Tuesday, February 28, 2006
Friday's chasing chances are dropping quickly. Glancing over both the ETA and GFS, both are showing cooler temps as a result of what looks to be a widespread precip event as opposed to isolated storm development. The ETA shows a good bit of directional shear over the area, but it's all for none if things are socked in with clouds and rain.
As for Saturday, things are still looking marginal, but not enough change in either direction to shift my decision either way. Wichita again mentions tornadoes in their AFD, so they seem pretty gung-ho over the setup; much more so than I, but curious enough to keep me following their thoughts. OKC also mentioned severe, but they've downplayed their probs a bit. A big issue is the model's placement of the low being so far north and east. As Chris Rozoff has said, hard to believe the models can make out the low's placement this far out, so I won't jump the gun yet. My thinking still sits in Southern Kansas along I-35/I-135 ATTM, but again, not wanting to pull the trigger yet. Saturday is still several days out and I'm still not 100% on Friday yet, either, so its hard for me to make any certain plans til at least tomorrow when I can get a better idea as to whether I'll be chasing Friday or not. Right now, my thoughts are no, but I'm still keeping tabs on the setup just in case. When I wake up Thursday morning, I had better have enough confidence in the setup to leave for Friday. I'll pack Wednesday night just in case.
So again, no major changes for Saturday, but definately falling out of favor with Friday. Still has a chance to pull me out and I'm fighting saying no all-together simply because I have the time to do it and I can easily make Southern Kansas along the I-35 cooridor from just about anywhere in the TX Panhandle.
I'll post again tomorrow morning with my updates.
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Another day, another look. Hiding from the models ended last night when I was coaxed into them with talk of the ' Big Texan' by the same guy who later asked me if I was wearing my Skins jersey when Verne and I cut the van's wiring harness! Haha!
So with my diving into the pasta now, I'm now getting a better look as to what may come of this weekend. I have two days I'm shooting for; Friday and Saturday; neither looking great for a variety of reasons, but here's what my thoughts are as of now..
FRIDAY: A day I'm watching simply out of time-off convenience; my thinking is a target lined in the TX Panhandle. Friday's outlook definately seems bleak, but it bears watching cause I think the conditions could exist for severe in the higher terrain where TDs need as much as Eastern Colorado. SFC features look a bit weak in places, but my real concern is the threat for a widespread, not-so-isolated event over the target area. I'll continue to watch it, but if things maintain their current trends, I may opt to use Friday as a travel day.
SATURDAY: Southern Kansas holds hope for this day. My thoughts are a squall line will be raging through the region, though. With the front, ample forcing will exist along with a rather unidirectional flow pattern which usually spells squall. According to the GFS, moisture does nose up along an axis from roughly North Texas, Central and Eastern Oklahoma, and into South and Southeastern Kansas from just west of I-35 eastward. The GFS also has a SFC Low sitting over Southern Kansas at 0z Sunday, but I'd really like to see the upper level winds get out of that unidirectional flow, otherwise it'll be a raging squall line.
NWS Wichita has an interesting discussion in their morning AFD..
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
248 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2006
BUT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BRING THE REGION SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER /AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER/ COME ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE VALUES COULD BE AROUND 1500 J/KG...WITH MODERATE SHEAR AND EVEN A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER VALUE AROUND 2 ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS IS DEFINITELY A PERIOD TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK.
I'm not quite sure how much stock to take out of that, but it definately keeps one's eyes pealed. Last couple discussions they've had have definately pointed out severe potential on this day, but will it be in the form of a massive squall line? This is a bit closer to the low and because of that, the winds will be better for low level rotation and my thinking is that would be the better play for Saturday.
Still reluctant to pull the tirgger, mainly cause its Friday I'm more concerned about. If I had to choose right now, I'd use Friday as a travel day and skip out on the Panhandles, but I still have about 36 hours before I have to pull the trigger on that. As for Saturday, my thinking is about 50% of me going.
More later...
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Monday, February 27, 2006
For the first time in 2006, I have changed the color of my chasing alert; I'm now in slight. Still haven't jumped into the model pasta, but latest AFD out of Wichita makes mention of Saturday's potential. Between that and my eager attitude to chase, I have elected to set into motion plans to be chasing this weekend.
From Wichita..
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
249 PM CST MON FEB 27 2006
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO RISE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO THE 50S. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOISTURE RETURN SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND AS A DRYLINE PUSHES EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD HELP SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE LIMITING FACTOR RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DAY.
Interesting setup to say the least, and one that's hard to ignore. My obvious pains include will moisture actually make it and how will the winds work out? It's the first weekend in March, so of course I have my doubts. But its certainly a mouth-watering situation for SDS chasers; even more so for myself for reasons I continue to beat to death. In any case, I've upped the alert; I'll be preparing for a chase trip; leaving Denver as early as Thursday night if needed.
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I think most chasers eyeing this coming weekend are in the same boat as me; knowing that this setup is full of not-so-favorable holes, but looking for any reason to get themselves out on the first chase of the year. My instinct tells me that this would be a total waste of resources and time; its early March for crying out loud. Hell, as of this writing, it isn't even March yet! But all that aside, because if I truely was concerned, I wouldn't be discussing it.
