Wednesday, May 31, 2006
Well, than van will be in Topeka in a few days undergoing a transmission dimantling to dianose the problem. Worst case scenario, I'll need a rebuild and it'll costs me upwards of two grand. Fortunately, I've packed more than enough money away just in case something like this were to happen. I'm lucky in that regards. In the meantime, I'm going to go back to home. I've rented a car while I'll pick up this evening and head home tomorrow morning for a couple days before turning back around and coming back here to pick up my van and get it home. This will obviously end the Mayathon for all practical purposes.
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After a lengthy day yesterday, I was dropped off in Topeka where I await the repairs on my van. I got in touch with the shop earlier this morning and they said they should have news for me in the next hour. They had it on the lift checking for leaks, and it sounded as if they may be finished here soon. If that's the case, I'll ask them to drive my van over to the hotel and get me so I can pay for my repairs and hit the road. If I can be on the road by 10am MDT, I'll be a late arrival to the show today in Eastern Colorado before heading home to wrap up this lengthy road trip.
Yesterday was the most promising day of chasing so fat this trip, but once again, we were left without the ultimate prize. We spent most of the early part of the day in Liberal before tentatively moving south and east. Our curiousities were raised when we passed the DOWs and several other chasers heading back north, but later found out via other reports why that may've been. In any case, we finally elected to get on the Roger Mills County, OK storm and blasted south along a highway which took us beautifully around the core and into Cheyenne where we spent the better part of a couple hours playing around the storm. As we neared the interstate, we concluded this storm was not going to tornado, so we took shelter under an abandoned gas station and enjoy the 30 minute show in which we watched winds in excess of 70mph and torrential rains blast down from above. A nearby tree gave way in the winds which Michael captured on video through the blinding rain.
Once the storm passed, we jumped on I-40 into OKC and I took over the wheel of Verne's car and carried us into Topeka where I checked in the for night and Verne and Michael headed west to position for today.
Chris Collura, who is heading back to Florida from OKC today, met us last night and chased his final day with us. I wanted to thank him for his excellent company and coversation throughout the last couple weeks and wish him a safe return home this evening. It was a blast dude, and I hope to share better seasons with you in the future. And of course, Verne and Michael for their company as well as giving me a well out of the way lift back to Topeka last night. While I said last night I hope nothing too exciting happens, I hope you score well. Just don't tell me about it, K!
If I get lucky to get out today, it'll probably be the last chase of this Mayathon. I want to get home and spend a couple days recovering and get into the company of my lady who has patiently awaited my return for quite a while now. My original thoughts were to be home sometime Friday as I expected the van to take a while. Hopefully here soon, I'll hear better news that results in me spending the night someplace other than here.
I'll keep you posted.
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Tuesday, May 30, 2006
Blasting south out of Shattuck, OK on Hwy 283 to a monster storm near Cheyenne, OK.
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Nice to have a day where our max driving will be once we get on a storm as opposed to flying halfway across the country. We're within 100 miles on any legitimate target for today, and it shows with our casually quiet morning.
I got up right at 8am to take care of my van issues. The wheels have been set into motion as I called and informed them of the vehicle I left in front of their shop. They'll take a look at it today and hopefully will get back to me in a few hours so I can get a firm grasp on time and money it will take to get myself back on the road. At the very least, I'll send a cell phone text message to my blog once I get word on the issue.
As for today, plans are to remain close to our area, perhaps dropping south and east of here to get on the boundry which will be the focus for today's event. Low level winds are good in the area with decent south-easterly flow setting up dewpoints well into the 60s. Not much to complain about in terms of conditions today as we have great CAPE, good shear, and excellent moisture. The only problem I see is the potential for a ton of storms to fire, which is a bad thing cause not every forming storm will be tornatic, thus you need to hope you're on the right one. This may help at the same time as it'll spread out the chasers which are already confined to a limited area.
CAPE values in the 2500 - 4000 range with good SRH values will definately help promote severe storms. I have no doubt today will probably be one of the better chasing days of 2006 for some people. Sadly, it won't take much for me to hit that mark. We'll be ready!
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Monday, May 29, 2006
A couple of shots from near Pratt as we left Pizza Hut from dinner and saw this beautiful sunset..
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The first major disaster of the Mayathon occured this afternoon, but there were a list of fortunate items that went with it. While getting off I-470 to the Turnpike, my van suddenly and casually refused to move into third gear. It would keep reving. I called Verne on the radio and informed him I was having vehicle issues and we stopped off on the side of the road. The van wouldn't get into third gear. I could move throughout drive, neutral, and reverse with no problems, but when it got to third, it would suddenly rev up very high, then drop into gear hard. Obviously I elected to find the closest shop I could find. Unfortunately, it was Memorial Day, so nothing was opened. We found a transmission shop right off the highway, so I unpacked the van, loaded it into Verne's car, and left the van behind at the shop who I'll call first thing in the morning to inform them of my situation. In the meantime, I'll chase the next couple days with Verne and Michael in the Suparu and hopefully by Thursday, can return to Topeka to claim my van and pending repair costs and future setups, will likely head home Friday and begin the close-to-home setups to wrap up the final week of Mayathon.
In the meantime, a couple good days upcoming before things finally settle down. While I'm not sure of what the days beyond Wednesday hold, I'm hoping there will be the chance to head east to Topeka to claim my ride back and head home. The Front Range holds potential over the weekend, so we'll see about that.
I'll update again in the morning with a status update on the van as well as the forecast and target for tomorrow. We're all looking forward to sleeping in a bit tomorrow as we took all day to drive from Southeastern South Dakota all the way to Southwest Kansas to our hotel in Liberal.
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Near Cunningham, KS on Hwy 54 looking west.
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Heading west on Hwys 54 and 400 thru Wichita, KS.
