Chasing? Perhaps; nothing that has me getting out of work just yet, but something which definately has my eye for the end of the week. GFS models indicating the potential for a decent chase day in the TX/OK Panhandles on Friday. While this is a long way's out, its in territory I can make up and back in a day AND it falls on a day where I have off! My only scheduling adjustment would probably be swapping out Saturday's shift at school for something on Thursday; aside from that, it would be a free trip!
Forecasts are good with shear, but lacking in instability. As
Nick Grillo points out in his forecast post, and also which has been the case lately, the GFS seems to be under-doing the moisture which is progged to be pretty minimum during the day on Friday. If that holds to be the case, I probably will bail on heading down, however, IF the GFS can maintain the shear and bring in some moisture, it definately holds worth watching over the next couple days. I probably won't begin making any plans with this til Wednesday, tomorrow at the earliest if later model runs scream something which grabs my attention.
I thought it was worth mentioning since this setup has grabbed my attention much more so than the previous few setups I've batted an eyelash over. As I said, I'm not going all gung-ho right now cause its still a ways out and likely will change half a dozen times, but its something I am eyeing for the end of the week.
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Friday, September 23, 2005
Chasing had actually given itself a shot for about 5 minutes yesterday, but like the past several "shots", I, too, had my doubts and elected to continue with my normal life. This passed Sunday, I had talked to Jon Merage about the potential chasing in Nebraska, but informed him of my doubts and how the passed several systems had been disappointments for tornadoes. I figured the same would work with that setup because there was nothing in the models or forecasts that indicated any real difference in the setup. By the end of the day, the
total number of tornadoes reported: ZERO.
Today had a brief glimpse of hope for me in terms of chasing closer to home, however, I was again discouraged by the models output of today and failed to see enough reason to pay $3.00 a gallon to venture out that way. SPC's agreement came in the form of no tornado threat, a very slim hail threat, and a slight wind threat. It's hard to get excited about systems this time of year, but with so many outside factors in play now (school, work, gas prices), it takes even more to get out. I will again shrug this one off and save myself for Spring.
I have also elected to NOT purchase any major equipment for the 2006 season. With the money I will get from tax returns and other sources, I will save for the trip itself. I have plenty to be out and doing what I do and see no reason to go out and spend a grand on WX Worx or anything else major. Might as well save the money I have so I can actually afford to chase next Spring. My dates are still holding in terms of my Mayathon Chasecation which will cover the last two weeks of May and the first two weeks of June.
My focus has once again shifted to the prodution of "
Lubacca 2005 - Well That Sucked". I have decided to push back the release date to Halloween as the move and surrounding issues kept me away from the project longer than I would've liked. Its likely I will get it released earlier, but I'll aim for October 31 to be safe. I'm going to open the doors for pre-ordering in the next week just so I can begin to get a talley of how many I may need to make right out of the gate. For those keeping tabs on this, videos and DVDs will be shipped no later than Friday, November 4 for all those pre-ordering their copies. I have set the price to be the same as Lubacca 2004 at $15.00 per copy.
Fall has arrived in Colorado as temps are expected to remain in the 60s and 70s through next week! A much welcomed change for us as the summer's record heat is now simply a distant memory. I am very happy to see the cooler temps arrive and look forward to a couple quiet months before the snows arrive and the bets for blizzards begin! :o)
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Monday, September 19, 2005
While this has absolutely nothing to do with chasing other than the friends I have who are crying at home right now (Amos, Roger; what a game! WOW!!!!)...
HAIL TO THE REDSKINS!!!!
Santana Moss catches the second of his two HUGE touchdowns to beat the Cowboys 14-13 in Texas!!!
One of the greatest endings I have seen and FINALLY... we beat the Cowboys! What a game! My Dad and I shared the last 3 minutes via cell phone as he and I kept the neighbors up here in Colorado and down in Snyder, Texas!!! What an incredible game! Who would've guessed the Redskins and their lack of offense would all of a sudden wake up and win what is probably the biggest game since Gibbs' return last year! Did you see Joe Gibbs take the Gatorade!! I don't think I've ever seen him that happy!!! And trust me, it was well shared all over the country by Skins fans everywhere!
Again...
HAIL TO THE REDSKINS!!!!
This says it all! What a game!!!