Will probably break down a bit and start to sort through the spaghetti noodles later this afternoon after knocking out some school work. Still a ways out, but getting closer now. Close enough to warrent some looks to familiarize myself with the model's take on things so that as things draw nearer, I can start to compare and constrast to see just what the thinking is. Then of course, start to plan out my trip, which to be honest, I've been doing since late last week.
Schedule-wise, I'm in heaven. I have one Saturday evening driving shift to contend with, but beyond that, am pretty well free starting Thursday evening at 7p. Pending my target for Friday (if I so find one), I may drive a few hours Thursday evening and hit the first Best Western beyond the Colorado State line. If the target's close, I may make an early day of Friday.
This setup holds potential for a couple of days. Saturday also seems to be pegged with the current forecasts, which makes for a two-day chase trip if Friday holds any hope. From what I've heard from fellow chasers, Saturday seems to be the best of the two days. But because of my schedule-situation, if I'm chasing one, I'll be chasing both.
My van underwent its overhaul on Saturday (see previous entries), so she's pretty well ready. Unfortunately, I was unable to finish up the Jotto Desk mounting due to the slicing wires incident. Sunday morning, I had an epiphony; my passenger seat rests on a metal track which has a metal plate on the sides. Low and behold, a practical place to mount an item such as a laptop desk. I bought the mounting parts for it at Ace Hardware yesterday, but found myself fighting a headache bad enough to prevent me from moving further on the project. My thoughts are any chase this weekend will be without the aid of my Jotto Desk unless I am able to find someone with a drill and an hour to spend on it. Lastly, the maintanance will be completed by Wednesday as I'll drop the van off first thing in the morning for its tune-up, oil change, and trannie flush. They'll also inspect for other issues if present, but my concern is limited as there appears to be nothing wrong with the van at all.
Between now and then, some real-world stuff to contend with, including a visit to the doctor in hopes of getting an explanation as to why a guy who rarely suffers from migrains had two of them this weekend. I also have some school stuff to take care of, and fortunately this chase will require no time lost from classes either. Tuesday night, I'm making a trip to Channel 7 News here in Denver to discuss the upcoming project I'll be part of this chase season. Oddly enough, that trip to the station will require more hours from work than chasing this entire weekend (another point of how well this chase trip works). I'm looking forward to visit.
I'll post a forecast later today after homework and doctor's visit. As I've said many times in the past several days, I'm looking more for a reason to test out the ride than I am anything else. If any opportunity presents itself for a chase, no matter how meager, I'm there. And right now, there is opportunity for a chase. What's in store for that chase, likely not much. But more than enough for me to warrent the trip. My alert changes to SLIGHT this evening.
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Sunday, February 26, 2006
Yesterday, I headed up to Coal Creek Canyon to meet with my good friend, Verne Carlson to get his help in setting up my chase ride. First of all, a great many thanks to him for his help! We knocked out just about everything on the todo list with ease ('cept for the near disaster).
 
Photos taken by Verne Carlson
Our prep-work involved getting most of the interior taken apart. We pulled off covers on the apssenger side where I had planned to mount the HAM body. We tore out some carpeting, some plastic covers, and the radio bezel. We made quite the mess.
Our first order of business was to fish the connector wires from the interior of the van into the engine area and to the battery. This proved much easier than we had expected as we ended up routing most of the wiring this way.
  
Next was to mount the HAM radio. I had found a perfect place for the body under the glove box. The problem was its tight space which made us having to take off a wiring cover and drill the mount into that. Getting it out was the easy part; putting it back in with the radio, not so much. After some trial, error, and some fancy human tricks, I was able to get "nubby" (our short phillips head) into the tight area, push the plastic covering back into place, and secure it back with the radio mounted.
Photo taken by Verne Carlson
We then followed up by mounting the lighter adapter and CB radio. Both were relatively painless installs and we had them connected quickly and easily. Next was the Jotto desk, what I thought would be the easiest. I marked my floor location, cut away the carpet, and began to drill. The screws weren't making contact with the metal floor below. We knew we were drilling through plastic, but figured it to be insulation. So, we took Verne's Sawzall and cut three straight lines in the plastic. It was then we noticed multiple colors glaring back at us. We had just chopped through the van's wiring harness.
Photo taken by Verne Carlson
After kodak moment quality stares, we quickly pulled Verne's soldering gizmo and were able to follow the colors and reconnect all the wires. Our estimate was we completely separated 7 and had to electical tape up another 8. One can't say how lucky we were. Again, many thanks to Verne not only for his expertise, but his cool head and agreeing sense of humor which got us through the next 45 minutes as I held a light for him as he soldered away. I did make it down the canyon and drives pizzas without any electrical issues, so I'm happy to report that I think we got them all.
So here are the before and after shots...
 
That's all I have for now; some discussion and thoughts on the end of the week coming later today...
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Saturday, February 25, 2006
I'm cheating the end-of-the-week setup; at least in terms of keeping my eye on it til it gets closer and I can start to do my own analysis on it with some confidence. However, my cheating lead me to an experiemental product on SPC which gives a forecast on the next 4 to 8 days. Below is a pull from their brief discussion which continues to shine a ray of hope for the end of next week. The most notable thing for me personally is the March 3; Friday; date. If that holds, its on THE perfect day for me to chase.