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Passing by the city which started it all for me. Eyeing the storm developing south of Pratt.
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Van has transmission problem. Left van at shop in Topeka and have jumped in with Verne. Will hopefully know by tomorrow what problem is.
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Severe weather chances today are about the same up and down a line from Northern Minnesota down through South-Central Kansas. I'm not crazy about anything in this line as undirectional flow will result in a squall line all throughout the area. However, the photojournalistic side of me is eager to play for a variety of reasons. While tornado chances are slim just about everywhere, there is a chance for high winds and hail. More than anything, flooding is possible seeing as these storms will have little west-to-east movement. They will be moving north along the front and training as they go, which will result in rain for the same areas over and over. While eyeing Tuesday, will chase our way south into Kansas today and prepare for tomorrow's much more appetizing setup.
I think any area up and down this line today is just as good as the other for anyone looking for tornadoes. And that chance is far from great as there will be a narrow time window open for tornatic development before the storms do merge. Wichita and Des Moines AFDs and HWOs mention tornado chances in both areas, but both are rightfully skeptical. I think the chances in Kansas hold a bit better simply cause there is some sort of a cap in place down there. Further north, things will be rather uncapped, and thus explosive development will result in squall line potential very quickly. I'm hoping the cap down south will give a bit more of a window before things line out.
Regardless, my overnight destination is going to be in the Wichita area in preparation for tomorrow. I have a hunch things tomorrow may move a tad bit east which is preventing me from commiting to an area in Liberal. Will likely move south on Tuesday into the Panhandles, but will define those areas more later today into tonight.
So today's target, Central Kansas for hail and flooding potential. Anything tornatic will be a nice surprise. I imagine a few tornado reports from MN down through KS, so think any place along the front is as good as the other. However, Kansas has something the rest of those areas don't; Tuesday's target.
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Sunday, May 28, 2006
I went ahead and spent a couple hours enjoying the water this hotel has to offer. The slide is super fast! LOL After some catch with a few people in the outdoor (kid-free) pool, I elected to head back and get caught up on things. Much to my delight, SPC threw an MD out for the area from here westward. Storm intiation is possible in some areas, but given the nuclear cap overhead, its not terribly likely. However, if storms do form, the conditions exist for them to get severe in a hurry. At the very least, I am looking for a chance to shoot lightning in or around the area, so I'll keep my eyeballs pealed. I'll get a bit more excited if we can squeeze a severe watch. STAY AT THE HOTEL! LOL
Back east, Verne and Michael are back in Murdo on the eastern edge of a watch which went up while I was swimming. Storms are firing in the western portions of that watch and are expected to continue to do so the in region behind the front. It'll start to get messy later on as that area becomes a mutated MCS.
In the meantime, I'm going to enjoy my burger and keep an eye out for things. Ciao for now.
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My day of driving has come to a close, and while I am ready to leave this room on a moment's notice, I'm more inclined to sit on the sidelines for today as I've said several times already since this morning. Still nothing much to get excited about right now. The SFC obs show a massive dry punch coming up from Nebraska where TDs have fallen into the 30s and 40s with even 20s coming in out of Northeast Colorado. A SFC low seems to be developing as a result of this in Northern Nebraska which will help back the winds in areas just to the east of this feature. While I could probably easily make Mitchell, my motivation to drive another hour was lacking considering the uncertainties of today and my positioning for tomorrow. With that, I'm going to take a "wait-and-see" approach and if something does develop within an hour of me, I'll be ready to roll in after it.
In the meantime, I'm going to enjoy this hotel as I made an early enough call to talk them down $20 for the night. Turns out this place probably would've been worth its original price, hell, its got an indoor water park, room service, the works! It'll definately keep me busy this evening while awaiting to meet up with Verne, Mike, and maybe Chris if he makes it down this way. I just got off the phone with Amos who is probably doing the next smartest things for today; heading south for upcoming days. In fact, I saw him pass on the interstate from out front the hotel while I was on the phone with him. We may meet him Tuesday pending on how things evolve, but like him, I'm planning on working my way south starting with tomorrow.
Anywoo, I'll keep an eye on things and if anything, will get out to shoot some lightning after dark. Til then, I'm going to enjoy this and remind myself that this IS a vacation...
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Im going to stop in Sioux Falls, SD and see what happens with today from there. Primary focus shifts to Monday in SW IA,SE NE, and NE KS.
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Fillin up in Austin, MN.
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Crossing back to the west side of the Mississippi into Minnesota.
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Too many negatives for the play in SD, and with my hunch that the best action will be near triple point in NW Nebraska, I'm going to use today to get into position for the next couple of days. My plan will be to go ahead and shoot for Sioux Falls, SD straight out I-90 and see what happens. I can stay overnight and be within a couple hours of tomorrow's target while not getting myself too terribl out of position for Tuesday. From there, will drop into Kansas for play on Tuesday in SW Kansas, Eastern Colorado. Today just looks too far and too slim for any justification of racing nearly 500 miles in an all-out sprint. I'll head that direction as a just in case and log it as a chase if I end up getting on something, but this will be psuedo-chase today.
Midweek is starting to look potentially interesting in areas from the Front Range into the Central Plains. It'll be nice to get within a day of home again!
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There's enough doubt about today's setup in which I am debating whether or not its worth it to blast into South Dakota. Mileage from where I am now to Mitchell, SD is 467 according to Google, which at 70mph is just over 6 hours. Mitchell also appears too far east as it looks like today's best setup will ride in NW Nebraska. And even there, plenty of things make today's risk a big one. My next thoughts ride with tomorrow; better chances for severe, but winds are going to support a squall line threat from Minnesota southward through Iowa. While neither setup looks completely appealing to me, it is on my way home. My major qualm with today is the distance from me to it, and I'm not sure its worth that kind of haul assuming I would even make it in time. My thoughts are NW Nebraska is the place to be today, but lack of good roads and impossible distance will make my besst target well out of reach.
