Tuesday, May 31, 2005
It certainly wasn't an eventless day yesterday; before, during, or after yesterday's chase. All the details can be found on the May 30 log I posted earlier this afternoon. Needless to say, my Mayathon ended on a good note!
Today, I've slept, unpacked a bit, and basically am unwinding after my 3 week 8800 mile road trip which covered only 6 states. Weather-wise, it left a bit to be desired, but to say I had the time of my life wouldn't even begin to describe how awesome the past 21 days have been. So many people, both chasers and others, made this trip one of the most memorable times of my life. In a year where the weather didn't spoil us, everything else did. I'm beyond thrilled about this venture and greatly await the next time I can spend three weeks on the road.
Today could've been a chase day and likely would've been had I not closed up yesterday so close to home. The temptation to get home last night was too much as I was pretty road-weary and missed home. Had I been outside of the state closer to the Panhandles, I likely would've stayed out to chase, but its hard to turn away heading home when you're within 3 hours. I obviously am missing out today, but I have no regrets. I did well and had a blast and chased damn near every major chasable day since April, so I have no complaints. This weekend's potential could suck though cause I work and have no choice, so that'll be hard to swallow.
Financial-wise, I'm better than fine. I had a $1500 bank to play with and have $100 of that left. Add that to the $600 in video sales I pulled, I actually sort of come out ahead as most of the bank came from April 10's tornadoes. There will be no getting out of debt this season and I can actually spend a few bucks to upgrade some equipment; including tripods! *LOL*
Anywoo, the remaining logs will start going up starting Thursday when I return to work on campus. I just knocked up yesterday's log because I typed enough of it out on Stormtrack where it would only take a few mintues to process images. The rest will be hopefully by the end of the weekend.
A couple quick stats from Mayathon 2005; I chased or traveled 19 days between May 10 and May 30; logged 8,811 miles and averaged over 460 miles per day; had 13 chase days (6 travel days) and 4 tornado days; busted for real only once; chased 6 states including a couple New Mexico days for the first time in my chase career. The trip cost me close to $1500 total between gas, food, lodging, and equipment with an average cost per mile of $0.15.
I'll have more details, stats, and such upcoming in the near future as I complete my Mayathon 2005 overview for my site. What an incredible three weeks!
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Monday, May 30, 2005
Didn't get a chance to update last night as we stayed in the Raton Oasis Motel which was cheap, but didn't have internet. Fun day yesterday mainly shooting up and down the highways in Northeast New Mexico. Had a dirt road turn to hell with divits, mud puddles, cows sleeping in the road, and dogs hearding our vehicles. Not much weather-wise to speak of, but a fun day none-the-less.
Today, sitting in Trinidad, Colorado where we're awaiting the kick-off of today's promising day. SPC currently has an MD out for our area and then back to the west, so things should get started here shortly. I won't be long here as I'm gonna head back and meet with the gang and fill them in on what I've got.
So yeah, chasing Southeast Colorado today and it looks like they'll be a good chance I'll retire to Denver, maybe chasing Front Range action tomorrow and Wednesday before returning to work on Thursday. Its hard to justify driving all the way down to Lubbock, Texas when I'm so close today. Unless something significant happens to change my mind, I'll play close to home the next couple of days.
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Sunday, May 29, 2005
Quickie this morning as I'm about to start packing up and getting ready to hit the road today. We're gonna head west out of Enid to play a marginal target today, kind of preparing more for the next two days rather than today. Tomorrow looks pretty good; Tuesday looks sweet, sweet enough to keep me out through then. I may update again from the road if we stop for data, but if not, I'll update tonight when we base out! We have created a new term; The Dewpoint Dounut; a hole in the dewpoints that the models forecast where the dewpoints literally just disappear! *LOL*
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Saturday, May 28, 2005
I feel like a prune... just emerged from a quiet hottub stay after the 10:30p close kicked out the rif-raff. The clerk out front let me enjoy the quiet post-close time in the hottub as I took some very well earned relaxation. I finally pulled myself from the hot water to return to my room for the night. I turned down the invite from Jay and the gang to hang with them at a country-western bar north of town as I got too relaxed to pull myself from the hotel. Probably missed boatloads of fun, but I guess I was more content to relax tonight. I'm actually well awake at the moment; perhaps its the umpteen hours of sleep I got last night, I think it's the fact I'm surrounded by Oklahoma air.
I miss it here... one may not think 6 months out of 24 years can change a person, but it did. Oklahoma filled that mix of my current life and Ohio. Something in the nighttime air brings me back home; even as Ohio was my home in the early stages of my life, Oklahoma feel like the home I will have soon. Its been a while since I've spent any real time here, and tonight, prior to my hottub blanketing, I sat outside the hotel breathing in the air, enjoying the humidity, feeling the temperature, and just reminicing... I miss that feeling. I hope I can bring my girl to a place that has this feel... its something I haven't had much of since I left Ohio...
I'm not sure what I'm gonna do over the next couple hours... I may return to my perch outside; I may pop in a movie on the DVD player I smuggled from home; not really sure. I'm very relaxed right now, content, and far from sleep. I slept well last night and I slept long. I set a wake-up call for the morning at 8am just in case a morning hurry sends us into the field. I hunch tomorrow will be close to here; SPC's Day 1 comes out in 90 minutes; whether I actually manage to sleep by then or not will be a big question, but right now, I'll likely be up.
I don't feel like posting logs (which I probably should) or cropping pictures... next week I return to work in the computer labs where I'll have more than enough time to complete all my online work. I thought it would have been easier to put stuff online quickly after my chases, but that was as far from true as it gets. I think had I had more to put up, I would've been quicker about it, but most people running through here want the tornadoes and lightning, not just pretty storms and funny stories. Those typically can wait... I do find myself posting pictures on the blog quickly, especially good shots like the lightning, but other than that, its hard to sit down and take the time to compose the log in detail. I will get around to it next week.
