Tony Laubach's Storm Chase Blog

Lubacca 2005 is complete! I will have the first copies burned tonight and the first orders out by Thursday, so all awaiting their copies, they'll be in the mail on Thursday. I am watching the final version right now and am pretty happy all-in-all with the results. I'm going pretty bare as I am saving the rest of the footage for the Christmas DVD which I will being production on tomorrow. I have to capture a lot of footage for it, but since I bought my new external hard drive, I should be able to do batch captures on the Macs while I'm at work and do the nitty gritty during class.

As for what to expect, I am going to feature several major chases that I've been on over the last couple years. I've started a page for the DVD project, but have been in the planning stages as to what I am going to include. I am also considering adding the 2002 August Denver LP chase (a quick five minutes), the May 10, 2004 hailstorm chase, and the May 10 Nebraska Supercell chase. I am probably going to attach a small text only preview to attach to the Lubacca 2005 feature as I haven't put together a video preview yet. Other than that, once Lubacca 2005 is released, I am going to keep that on the low and then try and go nuts with the Compilation DVD.

I am doing all the menus professionally as well as the graphics, which for the most part are done and just need rendering to the video itself. I'm not foreseeing any major downfalls with production, so hopefully I can be in full release before Christmas.

More on the Comilation DVD later!
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Saturday, October 29, 2005

 

Thunderstorms! Yes, we had a helluva lightning show near the Front Range tonight as some weak, electrified storms rolled off the foothills in areas north and south of Denver. My best show came from the southern storm along the Palmer Divide which presented a lot of inter-cloud lightning for a couple hours. Keep in mind that temps were in the upper 40s at the time and last I checked, thunderstorms were not in the official forecast. It was a pleasent surprise! We only saw drizzle as the majority of it fell south of the area, but I happily enjoyed lightshow several days before November!
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Saturday, October 22, 2005

 

I did do some research and found out that my October 19 chase last week was #10 for all-time highest single chase miles (to date). Here is the complete top 10 list starting at number 1...

1. April 19, 2003 - 1,814
2. May 24, 2004 - 1,706
3. April 18, 2002 - 1,699
4. June 12, 2005 - 1,573
5. March 27, 2004 - 1,557*
6. May 29, 2004 - 1,377
7. April 5, 2005 - 1,350
8. May 5, 2002 - 1,296
9. April 10, 2005 - 1,186
10. October 19, 2005 - 1,117

* Leaving Des Moines, Iowa and returning to Denver, Colorado

I have two other 1,000 mile plus chases at #11 and #12; April 17, 2004 (1075) and October 22, 2004 (1074). Those 12 chases account for over 40% (43.3%) of my to-date career total miles of 41,050 miles starting in 2002 (12 chases total 17792 miles).
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I just found out that Yahoo, my webhosting service, has more than doubled my storage space and increased my monthly bandwidth allowance. I now have FIVE gigs of space up from two, and plenty of bandwidth space to have all that data transferred! Go Yahoo!
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I have just uploaded what should be the last chase log of 2005 from this week's chase in Northwest Oklahoma. You can view the pictures and details here. 16,000 miles... can you believe it! What a crazy season it's been! I can hardly believe I put that many miles into this season! That's nuts! This chase I believe will rank in the top 10 in terms of single chase distance, but I'll have to go back and look that up.

A few other website updates include added pictures in the "me in action" page as well as a new shot of the Storm Tracer which was taken from the October 19 log.

Reflecting on the chase earlier this week, I really enjoyed getting out again for a final time. Being on the road is one of those times I feel as if I'm home. Even on the trip back to Denver, I was enjoying the nighttime quiet that only my car and I knew. Definately a good chance to collect your thoughts and reset yourself, much like the mountains do for some people, being on the road does for me. The chase itself was great; the adrenalin rush of the core punch, the fast paced speed of the chase, and the relaxing times bouncing rubber balls at the bottom of the hotel signs. It was great! Most of all, I was able to see friends once more before the season bowed out. I think that's really October's purpose; not so much to nab all the crazy weather you can, but a chance to take one more spin in the Plains before the dreaded winter months take hold and keep you away til March and April. Now SDS can set in, but at least I had one more shot!
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Wednesday, October 19, 2005

 

Verne, Mike (Verne's son), and I are again in the lobby of the Best Western doing our morning analysis. Not as juicy as it was yesterday in terms of optimism, but none-the-less, we're here and the front is, too, so we'll take our chances.