My secondary plan, move into Iowa today and await a nighttime lightning show. Pending tomorrow's setup, I may elect to pass on that as well, moving towards SW Kansas/SE Colorado for the Day 3 dryline setup in which supercells in much more favorable terrain are a better possibility. I'll have to play it by year, but I'm not sure I want to blow a ton of gas and race eastward when I know damn well my chances of a timely arrival are far from good. My virtual target in that case, NW Nebraska. Hopefully my Colorado buddies based in Denver today can get up there.
I'll update here shortly. Unfortunately with every minute I sit in debate, the further today's setup becomes. I think its obvious which way I'm leaning for today.
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Saturday, May 27, 2006
I made it to Portage, Wisconsin a bit later than I had planned. This was due in part to the side-track I had west of Chicago on a storm which went tornado warned about 80 miles west of town. Jon Van de Grift alerted me of the incoming storm and Doug Kiesling nowcasted me out of the city til I got my gear out and thrown up and running. I intercepted the weakening storm in Yorkville, IL and quickly returned to my reguarly scheduled driving. Some nice mammatus trailed off to the distance as I made my way back west then north towards the border. Earlier in the day, I took a side-route which lead me into Michigan for the first time in my life for all of 15 miles. I also snapped a quick shot across the street at the small Ohio state sign. I then took the turnpike across Indiana to Gary where I met for the first time a friend from an online community I've been part of for nearly 7 years; we had a burger at a local resturant before I make my chasing side venture. When I crossed the border into Wisconsin, I entered my fifth state of the day and once again was able to cross of another state traveled through. I stopped at the well placed rest stop and snapped a few pictures at dusk of me at the state sign before filling up and getting to my Best Western here in Portage.
Tomorrow will host another long day of driving as I have about 500 miles to go to get to a centered target along I-90 in South Dakota. My hopes are an eastward shift in the threat area to save on some driving. As it stands right now, I'll be up and on the road by 8am to allow me the chance to arrive in my target area by 3pm. With that, I'm off to bed!
Oh yeah... I found him again! ;o)
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Several marginal days upcoming for the northern Plains, and with that, will make my next road efforts back north and west. I'm heading for Portage, WI tonight where I'll bunk down overnight in preparation for tomorrow's play in South Dakota. The following days hints at play in Minnesota, Iowa, and Kansas, so I'll stay overnight along I-29 tomorrow night so I can adjust in any given direction. Beyond that, my travels oughta take me south to the real chasing region of the country in Kansas and Oklahoma. I'll worry about that and beyond in the next day or so.
So with that, I'll pack the van and enjoy a long day on the road. I'm going to take the northern route from Toledo to Chicago so I can dip my toes into Michigan along the way and cross that state sign off my list ( this will be mapped as a green state on the main page). I may make a stop in the Chicago area as well before continuing onward to Portage, Wisconsin, in which that state will also be removed from my list of states I need.
Tomorrow, I'll just hop on I-90 and head west, making adjustments along the way based on the morning's forecast and obs. Right now, there's hardly much to get terribly excited about, but its on the way and that's what matters ATTM. Neither of the two days look all that enticing, but its weather and I'm out here to chase. That's exactly what I'll do!
Off to pack and get ready to hit the road. I'll have the music cranked up today!
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I've posted my Back Home Storm Chase Log from May 25; have a few video stills I want to get up of the lightning from Washington Court House, but I'll worry about that later. It's 2am EDT and I should get to bed now! :o)
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Friday, May 26, 2006
A dream chased down!
Probably the most succssful chasing I've done all season so far. Back when I began storm chasing out of Denver, my single biggest dream was to chase a system from Colorado to Ohio. And while 2006 has been far from exciting weather-wise, I can say some good came from this year as the lull in the season allowed me the chance to accomplish something I've been dremaing of for a while; I chased a system across the country and followed my final storm right into the center of my hometown last night.
I have a couple logs to put up, including yesterday's, which will come later today. While storms are firing in Colorado as we speak ( Verne Carlson is out right now), I've spent today with long time friends and resetting for the next week of chasing. I met up with a preschool friend for lunch in Chillicothe after spending yesterday evening with a grade school friend who graciously put me up last night on very little notice. After time with friends today, I went to the Circleville Wal-Mart which is dubbed as the country's third largest, and gave my van a breather with an oil change, new wipers, and two new Goodyear tires while I did some shopping of my own to cover a few things I needed to stock up on. I then said my goodbye to my hometown and checked into my suite so I could make a quick escape tomorrow. I need to run some things to check where my next destination will be, but as of my last check, it was up north and west.
It's a strange feeling to pull into a place after so long. I mean, granted, I've visited on numerous occasions since my 1998 departure, but its even more strange that I literally chased myself in. The storm which lead me here was a tornado-warned cell embedded within the squall in Greene County where the well known tornado town of Xenia resides. After a lucky break with stopped traffic in Dayton, I jumped south on I-675 to OH-235 where I caught Hwy 35 into Washington Court House where I let the storm overtake me so I could enjoy the brilliant lightning show from behind as I trailed it up Hwy 22 into my hometown.
After spending a couple hours chatting with friends, I crashed out for a full 8 hours for the first time in days before making a tour of the town in my van. I stopped by my old high school and ran into my old Algebra teacher who was very excited to see me stopping in. I was lucky again as it was a teacher-service day and all the students were gone. I chatted with him for nearly 45 minutes before I left. I also enjoy the look on my old neighbor's face as she passed us in the halls. My Algebra teacher stopped her and with a huge smile said, "You'll never in a million years guess who this is!" Of course, I enjoyed it as she stared me down, but if you had seen me in high school, you'd understand that my physical appearance is much different now, so unless you've seen me in the last few years, I'm hard to pick out. In any case, when she realized who I was, her face lit up and I got a huge hug. I miss these people, I really do. It was a nice surprise that I ended up back home for a down day.