Hmm... really out of things to bore you all with, so I guess I will go back to figuring out how to kill my time for the next couple hours. TV is a bit lacking although ESPN's Top 10 wasn't too bad. I'm tired of listening to Dave Schwartz my-friend us to death, although I think he doesn't do weekends. In any case, I'm going to move on to something else and waste away the evening. Goodnight... again! *LOL*
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Wakita was fun! A quiet gathering that maxed out at about 40 chasers including Shane Adams, Bill Hark, Amos Magliocco, Jay McCoy, Kanani Foster, Dan Robinson, Tim Marshall, and many many others. We just hung out in downtown Wakita for a few hours chewing the fat, dancin' in the streets, and checking out the 'Twister' goodies. We had a good time hanging around eating great BBQ and chattin' the locals. The community of Wakita was very pleasent and were a great group of folks. They made all of us feel very welcome and were very nice to us all. I would definately recommend anyone passing nearby to stop and check the place out. Its definately worth the visit. I took a picture of my car with the Wakita water tower in the background (the same one in 'Twister'); check it out below.
Right now, we're gonna spend a relaxing evening here at the hotel; waiting for the preschoolers to evac the pool area so I can relax in the hottub and pool for a bit before retiring for the night. Earlier this evening after we left Wakita, several of us went to Applebee's for dinner and yapping before splitting up for the night. Nice relaxing day in Oklahoma as tomorrow may begin the final stretch for the 2005 Mayathon.
Right now, I'm enjoying yet another Jean Claude Van Damme movie; the TV networks must've known I'd be living out of hotels cause they've treated me to several Van Damme movies this passed week. 'Hard Target' the other night and 'Kickboxer' tonight! I can't complain! *LOL* I'm such a nerd!
Anywoo, that's it for tonight really... may chase tomorrow if the weather warrents; probably more likely Monday and Tuesday as Wednesday I have to head home to begin my summer work schedule. Very happy to be working only the 3 days a week which allows me 4 in a row to chase. Will probably test that out in the first week! :o)
Goodnight all!
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Friday, May 27, 2005
Dave Schwartz wants a cheesesteak with the works! You da man, dude! *LOL*
Anywoo, made it to Enid today! The map makes that 500 mile trip from Taos look a lot shorter than it really is! *LOL* Actually, it only took about 8.5 hours to make the trip, including a little diversion to get a Texas state sign picture since I had the time and wasn't chasing anything. I filled up in Clayton, NM and made it to Enid on one tank, so it was a cheap day! I haven't eaten yet, but will soon! Amos is on his way and may already be here. We're gonna head for Applebee's for food and a drink as we have a relaxing couple days before potential chase days roll in early next week. Later in the week, the real world returns for me as I start working again on Thursday. Damn, this went fast! :o(
I'm sure this is pronounced differently (as most funny-named cities are), but it was too good to pass up!
And a quick note to my girlfriend whom has endured my absense these passed few weeks (or livin it up *wink*), a special thanks. I yapped with her for a bit on the road somewhere between here and there; I miss her more than I may lead her to believe! She's been great and supportive of my "gambling habit" (chasing) and really makes me feel lucky. Most chasers would agree that we're hard to be with cause of our hobby taking us away all the time. Dania has been great with this and I thank her for that! :o) By the way, babe, here are the facial hair pictures I promised you; took them right after we got off the phone! *LOL* You'll have to click to see the bigger version, aight! *SMOOCHZ*
 
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I just got off the phone with Jon; he's gonna stay behind here in New Mexico to shoot the flooding of the Red River, so I'll be flying solo for the remainder of my trip. I'm gonna finish packing here, check out, then head out. It'll be all US Highways for this trip as I'll be shooting into the Texas Panhandle, then northeastward into Oklahoma straight into Enid. Looking forward to the picnic! I'm not sure when I'll arrive tonight, but its (according to Mapquest) about 500 miles from here to Enid, so on US Highways, could be 8 or 9 hours trip. Crank up the music and enjoy the Plains on my way back to Oklahoma! I believe this is the first time I'll venture into the state this season! Sheesh! *LOL*
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About to jump in a shower and pack up the car for today's trek from North-Central New Mexico all the way to North-Central Oklahoma where I have a room at the Best Western in Enid booked for tomorrow's picnic in Wakita.
Yesterday, we spent several hours in the mountains in the New Mexico village of Questa shooting pics and video of the high Red River. The crews and land owners in Questa were beyond nice; allowing us free reign of the area to shoot. They even took time to point us to various shooting spots and talk to us about things. They were really great for all they allowed us to do; even one of the crew workers stopped his truck, jumped out, and shook the hands of a couple of "real storm chasers" when he saw my car pulled off next to the river. It was quite a pleasent experience admist everything going on. The river was a sight to behold, and the video I took ran over 45 minutes and was great. A digger was knocking down trees to make way for a new channel, so I had a blast shooting that! Also shot video of another site where they were dumping huge rocks along the banks to try and save one of the neighborhood roads. Its a shame the national networks are mooching free vid from the local TV station cause my video was really good.
Today, as I mentioned, is a travel day from Taos to Enid. Jon is considering sticking around Taos to shoot more of the river as its expected to peak on Saturday. If he chooses to do that, I'll likely wrap up the final few days of the trip by myself. Chasable weather looks promising starting tomorrow and going through the first part of next week, which means I could possibly chase straight up til I return to work on Thursday the 2nd. Not 100% sure of anything, but I'll be in the company of several hundred chasers this weekend, so I'm sure I'll have a chance to discuss the possibilities with others.
