slow moving storms coming off the foothills and into adjacent areas of the Plains. Fortunately, the best ingredients lie closer to the foothills, so storms should show their best stuff along and just east of I-25 before moving into unfavorable conditions east of there.
Still a couple hours left for me here on campus, but if things look promising, I'll head out straight from here to wherever looks juiciest. I'll post more later.
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Another chance for some local action this afternoon, but with shear values weaker today as opposed to yesterday, severe storms may not be as prominate. Weak wind flow at 500mb will also lead to slow moving storms much like yesterday which I think was what ultimately made tomorrow much less than it could've been. I imagine much of the same today if storms can get severe. I work downtown today on what would be my last official Mayathon Day til 3pm, so I do have a chance to get out on last time this afternoon and may act on that after I get done working. I guess a lot depends on how tihngs evolve through the day and whether or not things stay close. I'll play it by year.
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Sunday, June 11, 2006
Jon Van de Grift, Verne Carlson, and myself enjoyed a rather casual chasing day in our backyards which will finish right around 300 miles to push me over a grand for the last two days. Yesterday was definately the Colorado day of the weekend as today's storms were moving so slowly that they never had a chance to move into the better air out east. Jon met me at my place in Lakewood and we leisurely headed out to meet Verne in Hudson around 3pm. My forecast verified as storms did develop over the foothills and move onto the Plains along I-76 where we picked up our first storms in Hudson. Penny-sized hail was about all we saw and we did see a ton of it as it came down in buckets with the extremely heavy rain. We toured around Jeff P, Sean M, and company as we danced around the storms between Hudson and Brush. Our group then split as Jon and I jumped south towards Last Chance for our last chance at the line as it pushed through, giving off a helluva lightning show as it weakened. We stopped to shoot on Hwy 36 west of Last Chance, but rain and the frequency of lightning prevented us from getting any great shots. It was a crazy show as the lightning was flashing north, east, and south of us in a neary constant string. We're on I-70 now at I-270 getting into town where we'll head home for the night. So nice to be in our own backyard!
Accumulating hail of up to penny-sized on CO-52 east of Hudson.
The storm never really got organized as it slowly moved east out of the Metro area.
The squall at sunset looking west from Woodrow; the storms still hadn't crossed CO-71
The picture which sums up 2006; it went to the dogs.
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After getting in last night shortly before 2:30am, I was quick to crash out for the night. I barely made it out of my chasing attire before passing out after yestreday's incredibly long "local" day.
Today holds good potential in Eastern Colorado with what will likely be a repeat scenario from yesterday, minus the extra 400 miles of driving. Jon V is meeting me at my place at 1pm and we'll probably head out to areas just to the east of town and get on storms as they move off the foothills and into the Eastern Plains. Days like today you typically avoid using SPC as your guide mainly cause the forecasting of tornadoes is tough to do here seeing as we have our own unique setup which gives us are short-lived and weak tornadoes. Today is one of those days and SPC's back and forth between 2%, 5%, and back down to 2% shows that well.
Its hard to say what the exact tornado potential is. Yesterday's storm showed obvious signs of tornado potential and it was believed by all with me that had the LCLs been lower at that time, we would've seen an impressive tornado from way up close. If I had to find a concern today, it would be the same thing, high LCLs. SE flow is setting up nicely as of the 17z surface obs. Dewpoints need to come up a bit as front range obs are showing 30s and Eastern Plains in the 40s. Temps at the moment are rising as they're currently in the upper 70s with a couple low 80s scattered about. I would like to see temps remain in the mid 80s and dews get into the 50s for me to enjoy better potential today. Denver's latest HWO points out a convergence zone along I-76 from roughly Denver northeastward towards the Sterling area. Hard to see on SFC charts or visible at the moment, but CU starting to go up in the mountains with other fields showing up over the Palmer Ridge and east of Last Chance. Will be watching over the next couple of hours as I will probably enjoy a couple hours of relaxation before Jon arrives and we head out.
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Made it safely back home after 712 miles in 17 hours. Good night.
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Back in Wellington, Colorado after dropping off the guys back at the car and filling up. Have another hour on the road which will tack on another 80 miles to the 639 which I am currently sitting on in what will be the longest Colorado chase in my chasing career. I'll be over 700 miles for today for a day which the storm we ended up on was a meager 80 miles as the crow flies from my apartment. Definately the long way around today.