Anywoo, I've got a few hours before my friends get out of work for the evening, so I think I am going to do some work and relax for a bit. I've got all my cameras on chargers, my clothes in the wash, and I'm ready for a nice hot bath and a shave. Week 1, while rather benign for weather, was a great way to start. I chased down my biggest chasing dream this week. Now its time to play hard-ball!
My van in front of my old house in Circleville, Ohio.
My van in front of the street sign of the street I lived on (Willow Lane).
My van and I under the Circleville Pumpkin water tower.
This picture says it all; my van and I at the Circleville city limits sign; I made it home.
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Thursday, May 25, 2006
Downtown Circleville. I am home.
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Crossing into Pickaway County, Ohio watching incredible lightning. Light rain falling as storms weaken and move east of me. Only 13 miles to go before I get to Circleville and complete my dream.
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Storms weakening over Fayette County. Im near Washington Court House.
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SCREWED. East side of Dayton, Ohio. Traffic stopped.
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Crossing into my home state on I70.
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I70 EB at mile marker 137. Severe warned cell at tail end of northern line.
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On I70 east at mile marker 128.
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Near Bloomingtonon tornado warned cell.
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Chris Collura and I are in Plainview, Indiana to the southwest of Indianapolis munching down on the world's best pizza at the local Donato's. We're going to gas up and head a bit further south and west to get into position as it looks like initiation will be in the next hour or so. SPC still maintains the 10% hatched area across the region, and the latest MD backs that up. We'll be in position to intercept from the east today instead of playing catch up.
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YES!!! I about died when I saw the new Day 1 with the 10% hatched over Indiana and Ohio! I'm going to make it home today! Wow! Unbelievable! I'm so excited! If I can nail down a tornado in my homestate today... OH MAN!
We're going to head out here shortly for a preliminary target of Indianapolis, IN and make adjustments out of there. Dayton seems like a good bet as well, however it may be a bit too far east right off the bat. Indianapolis may even be too far, but we'll see. We'll be in Indianapolis shortly before 3 hours from here, not including the shift to Eastern time zone.
Definately stay tuned today! I'll be chasing my way home today!
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Wednesday, May 24, 2006
First time and chase into Illinois went well considering we were thinking blue-sky bust come 5pm. Fortunately that wasn't the case as we intercepted a photogenic storm at the tail-end of a line which had formed earlier in the day in Wisconsin. I've posted a full log covering today's events which can be viewed by clicking anywhere in this sentence! :o) Today's high point was crossing Illinois off my list of traveled-to states and finally bridging the gap from Ohio to Colorado.
I'm staying overnight at a comfy and real nice Best Western on the north side of Bloomington, Illinois. Chris Collura and I are in the lobby making updates to our websites and waiting on SPC's Day 1 covering tomorrow's potential so we can determine the next course of action. A lot also rides on the upcoming days in the Plains, but talks from other chasers don't seem too encouraging as of yet. And to be quite honest, I'll be hard pressed to be turned around being so close to my ultimate chase dream which now lies a meager 367 miles to my east. It'll have to take a decent setup to get me to turn back west right now. In any case, I'll have to start making plans in the morning to figure out my next step.
I'll update again in the morning when I have something more to update, but mainly wanted to point out I've sent up the log from today in Illinois. Stay tuned in the morning to learn of my next move.
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Intercepted a storm southwest of Chicago, IL. Heading south on I39 to Bloomington,IL for the night.
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Good morning! Things still look potentially decent in Eastern Iowa, Western Illinois, and Southern Wisconsin. We're going to shoot south on I-29 to I-80, then blast east to the IA/IL border to Davenport, IA which would be about 5 hours away. We figure we could arrive at the westen edge of our target area by 2pm which would work out as well. Not high hopes for tornadoes today as the best period will be early initiation for supercell structures and possible tornadoes. Quickly after initiation, storms should evolve into a squall line much like they did yesterday where we'll probably pick a point and stay ahead of it with hopes we get the spin-ups we saw yesterday.
Current SFC obs indicate the best backing in Northern Illinois and Eastern Iowa ATTM. Moisture looks good throughout the area with TDs in the 60s. Wind fields seem a bit more favorable today as the flow won't be straight out of the south like yesterday but more of a southwestly flow which will increase shear. The weak jet should be in our area today as well and seems to be moving over the Eastern Iowa area. The RUC is showing 850mb is bringing a due west wind and the SFC SE wind oughta give decent low level turning which hopefully will give us some hope early on. Good CAPE will exist in the area as well. It definately looks like the morning clouds and convective junk will move out of the area and will give way to sunny skies which should warm temps into the 80s. Initiation will hopefully occur after 4pm to allow us a chance to get into position. There's a slim chance we could see Wisconsin today, which combined with Illinois, would tack on another pair of states to my growing collection.
Anywoo, time to pack and ready to hit the road. Catch you later!
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What a day! Two new states to add to my life-long state count ( South Dakota and Minnesota) and Iowa thrown in added three more states to my 2006 chase list! In the end, a well defined gustnado near the town of Letcher, South Dakota! You can view the entire chase log here! The summary is contained on the link page!
Tomorrow looks to be one more step closer to my ultimate chasing dream to chase a system from Denver, Colorado to my hometown of Circleville, Ohio. Tomorrow I'll get aquainted with Eastern Iowa and Illinois where I'll probably stay overnight to prepare for Indiana and possibly Ohio for Friday. If the weekend looks slow enough to allow me a chance to return west for the next target (or straight home to Denver), I'll complete the venture into Ohio on Friday and spend a day or two there with friends before making my way back home. This will be an epic adventure and a long time chasing dream of mine and I'm halfway there already! DEFINATELY stay tuned as this adventure continues to unfold!
