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Tony Laubach's Storm Chase Blog
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I am now within 14 days of my official chasecation! A busy week upcoming which will eliminate half of that time very quickly! Next week is my finals week, which leaves me obligated to stay here in town on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. I will be in Midland, Texas for a wedding this coming weekend; leaving on Friday and returning on Sunday. I'm renting a car for the weekend, so any chasing I do will be cautious and only if its in the area.
My new toy arrived yesterday. With the deal I got from a fellow chaser, I opted to put out the up-front cost in getting myself into Mobile Threatnet. I'm going to get it turned on next week which may allow me to only have to shell out the monthly cost for one month. Since my chasecation goes through June 11, I may wait til May 11/12 to get it activated and I'll have it through my chasecation. This will be a huge addition to my gear and I can't wait to bust it out!
The counter on my front page is showing just over 16 days remaining til my 2006 Mayathon officially begins. With my last final exam on Thursday night and my last official work shift ending the same day right before that exam, I could theoretically kick off that trip as early as 7pm on May 11, which sits at almost exactly 2 weeks from now. I'm still planning on picking up the extra shifts on Friday and Saturday just to give me one last work hurrah, but if the weather says otherwise, I can be out for a setup as early as Friday.
The excitement is getting hard to contain, which ironically enough is showing in my lack of chase planning for setups over the weekend. While nothing is screaming huge, tomorrow has potential in West Texas and Southwest Oklahoma; a target I could easily make leaving tonight. But with the trip getting so close, I no longer feel the need to be on every major setup. Before I know it, I'll be chasing unrestricted and these 1000 mile marathons can become a thing of the past for the rest of the season.
My service engine light came back on last night and the error code points to the oxygen sensor again. With my non-chasing trip to Texas next weekend in a rental, I may opt to do all final repairs, including the sensor, over the weekend I am gone. Fortunately, the repair list is short with the oxygen sensor being the big thing. I may have the brakes serviced just to get that in line with everything else. But she should be ready to roll come May 11. I have tinkered with the idea of replacing the sensor myself, but being as mechanically challenged as I am and the compact space for which I have to work with in the engine area of my van, I'm not 100% on doing such a simple task myself. Remember, I am a computer nerd, not a gearhead!
So the excitement mounts! Only a couple short weeks stand between me and my unrestricted month of chasing. I hope things in the chasing realm keep relatively quiet during this time which will allow for full focus on the other things going on such as finishing this semester. There may be a couple windows of chasing time for me in the coming 10 days, but I think I am going to restrict myself from these 1000 mile overnight marathons which I have done more than enough of this season. 0 comments
Just about every chaser has one particular tornado they remember. One which beyond all others, remains with them. Some of those chasers experienced them first-hand. Others are storms they studied; watched unfold on TV; or read about in history books.
Fifteen years ago today, the town of Andover, Kansas was hit with an F-5 tornado which killed 13 people and injured 350. The tornado's lasting marks fell on the Golden Spur Trailor Park where 11 of the 13 died. It was on this day where my obsession with seeing severe weather began. Sitting in my home in Circleville, Ohio, I watched the video streaming out of Kansas on The Weather Channel. The most captivating, and without a doubt the most dramatic footage I have seen to date remains to be the video shot from McConnell Air Force Base. It was that video which lead to my obsession to see these amazing events in real life. Thus my chasing passion was born. Fifteen years later, that passion continues to grow from that wide-eyed boy who watched the videos fifteen years ago. 2 comments
I think most of us are still recovering from the hangover of Sunday's chase. I ran into Jon V. on campus this morning and we both agree that we should've just gotten a hotel overnight Sunday and returned home yesterday. Obviously had we done that, we probably would've chased, but with what he said, yesterday was probably hell for those who had to work Monday morning. I'm still feeling the after effects of Sunday in the form of a pretty hefty headache, but am slowly plucking along. I'm not sure how many more of these types of chases I want to do in the future, but with only a couple weeks to go before Mayathon begins, its hardly of concern to me.
Yesterday's snow did bring a chance to do some video for The Weather Channel. With the snow that came down in the evening, I went out to Belmar and shot some video which began its rotation in last night's late shows and was used hourly this morning as well. Below are a few stills from the aired video..
Only 18 days left til Mayathon 2006 begins. Between now and then, I have enough school stuff to keep me occupied. Aside from the weekend of the 6th, I will be limited to local chases. The weekends could hold some potential, but my best chances for chasing will fall between May 5 and May 7 where I'll be in West Texas for the weekend. Beyond that, I'm going to patiently await the start of the vacation.
Small list of things to do between now and then. I need to once again replace the external speaker. Radio Shack's mini-speaker gets a D- grade as this will be the second one I've gone through. Its not very durable and as apparent with two of them breaking, obviously isn't built to last long. The only saving grace is its sound quality and easy mounting which has more to do with my van than the speaker itself. I may opt to swing the radio body around to prevent the wire from having to bend back around, but I shouldn't be experiencing these issues.
My check engine light came on after a full-up on Sunday's chase. I went to Autozone yesterday and checked it out. The error came from an oxygen sensor, but when cleared, the light never came back on. My thoughts were something simple and likely wouldn't require replacment. Fortunately, I was right.