Anywoo, I'm gonna jump in a shower and get packed up and ready to roll. Jon is suppose to call and likely will while I'm showering, but he and his girlfriend will meet me here where we'll discuss plans and then head out. Ciao!
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Thursday, May 26, 2005
I'm currently in Taos, New Mexico where Jon and I are planning on spending the afternoon and evening shooting river flooding along the Red River about 30 miles north of Taos. Jon's girlfriend and their dog drove down from Boulder to meet with us here in Taos, so they're staying on the north side of town in a dog-friendly hotel and I checked into the Comfort Suites on the south side; and for $65 a night, I think I got a crazy deal! My room looks like a freakin' Adobe house; has two TVs, fridge, microwave, a KING size and queen sized bed, pull out sofa, the works! Absolutely gorgeous stay I'll have here tonight!
As for the weather, SPC currently has an MD out over the New Mexico mountains, so while storm chasing isn't likely cause we're in the mountains, we could get a couple hailers and probably some pretty heavy rains, so our flooding shoot may be more than we bargined for if we're not careful. We'll be heading up north here shortly.
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Wednesday, May 25, 2005
What a great day in New Mexico! This was actually my first ever chase in New Mexico and boy was I welcomed with open arms! We began our day casually from Lamar as we were originally going to visit the volcano, but towers developing to our south and west and we took off after them. We were watching the southern most storm when we got treated to the storm to the north...
A nuclear explosion; towers went up so fast it looked as if the military was testing nuclear weapons. This thing went up monsterously fast; almost like live time-laspe. Chris Collura shot a complete time lapse of it which will likely be the time lapse of the year!
We stayed with this storm as it tried to get organized; damn nearly pulled a wall cloud but outflow cut it off. We danced with it for a bit as other chasers began to flood the area (YES, WE WERE THEIR FIRST); the storm tried a couple times to reorganize, but to no avail. We fired south and east where Jon and I split from the gang and headed west along I-40 hoping to intercept some sunset lightning. Jon was able to get a couple shots before rain overtook us. We then headed to Las Vegas!
And to top off the night, we ended up knocking a Comfort Inn for dirt cheap; getting the LAST room in the hotel... we ate at the local Wendy's which was EASILY the BEST cheeseburger I've ever eaten at a Wendy's.
A great day to share with Jeff Gammons, Chris Collura, Kersten McClung, Scott Blair, and Scott Eubanks! Definately made up for yesterday's frustrations with what could easily be called the most incredible tower growth ever seen! That thing went up like a bomb! Incredible shots to be had which I'll post online shortly!
Tomorrow's plans are to head up to NM Highway 38 between Questa and Red River to shoot some of the river flooding going on up there due to the snowmelt. Fortunately, there is a chance for storms nearby, so chasing isn't totally out of the question. Maybe a repeat of today's nuclear explosion, but that'll be hard to top!
After tomorrow, we get ready for the Stormtrack Picnic; I reserved the Enid Best Western this morning and found out later in the day that Amos also got the Best Western; so we'll probably party pretty hard through the day. I'm looking very forward to relaxing and partying with chasers as we console each other in what has been a pretty weak season!
Anywoo, I'm a bit weary and get to sleep long tonight! We got the Comfort Inn for a good deal and don't have to be up terribly early tomorrow, so off to sleep I go! Goodnight from Vegas.. the OTHER Vegas!
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Tuesday, May 24, 2005
I see SPC has flashed some yellow today over the extreme eastern parts of Colorado and most of Western Kansas. I think they're more concerned with the MCS expected to develop tonight and push into Kansas. Hail and wind both have hatched areas over the MOD RISK, so I guess its no surprise to see it. I, personally, won't let it go to my head as tornado chances remain 5% across our target area and a MOD RISK won't change what happens.
Jon should be arriving shortly and we'll be heading out to Limon. I talked to Verne a few minutes ago and we're gonna hook up in Limon before 2pm. My hesitation of going to far east is countered with how well we can get around from Limon. I don't mind chasing hailers off the Front Range, so if something does start to bubble without putting us horribly out of position, it may be worth a jog back to the west to go get it.
I went to Wal-Mart to restock on tapes and batteries after depositing another check. I should be set to go for the next week. Hard to believe 2 of my 3 weeks are gone and I am left with only a week to go. As I feared, it flew by quickly; but I've enjoyed every moment I've experienced so far this Mayathon. Its a great thing to not have to restrict yourself in terms of chasing due to work and or school. This has been great! Hope the final week goes down with a bang! Still a lot of time to go!
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*YAWN* I gotta learn to sleep in! Quick night's sleep last night leads me to today where a repeat setup is in the works for Eastern Colorado. Most chasers who chased yesterday won't have to go far today as things will pretty well kick off in about the same places today. I'm more excited for today's setup; better shear, better winds, better most things. Upslope will be continuing today with dews in the lower 50s. Models prog over 2500J/kg CAPE over Eastern Colorado with a 3400+ value over Northeast Colorado. Today's target gets tricky as it appears there are several places storms cound initiate. With no real mention of a DCVZ setting up today, it oughta be a frontal/dryline play. Moisture looks a bit better today as well... here are a few of the 8am readings nearby..
