Thursday, June 30, 2005
Verne Carlson and I took off after 6pm this passed Monday to try and catch a late show out of a prolific tornado producer which was slowly moving south/southeastward into Logan, Sedgwick, and Phillips Counties in Northeast Colorado from the Nebraska Panhandle. When we arrived, the tornado show had ended, but the beauty of the storm had not. We gawked over the mammatus and hung around for a bit to shoot some great lightning. I posted a complete log which can be seen by clicking on the below image.
In other news, still doing some minor website updates and repairs. Swapped out the 2005 lightning shots to put the newest on top. Also makes it a bit easier for me to insert rows to add the new shots. Also added a quicklink to the index page that flat-out asks visitors if they're looking for pictures and chase reports. The link sends them straight to my log page where they can see the chase reports as well as go to photo albums with log links.
Aside from that, not much chasing weather to speak of. I'm in working mode right now, so anything over the next couple days will have to be on top of me for me to get to it. Otherwise, I'm sidelined again. SPC does have a 2% tornado prob stretching from about Hwy 34 southward through Eastern Colorado and curving into Kansas and the Panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas. I'm not overly impressed with the setup, but having the day off would've warrented heading out anyway.
As for the weekend, I'm going to Snyder to visit my Dad over the 4th. I am bringing a skeleton setup of equipment with me in case something were to fire. I am flying into Dallas on Sunday and renting a car to make the 4 hour trek into Snyder. I return Tuesday with my flight out of Dallas. If something chasable accidentally breaks out, I will have a video camera and my digital still with me. Other than that, I'll be pretty blind in the field except for the Wifi on my lappy.
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Sunday, June 26, 2005
Nevermind... my appearance isn't til Tuesday... I will not be leaving today... right now, I would also be willing to say I likely won't chase today either as damaging winds seem to be the rul for today. Not much moisture to work with. Will likely stay home and catch up on things around the house.
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A couple days of "spotter" chasing may be in the works for me starting this afternoon. With tomorrow's "appointment" in Tribune, Kansas, I may find it easier for me to chase out in Eastern Colorado this afternoon and evening, stay the night in Goodland, head down to Tribune for my thing, then stick around and chase west back into Colorado (or along the KS/CO border) Monday before heading home. Again, all this basically sits around my Tribune appearance, otherwise I wouldn't really be considering this. I'm not hopeful for tornadoes and beautiful structure, mainly some soaker storms with some hail and maybe some after dark lightning. We'll see how it all plays out. Today's target looks like it'll be north of US Hwy 36, so pending how storms develop, I'll probably head out and play with those til dark, then retreat to Goodland for the night. It's a little over an hour to Tribune from Goodland, so assuming I leave by 9am, I should arrive in plenty of time for my 11am appearance. From there, I can retreat back into Colorado and get a look at things and play the rest of the day. Hopefully I can muster something fun!
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Saturday, June 25, 2005
Last night, I had a 27 mile mini-chase starting at a Littleton Sports Bar! I met my girlfriend and a couple of my other friends at a nearby sports bar after work last night. When we headed into the parking lot shortly after 10p, I saw heat lightning to the south and quickly headed down the street for a better look. Some lightning crawlers and a couple CGs were sneaking their way over the mountains from a storm south of the Palmer Divide in Douglas County. I went through about 40 shots and only came out with one decent shot worth posting, but I managed to at least score another for the 2005 portfolio.
My E-470 express thingie arrived yesterday as well. Upon the suggestion of fellow Colorado chaser Verne Carlson, I signed up for E-470 Express Toll. They sent me a small flat box I attach to my windshield which will allow me to skip the toll booths on E-470 and make good time going from north-to-south (or vice versa) on the east side of town. I may only use it a couple times a year, but it'll become a valuable tool and worth while immediately when I am trying to make time at 5:30pm on a weekday and I don't have to spend 10 minutes in line. The Express Toll also covers the Northwest Parkway which gives me a west-to-east route across the north side of town starting at Flat Irons near Boulder and shooting to E-470 and south to I-25. Again, I have never used this road, but will be inclined to now that I can just race 70mph all the way through.
Chasing holds some potential for the upcoming few days off. Tomorrow may be an Eastern Colorado day. Nothing which looks overly impressive, but enough where it warrents an eye to the sky if something should go. Last night, storms with 1 inch hail and street flooding rolled through Brighton. Something like that would work well for me. Later in the week, talks of a SD/NE potential. That's a bit in the outer circle at the moment, but again, bares watching. If it really looks good come Monday, I'll start making arrangements to chase it.
Beyond that, we're coming into July which is historically the stormiest month in the Denver area. This will be where the 4 weekly days off will come into play as storms will almost be a daily occurance (climatologically speaking). My role will normally fall under a spotter catagory, but I have chased into Northeastern Colorado into Nebraska a couple times during this month, so its possible to have tornado potential as well.
Stay tuned for later updates! :o)
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Friday, June 24, 2005
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1442
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005
ISOLD SVR TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF ERN CO BEGINNING AROUND 20Z. THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW THAT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED OVER THE MTNS OF CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD DO SO OVER THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...CNVTN SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE MTNS OF CENTRAL CO AND INTO THE FRONT RANGE BY 20Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG STATIONARY BDRY EXTENDING FROM NEAR PUB EWD TO NEAR LAA...AND ALSO OVER THE PALMER RIDGE. UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK BEHIND STATIONARY FRONT...BUT SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR SOME INFLOW TO SUPPORT STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREA REMAINS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NRN RCKYS/PLNS. HOWEVER...STRONG UPPER LVL FLOW SUPPORTING STORM TOP DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH ENELY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SUPPORT SOME SVR HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 30+ DWPNT DEPRESSIONS NEAR THE SFC WILL FAVOR ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS AS WELL.
..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2005
Storms are developing in the mountains and are moving east/northeast into the Front Range. SPC's analysis pretty well nails it on the head as storms will likely start effecting areas east of the Hogback before too long. I'm restricted to work this afternoon, so I'm not going to sweat today. Hail may be a concern, but I would imagine anything significant will be hard to come by today. Tomorrow may be a whole other story, but its one day at a time now that summer's officially kicked off and I'm stuck at work during the early parts of the weekend.
Anywoo, keeping an eye on things just in case something rolls off the hills and into the Metro area, particularly if things crank up downtown. I left my cell phone at home today, so assuming I get a few minutes to take the detour, I'll run home and grab it in case I end up spotting while driving pies!