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Wednesday, September 14, 2005
A rather impressive storm is rolling across the southern portions of the Denver Metro area ATTM.
CHannel 9 News is saying they've received reports of golfball sized hail. I have been following this storm on WXTap and called a couple folks down in the area and none of them could even confirm hail, let alone golfball hail. Heavy rain has been reported, however, which is no surprise as the storm has peaked near 60dbz. Here downtown, some light to moderate rain is falling and lightning and thunder can been seen and heard from the south. As for the severity of the storm, NWS Denver has yet to issue a warning or even really talk about it in short term discussions, which leads me to believe whatever 9 News is talking about isn't confirmed. From the few people I talked to just north of Chatfield Reservoir and along Hwy 285 in Lakewood, no hail has been reported. Will pass along more later as this storm works its way across the southern parts of town. I'll end this as a loud clap of thunder rumbles away outside.
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Interesting scenario setting up in the Southern Plains this afternoon. The cold front which ushered in the cooler temperatures and gorgeous night I spoke of last night will bring a substantial chance for severe weather in parts of Texas and Oklahoma this afternoon and evening. Its a tempting setup to chase for the middle of September and more thought would've been given to it if not for the pair of exams which I have this week; one Monday and the other today. Supercells seem like a good bet initially as storms form, but as the evening progresses, a MCS will likely develop. Several chasers I know are heading out today, most of them residents of the threatened area as I am not sure such a late setup would warrent many regional chasers to pump away close to $3.00 a gallon to skip their way down there and back. I'd likely be in that boat as well as my finances at the moment would prevent me from doing a lot thanks in part to my recent (and ongoing) move and as well as the fact I have my money spoken for elsewhere ATTM. Assuming I had the cash on hand, it may be a tempting thought being I could've worked around my schedule beautifully assuming I had no exam this afternoon. No worries, though. I imagine I'll get one more chance to chase before winter comes into the picture, so I'll keep myself open for that and watch today with eager eyes as my friends again take to the fields for a post-season adventure. Good luck and be safe all!
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Tuesday, September 13, 2005
Something not too often seen here in Denver; noctournal thunderstorms. A bright light show is occuring in places north of my Lakewood apartment. Unfortunately its more of a "heat lightning" display more than anything else. Some thunder has rumbled around the area which is keeping my ears perked. Its been doing this off and on for nearly 3 hours now, which is strange for Denver, although not totally unheard of. Temps right now range from the upper 40s near the foothills to lower 50s out east of town. Jeffo Airports has a 48 degree temp; DIA at 51; Buckley at 52, and Centennial at 51. So its very cool here right now! But very nice! This semi-moist air with the gentle breeze reminds me a lot of being back in Ohio. Its kind of refreshing. Hard to motivate myself enough to get to a nearby hilltop to film the lightning. I'm very content with lying in bed and letting it put me to sleep. Will give me that feeling I use to have when I was a child back in Circleville in the late summer months when nighttime storms would rumble throughout the night. I do miss those days. And weather like this pulls me back to give my feet a dip into a pool I often think back on. What a gorgeous evening! This will probably be the last of this I will see til sometime next year.
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Wednesday, September 07, 2005
Beautiful Supercell out in Washington County south of Akron heading towards the town of Elba. The storm started developing near I-76 north of Akron and stay nearly stationary until it exploded where it made a hard dive to the south on its current course. It picked up a TORNADO WARNING at 6:45 with a nice hook on several frames which has since been swallowed up by the nearly 70dbz core. A storm tried to develop to its immediate south and has since died. I would imagine the Washington County storm will do the same when it gets down there as it begins to ingest the leftovers from that storm. Would be anxious to see if anyone jumped out there as SPC put out an MD for the area at about 5:00pm and would've allowed for anyone who was available to get out there in enough time to intercept this storm. Baseball sized hail was also mentioned as a possibility with this storm as it trucked south at 20mph. I won't be chasing today, so I eagerly await any reports from this lone storm out east!
Here's the Severe WX Statement from the storm as of 6:55pm MDT...
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
655 PM MDT WED SEP 7 2005
...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 715 PM MDT FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY...
AT 652 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF ELBA...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AKRON. THIS STORM WAS MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH. IN ADDITION THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS. PERSONS LIVING IN AND TO THE EAST OF ELBA SHOULD TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!!
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ELBA.
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