It looks as if the best play is going to be east of the SFC low along the front which is currently located just north of the KS/OK border. Here in Garden City, it has passed us. Some convection has already begun in the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles which has me concerned as this may act to kill off any good air we have in this section. I guess the upside to this could be a boundry produced as this mess moves along. Unfortunately I think its killing ability will outdo any upshot to it, so I'm definately worried about the effect that'll have on us later in the day. Behind the mess is clear skies, so maybe since its early enough, that'll allow the atmosphere a chance to recover a bit. Our target will remain about the same as we're basically going to straddle the front east of the SFC low. This may put our play right along the KS/OK border. The RUC isn't very opotimistic with CAPE and I think a lot has to do with the convective system in the Panhandles. The ETA, however, is still pinning a bulls-eye of 2100 CAPE over Northwestern Oklahoma at 0z with decent shear values in the area as well.

OUN's AFD from this morning reinerates the tornado threat along the front and allows for a chance if moisture can pool along the front and drop the LCLs down to a suitable level. DDC downplayed a bit from yesterday, and AMA almost seems non-existant. We're definately going to end up shifting east through the day as the low develops and moves along the front, but I see no reason to panic just yet. Initiation of the chaseable weather seems to be a bit later in the afternoon (after 2pm), so I think we're safe to grab another hour of sleep before kicking off from here.

SPC still has a 5% tornado risk, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see that chopped to a 2% in the 1630 Outlook. I still have hope for something interesting, but its going to take an October miracle to make it happen. We shall see soon enough!
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Verne Carlson and I made it into Garden City. We're checked into the Best Western and are scoping data before heading to bed. We're gonna set a 8am wake-up call and try to be on the road within an hour of that. From there, we're going to head over to Dogge City and drop south into the Oklahoma Panhandle (towards the Beaver area). I'll update again in the morning.
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Tuesday, October 18, 2005

 

Finished my midterm exam for DVD class and am awaiting the return of my co-worker then I'll be heading down to grab my check and then off to Garden City. I'm hoping to be very close to Limon by 7pm which will get me into Garden City around 11p CDT. Makes for a nice, quiet evening before tomorrow's chase.

Tom Dulong, one of the Colorado Gang chasers sent us some interesting climatology with systems like this..

I checked the SPC archives for severe weather events associated with ejecting cutoff lows in either October or its spring equivalent, March. The only events that
correlated even slightly for October had higher surface dews and a much deeper upper low that tracked further north.

However, March 21 2005 was fairly close as the low took a similar track as the lastest NAM. However, our system tomorrow will be about 12 hours out-of-phase (too slow). The March 21 case had surface dews in mid 50s to lower 60s out ahead of a surface low extreme southwest KS/northwest OK and trailing dry line into west central TX.

There were 11 tornado reports from just east of the surface low into southeast OK/eastern TX.

Its been a strange year for chasing, and I imagine there will be a few surprises tomorrow (both good and bad). Hopefully I'll do better tomorrow than I did in October last year. I think our chances are better this time around, so I'm a bit more hopeful. I think another difference is my choice to leave tonight as it'll spare me the long day tomorrow. Also, with talks of early initiation, I won't be left pulling into the target immediately upon initiation; I should have some time tomorrow to adjust pending the morning analysis.

Anywoo, this entry marks me being on the road, so you'll hear from me again in Garden City when I arrive at the Best Western. The Colordo gang will be leaving early in the morning from Denver tomorrow is they choose to take on this system.

BTW, I got a 90% on the midterm (yes, it was graded already)... and class hasn't officially started yet! *LOL* See ya in a few hours!
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I believe this AFD from Dodge City's NWS office belongs to Mike Umscheid, who was out here last week chasing the snowstorm from Castle Rock.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
309 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2005

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

CHALLENGES IN THE FCST ARE MAINLY CENTERED AROUND TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT POTENTIAL SVR WX EVENT AND WIDESPREAD RAIN...AS EJECTING UPPER LOW APPROACHING SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED THE UPPER LOW STILL OVER SOUTHERN CAL. THE SYSTEM IS ON THE MOVE NOW AS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES CONTINUED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF CANADA AND THE CONUS. A NORTHERN STREAM S/WV TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY EAST ALONG THE CANADA/ND BORDER HAD BROUGHT A FRONT DOWN INTO SOUTHER MONTANA THIS MORNING. BY 18Z, THE SURFACE FRONT HAD JUST PUSHED THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS REGION. THIS LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN TOMORROW'S SVR WX SETUP. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TOMORROW, IT WILL QUICKLY COME TO A HALT THANKS TO AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF THE JET WITH THE UPPER LOW.