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Wednesday, June 22, 2005
Its dryer today than its been over the passed couple of days. A gusty storm is passing overhead cooling things down with some 30mph gusts. Nothing too exciting anywhere really. Some stuff developed out east near DIA but quickly fizzled. Another small round has developed in Southern Douglas County moving northward towards DIA. If it holds together, I may venture out east for some shots if they can move slowly enough and hold together til dark. We'll see.
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More spotting yesterday as I tracked a westward storm from Arvada into Louisville before turning around and heading back into Denver. Took a few 1-inch slushy stones and some pea-sized chunks along the way, but nothing which amounted to anything like I saw Monday. Jon V and Verne got to enjoy the chase from their backyards and Jon's email report was actually quite hilarious. They saw more hail than I did as I was constantly on the move trying to get in position on city streets. In any case, my trip ended at 48 miles with nothing really significant to report. Colorado Springs on the other hand, well they had plenty to deal with! Pretty cool stuff!
Today, much of the same, more slow moving storms with heavy rain potential. Will keep things open just in case something passes over town again. Hail remains a threat, but flooding will be the big deal again today.
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Monday, June 20, 2005
I planned this day perfectly! I bumped my work coverage earlier in the day and stayed til 5. I made it home in time to see the storm firing south of Ken Carly. I jumped south on Kipling to Belleview where I turned around and paraelled the storm northward as crazy CGs gave way to earthquake-like thunder. I jumped on C-470 and took it to I-70 where I again pulled north into Arvada from Kipling where I began to observe street flooding in a neighborhood just north of Ralston on Kipling. I shot there for a bit before heading down to 58th to a King Soopers parking lot which was pretty heavily flooded with a couple feet of water at its peak. I shot some video, headed to campus for a quick upload to BNVN and returned home where I quickly showered away the crap I waded through. Hopefully it'll be airing tomorrow morning!
COMPLETE LOG HERE!!!
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I picked up some extra hours at work today which I shifted earlier in the day to make room to get out this evening if the weather can warrent. We're definately in summer mode; slow moving storms dumping oodles of rain and small hail. Flooding will be a threat today and I wanted to insure I wasn't trapped elsewhere when things kicked off. I can basically take off whenever I need to and should be able to get to where I need to be. Once storms start to fire and get into the Metro area, I'll make my way over to those areas and hopefully get soaked with some crazy rains and hail! In the meantime, hot weather has definately returned and its here for a while.
Oh yeah, check this out; from this morning's AFD...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
330 AM MDT MON JUN 20 2005
OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS REALLY MESSED UP THE SURFACE PATTERN LAST NIGHT. THE STORMS MIXED DOWN A LOT OF DRY AIR WITH A HEAT BURST ACROSS PARTS OF MORGAN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES WITH TEMPERATURES REPORTEDLY IN THE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AROUND 1 AM.
That must've been a shock to the residents of Fort Morgan last night. I'm trying to find some archived SFC obs from last night to see the flucutation in temperatures. Akron reported a 1am temperature of 82, up 9 degrees from the midnight 73 ob. Winds gusting from the southwest at 28. Pretty crazy to see that. Would've been even crazier to be there!
Anywoo, off to kill time... watching the radar and waiting to make my escape!
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The season got summed up tonight by a few lyrics in a song. Storms did flare this evening prompting severe warnings east of the Metro area. Obviously I made engadgments for the evening and missed the daylit show. I stalled at the apartment til after sunset in hopes of catching some good lightning shots. With storms firing everywhere, it seemed like a good bet. Well, my girlfriend and I jumped into my car and headed out to E-470 and Quincy to try and shoot lightning which was very active to our east. As we pulled onto a side street, a very close, vivid, and beautiful bolt dropped from the sky. That was basically Nature's way of smacking me in the face. As soon as I pulled off and armed the camera, the CGs were nowhere to be found. After 30 minutes, I bitched more 2005 frustrations and packed the camera away to make the trip back home. When I turned on the car, Roxette's "Fading Like a Flower" was playing; the first line that came on...
"Beaten by the storm..."
That right there summed up the 2005 season... I can't even get lightning on a stormy evening to appear for me. When I returned home, a second chance was offering itself in the foothills near my place (figures). I dropped Dania off to bed and ventured out. None of the storms would get passed the mountains, thus all the CGs were blocked. I finally threw in the towel and headed home after eating a consolation snack from Wendy's. I pulled into my complex with 98 useless miles tacked on to this dismal season. I wasn't looking for tornadoes... all I wanted was some CGs... I can't even get that... I am cursed this year... I now have no doubt. As the thunder echos into the night sky tonight, I am left with the endless repeating of Roxette's words...
Beaten by the storm...
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Sunday, June 19, 2005
Dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s in Northeast Colorado; 59 in Greeley, 63 in Akron. Lower closer to town with only 40s in and around the Metro area with a 48 at Jeffco. Its a shame there isn't a better setup for storms as TDs in the 60s up here would be crazy!! Will keep an eye on things through the afternoon and evening just in case something is able to flare up.
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Saturday, June 18, 2005
The ridge has arrived... temps in the 90s as far as the eye can see for Denver and vicinity... summer is here. Any hopes for chasing have been gashed pretty hard as this ridge will prevent good systems from getting down in the area. Pending my motivation and ability to chase, I will keep an eye on the Dakotas and maybe northern Nebraska to hold my hopes for chasing. Eastern Colorado still holds potential in some cases, but as July rolls in, my chasing becomes less and less. Aside from a 4th of July trip to Snyder, Texas to see my Dad (which I will bring my cameras just in case), I probably will not see the Southern Plains for chasing again til sometime later in the year, possibly well into next year. This weekend upon completion of my working tonight, I will probably spend cleaning out the car and putting the front seat back in. With the Jotto Desk out, there's no reason not to have the seat in the car anymore. That and I think people are tired of being crammed in the back when I take them places! *LOL* In any case, things are definately winding down. I do have a couple things I want to do/get before next season...
- Baron WX Worx
- Lens Adapters for my Canon A85
- Reinstall the Jotto in a Better Position
- Replace my HAM Antenna
- Converge Radios/Eliminate Antennas
- Get Another Mobile HAM
Probably more later on as I get a chance to evaluate the season and see what my finances will result in allowing me to get and chase. In the meantime, just cleaning up and getting myself prepared to rejoin the real world for the next several months!