Again, check out the log from today here! Included is a video of the gustnado which we witnessed. Verne and company shot south on I-29 as Chris Collura and I went east to Hwy 75 and nailed a second tornado further south! He'll be updating his site with this soon, so check there later.
More info as it comes! I have a few errands to run tomorrow and my preliminary target sits along I-80 in Eastern Iowa.
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Tuesday, May 23, 2006
Just observed a strong gustnado west of Loomis, SD.
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Currently in Valentine, Nebraska where we've met with Brad and Scott from Illinois at the Holiday Inn Express. We're going to top off and continue north then east where we've targeted Plankinton, SD. Initiation seems to be focused between 3p and 4p, so we think we have time. Most of our friends have elected to play the southern targets today, so the chasing herd will be spread and thinned out. Going to be exciting chasing into South Dakota for the first time! Will be a tourist and stop at the state sign for a quick couple pictures!
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Yesterday was a bit of a meteorlogical disappointment as lack of good winds combined with the mixing out of our dews turned yesterday into more of a wind event. We made it down as far as Last Chance, Colorado to intercept the outflow dominate storms coming out of Colorado Springs. We turned around and flew back north to Sterling and followed a couple storms into Nebraska to 80 before calling it a day. We ate dinner in Ogallala then drove out to our hotel in North Platte.
Today, the day I've been waiting for... South Dakota. We're going to make a straight shot up Hwy 83 to I-90 near Murdo, SD and probably adjust east from there. Estimated time to arrive at 90 is approximately 3 hours. I'll update again from there time (and wifi) permitting.
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Monday, May 22, 2006
Verne, Michael, and I are sitting at the Microtel Hotel in Brush, Colorado awaiting the clearing shown on the visible sat which is moving northeast in our direction. TDs have mixed out a bit with readings dropping into the upper 40s over NE Colorado with a pool of 50s south of Sterling. Having a hard time deciding what to do next and have elected to sit tight here for a bit longer as Sterling is only 35 miles up I-76. We'll chill (figuratively) here for a bit longer and see what's next.
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To ensure that I won't have issues with the digital camera, I went to the McCook Wal-Mart and replaced my digital camera with another Canon Powershot; the S2IS model. Not an investment I wanted to make, but with the E18 error becoming a more frequent problem, I wanted to make sure I had digital stills available to me over this trip. I'll be breaking it out for the first time this afternoon.
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If you live in Colorado, you know how days like today can be; while nationally, things don't look eye-popping, but on a local scale, its days like today in which you see lots of storms with hail and tornadoes. Local weather forecasters seem to like today as they are calling for an outbreak of severe weather. Here are some clips from the morning's AFD and HWO...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
400 AM MDT MON MAY 22 2006
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN CULPRIT IS STRONG NEG TILTED TROF NOW COMING ONSHORE ACROSS SRN CA. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY MOVE TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY 00Z TUE AND THEN OVER THE FRONT RANGE TOWARDS 12Z TUE. FAIRLY DECENT ASCENT NOTED FROM QG VERTICAL VEL FIELDS BY LATER THIS AFTN AND TNT WHILE 70KT JET CORE LIFTS ACROSS NERN CO BY LATER TNT. MID LVL FLOW ALSO INCREASES TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 35-40KT WHILE LOW LVL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE S-SE. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500J/KG OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND INCREASES TO OVER 2000J/KG FURTHER EASTWARD. ABOVE FACTORS CONDUCIVE TO SOME STORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. SPC ALSO HAS ALL OF NERN CO IN SLIGHT CHC OF SEVERE TODAY AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR IN THE RICHER MOISTURE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL(UP TO 2" DIAMATER) AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...EVEN OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR EXPECT A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. GIVEN THE THE STRONG SERLY LOW LVL FLOW EXPECT EVEN A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
600 AM MDT MON MAY 22 2006
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS AFTER 11 AM THIS MORNING...THEN SPREAD OUT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AFTER 2 PM WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCH IN DIAMETER...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...STORMS MAY PRODUCE PENNY SIZED HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
A STRONG DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY THIS EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HELP SPAWN AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AS THE SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
From our current location in McCook, Nebraska, travel distance from here to Ft. Morgan is approx 180 miles/2.5 hours. With the time zone change back to mountain for us, we'll probably be out the door no later than 11am CDT with my hopes to arrive in Ft. Morgan before 1pm to make any needed adjustment out of that area to intercept. We're very excited on the potential for the day as this may be the first big severe day here in Colorado. Stay tuned!
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The first chase of Mayathon 2006 was a good one; got what we expected on a marginal setup in Northeastern Colorado, Eastern Wyoming, and Western Nebraska. Our first storm was tracked from Wyoming along I-80 into the Nebraska Panhandle. We met up with Katie Burtis briefly just outside of Cheyenne and took her east for a bit before she continued home to Idaho. We crossed into Nebraska and jumped south out of Sutherland, NE to intercept storms which were developing west of McCook. We caught up with the storms about 15 miles west of McCook and ran circles around the town chasing Baron's coffee cans north, then back south. We stopped to enjoy a beautiful sunset with the storm in the foreground, then took our shots at nighttime lightning before settling down for the night with Wendy's at the McCook Holiday Inn Express. You can check out the log page for it here.
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Sunday, May 21, 2006
Currently sitting at the Love's Truck Stop in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Filled up for $2.56 and am downing a Berries and Cream Dr. Pepper. SPC meso analysis showing 3000J.kg CAPE over this area even as TDs are in the 30s and low 40s. Higher dews near 50 slightly east, but conditions deteriorate more out there. While I don't think the 2% will verify (although there is a TORNADO WARNING 120 miles north of me near Douglas, WY), I think we do have a shot at some hail.