THE 12Z NAM, UKMET, AND GFS ALL SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY TMRW AFTN...EXTENDING INTO THE DDC CWA FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGE NEAR THE DRY INTRUSION OF THE CYCLONE WILL NOSE UP TO THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...TO PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS CLARK-COMANCHE COUNTIES. A TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THETA-E RIDGE...WILL NOSE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE LOW LEVEL HEAT AXIS IN THIS REGION. A TRIPLE POINT BETWEEN THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT (ACTING AS A DRYLINE, BUT NOT TO BE CONFUSED WITH THE TRADITIONAL MIXING HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE), AND THE QUASI-STATIONARY CANADIAN FRONT...APPEARS
TO BE THE BEST REGION FOR THE MOST SEVERE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ENHANCED 0-1KM SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (HELICITY IN THIS LAYER 100 TO 200 M2/S2), COUPLED WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AND LOWER LCL/LFC HEIGHTS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT...WOULD
FAVOR THE THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE AREA FROM COLDWATER TO P28 NORTH TO PRATT AND KINSLEY-LARNED WHERE WIDESPREAD THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH...ON AVERAGE...IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF 1.5" OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVIEST CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE FRONT, H8-85 ELEVATED CAPE VALUES OF 800 TO 1300 J/KG WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SVR STORMS AS FAR NORTH AS DDC TO KINSLEY-LARNED WITH THE EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT. WILL MENTION SVR IN ALL THESE AREAS LATE TOMORROW AFTN AND TOMORROW EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOMORROW NIGHT, TAKING THE BULK OF THE LIFT AND CONVECTIVE WEATHER INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. COLD ADVECTION AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL LEAVE AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY. LOW STRATO-CU SHOULD LINGER AROUND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH MUCH COOLER HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.



This is an excellent discussion and thought it was very meaningful for those of us heading down there tomorrow. Am awaiting the discussion out of AMA to see how they're approaching tomorrow's setup.
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I'm in Chase Alert Mode now as I have made my reservations at the Best Western in Garden City, Kansas. I have a midterm in my DVD Authoring class which should only keep me for about an hour at most, which means I should be on the road by 7pm MDT on my way into Garden City. More later as I am awaiting to hear back from the Colorado Gang in regards to their chasing plans.
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This morning's ETA/NAM has merged a bit with the GFS and has the low over Southern Kansas as opposed to the Northern Texas Panhandle. That's good news for me as it looks like the Oklahoma Panhandle will see the best action tomorrow. Still a lot of uncertainty and doubts about tomorrow's setup as there are many things left to be determined.

At 36hrs, the ETA/NAM has the 500mb low sitting over extreme Southeast Colorado right near the CO/KS border. Winds over the area at that level run between 30 and 50kts out of the SW, which is sufficient for that level. Further down at 850, the ETA/NAM apparently has the low sitting right over Beaver, OK. Theta-E wraps up ahead of the dryline at that level with decent values over the far eastern portions of the TX/OK Panhandles as well as extreme Southern Kansas. Dewpoints at this level are between 14 and 15C.

Down near the SFC, temps looks to be in the 80s w/ TDs ranging from the low to mid 50s upwards of 60 plus in areas further east. If winds at the SFC can advect some of those richer TDs into a pool near the low, we could find ourselves in decent shape. Also worth noting that the ETA/NAM is showing a buldge in the dryline in the Northern Texas Panhandle which could serve an interesting purpose tomorrow. CAPE values in the area run about 2000J/kg with SRH forecasted to be decent in the vicinity of the front in the OK Panhandle.

What all this means... there is definately potential with this system. I'm iffy on tornado chances mainly due to moisture concerns as I think there is adequet shear for rotating supercells. How low the bases can get is up in the air (no pun intended), however, it seems the bulk of the activity will occur in the higher terrain of extreme Southern Kansas and the OK/TX Panhandles, so mid 60s TDs aren't as needed there as opposed to Central Oklahoma. With that in mind, it definately perks you up a bit as upper 50s would suffice in many cases.