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Thursday, June 16, 2005
Verne, Jon V, and I had fun yesterday on our gentleman's chase into Eastern Colorado. Fortunately Nature gave us a bit of a break by allowing us to go home early in the evening as opposed to chasing the giant MCS into Kansas. After dropping Jon off at his jeep, Verne brought me back to my car in Denver and joined me back at the Holiday Inn parking lot to steal some Wifi to make sure we weren't missing anything and were safe to head back west through town. Turns out Trego County was lighting up again and while it briefly brought a goddammit to my face, I realized I was tired and was happy to be heading home. I felt my weariness settling in after a rude awakening early in the morning by the idiotic maintance people at our complex who feel they have to finish all the loud obnoxious work at 8:30am!
Today holds some slim potential for severe, but looking at things for today, it looks as if slow moving storms and good moisture will make for a heavy rain issue with flooding potential. Almost looks like a monsoon-type setup with slow moving soakers, typically a pattern we see around here in late July/early August. These types of setups bode better for nighttime storms with good lightning. However, the heavy rain sometimes cancels that out as its a pain to shoot lightning in torrential rain.
The next few days looks relatively quiet for areas in and round here. A nice change of pace for me as I won't be missing much. I gave into the fact that I missed the best week of chasing this season and I'm likely gonna feel shafted on this season with as much road time as I put in. Basically, I've let go of the frustrations and realized I can't do anything to change 2005. I have to look ahead and figure out how to play 2006. Right now, I'm in winding down mode as any chasable weather will push up into the Northern Plains and hopefully allow for shorter trips and maybe one more photogenic tornado before all goes to summer-mode. My lightning shooting days, however, have just begun, so while the blood and guts of the chasing season has passed, there is still some gold to be worked from the clouds.
Anywoo, going to spend most of today doing website updates. I want to start knocking out my media services page and getting my tornado and lightning albums up and running again! That's my plan for today and the upcoming days while on campus since the weather won't have all my attention for a change!
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Wednesday, June 15, 2005
A simple restarting of my lappy seemed to fix the blog issue...
Today, a local chase is in store for Eastern Colorado. While tornado chances are slim today with high T/Td spreads, there is a possibility for supercell strutures with at least some hail and winds. More of a video shooting day than anything else. Storms are expected to fire off the Palmer Divide this afternoon and move into the Plains where better moisture will be available for storms to feed from. Storms that do develop and move into the Plains will intensify with large hail and winds being the primary threat. If a Denver Cyclone forms a DCVZ, shear will enhance along the boundry and add to tornado potential when storms interact with that boundry. I've been in touch with Verne and if he has room, will go meet him out east and jump in with him to give my car a break after its 1573 mile trip a couple days ago. I did go in yesterday to change the oil again and get the windshield pit repaired as I imagine another couple weeks of good chasing before slim pickins arrive for the summer months.
Anywoo, not very high expectations today; more of a casual, gentleman's chase out east, so not going to bring the whole arsenal of gadgets; just the computer and cameras. Should be fun!
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Tuesday, June 14, 2005
My Blog appears to be working oddly... I cannot get it to display on my computer, but it appears to be a computer-related problem with me. So til then, I'll keep posting blank logs! *LOL*
I'm eyeing tomorrow in Eastern Colorado for a semi-local chase after running up 1573 miles in two days. Yesterday's chase put me over the 14,000 mile mark for the season, which indicates I'll easily surpass last year's 15,000 miles. It was a fun couple of days!
Anywoo, going to keep an eye on things for tomorrow and hopefully get some Eastern Colorado action. In the meantime, I'm gonna try and fix this blogger issue.
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Monday, June 13, 2005
Jon Van de Grift and I saw at least one tornado (the talked about 10 minute rope out) and possibly another early on in what became one of the longest one-day marathons I have ever chased. In a day which started at 7am CDT in Denver, we actually made the storms in time to catch at least one tornado! Most everyone who saw and or passed me was amazed to see me at these storms. In what would normally be a disappointing day seeing as most everyone scored so well, I am happy to call this one of my funnest chases to date. Jon and I chased about as naked as it could get; no Baron, no Wifi, no GPS, no WX Radio... a quick radar check on Hwy 287 and a few barely in service cell phone calls to Verne Carlson, our nowcaster, and we basically went by eyes to intercept the three storms today. We missed the best of the action, but made it for one, which at 750 miles at the time, was unreal to have made that trip. We finished the night in Abilene where we ate a quick dinner with Blake Naftel and others before Jon and I went to say goodbye to Amos down the street. We're now in Snyder where we've bunked up at my Dad's place where we'll finish the trip heading to Denver on a rather long trip home tomorrow. We pulled into my Dad's place at 906 miles for the day, which makes for my quickest single chase mileage (906 in 18 hours); the trip will end with over 1,500, placing it into the top 5 longest chases. What a fun day! No disappointment at all; I had a great time today. It was almost stressless with no gadgets to keep tabs of and the get-there-when-we-get-there attitude which passed the time very well. Next thing I knew, we were south of Aspermont on Hwy 83 watching a tornado waaay to our west. Not sure if the video will aid this as we set up shop as the tornado was lifting and the cells were merging. Such a great time, I cannot tell ya! And best of all, we freakin' made it from Denver!!! That's the gold of this trip! Good night all! I'll post my report later this week with pictures!
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Sunday, June 12, 2005
There's a large part of me that says I should just go back to bed! *LOL* I have to fight that urge and hope that MCS gets its happy ass out of the Panhandles and clears up to allow for some heating to get in there. OUN has some pretty strong wording mixed in with great uncertainty in their morning AFD. They even mention the potential for very strong, long track tornadoes. Timing is gonna be a HUGE issue today as we're gonna need everything to come together including the ridding of that MCS which has prompted a severe watch over the Panhandle.
I'm still going to stick with my original plan and shoot east out I-70 to Oakley(ish) and then drop south into Dodge and beyond. Very quick stops will be in store for today as I would LOVE to be in Woodward, Oklahoma before initiation. Guess we'll see! In any case, I'm scarfing down one of the $1.11 OJs I picked up when I filled up last night and am about to put on some clothes, pack, and get ready for Jon's 6am arrival. I may or may not update again pending on whether I have time. Otherwise, my first goal is to be in Dodge City by 2pm CDT!
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Just got home and am about to head to bed.. my last post didn't post (or so it says), so another quickie... SPC's MODERATE risk was no shock, but the 15% was further south than I'd like to see given the time I have to travel tomorrow. The temptation is there to shoot I-25 into NM and venture eastward into AMA, but I'd rather stay in Kansas and ahead of the dryline and get as far south as I can, dropping into the Panhandles as opposed to cutting across them... choices choices...