Limon: 61/52
DIA: 64/51
Jeffco: 66/43
Centennial: 65/46
Akron: 66/52
Greeley: 64/48
Ft. Collins: 64/46
Colo. Springs: 63/47
La Junta: 64/55
Burlington: 62/56
So basically, mid 50s on the Plains and mid to upper 40s along the Front Range. Visible satellite shows pretty much clear skies across the region with a few showers and storms over I-76 north and east of Ft. Morgan, so temps will be very quick to warm today. Winds intially aren't looking to favorable over most of the area, however as the day progresses, winds are expected to shift a bit towards the southern part of the area and allow for better shear for supercells and tornatic storms. This will be a tricky play to chasers not fully prepared as storms will fire first and look pretty crappy (i.e. linear), but as the day progresses, storms will isolate and become right movers with the shifting winds and allow for better chances for supercell storms. To timeline this, expect storms to initially fire along boundries and terrain between noon and 2pm; supercells will become a better possiblity after 4pm over areas south of I-76, probably better off saying south of I-70. Storms, as I said, will initially fire off the higher terrain of the Foothills and Palmer Divide areas earlier in the afternoon. For chasers based out of Denver, a target between Byers and Limon would be a good start. Tracking the storms off the higher terrain will lead you into the Plains where the early evening show will be the one to catch! Chasers who felt jipped yesterday oughta get some redemption today; just be patient and not throw yourself completely out of position if storms early on look a bit benign. The better winds will be coming later in the day.
Here are the segments from Denver's AFD from this morning as well as their early HWO..
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
330 AM MDT TUE MAY 23 2005
.SHORT TERM...A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT HARD TO TELL JUST HOW THE MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL PLAY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE FRONT IS POORLY DEFINED AT PRESENT... A SHALLOW BOUNDARY DROPPED AS FAR SOUTH AS DENVER BUT THIS IS WASHING OUT. RIBBON OF LIFT IS EASY TO FIND WITH THE CLOUD AND SHOWER BAND FROM CENTRAL UTAH ALONG THE NORTHERN COLORADO BORDER. THIS LOOKS TO BE LIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTH AND THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SEEM TO BE RESPONDING TO FOCUS CONVERGENCE UNDER THIS BAND. IF THIS CONTINUES AS I EXPECT IT WILL...THIS WILL BRING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO MOST OF THE DAY...KEEPING A MOIST AIRMASS AND ALLOWING THE SUN TO HEAT IT. TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS GIVES CAPES IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. SHEAR INCREASES A BIT WITH TIME...PLENTY FOR TILTING STORMS BUT MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS AT FIRST. SHEAR IS ALSO PRETTY LINEAR TO BEGIN WITH...THOUGH HELICITY INCREASES WITH SOUTH WINDS TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR AREA BY EVENING AND ANY STORMS THAT START TO TRACK RIGHT SHOULD GENERATE SUPERCELL DYNAMICS. SO THERE APPEARS TO BE A SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...WITH A BETTER THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES LATER ON. AS FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT...FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO BE TO OUR NORTH AT FIRST...MODELS WANT TO GENERATE AN AREA OF EAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH COMPLICATES THINGS. IF WE HAVE ONE WELL DEFINED FRONT THE FOCUS WILL BE OBVIOUS...SHIFTING FROM THE CHEYENNE RIDGE TOWARD THE SE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF THE MODEL WINDS ARE RIGHT...THE STORMS COULD START ABOUT ANYWHERE THOUGH TERRAIN WILL BE MORE LIKELY. SIGNIFICANT WARMING REQUIRED SO PROBABLY NOT MUCH UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...BUT SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENT NOW AROUND VERNAL UTAH APPEARS TIMED FOR MID AFTERNOON SO THAT POINTS TO MORE OF AN AFTERNOON EVENT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
604 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2005
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND MODERATE WIND SHEAR WILL PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A WIND SHIFT LINE FROM LOVELAND TO BURLINGTON IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE WYOMING BORDER DURING THE MORNING...AND THIS MAY BE THE INITIAL FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE FOOTHILLS AND IN THE MONUMENT HILL AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. WHILE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS GREATEST EAST OF GREELEY AND THE DENVER AREA... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS WELL.
Today definately looks more favorable than yesterday did, so hopefully that will pan out well for chasers still around. I will go out on a limb and say there will be tornado reports here in Colorado this evening.
Jon will be here at 11a, and we should be on the road shortly thereafter. Verne is meeting the crew in Brighton and will catch up with Jon and I on the road.
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Quickie post before bed; just wrapped up another 550 mile day in Colorado today! Verne, Katie, Allen, Jon, and myself intercepted the Palmer Divide storms south of Limon; we danced around with those a bit near Kit Carson after briefly meeting Gammons and crew. We elected to repunch the storm from the south and stopped in Kit Carson to talk to Tim Samaras for a bit before shooting north into Burlington. We intercepted the storms north of Burlington and got blasted with 60+ mph winds, some small hail, and some pretty freakin' heavy rain. We returned to Burlington and filmed around town before Verne and crew split back for Denver while Jon and I dropped just south of town to film lightning for a bit before making our way back home. I ran into several people out there today, and my apologies for the quick intros. You guys really need to find me when things aren't going on cause it seems like everytime I meet someone from here, I'm in a hurry! I feel like such an ass! *LOL* Believe me, its nothing personal, but Nature doesn't seem to hold up for intros!
Tomorrow looks to be a repeat target of today. Jon V will meet me at my place at 11am and we're gonna head out from there. Tomorrow marks the last time we'll leave Denver at least through Sunday as chasing will have us out through Friday and the Twister Reunion party which is in Oklahoma on Saturday, so after tonight, I'll be living in hotels for at least the next five days.
In the meantime, watch for my vids on TWC in the morning... shot some hail in Cheyenne Wells and some street ponding in Burlington; I think I got Verne's truck on air this time! *LOL* Goodnight!
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Monday, May 23, 2005
Denver's HWO finally jumped on board...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD TO THE EAST OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO FORMATION. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN BORDER.
I'll be leaving my house in about 45 minutes to pick up Jon V in Brighton, but am seriously considering sticking close to the Front Range instead of shooting back east as I foresee having to fly back west to catch storms and follow them out. Sheesh! *LOL*
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Excited about today! Good storms oughta shape up quite nicely... tomorrow looks very good, too! Here's my analysis for today sent out via email and posted on Stormtrack!