The timing of the front will also play an interesting role tomorrow. As long as it doesn't come crashing south through the day, we should remain pretty hopeful for severe weather. My target would definately be around and south of the low or along the front where the best convergence and forcing will be. If moisture can pool in the area and shear can remain adequet, I remain hopeful for a good chase tomorrow. I'm also keeping an eye on the cloud cover around the front and may drop south of the low along the dryline if that proves to be an issue. Still maintaining my original plans, I will embark from Garden City, Kansas in the morning for someplace in Central/Eastern part of the Oklahoma Panhandle (Beaver). If laters runs push thing further south, I will have plenty of time to move south from that area, so I feel safe in my starting point tomorrow.

Again, will await another series of runs and chat with my other chaser friends to see how everyone feels. A lot of skeptical optimists with this system, so we'll definately see what happens.
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Shifting into high alert this morning as tomorrow's severe weather threat continues to exist. Just a glance at SPC indicates a hatched area from extreme southern Kansas southward into the eastern Panhandles. I'll have to await this morning's new runs to see if I agree with the latest SPC forecast. Still praying the models converge on the GFS forecast, then hope it verifies.

I'm going to leave tonight after my DVD class, run down and grab a paycheck, then head out CO-86 towards Limon and then out to Kansas where I plan to stay in Garden City over night to allow me some flexibility in my schedule tomorrow. It's a bit under 350 miles drive tonight from Denver to Garden City, then about 270 miles to Childress tomorrow if I need to drop that far south. That'll not only give me better position tomorrow, but it cuts the driving in half and allow me a chance for a decent night's sleep before tomorrow. I'll book a room at the Best Western in Garden City later this morning once I finalize my details.

I'll shift into severe mode after noon today once I have talked with fellow chasers and discussed plans and arrangements. I'll pack lightly for this trip, just bringing my camera gear, laptop, and a couple days worth of jerseys.

Here's to October!
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Monday, October 17, 2005

 

I finally had a chance to really look over the models from this morning and last night to make a more dedicated forecast. I sent an email to a chaser friend of mine; here's what I had to say before the latest ETA..

In the quick glance I took this morning, I'm thinking from Liberal southward into the Oklahoma Panhandle, maybe as far south as a Channing to Borger to Canadian, TX line. The ETA at 72hrs is showing a good overlap of higher CAPE/SRH/TD over and near the far eastern portion of the OK Panhandle just to the east of the 500mb low. Also worth noting at 72hrs (500mb) is a small vort max over about that same area. Obviously this has/will vary from run-to-run, and it was hinted in the previous run a bit further east of where it's progged now. ETA is also showing a small cap over the area as well, but it looks pretty meager, I think. I'm still concerned with moisture and wonder if the bases will be low enough to support any real tornado threat. The ETA from this morning is throwing bulls-eye of 65 TD over the eastern part of the OK Panhandle, but I'm not 100% sure I buy into that just yet. Temps in the mid 70s with TDs in the mid 60s will make for a nice T/TD spread. It's a nice thought if moisture can pool in there and tap into the ETA's progged 2000 CAPE and SRH values. Still could be better, but I've seen worse for October. I'm anxious to see how the next few runs change (or not); I do feel a bit at a loss since I really haven't taken a good look at things previous to today. Other than a more southward setup, I'm not sure how everything else has looked.

I said in my blog I was going for Liberal to split the difference, but obviously the low is a bit further south with this run than the previous, however, Liberal may not be a bad starting point coming out of Denver, so as of now, I'm aiming for there as a starting point Wednesday, although I would imagine my focus will shift into the Panhandle almost directly south of there, but since its barely an hour difference, I'm not going to worry too much about it if I get down to Liberal by noon. Its 6 to 7 hours drive for me, so as long as I am well on my way by 6am, I should be fine. With that in mind, I figure I'll leave by 5am Denver time which should get me into position no later than 1pm CT. However, if I feel the need to leave Tuesday night, I can do so by 8pm after class and get almost all the way into Liberal before stopping. I'll play it by year and see how the next couple runs evolve this system.