Baron is ready to be shipped and I am going to make payment on it later today. It should arrive easily by the next week and definately before my Mayathon trip. I'll be well equipped this season.
A few other small things may come up between now and then, but most everything has checked out well. The home stretch before the trip is upon me and I'm going to hunker down to get everything cranked out before the real fun begins. However, one modification I may opt into is having along a third or forth person in the van. While I have budgeted for the higher gas prices, these trips of 3 and 4 people have been awesome for budgeting. Even if I can get a week with that kind of company, I'll be in really good shape!
Lastly, kudos to Amos Magliocco and his score along the Red River on Monday. I completely relate to his chase schedule that day and envy the fact that in June, I can leave work at 2pm and be in position within an hour's time for storms. He nabbed the other reported tornado of yesterday in Cotton County, Oklahoma. You can browse his blog for his reports. He was also out on Sunday and apparently was in Wakeeney about the same time we were. Small world in terms of chasing! 0 comments
I uploaded the pics and wrote out the log for our chase yesterday. You can check it out by clicking here. I want to say thanks to Jenn for coming along and I hope she'll enjoyed herself enough to want to come out again. She took some excellent pictures, some of which I posted on the log and many others can be found on her site. Thanks also to all the rest of the gang who turned an otherwise uneventful weather day into a complete blast! It once again reinstates why I always say its the people you're with that makes this stuff so great.
The weather today is quite the turn-around here in Denver. Snow fell this evening and came down rather heavy for about an hour leading to about an inch of wet accumulations before it tapered off to flurries. Temps will rebound a bit tomorrow into the 40s before jumping back into the 60s and 70s for the rest of the week. The weekend holds potential for storms; severe or not remains to be seen, but maybe a chance for lightning or some local storms which I missed yesterday.
Today's setup definately busted in terms of tornado chances as there was a 10% risk for tornadoes. Only three have been reported today, one of which was incredibly captured by helicopter near El Reno, Oklahoma. Beyond that, it looked like a hail/wind event across Kansas and Oklahoma. Definately made me feel a bit happier about heading home last night. 1 comments
I'm close to bed as the caffine I drank down since Limon is wearing off, but I had enough in me to write a quick entry indicating we made it back to Denver safely. Quick stats; 974 miles in 19.25 hours which makes for the second quickest mileage in my chasing career. I am now over 7,800 miles for the season and just shy of 49,000 for my career. Taking a quick glance over storm reports; two things jump out at me. First, NO tornado reports anywhere in the US, let alone are target area. Second, the Denver Metro area saw more hail than we did on this trip. As I said with the earlier post from Wakeeney, isn't it ironic!
I'll have plenty to post later today as I took a ton of pictures, including a few of the first lightning shots of the 2006 season. Many thanks to the couragous group of people who endured today's slim chance to spend a Sunday doing what we love. Jon Van de Grift and his girlfriend; Verne Carlson and his son, Michael; Alan, Tom Dulong, Jennifer Brindley, and myself. This four in a car thing is outragously effective; not including my initial fill-up, this whole trip cost me a total of $60 out of pocket. With gas as high as it is and me logging my first $40 tank, this may definately be the way to save this season from the rising prices. We had a blast, the company definately makes these trips!
So, stay tuned for the incoming trains, rekilling roadkill, a 60 degree temperature change, and 974 miles of all sorts of goodies... AFTER I SLEEP IT OFF! 0 comments
A funny thought for all eight of us who are sitting in Wakeeney, Kansas; SPC's Supercell Composite is showing a 4 over the area which we are... AND right on top of Denver! :o) Isn't it ironic... don't you think!
Still hanging out; SPC has issued a SVR T-Storm watch for the area and we are currently under the extreme northwestern part of that watch. Many are also contemplating the chances of tomorrow in Southern Kansas and wonder how many of us may hold out for one more day. 0 comments
Thanks to another friendly face at a local Best Western for allowing us to take over the parking lot. The new Best Western of Wakeeney, Kansas has offered us the shade of their covered parking to sit and wait for the afternoon show. I imagine we'll be sitting here for a couple hours waiting for things to get themselves together. Skies are clear, though, which is cause for some concern, but its still early in the day and things are still coming together. We'll probably wait it out here as long as our welcome mat remains open!
This morning's glance didn't provide as big of a smile as last night, and to be perfectly honest, I was questioning SPC's original thinking of 5% as far south and west as they had it. This morning's outlook came about as I thought in terms of correcting that, but was disappointed to only see a 2% risk for tornadoes across Central Kansas.
Current surface observations are showing mid 50s TDs in southern Kansas riding a weak Southerly and Southeasterly flow. Much to my surprise as pointed out by Shane Adams, moisture in Oklahoma is a bit higher than the models were going for at this time. Why this creates and hope is that perhaps there could be a slow advection of that moisture northward along the warm front. If we can pool above 60s TDs in that area with temps holding in the low to mid 80s (more likely upper 80s), we may have an unexpected surprise. Landspounts aren't terribly uncommon on days like this, so its something else to look for.
Upper level flow isn't all that great being how its fairly weak and may allow for storms to rain back into themselves. While I do think the spread between temp and dewpoint is a player today, I think the weaker flow aloft may be the biggest concern.