It was a beautiful storm and definately gets billing for the top structure storm of 2006 which had the bases been a bit lower, would've produced a good sized tornado with the low level rotation this thing was showing. It was unbelievable considering how crappy this storm looked when we got on it. Patience certainly paid off today for us as this storm evolved into the monster it did. I'll post a complete chase log on this in the coming days when I get back to work. In the meantime, I am going to caffine up and start heading home with intentions to be pillow-bound around 2:00am. Will update tomorrow morning on the chasing status for Sunday.
Supercell near Cope, Colorado around 6:30pm.
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Saturday, June 10, 2006
Sitting in Wellington, Colorado right now awaiting departure to the Nebraska Panhandle. Chris and Matt have jumped in with me and we're going to head north with a careful and watchful eye on the Palmer Divide. Memories of May 10, 2004 are clearly in our minds and will keep us on a quick trigger to blast back south.
 Two for Two in Wellington at the Loaf and Jug gas station.
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Coordinating with half the CSU department on today's meeting and chasing plans. Will likely kidnap a pair of those guys with me today to cover the chasing costs for the day. Will be meeting them in Wellington later this morning and heading out from there, a destination which will likely set us someplace along the WY/NE border for what's looking like a very early show which may have us on the first storms as early as noon. Models are showing storms evolving into a squall line/MCS feature later in the afternoon which may or may not cause us to continue chasing.
Tomorrow is the exciting day across the Colorado Front Range, and a day which I'm sure will hold very high potential in Colorado. Pending where we end up, odds are pretty good that we'll return to Denver (or Fort Collins) for the night and base out of here tomorrow. Jon V will be accompanying me tomorrow for what oughta be a very nice day for chasing!
Gotta love these convienient weekend runs! Makes it so much easier! LOL Stay tuned!
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Friday, June 09, 2006
Guess its probably a bit premature to pull the shroud over today. Storms firing in Northwest Nebraska are showing good potential as they move northeast towards South Dakota. Verne and Michael sidetracked north into the Sandhills and are hopefully on the storms as we speak. Severe warnings are on several right now, but the radar signatures would hint to me tornado warnings are possible from these as well.
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Verne and Michael called no joy early as SFC obs are showing a drying trend in moisture, which when you combine with already hot temps makes a difficult situation that much worse. Tornado chances look slim to none this afternoon and I'll be surprised to see more than a few brief tornado reports today. This definately makes me breath a sigh of relief in terms of Chris and I's decision to bail on today. While I hate to see it at the cost of my friend's time and money, I'm happy to say I'm good to embark on the next couple of days closer to home.
With that said, attention drifts from today and moves into tomorrow and Sunday. Tomorrow's setup has the target area just north of our state in Western Nebraska and possibly Eastern Wyoming. Verne and Michael are checking into the Ogallala Best Western where I may head up to meet them later and chill with them for the evening. I've also weighed the fact that I could get away with little cash out of pocket by staying home and maybe lucky enough to avoid a hotel bill all together pending where tomorrow's events take us. Sunday seems to be the better of the two Colorado days as we'll get the post-frontal time to get our upslope going again. We'll see how it all plays out over the next 24 hours, but regardless, I'm happy to be home today.
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Thursday, June 08, 2006
One of the single most painful decisions of my chasing career was given to Chris Rozoff and I this evening... after serious consideration of tomorrow's setup vs. the unfriendly logistics, we painfully elected to sit out tomorrow's setup and wait out the weekend closer to home. The logistics were insanely against us; our target was nearly 650 miles away from Ft. Collins; a potentially early setup; financial situations, and a million other things. Had this been a setup like May 12/May 29, 2004, I'd be on my way now.. but in light of the previous setups this year and the holes tomorrow is also presenting, I cannot imagine what we'll miss will be enough for us to enslave ourselves to for years to come. I imagine 10 to 15 tornado reports, maybe a couple of those photogenic and decent to chase. Some may be potentially strong, but I think an HP mode will be likely as well, hiding tornadoes from view. Iffy terrain near the river also plays a role as the road network isn't the best in Northeast Nebraska. I predict Verne, who is out already, will bag a pair of decent tornadoes, maybe a total of 4 including a couple weaker ones. A moderate day indeed, but too much to weigh in to say no for this.
I'll nowcast for Verne probably up til things get going as I'm sure I won't be able to pull myself away from tomorrow. Chris and I are looking forward to Saturday's potential as well as Sunday, both which I think could be sleeper days here. With action close to home and perhaps a pattern change upcoming, I think its best to save our funds and energy for mroe certian setups. My mileage for the season shows my gambling habit; and even as this may be my winning numbers, I need to wait for more promising times.