Hey gang! Good morning! Ready for a fun day in Colorado today! Looks like it'll be a doozy! Here's my morning analysis brought to you in part by the Mellow Yellow I smuggled out of Central Nebraska last week!
RUC ANALYSIS
Upslope, good CAPE, decent SRH; sturdy cap, but breakable. RUC shows very good parameters setting up across Eastern Colorado. CAPE values shows awesome amounts for our altitude with values over 2000 over most of Eastern Colorado by 0z. Worth noting that at 21z, there's a value progged at 3581 just to the southwest of Burlington! How's that for crazy! Higher values shift eastward from 21z to 0z, but more than enough for storms back west to fire and then move into higher values. Helicity values dot various areas along the foothills. Its strange, but they look as if they're centered near Ft. Collins, Denver, Colorado Springs, and Pueblo; not sure why those bullseyes are arranged that way, but they are according to the RUC. Values in these bullseyes range from 200 to 500 at 21z and down to 150 to 350 at 0z. A capping issue may create some problems at some point, however the RUC shows no cap at 21z over the Front Range and by 0z, shifts it to points east. 700mb temps are a bit higher than I'd like to see with values in the low teens across all of Eastern Colorado, but high temps today combined with the moisture we're suppose to see should be enough to overcome the cap. We couldn't ask for better moisture up here with values in the 50s and 60s! Thetea-E values look reasonable, and decrease through 700mb, so that's looking good, too. The RUC breaks out precip west of I-25 at 21z then fills an east/west band from Denver to about Yuma between the interstates.
15z SFC analysis shows low 60s dewpoints in Southeastern Colorado and mid to upper 50s east of Denver! Wow (for us)! Southeasterly winds will stream moisture in throughout the day today and keep us in an upslope pattern. We should do well today.
A target for today, I would says south of Akron wouldn't be bad, however you're in a data hole with no real chance for Wifi access. However, there is a library in Akron if you wanna old school it. Its at 302 Main Ave and should be open through the early evening hours.
Today looks like it'll play out further east with tomorrow likely being the better of the two days for Eastern Colorado. I'd be content with both setups, to be perfectly honest, and there's nothing that would keep me sitting at home for today's. I'm a bit concerned as NWS Denver has really played this setup down, not making mention in AFDs or HWOs even as SPC has thrown all sorts of odds over Eastern Colorado. I'm not sure why there is discrepency in this, but I guess they're making it so we have to make our own decisions! However, I am pretty confident that the best shows will happen east of a Buckingham/Roggen/Byers line, probably closer to I-76 as opposed to I-70 with better dynamics further north and the chance that storms will last well after dark up there.
Jon V and I should be on the road by noon up along I-76, likely stopping in Fort Morgan for data and maybe a southward adjustment in either direction from there.
Good luck to all out there today and I hope we see you all out there!
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Sunday, May 22, 2005
At home again after yesterday's cap bust in Eastern Nebraska. The bust chase fell well short of my longest bust of 1,800 plus miles, but still ran over 1,000 (1188 total). My Mayathon surpassed 5,500 miles with this trip; expecting to close in on 7,500 by the end of the week. With chasing lined up over the next 3 days at least, I would imagine mileage racking up quickly in smaller chunks as targets get closer to home.
Today was a quick trip; CU towers went up along the foothills, but quickly were buried beneath the cap over the Plains. We met with Verne Carlson in Brighton for dinner and discussion over today's chances and tomorrow's setup. We then separated, Verne heading east to check towers which eventually lead to severe warnings in Fort Morgan; I retired home to my girlfriend and the pool for the evening. Jeff and crew played with some convection near Cheyenne, Wyoming; nothing which amounted to much, I think. I haven't gotten in touch with them since one of our phones died, but I imagine they set up camp someplace close by. Jon and I will get in touch with them tomorrow as we finalize our targets.
As for tomorrow, I told Jon to call me in the morning when he was up and around. I figure to be on the road around noonish, heading east on I-70 for someplace near Watkins/Byers. The DCVZ should set up tomorrow, kicking off storms and then we ride them out east throughout the day. I am going to glance over models tonight, but Colorado setups are usually pretty basic; its just a matter of figuring out what time to be where. From there, it's usually a beautiful day.
Tuesday holds a similar setup to Monday's; the only difference being where we could be starting from. If Monday's storms lead to a nighttime MCS with good lightning (or something chasable well after dark), we'll end up pretty far from Denver; far enough to warrent an overnight stay elsewhere. Pending Tuesday's setup, it may be logical just to stay out overnight and readjust from there in the morning. Again, not looking at much detail, its hard to calculate such a plan.
Wednesday and beyond look interesting, but hard to comment about them just yet. Over the weekend is the picnic in Wakita which I am going to attend barring any chasable weather. I'm hopeful for a setup which leads us there Friday and maybe something to catch coming home Sunday/Monday.
A "debate" in Stormtrack has opened up; part of it I commented on in my last blog entry. This time, armchair chasers took a couple swings at field chasers after our cap bust yesterday. It's hard to explain, but here's the thread to read up. I was one of the first to reply, but probably should've waited til I had my reply better formed in my head. I knew what I wanted to say, but early morning typing and a bit of a rush left me from hitting it how I wanted. I did take some backlash from my comments and of course, had many things turned against me, including my lottery comment (in reply to a post by another chaser). Basically, a bunch of chasers went out and busted, and those that stayed home (including the internet chaser who started this) basically thought we were chasing a "gorgeous setup" that was ruined by a cap we did not see. Obviously the cap was in my eyes cause I was hoping it would hold up long enough to let Jon and I get out there yesterday. Obviously it became too well held.