Logistics are also playing a role as we have 8 people split among two vehicles, so a Sunday chase so close to home split among 4/car is hard to pass up in itself. We'll be heading out from here and will be on the road by 9am. We figure on stopping for gas, lunch, and data in Colby around noon MDT (1pm CDT). I'll update from there. 0 comments
Last second plans finalized themselves this evening for tomorrow's action in Central Kansas. Eight of us from Colorado are going to pile into Verne's Subie and my Chrysler and venture out I-70 into Kansas tomorrow for what we like to call "close to home chasing". Great Bend, Kansas seems to be the early agreement among chasers for tomorrow's target destination. Most of us are still awake simply cause we want to see SPC's first Day 1 which should come out in about 45 minutes. But fortunately tomorrow's alarm goes off at 7am as opposed to 4:45a, which will allow me a chance to get a decent night's sleep. We figure on returning late Sunday night.
I haven't had a chance to glance at anything beyond SPC and a few AFDs from around the area. Today's activities kept me from the internet all day and my cell phone's lack of battery will vouch for that as I've been on the phone with half the chasing world it seems. Slow storm motions and isolation definately look as good as they have all season, so any storm we do get on should hang with us tomorrow and hopefully keep us out of the fly-by-the-seat-of-our-pants chasing which we've been accumstom to all year.
Jennifer Brindley makes her chasing debute tomorrow as a couple years of wanting to go will finally land her in the ride as she'll be with me, Jon Van de Grift, and his girlfriend, Allison in the White Lightning. Verne Carlson will be driving his red subie with his son, Michael, Tom Dulong, and Alan Covelli. We found the secret to beating the gas prices; pack as many in the cars as we can. Gas split four ways a piece will make this a very cheap trip.
Anywoo, have 30 minutes to kill, so I might as well make the most of it. Need to install my extra Captain's chair in the van to accomodate the 4th person in the van tomorrow. Everyone's meeting me here between 8:00 and 8:30 and we'll probably catch up to Verne and crew on I-70 as they're meeting on the north side at about the same time. I'll try and make an update from the road via the net, but as always, stay tuned for text messaging updates as well! 0 comments
Potential exists for chasing both Sunday and Monday. While neither day has me really over-the-top with excitement, I'm limited to chasing Monday as I am committed to covering a friend's shift Sunday evening in return for allowing me to get out last weekend.
Monday has been freed up completely and my yes or no to chase that day rests soley on what the weather wants to do. I'm going to try avoid getting too far out on Monday, so if trends continue to push my target further east and south, I may elect to enjoy the day off at home as opposed to pulling yet another 1000 mile marathon.
Sunday's setup has some potential, but again, I'm not completely gung-ho over that. There's a pretty stout cap in place over most of the area, including Kansas while even stronger further south. Shear looks all right and instability not bad, either. However, it seems as if the best forcing will be along the front as it pushes south, and cold front storms typically aren't known for the best chasing. And nothing in SPC's Day 3 wording has me chomping at the bit. Originally, Sunday looked more like a day to chase Eastern Colorado, and while it still is possible, even that has deteriorated. With Sunday's target from Hays eastward, anyone chasing that day would be in position for a two-fer for Monday's action, which is looking more and more like Central Oklahoma as opposed to further west like I had originally hoped.
I'm about to make a rather big investment in chasing gear. With sales from eBay, a few DVD sales, and some other video money, I have aquired enough on the side to afford to dish out the up-front costs of WXWorx. Advertised on Stormtrack, a chaser was selling his system for $790 with shipping; he knocked off $25 in exchange for a DVD, so I'll end up paying $765 for the setup, which is several hundred cheaper than new and even after rebates, I can't beat the price. I'm working out some details with PayPal as we speak and will likely send payment for it the first part of next week. I'm hoping to have it before my finals week kicks off and have it ready for my trip. This will add a wonderful tool to my arsenal, and with a plan at $50 a month, won't stretch my pocket book too much after its initial costs.
I advertised many times about shelling out the money for this system thinking how in a couple years, Wifi, WiMax, and cell phones would likely cover enough of the US to make such an item like WXWorx rather useless. But seeing as I am getting a pretty decent deal out of this, I think I can make up the up-front costs fairly quick. We shall see! 0 comments
The Weather Channel's series 'It Could Happen Tomorrow' aired a special Sunday night covering the possibility of a major flash flood in Boulder, Colorado. That show aired several shots from stock video I have taken and I pulled the stills from various scenes and linked the chase log (where available) to the event I chased from which that footage was pulled!
I've been catching up on the weekend chases from around the chasing realm and noticed several expressed frustration with the chase as many missed at least one of the two notable tornadoes of the day by minutes or like us, by miles.
Frustration in chasing is an inevitable part of the hobby. I can easily vouch for this seeing as I've logged just shy of 7,000 miles on 7 days this season in which there were 68 tornado reports (SPC); none of which I was part of. And that's not counting the day after chases where nearly double that amount of tornadoes were reported and the majority of last year where frustration was the word of the season for me.
But its a trade-off, and exactly why I tell people who want to get involved with this hobby to the extent some of us do to be weary of this issue. I advise them to have backup plans, or better yet, a secondary reason for chasing in the first place. Obviously the weather is numero uno, but one better like road trips, venturing to the corners of the Plains, etc to fully appretiate this hobby. Otherwise slumps like this will undoubtly be their chasing undoing.
