And the chatter begins...
Blogs, forums, and conversation alike, the chasing world has a small buzz to it this morning. Some of it optimistic, some not so much, some a bit of both, and some in between.
I don't forecast anything officially beyond four or five days. To me, its like buying a house the day before the lotto numbers are drawn assuming you're going to win. While there's a million-to-one chance, its in the very far realm of possibility. I certainly wouldn't bank on it. And while forecasting assumes much better odds, my thoughts are the same; I won't bank on it either.
But I can hope. Afterall, you buy the ticket with dreams that you may win. I look ahead at patterns with dreams I may chase. What happens on that chase sharply changes those initial odds, but when you're this far out, you have to wish for one before the other can happen. And that's where I am now.
I haven't done much but glance at the models to familiarize myself enough to get involved with the conversation. However, I will admit to raising an eyebrow at the possibility it displays. But of course, with the excitement comes the inevitable pessimistic view which comes with forecasting anything this far out. Will this actually verify? Hell, I'm curious as to why I'm even thinking about it 8 days out. Afterall, when that timeframe actually arrives, it could just as easily be snowing in our area of interest. With my initial, first-of-the-season shock out of my system, I'll return to reality and keep a patient eye over the coming days to see how this evolves. If on Sunday/Monday, things still look interesting, I'll start to put my pre-chase ritual in motion. In any case, I'm definately listening.
Some notes on this coming system; if it starts to look more and more possible, I'm going to hope it maintains the general timeframe for which it's shaping up to be (Thurs - Sun). With that in mind, its a perfect opportunity for me seeing as I would have very little going on to worry about annd would easily be able to get out. My only drawback is a friend who's coming in from out of town whom I missed over the holidays and owe her a visit. Unless a two-day setup takes shape (a scenario I'll touch on later), I can work around that as well.
Between now and then, I'm going to be kicking a dead horse about how I want a test-run of my van, gear, etc. And if a questionable setup does look to play out at all during my preferred timeframe, I'm probably going to bite just for the reason to get everything out. Because its early enough in the season, I'll have plenty of opportunity to make any changes I see fit. Remember, there is a reason why I call this preseason.
If a two-day scenario holds chance (Thurs and Fri/Fri and Sat), I'll likely be in a feasable position to chase both days. What I'll likely do is spend a night or two camped in my van pending my travel distances and do a hotel the night between chases. Either way, I'll have a full day to return home.
Why I'm dicussing this, I don't know. I'm more excited about the chance of a road trip to break everything in than I am for actual storms. But, I obviously won't just up and leave without a reason, so any remote chance would be nice to see at the right time. I'll be watchin' the chatter over this through the weekend before I actually go headlong into anything and HOPE that at least enough of a chance exists to get that test run I so desperately want.
