Friday, March 31, 2006
Going to load the van for tomorrow's quickie. Verne Carlson and Jon Van de Grift will be accompanying me in the van tomorrow as we sprint out for Southwestern Kansas starting at about 5am. Got the final word a few minutes ago which gave me the green light and I began to make the calls and shoot out the emails. Alert status shifted to severe and we'll be on the road first thing in the morning. Three people means three ways on gas and splitting driving, which gives napping a chance and saves me from putting the entire 1000 miles under my belt. Time for some quick cleaning and a nap before tomorrow.
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As promised, I have updated my website with logs from Wednesday's bust and Thursday's crazy linear chase. Thanks again to Verne Carlson and Mike Carlson for the company AND for pushing and pulling my van out of the mud! Also, thanks again to Mike U in Dodge City for his nowcasting!
With the preseason ending today and the regular season starting tomorrow with possibly a chase, I want to look back at the month in which I set an all-time March record for mileage at 4,275 and total chase days (5). This was definately the busiest I've been in this preseason month as I typically don't let myself go like this til April. This could be blamed on a number of things, including the fact that I am still trying to get aquainted with my new ride, new gear, and new setup. I've been able to work out quite a few bugs and get a lot of my gear tested now and have been able to make the changes accordingly as I go on without affecting when things really get going. The passed couple days, I was able to check out the Sprint modem connection which worked very well, as well as play with my new cruise cam and cell phone. If I am chasing tomorrow, I probably won't have anything new to play with except the charging USB cable for my phone which arrived while I was gone. Tomorrow is going to be such a quick in-and-out that it'll be a marathon chase in itself, and likely the last big one I do for a couple weeks as I resettle into the home stretch of the semester. I kept pretty busy in March, and with the miles I logged, I'm expecting to break the 20,000 season mark for this year, which will also set a new record for chase miles in a year. An okay start all-in-all, but definately moving in the right direction as each chase improved a bit more over the last. But, playtime is over and its time to get serious. Hopefully my official start to the 2006 season will be with a bang and continue straight through June! Again, I'll know tonight whether or not I have a chance to kick off the 2006 season tomorrow!
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I'm about to get working on the logs from the last couple of days, but wanted to make a quick update in regards to the potential to be chasing yet again tomorrow. I've downgraded the severe alert from yesterday to a high alert for tomorrow as I am awaiting word on whether or not I'll be able to get the day off tomorrow from my pizza shift to get out to South-Central Kansas tomorrow for what's looking similar to May 12, 2004. I won't know anything til after 9:00 tonight, so I'm basically holding my breath. I've been in touch with Jon V and Verne about this, and I know Verne, who suffered yesterday's run with me, wasn't planning on being out again so soon. We'll see how it all plays out. Right now, SPC has a 45% hatched moderate out extending from roughly St. John, Kansas southward into the Panhandles. My target would be the northern most extent near the triple point; someplace between Pratt and Medicine Lodge. It's about 7 hours drive-time to Medicine Lodge, so I'm aiming to be out the door as soon as 5am tomorrow (6am CST) which would get me into Pratt roughly around 1pm. I'll update briefly my plans tonight once I get word on tomorrow, so stay tuned. My next blog will be notification of the completion of my logs from Wednesday and Thursday.
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Thursday, March 30, 2006
Stopping for gas in Limon at 794 miles for the day and nearly 1500 for the trip so far.
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Just passed thru Colby. Stopped for Taco Bell and gas (not related) in Hays.
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Following Verne back to Denver. Should be home before midnight tonight.
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Heading west on 70 to regroup with Verne and Michael in Salina after a disappointing afternoon. Storms went up and lined out so fast that tornado potential took a dive. Saw a disorganized wall cloud
on a tornado warned storm north of Salina. Lots of small hail, too. Updates and pics later.
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Heading south out of Red Cloud, NE. May be intercepting storm near Smith Center, KS within the next hour.
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Pick a point, any point. Today seems like a shoe-in for anyone from the SFC low down the dryline into Central Oklahoma. I can't imagine we'll position ourselves any further north than this, in fact, I'm flirting with the idea of sliding south by about an hour as the SFC low seems to be progged a bit further south with the latest runs that yesterday's. However, I'm convinced we won't have to go far. Our wish for the day is to get the early low stuff,then hop south along the dryline til it blasts east of us. Going to be a free-for-all today with wicked storms flying at mach 1. Good luck to all and be safe!
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Wednesday, March 29, 2006
Made it up to York, Nebraska with Verne and Michael where we're going to settle in for the night at the Best Western. Remember how last night about this time I was saying that in 24 hours, I'd end up in a completely different area than I originally said I was. Well, here I am; about 150 miles north of where I said I was going to be. If its any consolation, I'm along the same line!
Many thanks to Mike U in Dodge City. I hooked up with him this afternoon when I arrived in town and spent over an hour looking over tomorrow's setup. When you spend most of your forecasting time looking over internet available models, you don't realize how incomplete it is til you visit an NWS office. I was schooled today as Mike U flew through image after image and I watched like a hungry kid as he overlayed the various products on top of each other. I felt just like a kid in a candy store; and I soaked up everything. While today's weather was a bust, the stuff I learned in that one hour almost topped anything I had ever got from any lab, class, or convention.
When the digital smoke cleared, so did our target; cold core it is. I called Verne and Mike as they moved east on 70 and informed them of the forecast I experienced. They concurred; we met in Salina and headed north on Hwy 81 to York where we are now.
Many thanks to Mike U for taking the time to show off his talents and tools. I completely felt like a kid in a candy store and I took in everything I could possible gather. It was awesome! Many thanks, Mike!
So with that, we're going to settle in for the night and prepare for tomorrow. Our window seems to be sitting between 18z and 21z east and northeast of the low. We'll be there!