With the latest ETA/NAM in, I saw the continued trend to shift the low further south; however, the GFS continues to have the low further north into KS/OK, which would be my preference. Referring to this morning's ETA, it seems to want to push the cold front all the way into the middle of the Texas Panhandle. CAPE values don't look very impressive at all in that area, barely cranking 1500, which is decent, but not great. I'm not thrilled with this latest run of the ETA which really has shoved all the goodies I talked about in that email this morning well to the south. While not out of range, it starts to flirt with how far south to travel before its not really worth the chance? If the GFS holds true, which after the luck with ETA this Spring, I'm hoping it does, then things should remain fixed in Southern Kansas/Oklahoma Panhandle with the low tracking across the area through the day.

My next move is to await the new GFS to see if it maintains its forecast in keeping the low further north. If the ETA/NAM can come to terms with this and start to agree with the GFS, I'll be much happier. As it sits right now, the further south the low looks to go, the further chance of me taking the chance. I can suffer a semi-decent day in Southern Kansas/Oklahoma Panhandle, but I'd be a bit out if I ended up in the southern portions of the TX Panhandle.

As has been brought up by chasers who have looked at this in more detail longer, the GFS has been consistant with its upper air patterns, which hopefully means its got a better grip on things and will prove more true than the ETA. We shall see in upcoming runs.
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Chase alert went up to moderate this morning as I am making preparations for this mid-October chase. Due to some class-related assignments I have due this morning, I won't have time to run a forecast on the latest models til this afternoon, however in the brief glimpse I took first thing this morning, I see I have a couple areas of concern for Wednesday's chase.

Kansas: The low, the setup which scored so well in April is a tempting option with this system. However, less surface moisture and higher cloud bases may limit the tornado threat. There's a hint that TDs could close in on 60 around this area, which would make this a more tempting play.

TX/OK Panhandles: The cold front/dryline, better moisture, shear, and instability seem to be progged for this area, which would increase potential for supercell storms. With the best dynamics sitting further south, this also makes a tempting play.

Time isn't an issue with me for this. If I elect to take a southern target, I'll probably leave after my last class Tuesday night which would put me on the road around 8pm MDT. If Kansas is my choice for the day, I'll be out the door first thing Wednesday morning.

At this moment, if I had to pick a target city, I would say Liberal and split the difference. While the better dynamics seem to be further south along the cold front/dryline, its hard to ignore the setups in April which yielded tornadoes near the low. I have already sent an email requesting coverage for Wednesday, and already have 4 of the 6 hours covered, so aside from classes, I should be all set.

More in depth forecast and analysis in a few hours...
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Sunday, October 16, 2005

 

Looks like the mid-week setup is shaping up to be Hump Day. I dove into a nice forecast this morning, but the entry isn't here nor saved anywhere... I'll go more into that tomorrow, but wanted to update. I am in SLIGHT mode as of now as my preliminary target will be the Hays area for Wednesday. Unfortunately, Wednesday is one of my busier days as I have Calc and Thermo; 6 hours of work, and am suppose to present at the Storm Chaser meeting at NWS Wednesday night. As I told a chaser buddy of mine, I am asking the meeting's organizer, Dr. Wagner, who is also teaching the Thermodynamics class I would miss if I chase Wednesday! *LOL* Talk about saga! More on the forecast tomorrow, but as of now, its in planning. Tomorrow's runs will determine whether I look for work coverage or not.
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Saturday, October 15, 2005

 

Lubacca 2005 is almost done! As of this afternoon, I have successfully rendered the graphics to the video segments and all that's left to do is create the menu and overdub some music in a few places and it's set to go. Barring any setbacks, the DVD should be burned easily before the Halloween deadline.

I have also begun work on the graphics for the 2004/2005 compilation DVD. Again, this project is for one of my Technical Communications classes, but will likely be the Lubacca 2004 replacement and will go on sale around the Holidays. The graphics for the compilation DVD will be about the same as the 2005 graphics, but with a few smaller changes as 2005's graphics were created as a test for the biggie which is upcoming.