I love this hobby; show passion for it; and will continue to do so til its impossible for me. Slumps like this are normal and expected. And Saturday as we were flying south and east, fighting and endless barrage of rain and wind to try and get where we needed to be, I felt the feeling of dread, the "here we go again" feeling. And its hard not to, but I stop and think about why I'm here, and enjoy the company of those who unknowingly remind me of that. Watching as five of our group ran across the Missouri River bridge to Iowa in a massive downpour then returned soaking wet. Thinking back to the laughs back in Grand Island before the storms went. Thinking back to getting a big hug from Katie who had just sprinted from the Spud State of Idaho to enjoy the weather and our group. I am reminded where the thousands of miles go and what I ultimately get out of this hobby.
And it shows in what I do. It shows in my reports, my highlight videos, my stories. Its more than the weather for me, and while I can't ignore the fact that weather makes up about 75% of why I do this, I keep plucking cause of who I chase with, what I do, and the shear fact that I can brag about traveling thousands of miles to places where most people I know will never even step foot in. Regardless whether its some poe-dunk town or not is beside the point, its the fact that I was able to get out. That's what means most to me.
Sure, I'm frustrated; feel like I am due, but I also realize that all it takes is one day; a May 12, May 29; one day to make a season. And I realize days like that are hard to come by, but when they happen, all the frustrations vanish as quickly as tornado chances on bust days and I am left to sit in front of a fast food dinner at 11pm cause we chased and celebrated so late that our steak dinner destination closed up shop. I never think of quitting this hobby, and nor will I ever, no matter how many miles it is between tornadoes.
Does this make me a bad chaser? Na, forecaster maybe. Bad luck, perhaps. But not a bad chaser. I have too many loves within this hobby that its hard to frown when I think about it. I'm just happy to get out and get the chance to be out. My biggest bragging right has always been my mileage and how far I travel. In the end, I guess the weather will always fall second to that because it is why I'm there, and as long as I am not under blue skies, I find a reason to be happy. And if I am under blue skies... just so long as there is someone to share in the misery, in the end, I'll crack a smile!
Less than one month remains before I get released from the real world for a month to chase Nature all over this country. The countdown is getting smaller, and my eyes are growing just as fast. None of this will matter very soon!
I have updated my website with the log from April 15. You can view it here. I may have a few pics to add later on from the trip home, but all-in-all, its completed.
This chase was one of those which you came out disappointed with what the weather presented. We thought our target was good but we were a bit too far north in the end. We played the cold-core setup and quickly watched the transition away from that as stuff to our south along the dryline buldge seemed to be the better play as several tornadoes were spotted south of I-80 and even further south than we were.
I can't wait til May, the real season. Things are a bit more clean-cut with setups as opposed to now as storm speeds slow down and things become a bit more "classic". Its hard to say what the next couple of months hold for chasers, but as I wrapped up our April chase this far north into Nebraska, I questioned how much of my Mayathon trip will be spent south of I-70. I may break in the Dakotas for the first time this year, cause one can't help but wonder after chasing this far north so much already if the real season will keep us in Kansas northward. 0 comments
Tom Dulong, James Caust, and myself intercepted a number of storms starting from Grand Island and working our way into Sidney, IA. We chased in convoy with a load of Colorado chasers including Chris Rozoff, Verne Carlson, Katie Burtis, and others from the Colorado area. Between the four cars, we covered a lot of ground today. Meeting in Grand Island, we hung around as the dryline approached from the west and began our eastward movement which turned out to be a bit too late as storms fired well ahead of the advancing dryline and put us in a position where we originally thought we were ahead to having to play catchup.
We intercepted our first storm near Polk, NE where we observed a rather unorganized wall cloud and a brief but convincing RFD notch. When it faded, our group split as we continued east in a hurry trying to get in better position to drop south and intercept the growing storms out of Beatrice. We had an intense core intercept near Wahoo where we took some golfball hail being driven into our vehicles at 50mph where our two vehicles (Verne's and mine) spilt again in Ashland where Verne dropped straight south and we stairstepped our way along NE-66 where we spent a good bit of time fighting driving rain and serious hydroplaning.
We converged again near Louisville where that small town of less than 2,000 created the biggest pain-in-the-arse way to get through town. Delorme said we could cut straight through the town and we ended up having to go north out of town, the looping back in on a road less than 50 feet away where we finally we able to get back on NE-66 toward Plattsmouth where we paid our $1.25 to cross the bridge into Iowa where we went one county in before calling off the chase. Verne and crew continued east as Tom, James, and I dropped back down to Hwy 2 and fired back into Lincoln where we opted to stay the night and enjoy dinner at Crackle Barrel.
Definately a fun chase today, but disappointed to see how things ended up evolving. No one in our crew caught any tornadoes today even as the four vehicles ended up in vaarious areas at various times. We rounded out a 684 miles for the day with about 500 to get home; will round out nearly 1,200 miles for this trip upon returning home tomorrow.
Below is the video clip from our core punch near Wahoo; I'll post pictures and a full report tomorrow when I get home. Very tired and looking forward to a full night's rest.