We'll see... but I will be chasing Saturday and possibly Sunday.. stay tuned...
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Blogger was down yesterday which prevented me from tossing out any updates. Talks began to circulate among the Colorado chasers and mentioned briefly on chasing forums in regards to this weekend, starting with tomorrow. Originally, things looked to be targeting Iowa from Des Moines eastward; a target which I had no intention of making a one-day trip out of on a Friday. If I were able to get out earlier this evening, I'd be a bit more gung-ho about it. However, today's runs show a target further west into Eastern Nebraska. A target which gets a bit better. I sent an email to the Colorado list which is as follows..
All right, now we're getting into the one day bubble of travel... I'm going to wait til the afternoon Day 2 comes out before pulling any triggers on tomorrow. IF things remain in the area (or even better move west), I'll probably make an early-ass morning out of tomorrow and plan to chase Saturday as well. Several things need to happen for me to get out tomorrow..
1. Work; I need this in two stages... one, I'll need to get covered on campus for my 8a-5p shift AND make up those hours on Monday. Unfortunately, I'll probably be gambling with the Monday hours til over the weekend, as I don't anticipate immediate swapping of shifts. I also don't anticipate having a hard time getting out of tomorrow.
2. Target; Needs to stay west of Lincoln, Nebraska and preferrably further west near or beyond Grand Island... anything further than that would be a gamble which combined with losing hours at work, would be tough to do.
3. Partner; I've got Jon V on the line about the weekend and if that wouldn't work, would really need someone to head out with to split the finances. After my transmission replacement (reason I am hesitant on giving away tomorrow's hours), I'm a bit shy on cash at the moment and sharing gas expenses would greatly aid in making this happen. I imagine hotels will be an easy share as there will be many of us to cover that.
If any of those reasons prevent me from chasing Friday's target, I'll probably turn my attention to Saturday and head out Friday evening towards the Hays area where I'll bunk down overnight and catch up with everyone Saturday before coming home Sunday. I will keep you posted.
And as I said in that email, I will keep you posted, so stay tuned!
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Tuesday, June 06, 2006
We're going to move forward with our plans for this afternoon's gentlemen's chase east of town. Visible sat showing a persistant line of cu developing roughyl along Hwy 24 from Colorado Springs to Limon. Several of us are heading out to meet east of town at 3pm where we'll pile into my van and probably head down someplace south and east of Denver. I don't think any of us are expecting much if anything today, but you can't turn down a setup so close to home. We'll be out just long enough at the least to avoid rush hour traffic and hopefully will get on at least one storm which survives its trip off the foothills.
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I finally was about to beat the traffic and make it home last night. The merger of three lanes into one added about 30 minutes to my arrival home yesterday and reminded me again why the first thing I will do once I finally do graduate is look for a job someplace smaller.
Today offers one last hope before I close the book officially on Mayathon 2006 and fortunately its right here in our own backyard. Chances are good we may not even have to hit the eastern border at all. That'll be nice after the 36 hours of driving which added another 1200 miles plus to my ventures. I imagine after today, I'll close up over 7500 miles.
Slight chance of storms today over the Plains and Urban Corridor. Hail and high winds are going to be the biggies, but the setup of a Denver Cyclone may give a classic DCVZ setup which is condusive for non-supercell tornadoes to form. I may opt to FINALLY break in my E-470 tag and go base camp right outside of town. The drawback with setups like this in the middle of the week is traffic, so you typically have to let the metro area storms come to you, otherwise you'll never make it out of town. In any case, I'm not planning on much movement from here for another couple of hours. Jon Van de Grift is going to accompany me today as I'll be picking him up from downtown on my way out east.
As I said, today will be my final official day of Mayathon before I go into my summer work schedule which begins in the morning on campus. I have a couple online classes to catch up with as well as a boatload of website updates and chase logs to add. I anticpate two weeks before I get the website fully updated. Chasing still holds chance through the summer into August, so there may be sporatic logs put up when chasing fits into my schedule. Typically July earns honors as the worst chasing month out of the regular season, so I'm hoping at the least to have my site completely updated by then.
Well, with that, I'm going to take care of a few odds and ends before venturing out today. I'll update from the road via cell phone, wifi, or whatever! :o)
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Monday, June 05, 2006
677 miles today and Im sitting in stopped traffic on I70 ten minutes from home at 1030 at night. GOD I HATE THIS TOWN!