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Saturday, June 11, 2005
Here are a few posts from NWS Offices in the target areas for tomorrow... good points are in a dark blue/purple... bad points in red.. this is all based upon my KS/OK border target area and the alloted amount of time I have to reach places beyond that...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
253 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005
COULD SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. AFTER THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES EAST, INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE MAY OCCUR
ACROSS THE WEST WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING. THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE WHERE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SETS UP FROM THE
PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THIS BOUNDARY COULD VERY WELL SET UP SOUTH OF
KS WHICH WOULD KEEP THE REAL NASTY WEATHER THERE ALSO. AT ANY RATE,
SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION
AND THEN SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE BY AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE IS
FORECASTED TO BE NEAR DRYLINE DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL MARCH ITS WAY EAST
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS WESTERN
KS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005
SUNDAY COULD STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX DAY FOR THE FA. STRONG
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ROTATE IN THE BASE OF THE WESTERN U.S.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SW U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
TRIPLE POINT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SFC LOW IN THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE/WEST TX WITH FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE FA AND DRYLINE
IN/NEAR WESTERN OK/W N TX BY AFTN. WITH UPR LVL SUPPORT AND BNDRYS
NEAR/IN AREA TSTMS COULD DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY WITH
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.../45-50KTS OVER NW OK/.
HOWEVER....MUCH OF WHAT HAPPENS DEPENDS ON WHAT TRANSPIRES OVERNITE
AND SUN MORNING...WITH VARIOUS OUTFLOW BNDRYS AND THE AMOUNT OF TIME
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO RECOVER FROM THE CONVECTION. ALSO SOME
INDICATION THAT INITIATION MIGHT OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MUCH AS IT
DID FRIDAY WHICH COULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING BECOMING A BIGGER CONCERN.
It's about 6.5 hours to Liberal (411 miles) from my place in Lakewood, which assuming we depart my place at exactly 6am (7am CDT), we should arrive no later than 2:00pm CDT with stops. Assuming convection can hold off then, it's another 2 hours (118 miles) to Woodward, Oklahoma if NW Oklahoma verifies as the place to be.
I think I am going to aim to be in Dodge City by 2pm so we can drop straight south into NW Oklahoma on Hwy 283 from there if we need to. That may also shave 30 minutes as its more of a direct shot to and from Dodge as opposed to Liberal (395+116 vs 411+118).
Tricky game plan tomorrow... hopefully things can hold out.. a 2pm arrival time in Dodge City will be awesome if the prime intiation points can stay close to the area. Otherwise it may be a close call! Either way, I think we should arrive in time.
Here's my visual explanation of where I think the best chances lie for my target region... I do expect to drop a bit south of Dodge, but hopefully not by much...
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Looks like Jon and I are going to be on the road by 6am heading for
either Liberal or Dodge City. Pending what the surface is shaping up
to be later in the morning, I'll decide whether I need to blast south
or just stay ahead of the dryline. I am 90% confident on an initial
target along the KS/OK border someplace between Liberal and I-35,
althought I am keeping my options open for something in the extreme
Northern Texas Panhandle. I want to be on the road with enough time
to make that venture if it proves to be warrented. I'll be on the
phone with a lot of nowcasters tomorrow to help me decide whether that
to be needed.
As for my forecast tomorrow, I'm virtually throwing models and such out the
window. The variance between the different models and the runs
indicate to me that nothing has a grasp of what's going to happen
tomorrow. A lot of tomorrow's setup will rest on the hands of what
goes up today. Cold pools can kill off instability or left over
boundries can add focus. Also, the timing of the trough and movement
of the fronts and dryline will also greatly affect tomorrow's setup.
While I'm confident that we won't cap bust, its hard to say what will
result from tomorrow. In any case, I think our best chances lie
south. Upon arrival in Colby tomorrow morning, I'll take a look at
surface obs and other information over a quick breakfast and pull the
trigger on a southern Liberal target or a more easterly target in
Dodge. Both leave me options to go anywhere, but I want to know
whether I need to blast south or just stay ahead of an approaching
dryline.
I am skeptical on Eastern Colorado's setup for tomorrow as I think
instability will be limited and severe storms won't be as likely. Not
to say it won't happen, but CAPE values don't look to exceed 1000
anywhere in the state. If you can believe the ETA's 36hr forecast of
CAPE, there isn't anything higher than 800 anyplace in the state.
Using the same map, there are bulls-eyes of CAPE right near Dodge City
in Kansas as well as Western Oklahoma. Both with values of 2500J/kg.
The SRH doesn't match up well with either of those bulls-eys with the
better values east of those CAPE maxes. As for moisture, the 55F
isodrosatherm (sp?) sits right along the CO/KS border with values
increasing to the east with 70s stretching from about Pratt southward
into Oklahoma.
500mb flow over the areas show mid 20s to upper 30s over Colorado with
slightly increasing speeds over the Central Kansas area southward to a
40kt max in Northwestern Oklahoma. There is a vort max sitting near
Liberal along the KS/OK border at 0z Monday. Shear down to the
surface looks pretty good with 850 south of the SSE.
This all of course could mean nothing if the convective messes
overnight don't clear out in time. Heating will be an issue tomorrow
if clouds stick around and coupld quite easily kill chances in a
hurry. I'm happy with my preliminary target and may find that I don't
move much from Liberal or Dodge; in any case, I think extreme Southern
Kansas holds tomorrow's best chance. While this particular setup
doesn't leave me wanting to rely too heavily on the models with the
uncertainties of tomorrow, my judgement combined with what I'm seeing
has me happy with this... for now!
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I've narrowed a target region for Sunday's escapades somewhere along the KS/OK border starting from about Liberal and moving east. Exactly where remains to be seen as I am waiting to check the models to better narrow down my target region. I also have elected to make an early day out of Sunday as opposed to leaving Saturday night. This allows me a better opportunity to take a last look at things in the morning before I leave. Since extreme Southern Kansas seems like a good place to start, I will be able to make just about anyplace I need to be along that line within 7 hours. I'll refine the details later this afternoon...
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Friday, June 10, 2005
Spent the afternoon doing some website updates. The biggie would be the cleaning of the lightning section as well as adding galleries for 2004 and the current year, 2005. I took off the lightning video stills and will remove most of them from my site except when they're in specific logs. I'm figuring on at least doubling my 2005 count before the season ends as I've been hooked using my Canon A85 digital camera to shoot lightning. So stay tuned to the blog for updates.