HOWEVER...PAST 2-3 MODEL RUNS SHOW A STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING SEWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND APPROACHING THE SRN PLAINS ON MARCH 3RD. SEVERAL DAYS OF SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD SPREAD HIGHER DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE NWD. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS A SEVERE STORM THREAT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY MARCH 3RD.
It'll be Monday before I start running my own forecasts and the earliest day I'll start playing with my chasing alert status. But if things continue to hold hope, I'll be bumping into SLIGHT mode by Tuesday. Remember, I am more concerned with the van's first run than I am chasing itself, so it won't take a whole lot to get me out. There does have to be a decent shot, but setups I would normally pass up on may find themselves under debate come Wednesday! Definately stay tuned!
Speaking of the van, I'm about half an hour from heading up to Verne's to get my gear installed. Very excited to be getting this phase underway and want to again thank Verne for taking the time to assist in this project. I'll probably post some shots later pending any time between finishing up there and driving pies.
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Friday, February 24, 2006
White Lightning has been nerdarized!
The plates went on just before noon this morning. White Lightning is now fully registered, paid off (taxes), and ready to roll. I opted not to replace the plates for newer ones for two reasons; first of all, I didn't want to wait the 6 months I waited last time I relaced them; second, I wanted to leave a tribute to the 'Storm Tracer' by doing my best to bend the front plate straight and leave it on the front of the van. I may opt to replace them out after the season ends, but til then, thye'll do just fine. I also stuck Chris Rozoff's "Free Convetion" bumper sticker which mocks the free Tibet (sp?) stickers you see everywhere. That'll mark the first tatoo for the new ride.
 
Also, I went ahead and pulled all my gear together to get it ready for tomorrow's installation up at Verne's. I went to Radio Shack and Ace Hardware to gte the last of the items I might need, including the triple lighter adapter which made a beautiful fit beneath the cup holders. The issue is trying to get a drill in there to mount it still. Perhaps Verne knows of a better, more creative way. Ace's visit was for some more mounting screws, namely for the HAM radio which I want to mount beneath the glove box. Everything has been stuffed into its plastic container and will be heading up the Canyon tomorrow morning to get installed.
I also went through all my photography gear to take inventory and make sure every piece of equipment had all its parts. Amazingly enough, I found everything pretty well together, including all my compact flash cards, power adapters, and lens adapters. I need to stock up on Rayovac rechargables and 8mm tapes, but other than that, I'm pretty much set up and ready to go.
Speaking of ready to go, my thoughts on chasing next week remain about the same as they were upon first discovering the setup. Models remain somewhat consistant according to chaser conversation, but I'm still waiting another couple of days before I start really considering the venture. However, in preparation, I'm going to take my van in for its preseason maintance on Wednesday. A tune up, oil change, and transmission flush are all on the list of things to do to her while I'm in class Wednesday. Apparently the tune-ups for this baby are a bit more than the car because the labor involved. Not the happiest news on earth, but none-the-less, it'll be done. Between the gear installation, gathering of my photography stuff, and getting the van into the shop, I would be ready to go if the end of the week pans out. I'm still not holding my breath, but definately keeping my fingers crossed.
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Thursday, February 23, 2006
And the chatter begins...
Blogs, forums, and conversation alike, the chasing world has a small buzz to it this morning. Some of it optimistic, some not so much, some a bit of both, and some in between.
I don't forecast anything officially beyond four or five days. To me, its like buying a house the day before the lotto numbers are drawn assuming you're going to win. While there's a million-to-one chance, its in the very far realm of possibility. I certainly wouldn't bank on it. And while forecasting assumes much better odds, my thoughts are the same; I won't bank on it either.
But I can hope. Afterall, you buy the ticket with dreams that you may win. I look ahead at patterns with dreams I may chase. What happens on that chase sharply changes those initial odds, but when you're this far out, you have to wish for one before the other can happen. And that's where I am now.
I haven't done much but glance at the models to familiarize myself enough to get involved with the conversation. However, I will admit to raising an eyebrow at the possibility it displays. But of course, with the excitement comes the inevitable pessimistic view which comes with forecasting anything this far out. Will this actually verify? Hell, I'm curious as to why I'm even thinking about it 8 days out. Afterall, when that timeframe actually arrives, it could just as easily be snowing in our area of interest. With my initial, first-of-the-season shock out of my system, I'll return to reality and keep a patient eye over the coming days to see how this evolves. If on Sunday/Monday, things still look interesting, I'll start to put my pre-chase ritual in motion. In any case, I'm definately listening.
Some notes on this coming system; if it starts to look more and more possible, I'm going to hope it maintains the general timeframe for which it's shaping up to be (Thurs - Sun). With that in mind, its a perfect opportunity for me seeing as I would have very little going on to worry about annd would easily be able to get out. My only drawback is a friend who's coming in from out of town whom I missed over the holidays and owe her a visit. Unless a two-day setup takes shape (a scenario I'll touch on later), I can work around that as well.