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Calling today a bust and am heading northeast on Hwy 56 to Salina where Ill meet Verne and Michael. Going to cold core it Nebraska style.
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Skipped thru Garden City without stopping. WX radio reporting dryline near Dodge City. Am heading east to Dodge City.
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On US Hwy 83 heading south to Garden City, KS. Will stop there for data, gas,and food.
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Tuesday, March 28, 2006
I'm a few minutes from bed, but was reading through my last several blog entries and laughing at myself. I flip-flop so much prior to an event; cold-core, dryline, cold core.. hehehe.. I tell you, half the fun of chasing is not knowing where you'll be 24 hours from now. And odds show that I typically am nowhere close to where I say I'll be. I'm sure by this time tomorrow, I'll be in the same boat.
I just got done chatting with fellow Colorado weather weenie, Chris Rozoff about the upcoming days. He, like Verne, can't get out of Denver til later in the afternoon, but I'm hopeful he will join Verne and company for what's looking to be a crazy day shaping up for Thursday. SPC's Day 2 which just updated has a huge moderate risk from Texas into Iowa; two targets IMO; the northern part of the kidney bean, and the southern part of that. The models have slowed the system a bit, having the low over NE Kansas/SE Nebraska; not nearly as far east as previous runs. That has lead me to again flip-flop my attention back to the low. Shear is excellent in that area; moisture not so much. But cold cores can be deceptive; lapse rates are where its at with those. And with that shear present, I'm certain someone can do well southeast of that low on Thursday. I'm hoping I'm in that group of someones that day.
Still no clue where I'll end up tomorrow evening. My early afternoon stop in Colby may be brief as I'm eyeing the Dodge City area; closer to moisture and decent shear. If storms fire, they'll spin down there. Further north I think moisture will be an issue, so I'm thinking DCC is a safe bet; can move anywhere from there.
Goodnight all! I'll update again (briefly) in the morning before I head out. Have my alarm set for 6:45! Yeehaw!
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A quick thanks to Jason Boggs who's PDA I bought last week; he replied to my help question and pointed me in the right direction to get the GPS working with the PDA. The test this afternoon was a quick and easy success. I will have my new toy functioning for the coming days.
As for work and such, everything is caught up and taken care of. I turned in my assignments which are due Thursday; washing my hands of class obligations. All work shifts are covered, including the early morning shift I left unattended. The extra morning time will allow me an early arrival to my I-70 base in Kansas where I can decide what to do with myself. I'm hopeful for arrival in Colby by noon CST which should give me a couple hours to adjust; sit still, or head to my overnight place for Thursday. I'll have the options. Tomorrow has now become an official chase day.
Storms will have an easy time going severe IF they can develop. The dryline will be present, but not all that strong, so forcing won't be as much as one would like. If a storm can get up, it'll rotate with the shear present. CAPE values are decent over the area in Kansas, so I'll just keep my fingers crossed for something to fire. Concerns are cloud cover; temps need to hit about 70 I think for storms to go; TDs in the lower to mid 50s would be sufficent moisture as well. If they go, I think they'll go severe with hail as the big threat. Tornado potential remains a bit low, but could certainly be a possibility it higher moisture values can creep in. Storms will remain ongoing through the nighttime hours as the low level jet kicks in. This will allow me a chance for my first lightning shots of the season after dark where I'm hoping to meet with some of my Colorado buddies who are making a later departure from Denver where we'll position overnight someplace along I-135 to make our decision for Thursday.
As for Thursday, my hopes are to avoid chasing too far to the east. I think a modest starting point along I-135 between Salina and Wichita will give us a fair chance of being in position for tomorrow. My thoughts are a NE jog from I-135 towards NE Kansas/SE Nebraska/SW Iowa/NW Missouri closer to the low, but I'm also keeping a close eye on a southern target in Oklahoma; maybe as far as OKC. We all know of the chase terrain in Eastern OK, so my hope is sticking with the northern target. I'll check things out in more detail tomorrow for Thursday and my immediate attention is tomorrow's slim chance. Thursday looks to be an all-hell breaking loose type of day; where the best place is remains a mystery... and of course, the big IFs which surround it. Gotta love forecasting!
I shift into severe alert in a couple hours as my departure from Lakewood will be between 8a and 9a tomorrow morning.
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Even with the potential for severe tomorrow, I think I will keep my plans the same for heading out of Denver. I'll work in the morning and shoot east on I-70 for Kansas. When I hit Oakley (256mi/3.5hrs), I'll probably make a stop and see what's happening and decide whether or not I'm in a position to chase. If I'm far enough east and things haven't kicked off quite yet, I may elect to drop south and position myself to chase til dark, starting with areas from Garden City (336mi/4.8hrs) eastward.
Thursday's cold-core target is almost running away into Canada so it seems! The ETA has the low flying out of Colorado and northeast through Nebraska into Iowa. I definately would rule out making any ventures that far north, which means I am going to skip out on the cold core setup and play the dryline in Oklahoma. Storms look as if they'll be flying on Thursday, so it'll be interesting.
So my initial plans; will head out to Oakley, KS tomorrow, leaving DEN by 11:00am MST (noon CST) and fly out to Oakley, hopefully arriving in Oakley before 4p CST; by then, I'm sure the first round will be well underway, but we'll see. If I elect later that tomrorow's potential looks too good to pass on, I may opt to get out an hour or so earlier. We'll see. I'll post more later!
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Monday, March 27, 2006
Perhaps I'm looking into blogs and postings a bit too much, but there's a lot of people who are downplaying the cold core setup for Thursday, and for reasons which I think are the main reason why they aren't chased more. My only target for Thursday is near the low unless it completely removes itself from the picture. I'm not about to turn away from a cold-core type setup this time of year. While I have no complaints against the dryline setup down south, I think the better play is near the low. And unless I see something that screams at me from the south, I'm not going to abandon the low. Verne and I did that on April 5 last year and got burned.
