Another day, another look. Hiding from the models ended last night when I was coaxed into them with talk of the '
Big Texan' by the same guy who later asked me if I was wearing my Skins jersey when Verne and I cut the van's wiring harness! Haha!
So with my diving into the pasta now, I'm now getting a better look as to what may come of this weekend. I have two days I'm shooting for; Friday and Saturday; neither looking great for a variety of reasons, but here's what my thoughts are as of now..
FRIDAY: A day I'm watching simply out of time-off convenience; my thinking is a target lined in the TX Panhandle. Friday's outlook definately seems bleak, but it bears watching cause I think the conditions could exist for severe in the higher terrain where TDs need as much as Eastern Colorado. SFC features look a bit weak in places, but my real concern is the threat for a widespread, not-so-isolated event over the target area. I'll continue to watch it, but if things maintain their current trends, I may opt to use Friday as a travel day.
SATURDAY: Southern Kansas holds hope for this day. My thoughts are a squall line will be raging through the region, though. With the front, ample forcing will exist along with a rather unidirectional flow pattern which usually spells squall. According to the GFS, moisture does nose up along an axis from roughly North Texas, Central and Eastern Oklahoma, and into South and Southeastern Kansas from just west of I-35 eastward. The GFS also has a SFC Low sitting over Southern Kansas at 0z Sunday, but I'd really like to see the upper level winds get out of that unidirectional flow, otherwise it'll be a raging squall line.
NWS Wichita has an interesting discussion in their morning AFD..
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
248 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2006
BUT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BRING THE REGION SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER /AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER/ COME ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE VALUES COULD BE AROUND 1500 J/KG...WITH MODERATE SHEAR AND EVEN A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER VALUE AROUND 2 ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS IS DEFINITELY A PERIOD TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK.
I'm not quite sure how much stock to take out of that, but it definately keeps one's eyes pealed. Last couple discussions they've had have definately pointed out severe potential on this day, but will it be in the form of a massive squall line? This is a bit closer to the low and because of that, the winds will be better for low level rotation and my thinking is that would be the better play for Saturday.
Still reluctant to pull the tirgger, mainly cause its Friday I'm more concerned about. If I had to choose right now, I'd use Friday as a travel day and skip out on the Panhandles, but I still have about 36 hours before I have to pull the trigger on that. As for Saturday, my thinking is about 50% of me going.
More later...