Between now and then, I'm going to be kicking a dead horse about how I want a test-run of my van, gear, etc. And if a questionable setup does look to play out at all during my preferred timeframe, I'm probably going to bite just for the reason to get everything out. Because its early enough in the season, I'll have plenty of opportunity to make any changes I see fit. Remember, there is a reason why I call this preseason.
If a two-day scenario holds chance (Thurs and Fri/Fri and Sat), I'll likely be in a feasable position to chase both days. What I'll likely do is spend a night or two camped in my van pending my travel distances and do a hotel the night between chases. Either way, I'll have a full day to return home.
Why I'm dicussing this, I don't know. I'm more excited about the chance of a road trip to break everything in than I am for actual storms. But, I obviously won't just up and leave without a reason, so any remote chance would be nice to see at the right time. I'll be watchin' the chatter over this through the weekend before I actually go headlong into anything and HOPE that at least enough of a chance exists to get that test run I so desperately want.
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Wednesday, February 22, 2006
Verne, are you serious? *LOL* Yes, I'll admit to nearly slipping out of my chair to see Verne talking about severe potential for late next week. Ya know, if it holds to a Thurs/Fri/Sat time range, it'll be extremely hard for me not to consider it, I mean, it's in that lovely spot of no classes, little work. A Friday would be perfect! No work missed there. But enough about that, I'm not quite to the point where I can admit I am ready for the season. After this weekend, I'll be in good shape for the most part. March 1 is when preseason starts, so this will be a scrimmage; get the vehicle broken in, give a test run for the gear, etc. More than anything, that's what I want to do. Not busting would be an added bonus; falling on a Friday would be an even bigger bonus. But, no blue on the alert yet, but be watching. If this remains a possibility by Sunday, I'll change the alert for the first time since October before the end of Monday.
In other news, I took car of the taxes and emissions for the van today. Friday, I'll pay a small fee to have my 'WX NERD' plates transfered over. Good news is I get some credit from the Tracer's registration towards the plates, so I'm anticipating less than $50 to do this, which is $150 less than I was planning. An amazing break, especially if that $150 ends up throwing me on the road next weekend.
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Doing some behind-the-scenes website work today. Also doing some stuff you will see, including the addition of GoogleAds on the 7 main pages of my site as well as a donate button. My first run of the donate button last year actually managed to cover a month of website expenses during the height of the chase season last year. Since my website cost is rather low as it is, it didn't take much. Between that and Google, I'm hoping to cover a small percentage this season as my costs have increased since last year. So by all means, click away! :o)
Behind-the-scenes, I'm considering a move from Yahoo to GoDaddy. While I've got a lot of time with Yahoo, cash is tight and I need some relief. I can get a hosting plan through GoDaddy for less than half the monthly cost and get 10 times the space, and 2.5 times the bandwidth. My only issue is having to pay for the entire length I buy up front (i.e. 36 months for over $200 right away). Obviously this means I don't worry about it again for 3 years, but its the up-front money which is bothering me.
I can transfer my tornadoeskick.com domain over without problem and if I really wanted, register other versions of my domain. All for nearly a third less than what I am paying with Yahoo. And obviously, there wouldn't be any address issues; just a brief period where the site is down during transfer. My thoughts are 30 minutes max for that.
My temporary plan would be to sign up for the monthly plan through chasing season, then mid summer change over to a multi-year plan and save. Even then, I can cut my costs by $5.00 through then.
Saturday is on for getting the van ready to roll. Heard from Verne Carlson this afternoon and I'll be heading up mid-morning. My goals are to install the HAM radio, CB, multi-outlet, Jottodesk, and the inverter. The scanner is also on the list, but isn't a huge priority at the moment. I'll be posting pictures of the overhaul Saturday.
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Tuesday, February 21, 2006
Well, my hopes were that by this time today, December's auto accident would be wrapped up and I could finally put it behind me. No such luck; I have to wait til April 13 before that'll happen. I can't go into specifics, but because of certain circumstances, I had to get a second date as we're awaiting final word from the other party. Long story, but none-the-less, I now have to wait ANOTHER two months before I can think of wrapping this up! Can you believe this is taking FOUR MONTHS to take care of! It's a goddam car accident for crying out loud, one I'm not sure is entirely my fault!! Don't worry about the fact I have classes or work to take off to do all of this. And if I miss out on a good chase because of this... UGH!
The chasing community has been quiet since the weekend wrapped up. Most chasers from out of town apparently did eventually make it home after suffering through delays, cancellations, or car troubles. I'm sure most, like me, have a bit of recovery time coming before they jump head-long into the early season madness. By the way, preseason kicks off in a week.
I'm waiting til midweek to finalize plans to head up to Verne's this weekend to get his help in setting up my chase ride. I'll spend Friday making a final checklist of any items I need to pick up, then head up early in the day Saturday for the big show. I'm eager to get this project finally underway.
Weather has warmed since this weekend's bitter attack. Looks as if things should hover pretty close to normal through the rest of the week. And after the chill of this past weekend, the 40s feel really nice.
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Monday, February 20, 2006
It took me a bit longer to get this up cause of the pipe-issue which sent my girlfriend and I into a hotel for (me) the third night in a row (a strange thought considering I never left the city and I was in TWO hotels in three days), but none-the-less, I have put up my 2006 Storm Chaser Convention page with tons of pictures and stories.