Wednesday's potential is opening my eyes enough for me to ponder the chance to chase. Also, Sunday is looking rather inviting this far out. I'll be keeping my eyes on that just in case I can keep it close enough to home to get back for work on Monday.
As for Wednesday, there is no real massive change of plans; I just shift my departure a bit earlier in the morning as I feel I'll be within 5 hours of where I need to be for a target Wednesday.
A fun situation unfolding, that's for sure. I may get up in the morning and pack up for an early Wednesday morning departure.
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I moved into moderate alert this morning as things continue to point towards a chase for mid-week. Thursday is definately shaping up to be the big day much to my delight. What this means for me is I'll work my morning shift on campus and head out of Denver between 11a and noon (after my shift) for an overnight destination between Salina and Wichita. I'll pinpoint that more in detail once I figure out how far north/south my Thursday target will be. A couple places of interest for Thursday; the dryline setup in OK and the Triple-Point region in KS. While things were looking more cold-core earlier, it definately has the option of either. Things do look good for organized severe weather, but the mode and timing remains to be seen. Unidirectional shear indicates the possibility of a squall line which keeps me leaning towards the triple-point area where winds will have a tendancy to back a bit more allowing for more directional shear and hopefully a better chance for slower moving and more isolated supercell-type storms with a better probability of tornadoes.
Beyond Thursday, things are a bit hazy. I feel the severe weather threat will shift far enough east where I probably won't chase, thus making Friday a return home day and wrapping up what will be close to a 4,000 mile preseason. I'm planning on chasing Thursday with a small chance to catch something Wednesday. SPC has a 'See Text' over Western Kansas, but my late arrival and unfavorable conditions prevent me from calling Wednesday an official chase day. If I get on something, I'll run with it; otherwise I'm going to enjoy a quiet, leisurely trip along I-70 before making an early night at a hotel someplace along I-135.
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Sunday, March 26, 2006
I am happy to report that my van's overhaul is now at 90% completed. I FINALLY installed the Jottodesk after weeks of getting sidetracked. Drilling through the metal of the seat rail was the easy part; it was reaching under the seat and behind the rail to secure the nuts that proved to be the biggest pain in my butt. Below is a picture from my cell phone I took after installing the desk. I'll post some more "professional" shots later as dark has settled in and I had a small list of things to take care of before everyone closed up shop for the night.
I also took care of the external speaker issue. My thoughts are that we tied the wire so tight that it was pulled out of the back of the speaker. In any case, the good folks at my local Radio Shack allowed me the exchange and I tested it before leaving the parking lot to insure it was indeed the speaker and not the radio. I'm happy to see I was right. I remounted the new speaker and re-ran the wire with plenty of slack, so I should again have the convienience of the speaker in front of me instead of straining to hear the radio on the other side of my van.
With that, I knocked out the third item of my list of things to do I created after my 3000 mile trip earlier this month. The desk, speaker, and phone-as-modem are all taken care of. The modem issue has been resolved to where I can use it, however, I'm fiddling with the Bluetooth option and am trying to connect via that. The NIC port on my laptop has tentatively been fixed as I think its the hard drive being loose rather than the NIC itself. The vehicle wiring remains to be seen as I haven't seen the problem again since the trip. All that really remains is the mic mount for the HAM radio.
Testing of the Jottodesk is a simple task; just pop the lappy on it and drive. However, I catch a bus to school, so my test of this may not occur til I get out chasing on Wednesday. It appears to be pretty stable, so I look forward to breaking her in.
As for chasing, nothing new to say in regards to it as I have only been home and in front of a computer for all of 10 minutes since running my errands. I probably won't take a good look til tomorrow morning, and assuming current trends continue, will probably up my alert to moderate.
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I'm happy to see my target days moving from Wednesday to Thursday and Friday. While I could easily chase Wednesday, it's less time from work if I leave Wednesday afternoon after my morning shift.
I probably won't start diving into the models til sometime Monday, but it looks like my initial plan will have me leaving Denver sometime around noon on Wednesday, driving to my overnight base and setting up for chasing Thursday and possibly Friday before returning to Denver Saturday before my 5pm driving shift.
Going to spend today preparing for another small trip and get the jotto desk installed. A couple other odds and ends of things to take care of today, but it looks as if I'll be chasing Thursday.
If Wednesday does hold hope, I'll arrange it to be chasing that day, but it appears as if Thursday and possibly Friday are my target days at this time.
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Saturday, March 25, 2006
I went ahead and bumped my alert level to slight as it looks as if I'm going to have no trouble covering works shifts for Wednesday and Thursday. My only obligation for Friday is bowling Friday night, which allows me the opportunity to chase both Wednesday and Thursday; Friday if it looks good to get me home in time for work Saturday night. Still haven't plucked through the models seeing as its still many days out and probably won't jump into them til Monday, but it does look as if one more pre-season chase is in the cards for next week.
As for this weekend, lots to do. Going to get my Jotto Desk installed by weekend's end. Doing some video and website work as well to prepare for the April 1 season start. Also doing some odds and ends of stuff with my recent free-for-all on eBay, including customizing the Pocket PC and readying the laptop for cell phone use.
Looking forward to a second dress rehersal for the upcoming week, so stay tuned.
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Friday, March 24, 2006
Seeing discussion for next week for the potential for one last chase before my official start to the 2006 season. Still waay too early to tell, but it definately warrents keeping an eye on. While it does fall in the middle of the week, it falls in a flexible week for me. I'll wait it out before I start making plans for what looks to be a cold core setup.