Chase-wise, still aiming for Sunday. Models indicate a potential to chase southern Kansas, which greatly reduces drive-time on Sunday. Will dive into further analysis tomorrow as I am leaving campus an hour early to head down and drive pizzas. This will stuff my pockets with more chase allowance for the weekend! :o)
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An interesting chase scenario setting up for Sunday in terms of how I'm going to have to plan this trip. I wide range of targets from I-70 south to I-40 from I-25 out to I-35. Pending on where I refine my target to be, I'll be making quite the haul on very little sleep for Sunday's potential episode.
Tomorrow, my day begins at 6:45am where I'll get up and head to work on campus from 7:30a til 4p. Directly from here, I'll shoot south and drive pizzas from 5:00p til about 12:30a where I'll get off. From there, pending my target, I'll do one of the two things; head home for a quick nap and leave the apartment to head out between 3a and 5a or leave straight from work much like I did on April 10 and drive a couple hours before crashing out in the car. Targets south of the KS/OK border and/or east of US Highway 283 would require one of the above. Targets closer to home would allow me about 6 hours of sleep to chase on. The good news is that I don't have to be back again til Thursday morning, so I'll have the luxury of crashing overnight in the Plains and perhaps the chance to sleep in a bit.
Monday I'm keeping an eye on just in case as I'll obviously already be out and time would allow for a more eastern chase. Arlene would be coming into play as well and could affect chasing plans as she makes landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast. If her organization were to remain about the same, most of the rain and stuff associated with her would be east of the system, possibly wrapping around the north side. If she shifts more westward, I could see effects directly from her; otherwise she'll just come into play for later forecasts.
Yesterday was a great day for chasers as I've seen the reports on Stormtrack and have weeped silently to myself for missing what has undoubtly been the best day thus far of 2005. I'm hoping Sunday can repeat this, or at the very least, treat me to something good where I can forget about the frustrations of May. My congrats to all who bagged yesterday, including parts of our Colorado gang who represented the Rocky Mountain state yesterday in the field! Looking forward to seeing Verne Carlson's report.
Anywoo, off to do some work work before doing some chase work. I've got some serious planning to do before Sunday's venture. The ups and downs to working all day Saturday. The good part is that I get to sit in front of a computer for 8 hours starting at 7:30a, which means I can look at things all day. The bad news is that once I leave at 4p, that'll be the last real chance I get to look at anything, so unless I see something different in a quick Sunday morning peek, I'm gonna have to take a real guess! :op
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Thursday, June 09, 2005
Special thanks to the Colorado Rockies television network for the nowcasting last night as the Mile High team got spanked 15 to 5. Also thanks to the Lakewood and Arvada police officers I mingled with last night for allowing me to venture into excellent viewing pearches along 6th Ave and at the top of the Red Rocks Community College campus near the water towers. Unfortunately the lightning was few and far between early, then went to nil after dark, so I ended up empty-handed after a 90 minute stretch spent mostly at Red Rocks. I guess it was just a treat to actually have weaker storms fire unexpectedly, but their timing wasn't the best as most of the show fired off to the Northeast along I-76 towards Fort Morgan and Sterling. The upsides to this are the perches I was able to use this time which will undoubtly come in handy later on. Lakewood allowed me to park myself on the on-ramp to 6th at Union to shoot a great view of downtown to the east. This isn't exactly new as I've used this place many times to do skyline shots. The Red Rocks perch was great, and the Arvada cops came to investigate me as a suspicious person originally, but after talking to him, he quickly became interested and allowed me and my car to remain parked at the top of the dirt road near the water towers to shoot. He was curious where I had come up as my parking angle showed that I didn't use the road he came up on. I pointed out my entrance to him which was a helluva lot easier to get up on as opposed to that back road which is very steep. But again, no lightning pictures to speak of as the best bolts were well before dark or while I was enroute. Tack on another 44 miles to this year's odometer.
I'm going to voluntarily suck up the next few days in terms of working over chasing. Several factors come into play with this, but the main thing is Sunday and beyond. Pending how Tropical System Arlene plays out, Sunday could be a very good day to chase. Monday has potential as well in this. Me driving pizzas over the next few days would cash me up enough to run around for a couple days. Weekend tips are hard to pass up when they can pay your way into the Plains for a couple days. Chances remain large enough (albeit, still small) to hold onto some slim hope that a couple decent storms may roll off the mountains and hit the Southwestern parts of Denver pretty hard. Also, the potential for post-sunset lightning also keeps me hopeful that the next few days won't be total losses. In any case, I'm playing the next few days off by my own choice in hopes that Arlene doesn't shut off our moisture supply and allows for a couple good chase days for me.
As for Sunday, a small issue may arise if I have to venture beyond my 500 mile bubble to get to a target. Closing up shop Saturday night will land me at home by 1am, which if I have to drive 7 hours for a target, may require a long day chasing on as little as 3 hours of sleep. While something similar has been done before, it does make for a very long day. The differences from May 15, 2003 and this; less sleep to work off of, but I do have the benefit of not having to rush back home so I can crash out wherever I wish and sleep a bit before the next day. Also, I may have a follow-up chase Monday which may require an early start. That's too far out to plan, but with the 4 free days, I could chase very far east without much worry. The forecast is a bit far in advance, but the models prog a negative tilted trough sweeping through over this time period. Moisture should hopefully remain in place through this time and hopefully aid in good storm development. I'll dive more into the forecasting details early tomorrow morning and again in the afternoon and begin to make arrangements to chase at least on Sunday. I'll up my chasing alert tomorrow if the forecast warrents.
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Wednesday, June 08, 2005
Using the Colorado Rockies game as a nowcast, I'm hoping these popping cells can hold on for an hour or so as dark falls to squeeze out a lightning shot or two. A bolt of lightning spooked the announcer at the game and alerted me that the clear-air mode cells do have some electricity to them. Rain will be light which is nice, so hopefully as darkness falls, a few bolts can light up the sky. They actually just showed that bolt on freeze frame and it looked good. I'll be headin' out for a darker area in about 15 minutes if things continue to develop.
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RUC showing some CAPE over the foothills at the current time and its reflected in the clouds and virga coming over the hills at the moment. A couple rumbles of thunder also reflect the instability even as the radar is pretty bleak right now. Guess the thunder is just a nice sound to hear at home.