Tom, James, and myself made it very quickly to Grand Island from Denver. We left the Park 'n' Ride in Brighton at about 6:30am and pulled into Grand Island at about 12:45p CDT. We're sitting at the Holiday Inn off I-80 awaiting Katie and watching the CU to our west start to go up. Screaming southeast winds and advecting moisture are encouraging us as we awaiting initiation. SPC has an MD out for our area and we seemed poised where we are right in the path of the triple point. We're in the best place to be right now, so hopefully we'll see the best.
Tom Dulong and his friend from Austrailia will be accompaning me into Nebraska tomorrow morning. We're going to meet at the Brighton Park 'n' Ride at6am where they'll jump in with me and off to Grand Island we will go to meet with Verne, Mike, Chris and company. Katie Burtis is going to pull one of the craziest stunts I've seen in chasing history and drive out from Idaho AFTER she gets off (after midnight), meet with a friend in Cheyenne, and blast east into Nebraska. Off to catch some Zs before tomorrow's escapades. Updates may be few and far between pending time, but I'll do what I can to keep updating via texting when time permits. Goodnight! 0 comments
Work issues have been finalized and I am just awaiting word on who I will be chasing with. Jon V is taking the opportunity to shoot some film in the mountains, so I am awaiting word on a friend to see if she'd be interested in accompanying me. Otherwise, I have Tom Dulong and his friend on stand-by and will chase with them in the 'White Lightning'. Hoping to have all plans wrapped up within the hour. I'm hoping to be on the road by 6am tomorrow where I'll likely meet Tom between here and Hudson before blasting up I-76 to I-80 where I'm leaning more towards the cold core as current SFC obs are indicating weak moisture return up north. We shall see how it evolves tomorrow. 0 comments
Tomorrow's setup is starting to look more and more tempting. The models are still well out of the loop with each other, thus making it difficult to disect them for a target area. Doing some mileage calculations, I'm thinking Lincoln, Nebraska as a target destination as it can be reached in 7 hours at 70mph from my place in Lakewood. If we're on the road by 6am, we can make it by 2pm CDT.
Last second planning going into things, and there's a chance it may be worth leaving tonight and squeezing a few hours in for tomorrow. We'll play it by year. I'll run a forecast midafternoon. 0 comments
With the crazy morning out of the way, I've finally had a chance to glance over things in regards to Saturday. Out of the way, though, this morning. The accident is now closed; all legal issues wrapped up this morning, so that's FINALLY over and done with.
Second, the van. An unexpected surprise this morning lead me to take my van to the shop to get her checked out. The issue I had this morning seemed to have disappeared a couple hours later when I returned. A loud humming noise and several of the dash warning lights (brake, oil, check engine) came on and stayed on. I left the van and swapped vehicles for my court run, then returned home a couple hours later to see all the lights now off, but the humming remained. I drove it down to my local mechanic and the humming seemed to disappear. Restarting the van in front of the shop, nothing. I have doubts whether they will be able to replicate the issue or not, but seeing as I needed an oil change anyway (7000 miles on my last one), I figured I'd have them take a look at it anyway.
Assuming nothing serious is wrong (or if it is, can be fixed by tomorrow), I'm cautiously keeping my ears and eyes open for Saturday's setup. If you buy into the GFS, I'll be staying home watching a Rockies game. If you believe the NAM, I'll be eating at Wendy's in Salina by noon. Both models are way out of sync with each other, which pending on how you look at it, could be good or bad. But its bad if you're a forecaster trying to determine which is the right one.
The GFS has the low and our target well north and east into Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa. The NAM has things further south and west, giving a likely and much more feasable target near and just east of I-135/I-35 in Kansas. If the NAM starts to verify more and the GFS can start to come to terms with the NAM, I think I'm going to start leaning back into chasing on Saturday. Otherwise I'll sit this one out.
I haven't gone into specifics or details yet cause I want to wait another couple of runs before I start to make my target. With the diverence of the models so much, its hard to take stock in anything, let alone specifics on CAPE, moisture, shear, etc. While I do have concerns of the moisture being overdone and temps well into the 80s creating large spreads in temp and dewpoint, its something that could work out. The cap remains an issue, but could actually play into our favor if enough forcing from above moves overhead in the right areas. If this occurs, it'll limit the threat of everything exploding up and into a massive cluster of storms right away and may actually keep isolated supercells going well into the evening.
Its definately bears watching and will be a last second choice. I won't up my alert status til later this evening as I get a chance to see which model is going to take the helm. And of course, whether or not I have a ride will play a role, too. 0 comments
Saturday's system continues to leave good targets further east than I would like to chase right now. In fact, most of the threat area sits across the entire state of Iowa. While the weekend chase would be fun and time permitting, its getting hard to justify the money for these marathon chases. If I can get a target lying about on (or west of) a line from roughly Lexington, NE to Hays, KS to Pratt, KS to Clinton, OK, I'd be more inclined to run with it right now. I'm in saving mode now a month away from the blood and guts of my season and don't want to blow my savings on more marathons. 400 to 500 miles one-way would probably be more than enough right now.