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Tuesday, March 21, 2006
I successfully tested my new phone as a modem on the laptop earlier this afternoon and it worked extremely well on the high speed network here in Denver. The trick I found is I have to disable the bluetooth (unless I use it for the connection) while its hooked up to the USB. Once then, it connected in less than 15 seconds and I was surfing the net at near DSL speeds. This will be an excellent addition to my arsenal in some areas. Most notably where the high speed networks exist; Denver, CO Springs, Lincoln, Wichita, Topeka, Kansas City, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Dallas, and Cheyenne. This means I have roaming access to internet while on the road. Slower, closer to dial-up speeds, can be retrieved on most major interstates and highways, which will give me real-time access to ust about any data I can get my hands on while moving (no more Wifi stops in signal areas).
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Monday, March 20, 2006
Well, as with the very few snowstorms we've had this season here in Denver, this one was another HUGE disappointment. I went out on a limb late Wednesday and went for one to two feet, and up through last night, it looked that way. My only concern was getting dry-slotted. That didn't happen, but the storm system split and stayed well off to the south as opposed to the northeasterly movement the models held consistant up til last night and "got a clue" (Denver AFD). And that they did; I have about 2 inches here in Lakewood. Not close to the QPF amounts the models had been going for over the past few days. A real disappointment as every snowstorm this season has been. Not its time to get rid of this crappy winter season and get into Spring.
 Image taken from my new Samsung A920 Camera Phone
As mentioned in the photo caption, I purchased a new cell phone. I bought the Sprint model Samsumg A920 mainly for the High Speed Internet setup in major metro areas. I can also get slightly-higher-than-dial-up speeds in digital service areas, so something huge I wanted. The high speed/DSL speeds weren't on my old phone and I really wanted that feature, so I forked out the cash for the new phone and sold off my old phone on eBay!
I've been a busy man on eBay as well, buying and selling for the chasing season. I have about 9 packages on the way ranging from batteries and TransFlash cards to camera mounts and bluetooth headsets. I'm hoping everything arrives by the end of this week and definately before the first day of April when the regular season starts for me. Still have a jotto desk to mount as well as other things to take care of, so still bunches to do.
And a final note, the website transfer has been completed. My domain and hosting services all moved successfully to GoDaddy from Yahoo. If there's anything missing that you see, let me know!
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Thursday, March 16, 2006
Two quick notes about the upcoming system for this weekend; first, it appears as if chasing on Saturday is pretty low. It doesn't appear that enough instability will be present to plan to chase. However, due to the potential strength of this system, a random storm, possibly severe, could happen.
Snow potential does seem to be increasing in confidence. While the GFS hasn't exactly gotten a handle on things yet, other models are indicating that the low should close off back in CA and slide its way through the 4-corners and into Northern New Mexico/Southern Colorado during the Sunday/Monday timeframe. At this time, it appears as if this storm will only hang around for about 24 hours, but dumping pretty good snows during that time. Again, this is all wishcasting at this point seeing as we're stil several days out, but its something I've now given a bit more concern to.
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Wednesday, March 15, 2006
I just wanted to let everyone know that there may be a 24/48 hour period in which TKSC is down. I have registered with my new server and will be transferring the files and everything else over to that server. While this should be a painless process, there may be a time when the site is down while the domain is being transferred. I will notify again when the site transfer is complete.
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Tuesday, March 14, 2006
I just enabled comments on my blog at the request of several folks who were keeping tabs on me while I was away last week. Its something I've thought about for a while and have decided I'll go ahead an enable them for this season and see how it goes. In the meantime, you may have noticed some broken images, links, etc. I had to revamp some of my template coding to accomodate extra directories, so all those issues should now be fixed. So go ahead, comment away!
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I'm watching the trends for the upcoming weekend as models hint at the potential for a significant snowstorm for the area starting as early as Saturday night. Of course, with any major system this time of year, you get the potential for severe weather out east, another aspect of a complicated set of forecasting that goes with systems this early in the season. The upside to such systems is they're relatively close to home (Western Kansas); the downside is being stranded someplace for the snow on the backside.
Way to far out to get into specifics, but there appears to be some consistancy among models hinting that the potential for significant snow is there. The positioning, timing, and strength of this low will have to be perfect to give us a good shot of significant accumulations. I'll be a few days before one can actually start to make any guesses over such a system, but its something I'll be eyeing over the coming days.
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Monday, March 13, 2006
I finished my website updates a bit quicker than I thought; got the March 11 up and updated the index page with the most current stats. For the record, my 1115 mile March 11 chase fell two miles short of the top ten; the October 19 chase of last year beat it out by 2 miles for the 10th spot, but Saturday's chase was my 13th chase of 1000 or more miles.
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This is more of a checklist blog. First of all, I wanted to update you all on the website-related updates over the past few days. I have nearly completed chase logs for March 8 and March 9, neither which hold much value given the lack of weather I saw during those two days, but none-the-less, they're up and ready to view. I'm working on the March 11 chase log and probably won't have that up til sometime tomorrow when I pull the rest of my pictures from my digital camera. It's a dead link ATTM, but I may get the summary sections up just for a page filler. In the process of that, I've updated the logs page with the 2 working logs and an unlinked mention of March 11. I'll have that completed by the end of the day. Also, I threw up a page covering the Marchathon trip in general, which also contains log links and a couple other pieces of info. I'll be doing some updates to that as well in the coming days. The index page and chase alert status has been brought back to normal. The index page also has been updated to reflect this trip and the embedded chases. And to wrap up my updates, I've added my travel pics to the White Lightning page and Pictures from the Road page; again, nothing new I haven't posted a dozen times already, but worth mentioning. I should be caught up on everything before Thursday.
As for the dress rehersal, came up with a list of things I need to fix/change and things which kicked ass!
First of all, in need of fixing, changing, replacing..
1. External Speaker; I think the wire was pulled too tight and lost its connection, stopped working early in the day on Wednesday while on our way to Leavenworth, KS. I'll try to exchange it at Radio Shack this weekend.
2. Jotto Desk; I never had a chance to mount it before the trip, and while it wasn't anything I missed cause I had the free front seat, I would've enjoyed the convienience of it. Not sure if it'll be a project for this weekend or not, but its definately on the top of my priority list.