I had a wonderful time this weekend, easily one of the best party-filled weekends in forever. It is so nice to see these people outside of the chasing realm cause it really gives you a sincere chance to just chill out with them. I forget sometimes how tight I feel with these people cause I don't see them often, but after weekends like this, you are quickly reminded how much you enjoy being around these guys. I left the conference already wishing to do it again. But with its end, we are now one step closer to where we all want to be, the Plains!
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Sunday, February 19, 2006
Wrapping up the conference. Will be heading home to deal with broken pipes shortly. Stay tuned for conference wrap up later today.
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Friday, February 17, 2006
Doug K, Verne, Amanda, and I heading up for some winter fun in the mountains. Saying hey from the tunnel.
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Thursday, February 16, 2006
About 3 inches of snow fell overnight with flurries winding down here in Lakewood, Colorado.
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Wednesday, February 15, 2006
The snow started falling shortly before 7pm this evening and has been a light shower since then. A dusting is all I can report ATTM, but more is on the way. NWS Boulder is thinking upwards of 5 inches, pretty much dropping the 1 to 3 they had for tomorrow, which means most if not all our accumulation will come overnight tonight before tapering off to flurries during the day tomorrow. I won't be surprised to see the accumulating snow hang around til mid-morning before tapering off. Either way, I'm not holding out for major totals. The main story is the cold air this system is going to bring as highs will not make it out of the teens tomorrow and Friday. A "warming trend" will see highs climbing back into the 20s through next week. Brrrr! So again, I say welcome convention attendees... this change in the weather was just for you! :o)
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Tuesday, February 14, 2006
Winter's return will be sudden and sloppy, but definately not a snow monster... at least for my place. Areas along the CO/WY border will get the brunt of the snow with over a foot possible in some areas. Down here, a couple inches maybe, but freezing rain is also a possibility given the shallow layer of cold air initially. Another system later in the weekend and early next week may hold some promise, but that's so far out, its barely worth a mention.
I've signed up for Google ads and have posted one on the index page. I'm testing this out initially to see how it does. I've changed the color schemes so it'll blend into the page a bit more. I'm probably going to add it to the main sections of my site, but leave it out of the sub-pages. My blog may also see this addition later on pending on how it works. The smaller text and green background will again keep it from being too flashy and hopefully won't add too much clutter.
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Monday, February 13, 2006
It only took most of the winter season, but it finally looks as if we're going to have at least a week of cold, winter-like weather here in Colorado. And just in time for the chaser convention which is this coming weekend.
A system which will move into the region Tuesday afternoon/evening will kick-off what oughta be a decent system which at the very least will send temps falling hard. The recent winter blast was short lived as temps on Sunday climbed to near 60; much of the same today and tomorrow, but by Wednesday, it'll be a whoe new can of worms. A real potent upper-level system is expected to flush away the warmth and welcome us back to winter. Temps will remain cold through the weekend with highs in the 30s and lows in the single digits.
Snow chances are good, but the big question is how much. This system is going to create a southwesterly flow over the area for a time and actually give us a shot of good, deep upslope. However, moisture, as usual this time of year, remains the question. While there will likely be accumulating snows, it could be mearly a few inches. I'm not flabbergasted with excitement over this system, but it looks as if we'll be in a favorable snow pattern for at least 36 hours. Light snow primarily, but because of the setup, some convective snow, thus heavier bands, will be likely as well in some areas thanks in part to the position of the jet and the flow pattern.
The fun begins Wednesday and will go through at least Thursday, maybe pushing snow chances into the weekend as well. I'm not going to jump on the opomistic side yet simply because this entire winter really has blown, but there is a chance in the fantasy land of a decent snow (6 inches or more) out of this. Stay tuned.
As mentioned earlier, this coming weekend is the long-awaiting chaser convention. It's going to be a packed weekend of talks, video, and friends. Out of all the conferences I attend, this is definately my favorite. I'm happy to see the most of my chasing friends will be in attendence. Sadly, a couple will not make it out for various reasons. In any case, more than enough to do in over the weekend and I'm eagerly counting down the last few days til the Friday kick-off!
A financial update; doing very well towards my $2500 goal. After this passed week, I have amassed $1400 in savings. My goal was to accumulate $2500 before May 1, which meant I needed on average about $625/month starting in January. Seeing as its mid-February and I'm over halfway there, I'm opomistic that I'll meet or exceed that $2500 amount. I have a tax return pending as well, which could tack on as much as $400 into that stash, but I'm thinking of setting a few bucks aside for my van's maintanance which will ensue in mid-March. My over-achieving goal is $3000 by May 1, which will allow me my $100/day allowance for every day I'm out. $2500 I can live on for that month on the road, but reality states that there will be down days where I will be doing little if any traveling. In any case, it looks like things are good. My credit card will remain unused and ready for any trip emergencies such as vehicle repairs or other items not being specifically budgeted in my $2500 stash. However, if I find myself spending less and have the cash to spare, I'll avoid using the credit card and take it out of my chasing budget.
Well, off to get ahead on some homework so I can enjoy my weekend. I'll keep you all posted of the upcoming system as I know more. Keeping my fingers crossed for a surprise, though!