I guess the anger from people towards the comments thrown out was that we chase; bust or bang. The what-ifs come out of every scenario chasing offers, whether it's good or bad. IF the cap had broken, gorgeous supercells, some tornadoes, good weather for chasers. Never ONCE did I say "major outbreak" or "mega tornadoes". Perhaps somewhere somebody did, but those words never flew from my mouth. I thought it looked to be a good day; had a respectable cap, but as I also defended, so did May 10, and that broke! Even Amos on the 10th joked about Verne not wasting his time coming out because of the thermonuclear cap. While that happens rarely, thermonuclear caps do get broken sometimes; you just never know.
As for comments on wasting gas and money... well, it depends.. I'm not sure what armchair/internet chasers think is wasting money. Personally, I think someone who virtually chases from the comfort of their desks and maybe goes out once in a while because things look like a 90% chance oughta shut up immediately. They can say whatever they want, but until they chase a few times in a year (chasing = leaving their home town to chase a storm more than once), they're not going to have enough grounds to stand on to make a decision. Most people who busted yesterday knew the odds weren't good; myself included, but because the slim chance was there, we went out. So what, I threw away 1100 miles and 4 tanks of gas; its what I do! Its what I WORK FOR; remember, I took 3 weeks off with money set aside to chase every day those three weeks. Yeah, I admit, had this been a marathon type of chase not in a planned vacation, I may've backed out cause of the distance; but take that same setup and same results 200 miles further west, I would've chased it indefinately. But its my CHASE VACATION, which means, I chase the best setup for the day; either that or I stay home in Denver. Slim chances justify me being out, its why I'm not working real jobs through May.
See folks, particularly those who chase from computers and have NO idea what it is to really chase, the weather isn't always the driving force. Sure, we wouldn't drive 1000 miles to throw a frisbee in some farmer's field off a dirt road near a town called Wahoo. I promise you, I'd rather do that in the field behind my complex. But you do have to understand, storm chasing is more than weather, and I won't preach again on the value of friends, road trips, food, etc. If you don't leave your house to chase storms, you're missing the entire point. Half of the Stormtrack members have never once left their 20 mile comfort bubble to chase a storm, and most of this crap stirred up is probably from them. I cannot say that for sure, and I'm likely to be wrong, but the person whom started the above linked thread; well, no website, no REPORTS other than a dust devil thingie; as far as I can see, this person hasn't chased a single storm. I'm probably wrong, but I would be willing to bet 1100 miles of gas that they've never round tripped a chase of more than 200 miles. And until they prove me wrong, I'll gonna tell them to shove it; cause until they experience the other side of chasing, they have no grounds to rant on us for our "bad" choices. And BTW, if you have chased more than 200 miles in a single trip, I'll drive 1100 miles.. oh wait, just did! ;o)
And as I thought about it on my long trip back home after yesterday's bust, I realized... there are very few people who chase seriously and enjoy it.. and I'm talking those that log 10,000 miles a year; travel to every state they can reach to chase... not many do that... and as far as I'm concerned, we deserve a little bragging. Okay, so we busted huge cause we wasted gas on a trip to nowhere. I wasted a bunch of time and money traveling to a remote place in the country that I would never go otherwise. I ate at a Subway in Central City, Nebraska and was given 2 free cookies; I saw a ton of hot chicks in Nebraska from towns where the population doesn't exceed 3 digits; I got to shoot the breeze with friends I get to see only a couple weeks out of the year; I played football and frisbee in a field and burned off all that Subway I ate earlier... what did you do? Sit around on your ass staring at a computer screen watching the bust unfold virtually! Hmm... be out and about... sitting on my ass...
Who really wasted their time?
If you think chasing is all about the weather, you need to get your nose out of books and your fingers off the mouse and hit the field on a semi-regular basis.. you'll quickly see why we go on long shots... if the weather doesn't reward us, something else will..
And to comment on the drop the faith, pick up a science book... excuse me, but science doesn't explain everything.. tell me kid, why do some storms produce tornadoes and other don't. You find me a science book which explains that, I'll buy into your theory. Unfortuantely, our science doesn't begin to explain what goes on in the atmosphere... yeah, sometimes red flags, neon lights, and dancing bears (Amos likes the dancing bears) scream bust, and we go out. And we bust... most of the time... 10% of the time, we score... and sometimes we score BIG! 1 out of 10, not too bad considering the world's greatest minds still can't predict exactly where and when a tornado will strike... where's your science book now? Yeah, the books hold a good outline; teach you about what goes on, but I have yet to see a situation unfold where I was able to determine the outcome exactly as a book predicted; sure, they get it close, but can you pull up a book that gives you values and then you tell me exactly what'll happen. I think my faith in nature has better stats than most science books.. by the way, this was the year's first bust for me, and I've chased pretty hard so far this season.
And finally, to comment on being pompous and egotistical... I have the time, money, and ability to go out and do what I love! I get to roam the country and chase after the weather. People would KILL to be able to do what they absolutely love; to be able to pursue a passion freely. As far as I'm concerned, that in itself allows me to have an ego. I can do my dream, bang or bust. Not everyone can do that, whatever their dream is... and if you can, I think you deserve a hint of ego; you made it happen for yourself, then you deserve credit, regardless of the outcome! That may sound pretty self-centered, but ya know, I work my ass off to get myself in the field year after year, and whether I bang or bust, I'm there cause I made it happen. You have a problem with my ego, you can shove it... I work damn hard to get myself out there, and regardless of what happens, I still come back happy! You damn right I'll be pompous about it! :o)
So yeah, my two-cents as I've had some time to think. This is my passion, bang or bust, and I'm damn proud of the fact that I can get out and do it as often as I do. I'm sorry if our choices to you seem dumb because of some numbers nature gave us... but since you obviously have no understanding of where I and many other real chasers come from, you should probably refrain from downplaying our choices on impossible days. Nine times out of ten, we'll have this outcome, but you damn well better believe egos will be flying on that one time cause we saw it and you didn't! But even of those nine busts, eight of those leave with me something I never would've had if I hadn't gone out. Maybe you think we're reaching for something good in a very bad situation, but to me, I was out there; enough for me to be happy about. I'm thinking I speak for a few chasers out there when I say all of this. So next time you decide to open your mouth, quit wasting time picking us apart and come out and bust with us... maybe then, you'll understand what I'm talking about. If you don't, then you should really find something more productive to do with your time...