Tomorrow's outlook perked up with mentioning of tornadoes in DEN's HWO this morning. Current thinking is east of a Limon to Greeley line which has me contemplating an overnight stay between Sidney and Sterling if my travels today take me that far east. In any case, things look better tomorrow and definately have my attention.
In the meantime, going to hang out here and keep an eye on things while awaiting Verne and Michael to arrive. They should be about 30 minutes out by now. Will call and update them.
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Slim hope for some hail today in extreme Northeast Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle. Am packing the van with plans to be on the road within an hour.
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Saturday, May 20, 2006
Nature just gave me a tease; a small storm rolled off the foothills and into the western sections of town dumping a quick quarter inch of rain and some intense CGs. No hail with this storm, nor did it even fake it, but it was nice to have some convection. Some minor ponding in area parking lots as the water drained into the ditches, but was quick to wash off.
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The plan...
I think the most productive item of the day will be sitting through the 6:05p Rockies game. The weather isn't doing much of anything anywhere, so I've pretty well written today off all together. I'm glad I held off on the urge to leave last night. Much cheaper here.
Tomorrow, eyes wide open for some Eastern Colorado action! How can one turn down anything in this part of the country! Eastern Colorado is usually a safe bet as storms typically will form. Now you won't usually get the monsters that other parts of the country sees, but when SPC throws a slight over Eastern Colorado, its usually a good bet you're going to avoid a complete bust. Those of us here in Colorado are looking forward to the opportunity to chase our own backyard.
I will likely return home tomorrow night and head back out again Monday. This assuming I don't end up too far from home tomorrow. While hotel expenses will greatly outweigh gas prices, pending the Monday target, I may elect the hotel night to save on the mileage. I'll play that by year.
Monday night into Tuesday will be an overnighter. Again, another chance to chase Colorado on Monday will allow for some eastward advancement of our progress as the day wears on. Our plans will remain to stay out overnight wherever Monday night into Tuesday before advancing eastward on Tuesday to that day's target which sits between I-70 and I-80 all the way out to Iowa. Wednesday remains to be seen, but if a dead period awaits behind it of at least a day or two, I may chase the system into the Midwest on Wednesday, so we'll play that out by year.
Nothing of excitement going on, although we have seen some sprinkles in the Denver area. No thunder to be heard out of any of this. Verne and I were watching storms up along the Cheyenne Ridge, but they seemed to be losing their punch as they moved east/southeast off the ridge and into the High Plains.
So with that, planning on leaving tomorrow mid-morning, and unless anything significant develops over the next few hours, I'm going to retire this day and sit with my goodies packed and nowhere to go... til tomorrow! :o)
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And I just got off the phone with Verne, we both agree today's a stay at the hotel type day; i.e. home. We'll touch base again around noon to discuss local possibilities, but we both agree that we can't even find a reason to pretend to chase beyond the local area seeing tomorrow's action is right here. I'll update again at noon with any changes. Til then, back to bed I'll go!
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I think the closer to home target is going to be my play today, if there's any play at all. Extreme southeast Kansas has the best (used loosely) chance of any real severe weather today, and by no means does it take my breath away. A very strong cap remains in place across most of the target area through today as expected. And even in SE Kansas, there ar eplenty of issues, including last night's mentioned spread in temps and dews which will yield not-so-great results. While I'm still inclined to chase today, it won't be beyond the borders of my resident state.
Tomorrow and possibly Monday have potential again here in Colorado. Tomorrow looks more promising for the northeast corner of the state and Monday could be a Wyoming/Nebraska Panhandle setup. With focus shifting north and east for midweek, I'm hoping to finally break the chains of Colorado and really get on the road.
Chases over the next couple days would result in out and back type drives seeing as I should remain close enough to avoid the hotel bill. However, after Monday's possible chase, I may opt to stay out on the road to avoid backtracking on my way north and east. With that in mind, I could stay overnight anyplace between Cheyenne, Wyoming and North Platte, Nebraska.
I'm awaiting Verne to get up and discuss with him the prospects on today before making the final decision to basically call off today's chase. There's really nothing which gets me going for anyplace beyond 300 miles that's any different than something within 100 miles. I'll let you know what's ultimately decided.
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Friday, May 19, 2006
I think I wrote an entry earlier in the month regarding the night before a chase trip. Well, this one's different; this is no longer an out and back trip. I can now enjoy the time in the field at my leisure with no concerns over having to be back at any certain point. Tomorrow morning when I leave, its unknown when I'll be home. It could be a couple days, it could be over a week. In any case, I'm packed and ready to go. And very excited.
I'm waiting the evening updates from SPC in regards to tomorrow. I'm planning on being up and on the road before 7:30a as I'll be meeting with Verne and Michael on the road between here and Limon. From there, we'll embark on Day 1 of the official Mayathon chase trip. It'll be so nice to get out!
Tomorrow's not looking stellar by any stretch of the imagination! I think just getting out of Denver is more than enough reason to embark tomorrow. I have two areas in mind for tomorrow..
Area 1: Closer to home in Eastern Colorado and Western Kansas. ETA shows weaker CINH in the area, which will be a big issue tomorrow (the cap). Obviously moisture will be a big issue tomorrow that far west, however, the higher terrain supports good storms with TDs in the 50s; no need for 60 up there. I think the ETA is well overdoing the moisture for the area, so I will remained highly concerned of that for this area, however, it bears watching. CAPE values nose into the Western Kansas area with numbers approaching 1000/1500, but again, moisture return to that area will be a big factor. Also the depth of moisture isn't great, so even if there is some, mid-levels may not be as juicy as we'd like.