Today is FINALLY my court date from the accident which I had back in December. I'm hoping by the time I arrive on campus this morning that this entire thing is over and done with. Five months is a bit lengthy to have this hanging over one's head. Wish me luck! 0 comments
Saturday has lost some of its potential since yesterday. Models seem to be trending toward a massive cap in place over chasable terrain and leaving the only real shot for storm development where the low will be tracking, which at last look, was well off to the north and east into Iowa. And even up there, moisture and capping were gonig to be issues. Further south, moisture still doesn't look all that great as the Gulf hasn't really opened up nor does it show signs of doing so. And the cap, very warm in the mid levels which would definately put a hurting on thunderstorm chances. Will still keep my eyes on it as the week progresses, but I may tuck this away and await the next one. 0 comments
Saturday continues to warrent interest for chasing possibilities in the Central Plains. Models are continuing to indicate a negatively tilted trough plowing into the Central Plains over the weekend. Current trends have it a bit further east than most of us would like, but keeping in mind the previous setups which were slowed and backed further west, I'm thinking the same would apply. A pretty hearty cap seems to be in place, though, but if broken, wind fields and decent moisture could aid in severe storm development. Still many days out and a couple days shy of my "diving into models analysis", but definately worth keeping tabs on this week.
I'll shift into Slight later today mainly out of lack of time to go in and change my images. Weekend chases between now and my chase vacation are perfect as the keep my missing work and class time to a minimal. A Saturday chase would cut into a four hour pizza shift on Saturday night and pending my target, I could very well get away with leaving before sunrise Saturday morning (assuming not a pre-4:00pm initiation).
This day last year marked the best tornado day for me in 2005. Verne Carlson and the rest of the CO Gang enjoyed this day immensely last year as nearly everyone from our state was able to get out and revel in the day's storms shortly before most of us spent the night in Kansas when I-70 was closed to the blizzard on the cold side of the system. Amos Magliocco (his truck in the foreground) and others from around the country also enjoyed this day. Definately one of the top days of 2005, and certainly the best of the year for me. 0 comments
Nothing too terribly exciting to report on the chasing front. Keeping my eyes pealed for the next chance to head out which looks like it could be this weekend. My court date for my car accident is Thursday and I hope I can FINALLY put that to rest nearly 5 months later. After Thursday, I can once again open the floodgates for chasing as my obligations here at home start to dwindle outside of work and remain spaced out enough to where I could accomodate them to work around my chasing.
Amos Magliocco wrote a good entry over the weekend (he always writes good entries - you can tell he's a writer) mentioing a bad forecasting habit of early season chasing where we tend to over analyze upcoming setups simply because we have the time to do so. As I've mentioned many times already this year, I typically don't start looking at things for real til about 2 to 3 days out. I do keep my eyes pealed for things in the GFS which alert me to the potential, more so the time frame, for chasing in the upcoming days. But to dive headlong into things so far out is a pain. While my reasons are that the changing situation typically means that any forecast beyond 4 days is useless, Amos brought up a good point in that having too much data up til the Day 1 means you lock yourself into what you've seen up til then, even if the current stuff dictates otherwise. While my reasoning stems from my laziness to sit and make such long-term forecasts, the end result is about the same. I just know that more times than not, what I see 5 to 10 days out will change pretty substantially up til the Day 1.
What am I looking for 5 to 10 days out? Trends; obviously I want to make sure that whatever I saw on the models 10 days out looks somewhat consistant with what I see 5 days out. Things have a funny way of disappearing from run-to-run that far out. When I start to get closer, my next concern is making sure I can chase at all. I spend more time rearranging work shifts, classes, and other obligations, or at least having them on standby just in case. When we get within 3 or 4 days, I then start to make my analysis; typically I like to wait til the ETA can get its hands on the event, then I start making my comparisons between models and narrowing down where my direction of travel and estimated time on the road. When things get within a couple days, then I start naming cities and finalizing my plans; deciding whether or not I can/need to leave the night before or if I can head out the morning of. The Day 1 always brings last minute changes, so if I've been preaching a city for 3 days prior, odds are, I'll never see that town!
Its a tricky game we chasers play, but its a love I can't deny. In any case, I'm eyeing the weekend ahead. Saturday looks to be the target day; I'll starting diving into things no earlier than Wednesday. 0 comments
History in the making over the Midwest and Mississippi Valley. Many tornatic supercells moving across Central Tennessee with one taking dead aim on Nashville. SPC's latest outlook has a graphic which I have never before seen which highlights the severity of this situation out there. I'm copying and pasting the entire outlook here to archive as I have a hard time believing I'll see anything like this again..