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Sitting in Limon after my final fill-up and Wendys again. Thought I was going to get a bonus lightning show from this last little storm near Limon, but as dark fell, so did the storm's light show, so I opted to get my final stuff done before making the hour and a half trip back home for the night and will keep a peeled eye locally for tomorrow after today's rather blah day. I think the only tornado reports came out of the Dakotas as even the monster storm which moved out of Sterling didn't produce a report in its multiple tornado warned stages. I did take a couple daytime lightning shots which I need to dock up a bit before posting as I'm still figuring out this daytime lightning stuff. In an case, time to wrap things up and go home. My van has performed well in its 595 miles on the new trannie.
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Back on I70 heading west into storm cluster in Kit Carson County, CO. Not expecting much at this point. Heavy rain and maybe some hail.
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Blasting out of Oberlin, KS for Colby and will fly west on I70.
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Moving west to intercept towers going up ahead of front in Perkins County, NE. Shooting out on Hwy 136 towards Arapahoe.
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Electing to go north to Holdredge, NE.
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I found a nice, shadey wifi spot tucked near the back of the Cottonwood Inn Motel in Phillipsburg, KS right off Hwy. 36 just east of Hwy. 183 North outside downtown. Its a nice cozy place to tuck away and the wifi is strong. A place to remember later on down the road.
I think I am done with my micro-moves as I don't know where to go which is any better than right here. I personally think tornado chances are pretty slim anywhere within range of here, so I'm not sure moving 25 miles in one direction is going to do me a lot of good right now. Probably just safe to await initiation and see where things are going before I move. I like this area cause I can go any direction on major highways near the border.
SPC's meso analysis shows higher supercell composite numbers two counties to my east near the Mankato, KS area. I'm in a pretty benign area right now as things are probably starting to come together to my north and west. Moisture convergence is higher near the Oberlin area, so that's a somewhat encouraging sign. Shear at the low levels in this area looks like crap right now, but hoping that'll improve as the upper dynamics get pushed into the area.
I think I am going to sit here and keep my eyes north. Not sure I can drive anymore to put myself into a better position. We'll see what happens!
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Bumming wifi in Stockton, KS after reclaiming my van in Topeka this morning. Got off to a bit later of a start than I would've liked, but a stout cap and the clearing MCS has allowed me the extra time to position. My thinking is to continue north into Nebraska towards the Holdridge area as I think the best tornado chances will lie soon after initiation in the area along I-80 in Central Nebraska. More than likely as storms move into Kansas, they'll become part of a mass which won't be as condusive for tornatic development. I'll probably chase down to I-70 and make my next decision whether to continue on or return west.
Got off the phone with Jon Merage not too long ago and he's just now making Burlington, Colorado from Denver. Was hoping to run into him, but not sure that'll happen til much later in the day.
So with that, I think I'll continue northward. SPC has an MD out for Western Nebraska and I would imagine a Severe Watch will soon follow. I'll head north to the Holdredge area and probably run along I-80 south of the interstate unless something grabs my attention north of there.
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Sunday, June 04, 2006
Seems as if I have accidently thrown myself into a chasing target for tomorrow. I made it to Topeka without incident and arrived to find emails and SPC's upgraded Day 2 which points to a potentially significant severe weather episode tomorrow between me and Denver. Seeing as I just arrived in my room and have barely looked at anything beyond my email and SPC, I won't dive into potential targets or scenarios at this time, but it looks as if I'll be chasing westward on my way home tomorrow. At the least, I'll head out earlier than I had planned. Everyone opens at 8am, so my goal is to return my rental, get my van, and be on the road by 9am CDT and will hopefully have an idea as to whether I head west on 70 or north towards the NE/KS border. In any case, looks as if tomorrow will become the first official chase day of June 2006.
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Saturday, June 03, 2006
Got final word this afternoon that my van is ready to go. The transmission was rebuilt and will run me a whopping $1950 after taxes and such. Not the way I wanted to spend my chasing funds, but at least I can get it taken care of. Later in the summer, I'll opt into the lifetime warrenty offered by the company and thus eliminating the need to purchase another one later. This is a good thing seeing the reputation that Chrysler/Dodge/Plymouth vans have with their transmissions. Tim Samaras can speak of this as well having put a couple in a former vehicle of his. I'm hoping the early kick-off of this transmission and the purchase of the lifetime warrenty will rid me of transmission woes for the remainder of my van's life.
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