3. Vehicle Wiring; I had a couple small issues of the ABS and airbag lights staying on when I would turn on the van. I also noticed none of the power windows worked as well as the dash radio. Simply turning the van off and back on fixed the issue, but I need to address this ASAP to avoid future problems. Not sure if its related to the wiring harness incident, but I'll find out.
4. HAM Mic Mount; Another item of convienience I missed was a clip that I could hang my HAM mic on. I was forced to leave it sit in my cup holder in which it would sometimes fall out. This should be a simple fix.
5. Laptop Network Adapter; I think I have an issue with the NIC port on my lappy which is leading to some hardware issues with it. Since I don't use it all that much, I'd simply like to disable it all-together and purchase a cheapo NIC card to have as a backup just in case.
6. Sprint Phone-as-Modem; This was more on my end as I didn't get my connection setup prior to the trip. I'll take care of that this weekend and have it ready for next time. Service was about what I expected, but March 11 would've been nice to have in Eastern Oklahoma where I did have service.
Things which got kudos...
1. Cruise Control; How I ever chased without this is beyond me! This is the first vehicle I've ever had with it and I loved it to death!
2. Electric Cooler; Worked like a charm! At most, I had 3 Gatorades in there, but all stayed cool. The cooler, which claims 2 hours before ready, was cooling within 30 minutes, which I think was a result of sticking cold things in there to begin with. None-the-less, it'll be something very nice to have for storing ass-loads of drinks in.
3. CB/WX Radio; Nice to have a dedicated radio for WX and not having to tie up the HAM. The alert function is great, which meant I didn't have to listen to Mr. Roboto the entire time.
4. MP3/CD Player; I changed CDs once the entire 3000 mile trip! Another huge perk I'm glad I invested in.
5. Removable Gear; Quick and easy to hook and unhook. I had a plastic shoe box I stuffed everything into at night and took into my room with me. Never had to worry about anything getting yoinked overnight. Took less than 10 minutes to set up again in the morning.
6. Sleeping Room; I saved two nights in a hotel by camping in the van. I find I'll use this feature heading out the night before, or coming home after a chase and want a place to crash. A pad may get introduced as the metal rails for the seats stick up a bit, but all-in-all, it was nice to have the sprawling room.
7. Phone Blogging; I was able to update my blog on the road constantly (service permitting). My success rate was great as only two posts didn't make it out of the more than dozen I sent. Most updated within 10 minutes. An excellent test run of this feature. Picture quality ain't the greatest, but what do you expect from a cheapo camera phone.
8. Gas Mileage; My biggest concern of the trip and I got about what I was expecting. My 15 gallon tank took me over 350 miles consistantly and averaged about 22mpg for the trip. My average fill-up ran about $35 at the current gas prices. Also worth the mention is that I did a great deal more driving on this trip than I normally would.
So I accomplished exactly what I set out to do for this trip. The photography gear got little use, however, but the items I did use seemed to work just fine.
Chasing plans will remain minimal for the next couple weeks as I reset myself and try to avoid blowing my vacation money too early in the season. Spring Break is next week and I'll probably work a ton just to get some extra cash back my way. All-in-all, I blew over $500 during the course of this trip, and if you include the money from last weekend's video, I ended up chopping about $300 total out of my chase fund. Shouldn't be too hard to make that up, so I'm not going to lose sleep. I needed this trip for a variety of reasons, and aside from the weather sucking it up, I got what I was looking for. Next time, I probably won't have new states to visit to perk me up as much. I go for the gold next trip.
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Sunday, March 12, 2006
I think I am going to do a scientific study on my influence of severe weather. Here I am at home and the first major storms of the year and SPC's first high risk illuminate Eastern Kansas into Missouri. I can't help but laugh at myself over this and hope those who score today remember I helped by leaving last night; on the other side of the token, those who are affected forgive me for it!
Two supercells with TVS signatures are blowing over the KC Metro Area; one which has passed through already and another following that one's heals through town. Other supercells developing south of those along the KS/MO border. A crazy March day which is one day too late. God I hope this isn't a repeat of last year for me.
But I can laugh cause its March; and I can laugh cause I worked miracles to get out. This trip was too much fun in the realm outside of weather to let today's events damper it. While I don't have my official mileage tally yet, I went over 3,000 road miles covering 9 different states since Tuesday; 4 of those states I had never stepped foot in prior to this weekend. An experience worth it by itself.
My chasing plans probably won't lead me out on any more marathon chases this month as I put a decent dent in my chasing funds for May. I have ways to make this up, so I'm not going to lose any sleep over it, but I can't bindge here in March; in fact, one could definately say I did that over the past few days. But in any case, I need to save for April and especially May and June.
A last, feeling better note, storms are flying northeast at 55mph in places in Kansas aren't easy for chasing... but best of all, it's ONLY March! I'll post a full summary and finish my chase reports from this week in the coming days. Stop by again by Tuesday!
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Made it home. Wow! What a trip. Updates and summaries in the coming days.
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Saturday, March 11, 2006
Can I make it 7 miles to the Belle Plaine service station on the KS Turnpike?
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Tulsa, Oklahoma at 418.7 miles.
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The storm we were trying to catch on Hwy 412 near Jay, Oklahoma beat us to our intercept Hwy 59. No chance to catch it. I have turned around to begin my trip back home.
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Currently sitting at the Best Western in McAlester, OK awaiting the arrival of Darin Brunin, Dick McGowan, and Mike Deason (sorry for spelling errors). Just finished screaming up the Turnpike and am checking things out here in town. Will probably sit and wait it out here as the storms to the north are well out of our reach.
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Moderate risk of severe continues as of SPC's latest outlook. Will refine target area to cover between Paris, TX and Texarkana. Looks like I should concern mself more with moving north rather than east ATTM. Paris may be a good in between and allow a chance to collect myself there as well.