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006
VALID 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS...AL AND
TN...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MS...AL...TN...GA...LA...KY...IL...IND...OH...VA AND NC...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MS
VALLEY...GULF COAST...OH VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SRN OH VALLEY. AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES...IN ADDITION
TO THE DAMAGING STORMS ACROSS TN AND KY...NUMEROUS TORNADIC STORMS
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL INITIATE NEAR
THE MS RIVER AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER-LOW OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHING ENEWD
ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION. THE JET IS ENHANCING LIFT AND
VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS KY AND TN WHERE NUMEROUS SUPERCELL STORMS ARE
ONGOING IN THE NOSE OF THE APPROACHING JET. SFC AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A LARGE VOLATILE WARM SECTOR WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY OVER A
LARGE AREA OF THE MISSISSIPPI...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION TO THE LARGE WARM SECTOR AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES...WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW IDEAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
CONDITIONS FOR TORNADOES OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. IN ADDITION
TO TORNADOES....VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. THE FIRST ROUND OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS
WITH A SECOND ROUND OF VERY INTENSE STORMS JUST ABOUT TO BEGIN
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
1930Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING CUMULUS FIELD
OVER NRN LA...SERN AR AND NW MS. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...RAPID SUPERCELL INITIATION SHOULD
TAKE PLACE JUST AHEAD OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHING INTO THE
AREA. AS THE JET PUNCHES EWD ACROSS NRN MS AND NRN AL...SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED STRONG TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS. AN OUTBREAK OF STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NRN
AND CNTRL MS...NRN AL AND SCNTRL TN. AS THE STORMS TRACK
ENEWD...SEVERAL LONG-LIVED VIOLENT TORNADOES NOW APPEAR INCREASINGLY
LIKELY AS A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET FEEDS NWD INTO THE TORNADIC STORMS
ACROSS NRN MS...NRN AL AND SCNTRL TN. THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE AS INTENSE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MOVE
ENEWD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN TN...NRN AL AND POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST
AS NWRN GA.
BY THIS EVENING...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS A
LARGE AREA FROM THE OH VALLEY EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. A FEW AREAS OF ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL OUTSIDE
THE HIGH RISK AREA FOR STRONG TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
EXIST OVER SRN IL AND SRN IND WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST AS
SUPERCELLS INITIATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
LA AND CNTRL MS. THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING AS STORMS TRACK EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
AND SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
MAY DECREASE SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY...ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
I'm very happy to also add into yesterday's sightings one from one of our Colorado buddies. Chris Rozoff and company intercepted a tornatic storm yesterday in Northern Kansas as well. You can check out their log here. Congrats Chris! You're the first from our state to score this season! 4 comments
Busy day in Kansas today as there were several dozen reports of tornadoes, most in Northern Kansas. Video pimp Doug Kiesling was one of several chasers who scored today. Below is his photo from the tornado in Hanover, Kansas earlier this evening.
I was able to make use of my time here in Denver and got some quieter video on TWC. Below are a couple caps from that gig this afternoon.
All-in-all, not a bad day for chasers. The Hanover tornado seems to be the one of the day as several other chasers, including Mike Hollingshead, nabbed that beauty. SPC has about 20 reports listed with several more outstanding I do believe, most in Northern Kansas as I said with a few in extreme Southern Nebraska and a few in Oklahoma. Definately not the day it was pegged to be, but one which fed a few chasers well. 0 comments
Storms look like they're trying to go in Northern Oklahoma ATTM. I think those have a better chance of remaining isolated as they seem to have a more easterly component to them as opposed to the I-70 storms in Kansas.
As pointed out by a fellow forecaster, the storms in Kansas will probably start facing issues of the anvils being blown into their northern cousins, in which case, you're going to quickly start to see what many of us in Kansas did on March 30.
Seems better dynamics, CAPE, and shear lie in Northern Oklahoma; those sitting in the ITC area may considering heading south and east to get in position down there early on as I fear they, too, may get lined up later as the forcing increases. However, wind fields ATTM indicate these storms will have a better time remaining isolated. 0 comments
I am a jinx! Talking to Doug last night and telling him that my not chasing today would mean scoring for those who are able to get out. When I woke up, I saw the first outlook of the day from SPC and saw the moderate risk with 15% bubbles. I was okay with that. Then I got to school and saw this...
I feel sick. Guess my only real source of relief is the fact that storm motions in this area are going to be racing at 50+, which doesn't make things easier. However, the shifting to the west hurts, too.
I now know what I am going to do my graduate thesis on, my impact on severe weather outbreaks. Perhaps if they cloned me and dropped me into every major city, they'd be set for life.
This of course IF this verifies. I'm not 100% sold that it will happen, but it doesn't help ease my stomach. As I'm sure those those living in those areas are probably a bit queazy; my prayers and hopes are that it doesn't verify completely; not cause I'm missing it, but because no one wants to see people hurt from this. Hopefully this repeats March 30 and doesn't go hog-wild with tornadoes like expected. 0 comments
I want to welcome the viewers of Channel 7 to my storm chasing blog. You're in for quite a treat as you'll get a chance to follow along with myself and two of the world's best chasers. I hope you stay around for the ride and come back frequently to check in on all of us. I am very excited about the opportunity to share my life's greatest passion with people, so I hope you enjoy keeping tabs on me as much as I enjoy posting about them! It's going to be a very exciting year.
Tomorrow's setup definately has the makings to be another major outbreak of severe weather which has been an almost weekly event since the first week in March! If this is any sign of things to come, it will definately be a very busy year for myself and other chasers across the U.S. I won't be out tomorrow due to a variety of reasons, but would imagine many of my friends and other chasers will be.
This system has the potential to create serious havoc in areas from Eastern Nebraska southward into Texas. A variety of targets exist in this long area; namely in Eastern Nebraska and along a dryline which will drop south into Texas. Storms will fire in the afternoon and quickly become severe. Tornadoes, some potentially very serious and deadly, will be very possible all along this area.