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Friday, February 10, 2006
This snowstorm dumped about three inches on us last night. About what was expected, so nothing too terribly exciting. Just enough to slick up the roads and break out the windshield washer fluid.
I made my trip to Radio Shack this morning and picked up the wire and the switch. I also picked up some connectors for the task and will have them ready to go. My plans of getting my HAM wired up today will probably be put on hold as the weather isn't exactly the best for working outside. No need to subject myself to that.
I also handled the cell connection issue today. I went to my Sprint Store to talk turkey with the reps about getting wireless internet data. I obviously checked out the connection cards and priced them out. About what I figured, $100 up front for the card and $60/month for the unlimited access (special to current Sprint voice customers). Unfornately the connection required a contract which is obvious, but would later add costs with cancellation fees of $150.
So I checked out the Phone-as-modem plan, one which I tested earlier in the week but found to be charged per KB. They ran a special for $40/month for unlimited phone-as-modem access. This obviously is slower than the high speed, but with some computer-based HTML work, I can program most of what I need to be ready so all I would need to do is pull up graphics and such. Speed not really a major concern as long as I have the access.
Anywoo, this plan includes Vision, which I was already paying $15/month for, so I was able to drop the Vision plan, tack on $5 for the unlimited Picture Mail service and get the plan for basically $45/month. Also, my 14% discount is included with that, so I'm basically getting it for $40. The perk.. NO CONTRACT! I can disconnect this service at my leisure and not worry about early termination fees. AND I also don't have to buy any other equipment. With this, my plan to keep a cell phone bill below $100/month looks pretty good. Now I have internet access available to me from the road as long as I am in Sprint service areas. Albeit, slow, but there none-the-less, and for much cheaper in the long run.
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Thursday, February 09, 2006
The mobile blog I sent this evenig from the bus seemed to have worked. My first message went bad cause of a bad cell phone signal, but the second attempt fired them up with no problems. The picture posted in less than 5 minutes (sorry for no text). That was a cloud shot from earlier this afternoon when the front came through.
Speaking of front, our change in the weather has finally occured. Snow has been falling for a couple hours now and high winds have made it near white-out at times. My estimates of about an inch or two seem pretty in line as I haven't gone down to stick a ruler in the snow. I'm not big on wind driven snow in the face at 11 at night. In any case, current radar and surface obs indicate we still have some time to go before the snow tapers. There isn't any real indication of the northly wind component kicking in anytime soon, so another couple hours of snow is still in the cards before things start to dissipate towards daybreak. Radar imagery isn't showing any trimming of the northern most echoes as of now. I'll go give the snow a poke in the morning before heading out to run my errands, so I'll have a talley for you then (maybe a mobile blog entry).
Speaking of errands, I'm contemplating a Spring Connection Card. I'm going to go to the Belmar Sprint store tomorrow and try to talk bargin. Online, they have a deal where I can get a free connection card (service credit) and unlimited service for $59.99/month. Not bad and definately cheaper than WXWorx. The drawback, cell coverage is limited in the Great Plains in many areas, but to have such access in various places on the road would definately be a nice addition. Denver is in their official broadband zone, so it'll definately be cool to have in local spotting roles as I'll have broadband speed available to me up and down the Urban Corridor. I'm going to try and work a contract deal seeing as I'd only use this service from March til August. I'll see what I can muster.
Anywoo, off to enjoy a long night's sleep and a late wake-up tomorrow. Here's to some more snow! A nice reminder that chasing isn't quite here yet.
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Winter will make a quick return today as a cold front is slamming its way through Colorado today bringing with it much colder temps and snow. The quick blast of snow will be just that, and its lack of time spent here will result in only a few inches of the white stuff before leaving behind highs in the upper 20s tomorrow compared to the near highs of 60 today and yesterday. It'll be but a blink in winter's eye as we'll rebound to near 50 by Sunday with nothing exciting progged by any of the models in the next week. The shame with this system is the fairly deep layer of moisture associated with it could give us a good shot of snow if this system would slow down and not having a hindering NW wind creating downslope conditions later tonight into tomorrow morning. This certainly isn't a beautifully setup system, but it definately could be better.
Mobile blogging continues to baffle me as I have yet to submit a successful picture entry since the first day. Various errors seem to prevent the image from properly uploading to my site, thus giving me a broken image. The text makes it through okay, but not the picture. Will continue to screw around with that.
My electric cooler arrived yesterday and I gave it a ride while driving pies to see how she works. It fit beautifully between the two front seats, but made buckling up a bit of a pain (lack of hand room). Since it fits snug and will require some work to buckle the seatbelts, I will leave it free-stand between the seat. It seems to resist sliding, so that won't be an issue. The shoulder strap also makes it nice to lug around so I could take it inside overnight if I so choose.
My weekend plans for the van aren't too elaborant due to the weather, but I will be doing some work. I would like to wire up the HAM radio and at least give me temporary use of it before permantely mounting it. I want to test it out, set it up, test the speaker position, etc. My big concern is running the wires from inside the van to the battery. The battery position under the hood is close to the windshield, so they don't need to go far, but I might have to drill into the firewall so I can route the wiring out as there appears to be no decent place to run the wires out as it stands right now.