So yeah, watch for Lubacca 2005 in the next couple weeks! It's a click shy of being finished!
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Friday, October 14, 2005

 

The annual October-fest chase may be upcoming as the models are hinting at a system for the Southern Plains late next week. A Thursday chase would fit beautifully into my schedule if things continue to evolve in that direction... more later...
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Monday, October 10, 2005

 

I have elected to drop out of Winter Weather Alert mode as this system is winding down. Officially, there is still 2 hours left on the Winter Storm Warning, but the snow has pretty well tapered off here in the Metro area. Places out east got hammered with this storm as nearly 2 feet of snow fell in places from E-470 east towards Deer Trail. Major tree damage has also been reported in the eastern sides of the Metro area as well as places east of there. Here in Central Denver and in Lakewood by my place, disappointing totals of barely 3 inches were recorded with higher amounts in the Southwest sections of town where I work. The storm accumulations were right on, just 50 miles east of where they were said to be. First storm of the season got the best of forecasters both amature and professional as it was at midnight last night when accumulations were predicted to be as high in the city as they ended being on the Plains.

Hopefully this is an omen to the season in terms of setups and maybe we'll get lucky here in town to get the hammering the places out east got. Hopefully we'll also be able to get a better grip on the forecast prior to the storm as I think many people east of town got a very unpleasent surprise when they awakened this morning.
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Between classes, I noticed the snow here in Denver was coming down as hard as it had been the entire storm thus far. That was an hour ago; on break in Calc 3 and noticed the snow has again tapered off here in the Metro area. Current radar loop showing the heavier snow still off to the east near Deer Trail. Below are some pictures from the snow burst about an hour ago from the Auraria Campus in downtown Denver. Click for larger image. As you can see, we've hardly had any accumulation here in the Metro area. Check out the grassy areas.



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After crashing out for a quick hour nap before kicking off the day, I caught a bus to campus and will kick off my work week as usual. Snow was still falling at a light to sometimes moderate clip, but accumulations were no more than 2 inches anywhere. At my place, about 1.5 inches in spots; campus had about an inch. Fellow Storm Chaser Mike Umscheid came out from Dodge City and chased this snowstorm in Castle Rock where he currently is located. He's updating his blog with his reports from there and I invite you to follow him as well on his blog. I did post a picture on the front page I took at the bus stop this morning of my car and the light coating of snow behind it. This storm is expected to weaken as the day progresses, but its possible to see another couple of inches before all is said and done. Mike so far has seen 5.6 inches of snow in Castle Rock, which sounds about right. The current radar loop is showing the heavier snows still off to the east of the I-25 corridor, but slowly making its way back to the west which may give us a shot at some heavier snow before this storm dies out. The killer was the westerly wind component which took away from the low-level upslope and kept the heavier precip off to our east. Temperatures played a role as well as lighter falling snow had more of a chance to melt off before it could pile up. Both those factors combined to really kill off the snowfall for the Urban Corridor. While I'm not sure how well we would've done had the winds stayed easterly, but it would've certainly been a helluva lot better than what we did thus far. Roads were wet and sometimes slushy, but overall, it looks as if the rush hour will survive (minus the idiot-factor). I'll update again about noon.
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As of 5:30am, my place in Lakewood has seen less than 2 inches, and that's being generous. Looks like the winds at lower levels had a westerly component which severely hampered the snow production over night. A huge disappointment to which really came as no surprise, although my thoughts on lower accumulations came from warmer temps as opposed to a westerly wind. In any case, definately not the storm it was hyped up to be and certainly no real big surprise.
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Sunday, October 09, 2005

 

A helluva storm brewing and it looks like it could be a doozie. Don't be surprised to look back at this storm as the Columbus Day Blizzard of 2005. NWS has upped the snowfall totals since this morning; going from earlier predictions of up to a foot to accumulations between 8 and 18 inches with up to two feet along the Palmer Divide. As of this entry, a cold rain is still falling as it has been all day, although there was a brief period of sleet while my Dad and I were at the Redskins/Broncos game this afternoon (yes, we lost a close game, but what an offensive performance). I'm still a bit skeptical of the current predictions and think we'll be on the lower end of those numbers as I'm not sure how long into the snow it'll be before it actually starts to stick. While I'm secretly crossing my fingers for 18 inches, I wouldn't be surprised if we see less than 6 inches total, even as the equivilent of 18 inches could easily fall.