Will be chasing in the company of some people for today. A few of us from the TESSA conference are about to head out. Darin Brunin, myself, and others will be heading out of Dallas shortly towards the north and east to get ourselves positioned for this afternoon.
I'll chase til dark, then begin to make my way west for home, turning away from tomorrow's potent setup. I feasably could chase tomorrow and hurry home overnight, but too many things calling me Monday morning and I know there's someone at home who wouldn't mind seeing me and my unshaven face! In any case, I'll wrap things up tomorrow.
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At the TESSA conference right now. Will be leaving for Texarkana within the hour.
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Friday, March 10, 2006
Made it to Dallas without any real issues besides the farmer's sunburn I have on my left knee and arm. I'm waiting for my other friends to arrive and we'll probably do dinner and hang on for a bit. Glancing at tomorrow's setup, I find it difficult to believe that I'll be sitting at any convention tomorrow. With Sunday being out of the cards because I need to be back in Denver, I'll probably take one last stab at chasing before heading home. I haven't defined a target yet, but my first move i to get out of DFW; probably head north and maybe east. This setup reminds me of the 2000 setup which brought the Fort Worth tornado; similar day, too! In any case, I've written off the convention (again) in favor of chasing, but I'll enjoy this evening with friends even as there's an MD sitting on top of me! LOL What a wonderful week!
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Shreveport, LA
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Its much greener here in LA than it is back west.
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Thursday, March 09, 2006
I had written a blog entry which fell victim to the blue screen of death. I elected to grab some Wendy's and will post a short version updating everyone that I made it to my Best Western in Monroe, Louisiana where I'll enjoy a full night's sleep before my 300 mile trip into Dallas for Saturday's TESSA convention. As my previous entry said, I called off the chase shortly before arriving in Memphis, TN. I used the daylight hours to add to my list of states I've traveled to. For the first time in my life, I went through Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Below are pictures from the first three; I'll get my LA picture on the way into Texas tomorrow. Today's total mileage was 606.8, most of it coming on my exploration which sent me to my new states, as well as a Craps table in Mississippi in which I did as well as my chasing over the past couple days! *LOL*
In the meantime, I'm going to call my lady, sit in a bath, and zonk out. No wake-up call for me tomorrow! Yeehaw!
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Reports with this line are saying it moving northeast at 95mph! I obviously have given up on getting ahead of it as I am currently stopped in Forrest City, Arkansas to collect myself. Multiple towns along I-40 from Little Rock to here were without power after the squall passage. Fortunately I was able to find a gas station on the south side of I-40 which had power, otherwise I'd be sitting about 60 miles west of here.
Not sure what my plans are for the rest of today; I knew getting up this morning that I was likely going to BE chasing; I did just that. May shoot up to Memphis for lunch, then down to Jackson, Miss for dinner before turning around to begin my westward march into Dallas.
Maybe I'll get lucky to see some action later this evening, but with as fast as this system's moving, I figure to be done.
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Drafting a semi and getting 30 miles per gallon at 72mph. Enroute to Memphis, Tenn. on I40 east.
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Mammatus outside of Little Rock, Arkansas. Continuing on for Memphis.
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Going to be a interesting day. I'm going to head out now for Memphis, TN and try to get ahead of the system and intercept as I go. Storms are flying and will be impossible to catch, so I am going to try and get as far east as I can today and intercept what I can.
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Storms have weakened considerably in this line. Looks as if we may get some small hail and wind with the passage of the blob at the northern most edge of this line. Will continue to monitor and await its passage.
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Sitting at my hotel in Springdale, AZ where a HUGE clap of thunder has probably awaken everyone else. I am awaiting the passage of a swiftly moving squall line which has a tornatic cell heading straight for Fort Smith. I look to be in line for the northern part of this line. Here's a report I posted for various chaser forums..
The extreme bottom cell of this line is starting to exhibit supercell structure and has what looks like a flying eagle signture. Its track looks to take it south of Fort Smith, AR. Currently am in Springdale, AR after a three hour nap; NWS WX Radio awakened me with the severe watch and have been awake since. Awaiting the northern parts of this line to pass on top of me or just to my immediate south in Fayetteville.
More later...
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Wednesday, March 08, 2006
I went ahead and make a quick report from today which is updated through now. Moments ago, I heard a large clap of thunder from the storms barreling along to my south. I lucked out in staying here cause I would've been rolling into Fort Smith in time to get beaten down by 60 plus mile an hour winds. Not sure I would've been sitting happy in my hotel by then, so I'm glad I opted to make the quicker trip here. Leaves me about 200 miles into Little Rock tomorrow, but I'll play it in the morning with an 8am wake-up call.
Just to clear up something I'm sure people are pondering, I did not plan to chase tomorrow when I left Denver on Tuesday. Normally, I would not make such a trip (Denver, CO to Little Rock, AR), so this is well beyond my normal art of chasing. I'm chasing tomorrow simply out of lack of anything else better to do. I'm going to Dallas for TESSA on Friday, but had all day tomorrow off before I would need to work my way back. I figure once I finish chasing tomorrow, I can hunker down wherever, then make at most a 500 mile trip back into Dallas for Saturday's conference. Again, I'm not chasing tomorrow on purpose; its here and so am I! So why not, right! Besides, what a helluva story to tell; Denver to chase Arkansas. Yeah, I love what I do!
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Well, within a huge bust, I managed a first today; my first time into Arkansas! Yeppers, for the first time in my life, let alone chasing career, I'm in the state of Arkansas. I'm bunking down overnight at the Springdale Best Western and preparing for what could be a very long night.
SPC continues their moderate risk for severe weather tonight including tornadoes. I'm in the northeastern fringe of this evening's moderate risk which has mention of tornadoes, large hail, and wind. Could be a very long night as several rounds of severe storms are expected which will take us to damn near daybreak. Will make for a long night and may not promise a lot of sleep before tomorrow's venture.