My other plan which will be easier to accomplish is to buy a set of wires for the inverter as well as a switch and possibly a noise reducing component for the inverter to avoid too much noise interference with the HAM. Radio Shack will get a visit from me tomorrow as I go to pick up the parts I need for this task. Most of this I can do from the comfort of my apartment, only having to use the van to test it out. I'm still undecided about where to put the inverter in the van.
This will be my last real chance to do any work before next weekend's Storm Chaser Convention. My goal was to have the majority of stuff completed before then, but real life has presented enough challenges to put the project on hold. In any case, I've pushed my goal back to March 1 which means the weekend following the chaser convention will be set aside to get the major work done (wiring, Jotto Desk installation, any drilling, etc).
Strangly enough, the delay in installation allows me a chance to get the opinions of other chasers attending the conference, which will be nice if someone sees something and offers a hearty suggestion. So all those attending, be prepared for some Q&A in the off times! Haha!
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Tuesday, February 07, 2006
Testing blogger picture capabilities.
Took 30 minutes, but picture mail to blog now functions! :o) I'll probably test this out a couple times in the next couple weeks (chase convention included) just to see its overall performance. All-in-all, the lag time won't be too bad considering I'll be able to do this from the field anywhere I am able to get digital service. Thanks to Verne Carlson who pointed this out and gave me direction to get this working. This will be an AWESOME addition to my chasing this season! Especially as I will be writing a code which will enable me to post my most recent blog entry not only here, but to my chasing front page.
Technology, gotta love it sometimes!
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testing cell phone blogging via text.
Still awaiting to see if the picture mail part of this works. I sent the pictures out about half hour ago, so I'm not sure how long they'll be. The text arrived almost instantaneously, so I know that's working. I'm hoping to get the pictures up soon, too!
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Monday, February 06, 2006
I've finalized plans for both the chase-related conferences I'll be attending this year. I paid my registration fee for the National Storm Chaser Convention this morning. This was the one convention I knew for sure I was attending, regardless. I also booked the hotel for Jerry, Greg, and myself for the TESSA Convention in March. Between both conferences, I'll be out about $200, so its not a huge hit to my chasing plans for May and beyond. With that, I've officially decided against the Des Moines and OKC conferences and will save my funds. The chaser convention was a gimme cause its here in Denver; TESSA was finalized cause my flight was taken care of and there's no cost to attend. Both are cheap conferences for me and well worth what little I do have to fork out. Des Moines and OKC are also well worth it, but I don't have the travel luxuries and breaks I do like for TESSA, so they'd be close to $300 a pop if I attended.
With the Steelers beating up on Seattle in Superbowl XL last night, it marks the end of my "other" season. I have no interest in the Pro Bowl, so I basically finalize the NFL Season come Superbowl and prepare myself for the 2 month lull where little (if any) chasing exists and no football to preoccupy my week. I'll use this time to secure my passing grades in classes before the April and early May chases lead me from the classrooms to the Plains. Beyond the scope of classes, I'll be working to prepare myself for the season by working every hour I can get to save cash for the season as well as the ongoing projects involving my new ride and its gear.
Several years ago, I became a weekly customer to Ace Hardware as I was outfitting my new 'Storm Tracer' for its upcoming seasons. This year, I am once again finding myself at the local Ace store every weekend picking up bits and pieces to customize my new ride. Most of my purchases fall in the lines of new tools, extra screws, washers, and bolts, or other mechanical knick-knacks. I have gone in and spent as little as a quarter, but none-the-less, I'm sure the employees will know me well by the first week in April.
A rather tranquil week of weather in store for the Denver area. Models are hinting at a chance of snow for the weekend here in the Urban Corridor, but as far out as that is, its hard to hold your breath. I will keep my eyes on it over the coming days to see how it pans out.
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Saturday, February 04, 2006
I've done some preliminary work on the van this weekend. While most of the work will come when I head up to Verne's in a couple weeks, I figured I could get some of the simple stuff out of the way. I took out the bottom storage area and removed the drawer to make way for the mounting of my radios. I also installed the HAM radio mount on the radio bezel. This is going to require some customization because if I mount the Jotto Desk where I want, it may block out the radio. So what I may end up doing is attaching a bracket which would allow me to mount the radio higher on the bracket and out of the way of the laptop. I'm also going to attach another piece where I can hang the mic. Also on the list, I mounted the external speaker by the parking break using one of the body screws. My goal in the overhaul is to do as little cosmetic damage to the van as I can. So being able to mount the speaker to a screw that was already available was quite nice. Last, I removed one of the second row captain's chairs and hauled it up to my third floor apartment. I'm eyeing the various places I can put things and am waiting to see how everything will work out. The scanner and CB will easily fit in the console together, but I want to mount them so I can easily get them in and out without having to go through much hassel. I've seen pieces of equipment which allow you to plug and unplug the radios with ease since all the wires are hooked into the mount. That would be the way I'd like to go.
I ordered that cooler I wanted from Wal-Mart and will be looking for it in the mail in the coming days. Depending on its size, I'll probably put it on one of those metal kitchen shelfs and sit the inverter under that. My gears are turning, but things are heading in the right direction! Off to my burger!
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Thursday, February 02, 2006
Rental Vehicles for Chasing.