My virtual target for tomorrow would start me off in Columbus, Nebraska; about 30 miles northeast of Grand Island. That area I think would be a good starting point for players along the northern targets. Further south, I think someplace along a line of far Eastern Kansas into Northeast Oklahoma and into Northeast Texas; I think capping will be stronger down there, but storms will definately fire. My biggest concern for tornadoes is again in the Missouri area later in the afternoon tomorrow where I think another potentially deadly outbreak is likely.
As I said again, I'll be virtual chasing this tomorrow from campus as I set my sights for the coming weeks and allow myself a chance to recover from the nearly 6,000 miles I've already logged this season. Best of luck to those chasing tomorrow, and my hopes are that what does happen leaves those not interesting in seeking out the weather alone. 1 comments
It seems as if with every major setup this year came a westward adjustment in the models' placement of it in the days immediately before the event. Once again, we're seeing it happen as the area near the low has started to slide into play a bit more in Nebraska for Colorado chasers. However, even with the westward placement of the system, I still won't chase it. The setup reminds me a lot of March 30, and I'm not sure I want to barrel into Nebraska only to chase storms at 50mph into Iowa. Regardless of where the western most area of risk lies, the inevitable still remains; I'm chasing beyond that. The only major difference with this system, we're on the right side of daylight savings time, which gives an extra hour to chasers coming from a distance to get into position. Or as some chasers like to argue, we also get an extra hour of heating. *shakes head*
I'm going to stick with my plans for the week and weekend and probably not chase anything beyond the realm of an afternoon setup close to home (i.e. less than 600 miles round trip). Even as tomorrow has potential to be a big severe weather day, it isn't favorable for chasing. Perhaps if this were on a Friday where I had no classes or work to fiddle with, I may be more open to this, but I'm not going to go a third week in a row of missing class and rearranging work shifts. I need to save those for later in April and early May before my chasecation starts and setups become more chasable. Tomorrow's action looks a lot like everything else I've chased after so far this year, so I'm going to use my 30 day climatology and call this one off. My friends here in Colorado should go, however... I'm beginning to find a good thesis which may start getting backed by science as to how me being there kills off good chasing chances. Notice when tornadoes happen, when I'm on my way home. Can you imagine if I don't go out? Gangbusters! LOL
A final note to this morning's blog before I undertake my morning assignments, today is April 5, and aside from the March 27, 2004 conference chase, today would be the earliest day in the regular season where I've chased. With that in mind, glance at my mileage so far this year. Its time to let time catch up a bit. And by the way, I fully anticipate to be chasing sometime between April 16 and April 23; every year since 2002, I've chased in a date range from April 18 to April 20, busted every time. Will this year repeat itself? Hahaha! 0 comments
I cheated and went ahead and peaked at the upcoming days against my will. Seems as if the biggest risk for severe this week will be well east of I-35 in areas that I'd rather not venture out to this early in the year. If this were in the thick of my chasecation in May, I'd be all over it, but in trying to cut down on my marathons, this is well out of range in terrain not completely well suited for chasers. I'll be easier to let this event slide and keep my eyes open for closer setups in the coming weeks. 3 comments
My luck with the moderate risk continues to be a bit down, but tons of fun were had in yesterday's epic distance chase in which three brave men from Colorado endured 25 hours and 38 minutes cooped up in the same mini-van over 1500 miles of open road covering four states and several time changes. Hell, I'm still a bit unsure as to what time it is thanks to the multiple time zone changes and the official start to daylight savings time. Oh yeah, we chased a storm, too!
We got in shortly after 7 this morning after driving for over 24 hours straight. This chase set a new record for distance traveled in shortest time for me, and probably will be one that stands for a long time to come. I went ahead and completed my website updates this afternoon, so the chase log for April 1 is up and ready to be viewed. This trip sticks me within a couple hundred miles of the 6000 mile mark already this season; and its still only the first day of April. I'll probably find myself looking for more reasons NOT to chase in the coming weeks simply out of need to save my pennies and relationships for my big splurge coming in just over a month.
As for upcoming chase plans, I know an active week is in store for the country, but unless I get a close-to-home setup on a day I normally have off, I'll be less inclinced to jump all over it. I've done my breaking in and certainly got my SDS out of my system, but its time to save myself for the real blood and guts of the seaosn which officially kicked off yesterday. My van needs a breather as well. I've already put over 6000 miles on an oil change I got about 4 weeks ago; if I'm not careful, I'll be repeating all the maintance I did to it back in the first week of March. As Jon and Verne will probably vouch for, she's definately a terrific chasing vehicle and this is exactly what I bought her to do. But vans are people, too, and like people, she needs a break.
I have a busy couple of weeks upcoming outside of weather, so I'll probably get lost in those things before thinking about doing any major chasing again. If I can be out and back in a day (not a 25 hour day) and its a day I'm normally free, I'll definately head out, but 1000 mile plus chases are probably out of the question for a couple weeks.
Good to see everyone out and about yesterday and I look forward to spending some more time in the fields with you all! Hope everyone made it home safely. 0 comments
Verne has arrived and is looking for a parking space. Jon V is on his way. We're packing the van and getting ready to head out. We'll make a quick gas stop on the way out and stock up or juice, then scream out toward Oakley then south towards Liberal; making adjustments out of there. Aiming to be in Liberal around noon. 0 comments
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