Area 2: Southern Kansas into Northern Oklahoma. Bigger cap equals bigger problems, especially if forcing isn't around to help break the cap. Much hotter temps in this area with values approaching 100 degrees in places. ETA progs moisture into the mid 60s which I still believe is much higher than what they'll actually see down there. Temps in the 90s with TDs in the 60s still create a large spread which will keep storm bases higher than one would like to see. While I think tornado chances are low all across the board, I think area 2 is more limited for tornado potential than area 1 mainly due to oragraphics favoring area 1. Obviously the higher moisture creates better CAPE values which are high; I think 2500 could be realized with decent shear. Again, forcing and cap in this area are my biggest concerns for severe weather, as well as the moisture depth.
So it'll be interesting. I favor the area in Western and South Western Kansas simply because of distance. Being on the road by 9am CDT means an arrival in Salina around 3pm, not much time for adjustment, particularly heading south. SW Kansas can be reached by the same time and could practically get us as far as the OK Panhandle where better moisture could reside. We shall see.
Mayathon begins in less than 12 hours! Let the chaos begin!
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Looks like a fwe of us here in Colorado are going to break our vacations in tomorrow in Kansas with the marginal setup upcoming. Monday's turned into a potential Colorado chasing day, so odds are I'll be heading back this direction for a local stint before creeping north to await the more promising midweek setup. I'll update more in a bit as today I need to hurry things to completion. I'll check into data and what-have-you later today.
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Thursday, May 18, 2006
Now I'm sure this is the last thing he wanted me to do, but I want to welcome our good friend, Chris Rozoff, into the blogging world! He opened up ihs blog today and of course, I'm going to be the first to say here it is! :o) Sorry Chris, couldn't resist! And no worries, I don't think there's a blog online that carries 24/7 excitement. We look forward to future posts and hope there's a lot to post about in the coming weeks!
http://hydrodynamicinstability.blogspot.com/
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Things are still coming together and chasing is finally looking more and more promising.
Days of severe weather have crept into the picture starting as early as Saturday into Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. While I'm not planning on chasing those areas on this day, I am eyeballing Sunday and beyond for possible chases.
I've been kicking around the idea of heading out two days before the event so I can dip my toes into neighboring states to cross them off my list, however, with chasing prospects scattered over the next few days before harboring themselves in the northern Plains, I'm leaning more toward the chasing aspects and hope my travels take me into the uncharted areas. With that, I'm considering a Saturday departure for a target on Sunday. If by some chance Saturday shapes up into something worth-while, I may head out of town midday Friday. In any case, I have full intention to be on the road a least a full day before the first event.
I will be keeping close eye on things from here on out as I attempt to get a grasp on what the coming days hold. It's getting closer now! :o)
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Wednesday, May 17, 2006
Some graphical hope issued this morning reassures the idea that chasers will indeed be chasing next week. And happily for me, it looks as if I'll be stepping foot in a part of the country for the first time come Monday; the Dakotas.
While its still several days out and hard to pinpoint ATTM, it does appear as if my first chasing of Mayathon will be in the uncharted areas in the Northern Plains, namely South Dakota and possibly North Dakota. Never before in my life for any reason have I been to either of those states, so I am greatly looking forward to striking two more off the list of traveled through states in my life.
Preliminary plans will have me on the road the day before the first setup. With today's 4-8 Day Outlook showing Tuesday and Wednesday, I'll be on my way early enough Monday to arrive in a timely fasion at my base city so I can enjoy a quiet, relaxing evening before breaking out the gear the next day.
However, seeing as I've never been to either of the Dakotas, I'm tossing around the idea of heading up on Sunday to do some sight-seeing and probably cross into North Dakota as there may be a chance I may not make it up that way while chasing. If I do, great, but I imagine I won't have the time to stop road side and snap away several pictures of me at the state signs.
I'll keep you posted on the evolving of this scenario, but I FINALLY can up my chasing alert. Ensambles are also pointing out a somewhat active pattern unfolding beyond this, so hopefully things will get moving for a decent stretch of time!
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Tuesday, May 16, 2006
Things are starting to gain some hope for next week has the models have this ridge being pushed aside so the trough sitting off the coast can actually try and move in. It certainly doesn't look like anything through the weekend, so my chasing plans probably won't solidify til at least Sunday. I've got some weekend plans in the air to visit with old friends, but will wait a couple more days before I start putting things into place mainly so I know when I should return if I choose to leave.
Everything is ready to roll, so I'm just waiting on the weather now. Nice to see some hope upcoming and get me back into chasing mode.
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Monday, May 15, 2006
I got a good laugh out of a chaser blog which was posted over the weekend. I was originally going to just let it slide, but seeing the reaction it brought out, I thought I'd at least post a comment.
First, there's been some talk about my chasing in the rental last weekend. And while I'm not surprised to see the lashing out of attention that has gathered, I thought I'd post (again) that the rental was rented LONG before I had planned to chase (two weeks plus) to attend my Dad's wedding. And yes, while it was totalled while I was chasing, I certainly did not rent the vehicle with the intention to total it out. After all, why would I spend $6700 cash for a vehicle of my own to chase in, specifically for chasing, then turn around and kill off someone else's? Sure, why not, but me and hailstorms aren't exactly strangers, but its not like I made an effort to total out the car. I've taken all my vehicles into plenty of hailstorms, this happened to be the biggest. Yes, it was nice I had the damage waiver which made the situation a bit more laughable, but I would also like to point out I had originally declined the waiver til the salesman, making his sale, offered to drop the price and advise me to go with it "just in case I get caught in a hailstorm or something". So yeah, with that, I opted into it. Insurance fraud? Hardly; I certainly didn't drive into that storm on purpose with the intention to destroy the car. Think whatever you'd like about that, I could honestly care less. It happened, and its over. And as for the video part of it, I won't spend much time with that. I sell video, its part of the hobby for me. Get over it. I have plenty of hailstorms on video which I have sat under. Oddly enough, I never made a hail claim on my last car, and there were plenty of dents to claim. Yeah, I guess I'm a fraud. Bottom line, yeah, I got a laugh out of it. The situation which unfolded was hard to not laugh at. Convenient, perhaps. But that's what happened; not intentionally by any means, but I made the best of it. And for that comment on abandoning the vehicle to continue chasing; I left it behind at a Police Station with the permission of the officers on duty and informed them I would return to pick up the vehicle later in the day, which I did. The next day, I was at the event for which I had rented the car weeks earlier for; my Dad's wedding.