Seems the vehicle topic has come up a couple times lately in chaser discussion. The latest came up a couple hours ago in regards to rental car companies making the customer liable for damages done by acts of nature.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2006-02-02-rental-usat_x.htm?csp=34
While the article itself makes it sound like a new thing, I guess this is something that's always been around. My interpretation of the article was that you would be responsible for it regardless. I don't know the history of rental cars vs bad weather, but from what I knew, if you bought the damage waiver (insurance) from the company, all you had to do was turn in the key and you were free of all charges. This article made it look (without saying it) that even with the damage waiver, if you had damage to the car, it was your responsibility. I'm not surprised by the article as I stated in ST, but as I thought about it, this is nothing new.
Renting a vehicle for chasing is a thought that's crossed my mind numerous times. While its not really a cost-wise perk, it does eliminate such issues as maintanance and care of your own vehicle, as well as the obvious perk of keeping your vehicle out of harm's way. While its a tempting option for those willing to fork out the extra dough, my hesitations have been mainly in the form of customization, not so much in liability for damages caused.
My thoughts on damage ran in two directions; first, damage waiver. If I were renting the vehicle solely for chasing, I would not think of skipping out on this option. As a man at Enterprise once said to me, "as long as you return the keys, you can leave the car buring on the side of the road". I laughed at him as I passed on the offer, but remembered it from that day in case I ever elected to go the rental route for chasing. While I would avoid most forms of intential damage, its inevitable I would do something to the vehicle. While hail dents would likely fall under the intentional part, there's always a risk of the usual suspects; car accidents, backing into things, etc. Even the not-so-usual accidents involving hitting animals as my buddy Amos Magliocco experienced last year. While that can happen to anyone for any reason, its easier to explain such an incident by saying I was going to my Dad's rather than I was storm chasing. In any case, the damage waiver basically gets you out of covering damages to the vehicle and allows you to basically get away with driving it into the ground (or anything else). With the option available for as little as $15/day, its something anyone who chases should seriously consider, whether or not they even use it. Chasing is an inheriently dangerous activity, and since one can drive as many as 12,000 miles in a couple weeks, our odds of doing any sort of damage to a car is about the same as someone who drives 12,000 miles in a year. Its almost inevitable.
The second direction was the general insurance. Most insurance policies cover the rental vehicle. Seeing as most weather-related damages are covered under a comprehensive plan rather than collision, you're plan will usually have no problems covering a rental as long as they're covered under your policy. When I've rented in the past and waived off the damage protection, I've relied on my insuance company to cover me just in case, just as they would with any vehicle I own. A collision claim with a rental acts no differently than one in your own car; your rates may go up. However, because it is a rental car, you've now got a third party involved; the rental company. And if you're driving your rental into the core of a supercell, you've now got the issue of explaining your story to two places, not just one. If a rental company determines you had intent, you've now got a whole new ball of wax to deal with.
The temptations of rental vehicle use to avoid using your own is definately a luring option. I've chased in caravans where fellow chasers were roaming around in rentals, some more care-free than others. And while I've never heard of any stories of rental car companies taking action, I guess proving intent would be hard for the company to do. And again, maybe not. I don't know. But when you look at the miles and tear you put on your vehicle, it definately would be nice to see it done to someone else's car. Especially one where you can hand over the keys when you're done and walk away, out a few hundred bucks for the rental with no lingering vehicle issues to worry about during the off-season.
But, my problem, and one that I've heard little about from other chasers. The personal effects of a vehicle. One of my main reasons for not chasing in a rental is my "relationship" with my own ride. Yes, I have to maintain it, keep it running, and of course, keep her in drivable shape as I punch my own cores, but knowing my vehicle and what it can do I think makes me a safer chaser. If anything, it makes me more comfortable, both in security and cushy-seat comfort.
I design the interior of my vehicles to suit my needs. When I buy a car, I know I'll be using it primarily as a chasing vehicle. My latest purchase proves that to a 'T'. And because it is my own vehicle, I can drill into her, mount things where I want, and avoid having to redo it year-after-year. And seeing as my same insurance covers my ride, I basically have the exact same coverage on my own ride as I would a rental. Difference is, hail damage is an optional repair, if you get my drift.
Being in my own car is one of the true aspects of chasing for me. It's my main reason for purchasing them in the first place. And even if I am stuck in a vehicle that may not be the best for chasing (i.e. my Tracer), I turn her into a vehicle I can comfortably take across the country on these trips. Knowing my vehicle is my damage protection. While it won't help me avoid the unintentional mishaps of crashes, hail, and flying deer, it will be a vehicle I trust and am familiar with. I know how she'll handle on tight corners; I know her gas mileage; my ass imprint is in the seat, thus fitting me well. All of that is hard to pass up, even for the relief of stress driving a car not-my-own. I am one of the oddballs of Tornado Alley, my vehicle IS my permanent chase partner. I joke with my girlfriend saying I cheat on her every May with my vehicle. Its a security, and one I am greatful for. Yes, it has its risks, but when you take those risks and weigh them against renting a car, you break about even. What's to stop a rental company from pursuing me in court to prove I had intent? A long shot, I know, but isn't everything in chasing?
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