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Saturday, May 21, 2005
I finally busted for real today; the "cap bust" is the hardest bust to endure because all the ingredients come together and you sit under sunny skies the entire day as a perfectly good setup goes to waste and you've normally crossed more than just your home state to sit there beneath the beating sun. Today was that day; a day which the odometer stopped just over 716 miles with another 550 to go tomorrow to finish our journey back to Denver. Jon V and I met up with Jeff Gammons, Kersten McClung, Chris Collura, Eric Nguyen, Scott Currens, and Scott Eubanks as most of our original group had returned to meet again in the Plains for today's crapola bust. While Jon and I ventured over 600 miles one way, the crown goes to Eubanks who left Dallas at 3am this morning to meet with the group in Norfolk, Nebraska. Jon V and I met in Brighton at 6:00am, which meant our days began shortly before 5am. Fortunately a travel day tomorrow back home to chase Monday means a long night's sleep is in store for all of us. Jon and I get to return home for a night before a couple days of High Plains action where we FINALLY get to host the chasing field in our backyards. I guess its a small consolation for today that we get to host next week's game in a place very favorable to chasers for great storms!
Between now and then, another 550 miles to add to my now over 5,000 for the trip before a quick evening to relax gives way to Colorado's High Plains on Monday. Most of the crew will follow us to Colorado tomorrow after sleeping in late. It oughta be more promising than today.
A fellow Stormtrack poster, one of the most pesimistic chasers I've seen, crawled out from her hole to once again bash the chasers who do what we do; GAMBLE ON THE WEATHER. While I won't mention her name directly, I will say that I finally dropped a hint of annoyance at her in my post this evening in Stormtrack in reference to her comment, "I never even considered chasing this deal". Curiously, I wonder what she would've said had everyone scored huge supercells and mile-wide tornadoes... guess she brings the real chasers to light, the ones that gamble on setups like this that bust or score big. Unfortunately we busted, so maybe her decision was a wise one, but you know what, we got out; you didn't. I still wonder who got the better end of that deal. We love what we do, and while busting sucks, we did have some fun tossing footballs and frisbees near Wahoo, Nebraska; sharing laughs and what-ifs before our consolation dinner in Lincoln. Remember, chasing is a mix of the weather and the people; sometimes you have both, but you should always have at least one. While we may've busted, we still had good times... I'm sorry, but if you're not willing to gamble, you probably should look elsewhere in the Spring! Her comment comes at the heals of a constant pesimistic view of every setup she can strike at; read up, you'll find them! I guess bitterness of busting or overall annoyance at her comment added to past made me rant that. In any case, I chase the weather if there are odds... sometimes you win, sometimes you lose; but in the end, its the memories that make every trip beyond my front door worth while. These people I chase with I only see these few weeks of the year, some I've chased with before, others I have not. They're friends to me, and I am hanging with those friends of mine while sharing with them a passion few of us have. That's a rare thing, one I treasure, and as Amos Magliocco points out in his latest blog entry (he does this often), seasons like this will thin out the herds, but those left standing when the dust settles are the ones that truely find enjoyment in being out... and this week, those few of us left standing will venture into my turf in Colorado to once again enjoy the company of other chasers in hopes of celebrating another rare victory in this unforgiving year. In the words of Amos, we chase on...
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I love getting up at 5am! :op Looks like the haul from hell today with pun intended as 90 temps will keep us sweating from here all the way out to Eastern Nebraska! Slim chances exist that we could end up as far east as Iowa today; so preparing to make the drive all the way out there. At 70mph, we should be able to make it as far as Iowa before the late afternoon initiation, so hopeful the cap can hold things as I'm sure we're gonna be driving forever today! Looks like Sunday will act as a down day with a slight chance of severe in Eastern Colorado, but SPC has slapped a big ol' 15% over the area for Monday, so it looks as if we can relax heading back tomorrow as I'm sure we're gonna be on the road a long time Sunday as well.
Anywoo, quick looks at things are shaping up to make for a long day, so I'd better finish packing up and get ready to head out. Jon V is meeting me up north and I'm hoping we're quick to be ready and on the road from there. Jon M has backed down into a game time decision, so it looks as if we're chasing solo for this one. I got in touch with the Weathervine crew and will give them a call later in the morning as our target becomes a little clearer. Nowcasters today will be very valueable as we'll basically be chasing old school; living off Wifi and maybe even a library! Hehehe.. ah well, hopefully it serves us well!
Wish us luck!
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Friday, May 20, 2005
My Plan of Attack for the Weekend
Saturday: Leave Denver very early in the morning (probably 6am) for
York, Nebraska (approx 450 miles); should arrive around 1pm CDT; check
data and move if needed. Chase into Kansas (likely) and stay
overnight on I-70.
Sunday: If a Front Range chase occurs, will leave hotel at a modest
time in the morning to arrive in Eastern Colorado to chase; will chase
Eastern Colorado Sunday and return home for the night. If no chase ir
a local Kansas chase is occuring, will take my time leaving in the
morning and return to Denver at some point during the day on Sunday.
Monday: If a Front Range chase occurs, will leave my apartment
sometime in the morning for the target.