I want to thank those of you guys who jumped in on my behalf. As I've said a hundred times before, half the enjoyment of chasing is being around the people I chase with. And there are a lot. I'm sorry to see such anger and detest from a small group of people who feel the need to turn this event into such a big deal. Like with everything in life, shit happens; fortunately there was enough on my side to make this particular event a bit more enjoyable in the end. So with that, I say get over it guys, focus on something much more productive, cause in all reality, I'm hardly worth the effort.
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Sunday, May 14, 2006
Estimates for the Ridge of Death 2006 breaking down range from this weekend all the way through the first days of June. While this is really discouraging, its something I was planning for with the entire month I have set aside. There are a grip-load of people who planned two weeks during this time and are probably thinking twice about it. Many of them will be returning home from the Plains within the next 10 days and will likely see very little if anything in the coming week.
As my good buddy Verne Carlson said in a well-written summary of what's going on, there are a few of us fortunate enough to be close enough to the Plains where we can enjoy the quiet from our own homes and make use of the time Nature is leaving us with. Which right now, looks like plenty. While I have picked up some shifts on the side for the mid-part of this week, I'll probably take some personal time during this stint and make a mini-vacation or various small trips out of it.
So with no real hope for anything in the coming days, I'll probably sit quiet and let the time pass and see how things evolve over the coming days. As much as I'd like to be on top of things, I may avoid keeping tabs on the mid-range models on a constant basis just to keep from torturing myself constantly. And right now, this is all torturing enough!
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Saturday, May 13, 2006
I've tossed my name into the hat of chasers who have bumped their opening day of chasecations back. With the GFS showing the ridge o' death hanging around til at least the end of the week, I've opted to hold off on my official departure til later in the week as well. With backup plans late to materialize, I have opted to pick up some work hours between my two jobs on Tuesday and Wednesday just to prevent myself from getting bored sitting at home. I'm not going to work beyond Wednesday as the end of the week is showing signs of changing the pattern, so by Thursday, I'm hoping to have an idea as to what's happening.
So in any case, I've officially bumped my initial departure date back from Sunday to Thursday. And while I don't think Thursday will be the first official chase day, I may use Thursday to get into position for the weekend, which hopefully will start to evolve in a good way here before too long.
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Friday, May 12, 2006
The 2006 Mayathon chase page went up as of 5 minutes ago. On Sunday, the unrestricted period begins, which right now looks very quiet. Limited moisture return from the Gulf will leave chasers sticking to the higher terrain of Eastern New Mexico, Eastern Colorado, and Eastern Wyoming where moisture can be limited and storms can be great. Will be keeping an eye on these areas til some moisture can again reach the plains and this ridge goes elsewhere.
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Thursday, May 11, 2006
Temps dropped into the 20s last night prompting a Freeze Warning for the entire area. This following a morning where light snow fell on us, so one has to wonder.. what in the heck!
Three more work shifts on two more days is all that stands between me and Mayathon 2006. I'm working one of those three as we speak on campus and enjoy a day off tomorrow before working a short 4-hour shift on campus in the afternoon followed by another 4ish hour shift driving pies. I clock out before 9pm Saturday and my unrestricted chase period will officially begin.
Tomorrow, I will change out the index page to the Mayathon page which will contain most of the vital information in following me over the next month. Links to every day will be available on this page starting from May 14 and going through June 11. Only those days where I chased will be linked as the rest will remain unlinked but listed. Other info including SPC outlooks, blogging links, and the most recent blog entry will also be included on this page. I'm making final touches on it now and it goes online tomorrow in conjunction with SPC's Day 3 Outlook which will cover the first available chase day for me.
The models aren't very promising in the near future as the GFS has us sitting beneath a pretty persistant ridge through 10 days. Obviously anything that far out can and usually does change, but such a major pattern shift is hard to see happening with this kind of consistancy. This is exactly why I freed an entire month cause there's a distinct possibility that I may not get out of the immediate area in the first week if such a pattern holds true. We'll see, though.
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Wednesday, May 10, 2006
Springtime in Colorado means only one (or a dozen more) thing... weather is crazy! Last night, it snowed, yes, it snowed. And while there really was no measurable accumulation, there was some wet snow on cars and dirt areas this morning when I headed off for campus. Again, nothing to crazy, but enough to let you know that we still live in Colorado!
FOUR DAYS!!! That's all that's left before my unrestricted season begins. I take my last final in about 3 hours and I finish with classes for the semester. A couple more work shifts stands between me and my chasecation, and fortunately, things look quiet in the chasble areas through the weekend and possibly beyond. This means I can squeeze in those last work shifts before Sunday without missing out on much in the Plains.
As for planning, once the first chase looks imminent, I'll plan to be on the road early the day before to allow plenty of drive time and a relaxing evening before the following day's events. Unless the target area is someplace we can get to in less than 4 hours, I'll be more content with driving out the day before. The only exception to this will be if Sunday pans out to something, in which case, we'll have to leave early that morning. Otherwise I want to avoid being up before sunrise if at all possible.
Four more days... now its starting to kill me! :o)
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Monday, May 08, 2006
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