The biggest problem appears to be the weight of what'll be a heavy, wet snow on the vegitation. NWS Denver is warning of potentially devestating damage to trees with this storm. That may prove to be the biggest problem as this could lead to long-term power outages. As the night wears on, the rain will change over and the fun will begin. I have my alarm set for 6:00am and will see how conditions look in the morning. Would be nice to have a snow day, huh! Stay tuned!
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Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for the Mountains, Foothills, and Urban Corridor starting tonight and going through Monday night. Snowfall accumulations of 1 to 2 feet are possible in the mountains and anywhere between 6 and 12 inches for the Urban Corridor. I think people looking at those numbers may find them a bit deceiving as I'm not 100% confident how much will stick. I think we'll be on the lower end of those totals with a few exceptions, but I'm not going to hold my breath for 12 plus inches of snow by storm's end.

Models have put a damper on what could be a good storm by creating a NW component of the wind over the western parts of the Metro area. This would hamper snowfall and likely keep the higher accumulations away from the Front Range. Massive and moist accent will be occuring with this system, so it won't completely shut us down, but it'll give us a lull in what could be a non-stop heavy snow producer.

Power outages and broken trees will also be a problem with this system as leaves are still on most of the trees. This will be a heavy, wet snow and will greatly weigh down most trees, causing branches to snap and possibly knock out some power lines in the process.

Will be interesting to watch, so stay tuned. But, before this storm, I gotta go watch the Skins beat them Donkeys. You know that already from my previous entry, but I had to say it again! GO REDSKINS!!!
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Saturday, October 08, 2005

 

Wahoo! The first major storm of the winter season is taking aim on Colorado today. I have shifted into Winter Weather Alert Mode as the potential of upwards of a foot of snow in the Metro area is possible starting very early Monday morning and going thorughout the day Monday. Temperatures remain the biggest and most uncertain question at this time and will play the deciding role in exactly how much snow accumulates here in town. The chance for heavy falling snow is high, but how much will be able to stick around is yet to be determined. QPF models indicating as high as 2 inches of liquid which leaves the possibility for quite a bit of snow pending the changeover Sunday night. It does look like a safe bet to say temps will get cold enough from I-25 westward for snow to fall at some point for at least a duration of six hours. During this time, we'll see the big, heavy flakes and likely some very heavy amounts coming down in short periods of time. Again, how much will be able to stick around is still unknown.

Since I will be watching the Redskins kick some Donkey butt tomorrow at the stadium, I likely will not get to update again til much later in the day Sunday, if at all. By then, I'm hopeful things will have cleared up enough to give us an idea of what we'll see by the time this system moves out. This is a classic scenario for a major dumper if we can cool it down enough.
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Friday, October 07, 2005

 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1058 AM MDT FRI OCT 07 2005

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT EASTERN FOOTHILLS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN WILL BE MIXED WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY OVER MOST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR ON MONDAY.

THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA.


Interesting scenario playing out for early in the week as what should be our first winter storm of the season pushes through. While I personally think temps will be too warm here in the Metro area to support much in the way of snow accumulation, heavy falling snow could be a good bet to create an interesting situation for Monday.

This is a beautiful setup with a closed low expected across the southern part of the state kicking moist, upslope flow along the eastern slopes and foothills. This storm has been in the model makings since earlier this week and has been the focus of my weather attention this last week as the models began to merge on a favorable solution for this system to make a decent impact on Colorado. It looks as if the mountains will take the plunge with some very good snow totals and get the season off to a good start.

Again, the question will be how far down will the cold air make it to support snow. Snow levels sit about 5500 feet ATTM, which would support snow fall in the far western suburbs. Again, a lot still in the works and the biggest question will be whether it'll be cold enough here in Denver to support snow; and assuming it does, how much will accumulate.
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Saturday, October 01, 2005

 

Obviously I didn't chase yesterday... lots of cry wolfs lately in terms of something catching my eyes. To be honest, after that entry and watching as things evolved throughout the week, I became less and less enticed and eventually let it go. Talks in Stormtrack indicated the storm was a beauty, but at this point in the season, its nothing something I'm going to lose sleep over. It would've been nice, though, cause I could've made the trip a multi-day chaseathon with today's setup aiming for Oklahoma; a short drive from where I likely would've ended up had I chased yesterday. I would've used Sunday as my return day home (after watching the Redskins game in Norman). Ah well... saving my money for later. No worries.

It's October 1.. today's high is suppose to be 90 FREAKIN' DEGREES!!! When will it ever end!!!
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