The gang is up in Sterling tonight preparing to chase Northeast Colorado tomorrow. I again will be sidelined with work and will once again be feeling grounded as everyone plays in the backyard. I'm not as angry about it this time as my free parts of the weekend may hold some potential and actually lead to a decent couple days of chasing starting Sunday. Its something to look forward to as I spend the next couple days hoping for a passing storm over the Metro area. Good luck to Amos and the crew tomorrow in Colorado. Gotta work, I'm afraid! Odd, last year at this time, I was unemployed. Strange how the tables turn this year!
Anywoo, website updates are pretty well done, so check all them out! I'm gonna relax tonight and see if maybe some of the foothill CAPE can stir up a bit of something, but not holding out for much with TDs in the 30s east of I-25. Jeffco is holding in the mid 40s, so I guess something could quickly spit something; but dry air would be nice for lightning. We shall see!
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To mention something else rather than constantly bitching, I have finished with my logs from Mayathon 2005, including a Mayathon 2005 Teaser page that will possibly have other things added to it in the future. Right now, I've included some stats and the Top 10 Pictures, other than that, it's a work in progress that may or may not have any additions. In addition to that, as I said, the rest of the logs have been posted and completed, so all the Mayathon is now uploaded and ready for your viewing pleasure.
MAYATHON 2005
May 30, 2005
May 29, 2005
May 26, 2005
May 25, 2005
May 24, 2005
May 23, 2005
May 21, 2005
May 18, 2005
May 17, 2005
May 13, 2005
May 12, 2005
May 11, 2005
May 10, 2005
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I am now convinced that Mother Nature is in tap with my work schedule cause she seems to save her best chasing weather for the three days I've dedicated to work. I woke up this morning and saw SPC had a MODERATE RISK pegged for portions of the Panhandles, NE New Mexico, SE Colorado, and West-Central Kansas. I don't think there was a last time SPC MOD'd a Day 3, which probably means very crazy day on the horizon. Unfortunately, the Friday is in the middle of my work schedule, which means I would have to take at least two of the three days off. One may be easy to get out of, two days not so much. God this sucks... its closer than South Dakota was, so I could afford that right now. Again, I get paid on Monday and again on Friday, so I can chase all over the place again after that. Tack onto that the $1000 in video cash I have coming in and I'm good to go.
Thursday holds High Plains potential, and I'm debating on taking the day for that. Friday is obviously potentially nuts, but its in the middle of my work schedule, so that rules that out completely. I'm looking at Sunday for potential, but a pending tropical system could completely kill off most chances for severe weather in the Plains. The frustrations continue...
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Tuesday, June 07, 2005
Congrats to all who scored yesterday in Nebraska and Montana. Nice tornadoes were bagged by several chasers yesterday, including some close enough to home that had I been better aware of the Nebraska situation, I would've been up there. My bad...
Today, I'm keeping an eye on the dryline in West Kansas just in case the cap does allow for development in the area. I'm gonna wait to after noon before I make a decision to head out east, but its something I'll keep in mind. Currently, I'm knocking out a majorlaundry left over from Mayathon.
Tomorrow evening looks interesting for our area. A post-sunset round of storms is possible tomorrow across Northeast Colorado which means lightning is a safe bet for tomorrow night. Maybe even an after dark HP over Denver which could lead to some fun video opps over the area. I did pick up an early shift on campus from 9a til 3p, but if the forecast holds true tomorrow, I won't be in a hurry to split from town.
Its something I'll keep in tentative plans before my three days of work puts me out of the game Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. However, Sunday holds some slight potential for chasing, which means I could be in for a decent week next week!
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Monday, June 06, 2005
Depoints in the 30s out east and lack of any real mention of severe today left me in total surprise when I saw the latest SPC MD followed quickly by a tornado watch box out for extreme Eastern Colorado into Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota. With no real expectations to chase today, I was completely unprepared to make such a scamper. It's now 3:00p, and I've just seen all of this; 2 hours at best to reach any part of those boxes; while possible, I'm not holding hope and thus am sticking close to home with a watchful eye. The dryline obviously sits right on the CO/KS border as TDs in far Eastern Colorado are barely in the 40s while upper 50s and 60s lie across the border. They drop sharply westward to the lower 30s and even upper 20s along the Front Range, except along the Front Range north of I-70 where some upper 40s amd lower to mid 50s are showing up in the 20z SFC obs map. I am gonna wait for the 21z SFC plot to see if this is a trend, cause upper 40s and mid 50s would be inviting for some potential chasing for storms off the mountains, which would be much closer to home. These types of days last year sent me hauling out to the far eastern parts of the states only to return to the I-25 corridor to chase a late evening storm that buries a small part of town in rain and hail. Days last year such as June 8 and August 10 where I chased out east in the day and came back for Front Range fun. I'll cross my fingers for that as I am too late to start chasing the border today.
As for tomorrow's setup, I'm sitting it out. I made the mistake of paying all my bills when I got home. Most a couple weeks early just to make sure I was caught up. Well, I won't see my first paycheck til early next week, thus am really strapped for cash at the moment, enough so where I'd be in trouble making a scamper to South Dakota for what would be at least 1 night. I'll keep my options open closer to home til next week where I'll have plenty of cash again to play with.
Anywoo, back to watching today unfold... if I get out, yippie! Verne took off out East and would be surprised if he scampers all the way out there with decent TDs just to the north. They have dropped a couple degrees on the 21z plot, but still mid 40s; enough for something... guess we'll see!
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Sunday, June 05, 2005
Yesterday was bang or bust for many chasers, and there were far more busts than bangs unfortunately. My pal, Amos Magliocco, seemed to echo my comments on how frustrating of a season this is becoming after turning away from a storm moments before Mike Peregrine bagged one of the few photogenic tornadoes of this dismal season. My heart goes out to the many chasers, including Amos, whom were out today and didn't end the night with the gold. A few chasers did, and to them I congratulate, but even their stories echo words of frustration, even as they may've scored yesterday. I think June 4, 2005 sums up the entire season for many chasers; chasers like me who have chased their asses off and were left sitting at home without choice over the passed few days. Chasers like Amos who have been chasing their asses off and continue to have Nature spit in their faces; chasers unlike either of us who for many other reasons are waking up today questioning the desire they have to do this to themselves. It's been a long, tough season for many and yesterday amplified that for a lot of people. I wrote my rant early in the day and later began to question whether or not I should've done that. I felt as if I was just bitching like a little brat, but after reading most of the June 4 reports in Stormtrack, I realized I just posted earlier than everyone else. This season sucks hard, and I think many chasers who were on the short end of yesterday's stick may concede defeat this season and hang it up. I'm hoping I'm wrong, but seriously, how many times can we take these blows. I know most chasers are still out in hopes of having that one day that'll give 2005 a good memory. Yesterday was suppose to be that day for many of them, and many of them fell short... I'm not sure how many more "good" setups we're gonna get to make that one day for everyone, and as its been the case this season, those good setups leave us short. I sympathize with everyone who buried their sorrows beneath the covers with them last night and hope that this morning brings a renewed hope and that you can chase on from this. But at the same time, I cannot blame anyone who elects to return home and forget about this horrible season. We've all learned lessons to carry with us, and we will put them to use in 2006. Guess we just have to crawl through the rest of 2005 first...