As for tomorrow, I'm not going to spend a ton of time forecasting. My morning ambition is to make Little Rock and go from there. Hard to say exactly WHERE in the Moderate Onion is the best place to go, but I'll check things out in the morning when I've got a clear head.
As for today, a major bust which seemed to be shared from Texas up through Nebraska. Verne, Michael, and I called it a day in Leavenworth, Kansas where they took off and headed back to Denver about 30 minutes before I ventured south on Hwy 71 to here. It was a tough bust for looking so decent, but it seemed to be a fate suffere across the board. That's what you get for chasing March! But hey, I'm having a blast! I'm in a new state for the first time in my life, and may get to knock a couple more off my list before the end of the week brings me into Dallas for TESSA.
I'll update more later; waiting for Razorback Pizza to arrive and I'll probably vedge for the evening between storm rounds. Ciao from Arkansas!
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Filling up in Neosho, Missouri at 907 miles. Still heading for Springdale, Arkansas.
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Grey sky gunk in Harrisonville, Missouri. 772 miles thus far.
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Sitting in Leathenworth, Kansas at the Holiday Inn Express thanks to the generosity of a nice lady working the counter and allowing us net access. We've made ourselves comfy here for the time being as we're waiting on things to start and break. I hesitate to say that we won't be dropping back south as things seem to be improving along I-70. We're a stone's throw from there and just northwest of Kansas City ATTM. Very strong winds out of the south/southwest right now which I would give my right arm to see shift to southeast. SPC mesoanalysis giving hope to our area as we have decent values in various severe categories just to our south and east. Will sit and watch how things go.
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Cu field on I35 near Lebo, Kansas. Heading east.
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An early rise lead me into El Dorado, Kansas where I met up with Verne and Michael Carlson at the Best Western off the turnpike. I mooched a shower and got myself ready for today's action. We're going to enjoy a leisurely morning while waiting to see how things develop and we can easily move up and down the turnpike as need be. Current surface obs show the dryline moving east, so I imagine an eastward jog is definately in the cards as the day evolves.
After dark, I'm likely going to head south and east and stay overnight in Little Rock, AR. Seeing as I literally have nothing else better do tomorrow, I may opt to chase the setup in Arkansas and Mississippi just for the hell of it. I've never stepped foot in either of those states, so it'll give me a chance to cross off a couple states from my lifetime visited list. We'll see how things evolve today before I start planning that, but seeing as I am not due back in Dallas til Saturday, no sense in wasting the extra day.
As for today, we're going to play ahead of the low and along the front. The winds along I-70 in the vicinity of the front are backed nicely and we hope that as the low moves along, we can stay with it near the front where the winds seem to be backing the best. The RUC is showing a lot of the better instability from roughly Kansas City south and west into Northern Oklahoma (between Tulsa and I-35). The RUC shows a nice vort-max near Ottawa, KS and my thinking is someplace between Emporia and there is a safe bet to start from today. The CAPE axis will be in the area about the time of the best show, and our road options are fair, which allows us to move rather freely across the area. I'm thinking the low will remain along I-70 and the dryline will drop southward from that and run along I-35. Franklin County has my money today. We'll see!
Off to breakfast!
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I elected to stop in McPherson, Kansas mainly cause I was needing a fill-up. I stopped in Colby earlier for gas and dinner, but the pump clicked off at 3/4 tank; I didn't realize til I turned the van back on and said I'd drive til 'E'. I ended up here.
Oddly enough, I'm not sleepy tired after 462 miles on the road and 7 hours. I could probably make Wichita and beyond if I so chose, but I think I'll stick here in the Best Western parking lot where I get wifi and a dark place to crash out for a few hours. Going to break in the Chrysler hotel for the first time tonight with a howling southerly wind and nice moist air within it. Ah, to be someplace closer to sea level.
I'm not going to dive into forecasts right now as I'll save that for the morning, but glancing at SPC's first outlook, it looks as if my target will remain unchanged. I was surprised to see two things; the 10% hatched in TX/OK and such a wide area of 5%. I didn't look at the reasoning as I was just seeing where they had their outlines just to make sure nothing was dramatically changed which would require more road time tonight, but I'll post the graphics here just for my reference tomorrow to see how they differ in their morning outlook. I'll also then be running my own forecast then and will see how they jive.
 
Nothing too exciting on the trip to report, so I think I'll call it a night and get a good 6 hours in. Verne and Michael are in El Dorado, KS and I'll likely meet them in the morning someplace south of here. I'll update again in the morning. In the meantime, here's a shot of where I'll be residing tonight...
Goodnight!
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Tuesday, March 07, 2006
407 miles so far tonight with about 100 to go before I stop for some Zs. About 20 miles west of Salina, Kansas now about to turn south on I135.
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Exam done. Headin out.
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Keeping an eye on Kansas for my buds who ventured out from Colorado today, but it looks as if the sun is setting on any real chances for daytime convection. However, visible sat showing a small area of clearing in Northern Oklahoma/Southern Kansas where my bud Verne and his son are chilling. However, with sunset just over an hour away, whatever's going to pop better go quickly, otherwise they'll be playing well after dark.
I've opened up my options this evening as I am going to try and push Newton, KS. No real reason other than my plans to meet up with Verne tomorrow or tonight if they decide to venture that way. Its not too far out of the way for them and the hotel is relatively inexpensive and has high speed internet. It would be arond 2am before I arrived which is nothing new for me, but seeing as I've already been up since 7am, it may be a stretch. I may opt to do a midnight stop at a Wal-Mart along the way for a food stop and wake-up jont. Otherwise, I'll bunk in the trunk.