As for me, I'm looking ahead to the next couple of days, including a potential to chase the Dakotas for the very first time in my career... more later...
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Saturday, June 04, 2005
Oh to be out again... I'm not getting anything productive done here at work as I'm basically getting paid an hourly wage to sit here and stare at Weathertap, NWS, SPC, and Stormtrack. I'm here in the labs for another 75 minutes, which obviously appears to be more than enough time to watch storms fire. Already severe storms northeast of Manhattan, Kansas and a tornado warned cell south of Salina. Storms are firing there way down to the south and a recently issued PDS Tornado Watch in Oklahoma is backing that idea that today will be a widespread severe day. My virtual target for initiation was near Perry, OK on I-35, so we'll see how that verifies later today. Be safe all!
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Chasers from all over the country are converging over an area encircled with a red line penciled in by an SPC forecaster at 6:08 CDT this morning. The first real HIGH RISK of the season has been issued for a large part of the Plains, including Eastern Kansas, Western Missouri, Southeast Nebraska, and Southwest Iowa. Was rather surprised at this being as yesterday's Day 2 didn't even have a MODERATE out for the area. My surprise wasn't quite as bad as the Day 2 DID have a hatched area for today. Was just amazed to see this evolve so quickly.
I, obviously, am screwed for the third day in a row. A season of frustrations continues to amplify for me as for the third day in a row of good weather, am confined to earning a paycheck. Thursday's big day in Colorado; yesterday's mess in Southeast Denver; and the final nail in the coffin, today's potential HIGH RISK out east. I'm bummed... this really sucks. I'm not sure how much harder I can get slapped with all of this. Three days.. the ONLY three days I've had to be at work in the last MONTH and they're the best days of the season. I've said it a few times in the past couple days, and I'll say it again... I'd rather cap bust bad setups as opposed to not being able to go out on great setups. This hurts. I've been a frustrated chaser the passed couple days... today just iced it. Yeah, I have the next 4 days off after today... not much good it's gonna do I'm afraid... 2005 is quickly falling into the crapper as it seems Nature locked into my work schedule. And I know, I know.. there are dozens of others in the same boat, and I'm sure they're quietly (or not so) bitching to themselves about missing today... I guess I feel extremely shafted cause the last two days have been backyard events I couldn't make. Today, I feel like everyone else stuck with other obligations, except that I have two backyard days compounding my frustrations. This sucks... easily the hardest and worst part of chasing is this... not being able to go out.
I wish the best of luck and safety to all those out today. I know many who can't chase today who live in the above mentioned area, so even those people will find themselves eyeing the skies. Today's one of those days where chasers earn their reputations for the community. Remember, you're first mission today is the safety and protection of the people and yourselves. Major metropolitan areas potentially lie in the paths of storms today, storms that could drop devestating tornadoes. The citizens of those areas rely on your eyes to make sure they're safe from harm. And when they're not, they rely on your eyes to let them know its coming. Fortunately the Saturday timing dramatically decreases the rush hour scenario, but at the same time, likely means many people will be out at malls, parks, etc. Those people may have little warning today if something develops. Please be on your toes for your sake and the sake of others. There are many reckless and careless chasers who will also be joining the ranks of the responsible and safety minded this afternoon, and today's that type of day where that fooling around will get someone killed. Please, be safe, be responsible, and be alert. I bid God's speed to everyone today, not just the chasers, but the residents of the towns and cities which potentially lie in the paths today. A chaser always wishes for days like this, and hopefully, it'll happen over unpopulated areas where the human impact is kept to an absolute minimum. And a last note to chasers, don't venture where your guardian angels won't... good luck and happy hunting...
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Friday, June 03, 2005
I have posted several of the logs from Mayathon 2005. You can check them out by going to the logs section. I still have a few to do and the delay is mostly cause of the image processing I need to do for those. I may have a couple more done before the end of today, so check back.
The weather may make headlines again today, and of course, I'm working. Here comes to most frusterating part of storm chasing. Some people think the cap busts are the worst, but I disagree. Hey, at least I could get out. This, for me, sucks more than anything else in chasing; not being able to chase. Yesterday yanked at me, today may do the same. While probs aren't as high as yesterday, you know something good will happen. SPC's upped the tornado probs for Eastern Colorado to 5%, but only pushes them as far west as about Byers; nothing tornatic for the Front Range. Hail may grace us today here in the Front Range, though. I'm hoping for a similar situation for me driving pizzas as yesterday, only a bit bigger perhaps. A storm rolls off the foothills with heavy rain and hail. Dewpoints overall are lower than yesterday, but closer to the foothills, they're a bit higher. The Palmer Divide barely has 40s right now, so I would imagine that even with a 5%, tornado probs are gonna be pretty low.
Here's SPC's text from the 1630z Day 1...
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005
...ERN CO/WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON...
NAM/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT DEEP EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS MAY SLOW STRONGER HEATING SOME UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...FORCING AHEAD OF UTAH TROUGH AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT STORM INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES.
I imagine Denver's HWO will change to reflect this new SPC analysis, so perhaps a mention of severe near the Front Range will be warrented. I guess I would settle for a good hailstorm and some good shootable lightning. Perhaps a storm such as this or this will roll through! That'll make me very happy!
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I was able to squander mid-afternoon coverage on campus, so I was able to get out. However, since I couldn't get out of my evening work, I ended up reduced to a couple hours of local spotting out near DIA early in the day before the main action went off. The severe-warned storm I pranced around led me from Lakewood up I-76 into Hudson where I dropped south towards DIA on a county road. I jogged east on a hairy dirt road to connect with another paved road heading south where I jumped back on I-70 and headed west into town.
My reports; penny-sized hail, crazy rains, and a few CGs. A Flash Flood warning was issued for the storm as it backbuilt for a while over the southern parts of DIA. It did lead to some minor flooding of Pena Blvd, but the warning was soon canceled when the rain ended over the area and water levels dropped.