Snow... yes, snow! But not for me, and fortunately I won't have to deal with. Two rounds are looking to be in store for the Front Range here in Colorado. Round 1 starts tonight and goes through tomorrow with as much as a foot in and around the foothills. Round 2 comes Friday for the area with possibily just as much snow forecasted then. More systems marching through in this March pattern could easily give us several rounds more on top of that, so we may be in for a snowy month. Doesn't look like a March 2003 repeat, but I could go on a limb and say we could get close to that amount over the coming weeks.
But I don't have to worry about that til Sunday. Just something I wanted to mention cause I'll be chasing the warm side of these systems for the next few days. I start my exam in less than an hour; should be on the road within the next three.
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I take pride in the little forecasting skills I do have, cause when I make a forecast and see others pull in that same direction, it reassures me that I have the basics going for me. Yesterday and this morning, I kept my eyes on Southeastern Kansas for tomorrow, and even said so this morning; "SPC's greatest threat lies along the Red River, but I'm still eyeing Southeastern Kansas ATTM. I'll make a more refined forecast later today once I know whether or not I'll be chasing."
Latest Day 2 from them accompanies me and my forecasting of Southeastern Kansas by bumping up probs to match those of the Red River. But why? Well, I'll head out on my own tangent...
Going from the NAM and looking out 36 hours, a nice 500mb flow of over 50kts cuts a swath straight through OK and extreme SE Kansas. Winds at the SFC still concern me a bit as the model has them all out of the south. However, shear is decent in that layer, but more of a SE flow would definately aid in getting things turning. Good low level flow out of the south will advect some good moisture across OK and pool along the front which will be pushing SE. A low is expected to be in Southern Kansas about this time focusing a triple point in the area in which the shear should be enhanced. If good moisture can pool in the area to keep T/Td spreads down, we have a good chance of seeing tornatic activity along this triple point.
CAPE looks to be in the 1500J/kg range in SE Kansas with values exceeding 2000 further south into OK. My reasoning for not specifically targeting there is the proximity to the low; if the triple point sets up further south, I'll make my adjustment, however, my thoughts are shear isn't that great and concure with thoughts less storm isolation in this area. But with that said, I wouldn't rule out tornatic activity down there, but I think storms will stay better separated intially further north where there isn't quite as much forcing with the incoming wave, but issues with the southward diving front may make isolation a quick thing.
Along the Red River also has some interesting possibilities with the nosing in of the 250mb jet. With the plowing by overhead, I'd say storm possibility is pretty good there as well. Obviously better moisture will reside further south, but I think there's a stronger cap in place down there. I'd consider this an option as well, but think I'll have limited time to drive from Hays tonight and figure the Red River is well out of range.
Pending how Thursday's setup looks, I'll likely stay overnight along the Kansas Turnpike and reposition Thursday. With the waves of systems kicking through, its hard to plan too far ahead, but now that I know I have the time, I'll play it day-by-day.
The dress-rehersal begins soon! I can hardly wait! The van's packed and ready to roll. As soon as I finish my Programming exam this evening, I'll be hitting the road for Hays. Let the 2006 season begin! Yeehaw!
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I rescheduled my Probability exam for Monday morning at 11:15. I'll be on the road by 7 this evening for Hays, Kansas. More updates later this afternoon! Wahoo!
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I'm hoping to know my travel plans in the next three hours. There's a small part of me that says if he doesn't give me the exam today, for him to give it to me next Tuesday, just in case! ;o)
Verne Carlson and his son took off to chase today's setup in Kansas and relayed some vital information for chasers heading out from our general direction who were thinking about heading to Dodge City. US. Highway 283 is closed at Wakeeney, which solidified my trip plans into Hays tonight.
Glancing at today's setup, it has potential if the cap can be broken. Perhaps a good target lies with the tradition of 2004 along Hwy 160 near Harper County. Initiation will be the tough task today, but with all the ingredients present, I find it hard to believe those chasing will see nothing today. My virtual target sits just to the west of Wichita on you guessed it... 160.
Tomorrow has my chomping at the bit. And of course, all rides on my professor's news this morning, but assuming I get out, I'll leave from Hays (or wherever along 70 in the morning) and fly south along 35 towards southern Kansas/Northern Oklahoma. SPC's greatest threat lies along the Red River, but I'm still eyeing Southeastern Kansas ATTM. I'll make a more refined forecast later today once I know whether or not I'll be chasing.
So keep your fingers crossed. I'm going to pack the van and prepare to leave straight from campus just in case. Did most of my gathering last night so all I had to do was haul it down. Going to make the attempt to remove and haul the bench seats up three flights of stairs to save room for my bed in the back. I'll jump on as soon as I can to let you know what my chasing fate is.
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Monday, March 06, 2006
The latest ETA has improved upon things on Wednesday a bit; still looks like Southeast Kansas along I-35 is a pretty safe bet as of now. However, it wasn't the chasing aspect of the latest ETA which grabbed my attention...
At 36hrs, precip starts to fall along the front range with 6hr values running up to about 0.15 inches. Then it gets interesting... at 18z Wed (42 hours), a bulls-eye just east of town with over 0.8 inches followed by a long swath of 0.6 and 0.7 from just east of Denver north and east into extreme Northwest Kansas and Southwestern Nebraska. A general amount of over 1.5 to near 2.0 inches of liquid east of town which could amount to 1 to 2 feet of snow for those areas; easily enough to shut down I-70 which could make a return trip home for Denver-based chasers heading back Thursday a real pain in the butt.
Good, moist upslope behind the front is forecasted over the area, and what originally looked to be south of the Palmer Divide has moved east of I-25 along I-70. That bulls-eye at 42 hours sits right on top of Byers, so based on this, I would say between 14 and 18 inches of snow. If it verifies..
As for me, I still intend to chase, but this adds a wrinkle. If I am unable to get out Tuesday night and have to leave Wednesday at any point, I could be dealing with s | 