Later in the evening after my work shift, we had a 90 second blast of heavy rains and pea-sized hail which literally came from nowhere.
A frusterating day as I was hearing the warnings and talking to various chasers in the field. I watched the towers from Littleton and cursed the real world for making me have to work. Glad to hear others scored well in my absense as I felt like a grounded child watching his friends play in the backyard while he sat in his room watching through the window.
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Thursday, June 02, 2005
Updated NWS and SPC text products...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1102 AM MDT THU JUN 02 2005
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY TODAY...THE QUESTION IS WHERE. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S IN THE DENVER METRO AREA...REDUCING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. FURTHER EAST...FROM SYDNEY TO BRUSH TO LIMON...WE EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO LINGER IN THE THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOIST AIR WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO... AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...TO GIVE THIS AREA A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE UNSTABLE... WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO PRODUCE SOME SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES AND GOLFBALL TO BASEBALL HAIL.
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...BUT THE WINDS AT MONUMENT WERE INCREASING FROM THE EAST...SO DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE...AND THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
IT WILL ALSO BE A STORMY DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A JET STREAM WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005
VALID 021639Z - 030045Z
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA.
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AS A DRYLINE STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS GULF MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. STRONG WINDS HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH TURNING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WESTERN KANSAS...AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TOWARD EVENING. EVENTUALLY STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO A LARGE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
Still trying to pull strings... believe it or not, I'm halfway there! Stay tuned.
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First of all, best of luck to all who are chasing Colorado's Eastern Plains and other targets throughout the Plains this afternoon. Today looks incredible and one of the better setups I've seen for Eastern Colorado in a long time. Be safe and happy hunting.
Second of all, I'm probably the single most frusterated chaser anywhere in the world right now. I just returned from 3 weeks to kick off my first days of work over the summer today... and obviously, Nature has bitch slapped my ass so hard with today's setup being so close. Most of the talk for the week was for Friday, and it was far enough away where I was able to shrug it off. This morning, I got up to find a 15% over Northeastern Colorado and talks of an 18z sounding. When I got to campus, I saw a larger 15% with a hatched area over parts of Eastern Colorado. This hurts... I'm at work and have very few strings to pull to get out of it. There's a large part of me willing to lose BOTH of my jobs for today's setup, but I have to keep reminding myself there will be other setups... but for some strange reason, that's not helping me much...
The frustrations of a day like today are pretty apparent... but what makes this even worse (or the many reasons this is worse) is that its so close. I would be willing to bet both my jobs that there will be tornadoes that as the crow flies will be less than 30 miles from where I am now. I also cannot remember the last time SPC hatched a 15% tornado area for Eastern Colorado, nor can I recall the last time NWS-Denver launched an 18z sounding. This hurts bad... and it doesn't look good for me getting out.
I do have a couple things which do work in my favor... first of all, the closeness to home allows me extra time to work some magic for getting out of work. Second of all, my campus job does have some flexibility to leave. Third, I was penciled in at my other job, which hopefully I can con myself out of. If those three things work together, I can make a late rush to get out to the Plains.
As for the planned updates I was gonna do, I probably won't get to them today as I'm not in the best of moods to update anything. I'm gonna be too busy keeping an eye on today in hopes that I can pull some kind of miracle to get out. Hopefully my bosses know how passionate I am and will give me the benefit of the doubt, but after coming off a three week vacation, I feel my "benefits" are running pretty low. Guess we'll see...
Anywoo, below are a few of the text products from today...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
549 AM MDT THU JUN 02 2005
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO FROM DENVER NORTHWARD TO THE WYOMING BORDER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND STRETCHING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS EASTERN ADAMS...ARAPAHOE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.
LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 2 PM AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AT ALL LEVELS FROM YESTERDAY AS A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT USHERED IN A MOIST AND COOLER AIRMASS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
300 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2005
.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS NRN PTNS OF CWA WITH CONTINUOUS STREAM OF SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL STRETCHING UPSTREAM THROUGH WRN UTAH. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK ACROSS WY AND THE DAKOTAS. SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED FOR NOW...BUT MAJOR CONCERNS ARE FOR THIS AFTN/EVENING FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX OUTBREAK OVER THE PLAINS. SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS DRAGGED SOUTHWARD THRU MUCH OF CWA WITH SFC LOW ACROSS SERN CO. LOW LVL MSTR HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY FROM YESTERDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF FAR ERN CO. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD BY AFTN AND DRAPPED ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. THERE IS ANOTHER JET STREAK ACROSS NRN CA WHICH WILL MOVE INTO SIMILAR POSITION TODAY ACROSS WY WHICH WILL AGAIN PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ASCENT ACROSS NRN CWA. FROM LOCATIONS NORTH OF DENVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS A BIT LOWER AS PERSISTENT CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL SFC HEATING. THE BEST HEATING WILL BE JUST EAST/SOUTH OF DENVER AND ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE THRU WASHINGTON COUNTY. SURFACE BASED CAPES FROM NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE UPWARDS OF 3000J/KG GIVEN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. FURTHER NORTH AND AROUND THE DENVER AREA...CAPES ARE BETWEEN 1000-1500J/KG WITH LESS SFC HEATING EXPECTED. WIND SHEAR PROFILE ALSO CONDUCIVE TO SUPER CELL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN WITH MID LVL FLOW 40-45KT AND DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR LEADING TO HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN150-200M2/S2. SPC HAS TARGETED MUCH OF FAR ERN CO FOR A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WITH SLIGHT RISK FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. THIS ALL SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ABOVE PARAMETERS. WILL BUMP POPS UP FURTHER AND MENTION SEVERE IN MOST ZONES OF EASTERN CO. LARGE HAIL AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH THE WELL SHEARED ENVIORNMENT WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
THERE IS AN SPC REQUEST FOR SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING TODAY. UPR AIR WILL BE CONTACTED THIS AM FOR EXTRA LAUNCH.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2005
...ERN CO/WRN KS/SWRN NEB/NWRN OK...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE DRYLINE WILL BECOME WELL-DEFINED BY AFTERNOON FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KS...CURVING WESTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL CO. AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE WARM/MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. RATHER STRONG CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHEAST CO BY AROUND 21Z. THIS WILL BE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE VERY LARGE HAIL GROWTH...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO SOUTHWEST KS...AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NEB. GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD ENHANCE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS STORMS AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN KS AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OK.
Here's hoping God loves me! :o)
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