I finished all my errands today... put two new tires, a new windshield wiper, and 4 fresh quarts of oil in my car; she's ready for the final week. I also arrived home to the $400 good news; one of my checks arrived today, which covers the rest of my trip! I'm financially free for the rest of the Mayathon. Also picked up a couple road drinks and snacks as I look to have an early morning tomorrow... will pack and finish laundry today; and be ready to roll first thing in the morning. Will call Jon in a bit to inform him of my plans and coordinate with him on this weekend's setup.
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My email this morning to Colorado chasers in regards to this weekend...
Ehhh...
I guess a chance is a chance, no matter how small. Dr. Seuse says
something similar to that in Horton Hears a Who; and I think he'd say
the same for this weekend...
Saturday's chances look fairly small. We do have some CAPE progged to
be over the area at 0z Sunday, but little SRH and a rather small
theta-E. 850 TDs are progged to be in the low 40s over most of the
Plains during this time. I'm not convinced that's gonna do a lot of
good for us; temps near 90 and dewpoints in the mid 40s... that's
quite a difference to overcome. In swapping emails with Mike Nelson
and chatting with him about this, he agrees that moisture is gonna be
a concern because of the spread between the highs and the dewpoints.
If I were to target an area, I would think North-Central Kansas has
the better shot; making an early morning out of Saturday and heading
out I-70 to Salina; then points north. Here's why...
4500 CAPE! From Salina, go north to the border. SRH is a bit to be
desired unfortunately, as 3km has the best values southeast of the
CAPE bullseye and even less on the 1km scale. HUGE values of theta-E
rolling right into the area with falling values as you go up.
Directional shear in the area is great; NW flow aloft at 250 and 500
to SW flow at 850; speed shear not too shabby, either. The cap could
be an issue further south, which meant I would definately head north
of I-70/maybe even I-80 out that direction.
As for Sunday... now there is better potential for the Front Range
with the Day 2 Post Frontal setup (in theory)... CAPE values recover
nicely with a tounge near 1500 riding the Front Range. SRH is still
lacking pretty hard, though. And if the ETA verifies its 60 hour
forecast, there is quite the cap in placon top of the Front Range.
50s TDs do follow that tounge along the Front Range, so moisture is
expected to improve a bit; this coupled with a decent tounge of
theta-E as well. At 850, upslope conditions are expected with weak
flow pushing against the foothills. While that'll provide some lift,
it may take a bit more to break through the cap which is progged.
Shear through the levels is all right, maybe enough to get storms
rotating. If I were forced to choose only one of the two days to
chase, Sunday would be it...
I'm not going to pull the trigger yet, but I am on vacation; it is the
weekend, and I'm not going to pass on the Kansas setup Saturday to
dink with slim Front Range potential. After playing Kansas Saturday
(or Nebraska), I would run back for the Front Range for Sunday
(barring a monster setup elsewhere).
I'm gonna wait one more model run before I make a final decision, but
as of now, I would be inclined to chase Northern Kansas/Southern
Nebraska on Saturday, then shoot back for the Front Range on Sunday.
My thoughts! :o) And remember.. it IS the weekend! ;o)
The whole "it IS the weekend" thing is to remind them that time shouldn't be an issue and vacation days can still be saved. In other words, I hope I get a few people out!
That's all I've got for now... got some errands to run, so I'm gonna put some clothes on and go do all of that! High temps in Denver today expected to break the previous record of 91 by a degree or more! Yeesh! Hot stuff returns! Also, anyone locally who gets KMGH Channel 7 in Denver; watch the news tonight as Mike's gonna show off my lightning shots I took in Kansas on Wednesday! Yippie!!
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Thursday, May 19, 2005
Time for some R&R before the weekend's Front Range action... while not very certain over this weekend's chase potential in Eastern Colorado, it does bare watching. I'll dive into models and probs tomorrow as I am pretty spent today and am looking forward to a full night's sleep in my own bed.
With a completely free day tomorrow, I am gonna keep myself busy. First and foremost is to bandage the Storm Tracer; 2 new tires, an oil change, and a new windshield wiper are on the list for her tomorrow. Also, I am gonna update chase logs from this week and put those up at some point tomorrow as well; those will include May 17's Nebraska Landspout and May 18's triple storm chase in Eastern Kansas. Still reeling over those lightning shots I took last night! May make a stop to blow a couple of them up for the wall!
Quick thanks to the gang of chasers I had the privilage to chase with this passed week; so many to name; Amos, Jon, Verne, Scott, Scott, Scott, Eric, Jeff, Kersten, Chris. Good to run into many chasers as well, including Eric B (too many same names), Dick, and several other Stormtrackers that I briefly crossed paths with! As I've said a dozen times before and will repeat til my last chase, its the people that make chasing this fun! We spent nearly 8 hours shooting the breeze at various Kansas hotspots in the passed couple days, and those times are as fun as those beneath the mesos. Amos Magliocco says it best in his blog...
Chasing with a great group like I'm privileged to do makes it even tougher to decide if I should hang it up for a few weeks or so and return when the pattern is more favorable. I'll probably go home, but the amazing storms and camaraderie is hard to leave behind.
I have to agree... half the experience is those times when you're not racing for your life or gawking over nature's beauty... its those times when you're in good company killing away the time beneath clear skies and good laughs. Thanks to many who continue to make chasing an all-around great way to spend he Spring... I look forward to next week's ventures in the company of you all again!
See you all in a couple days...
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We had a fun day in Southeast Kansas today... between the amazing structure, insane dercecho, and incredible CGs, we had a helluva day which looked to be busting pretty bad for a while.
The group of us Amos mentioned hung around in the same Best Western parking lot which I am sending this from here in Emporia til nearly 7pm. We finally took off after the first cell. We got a great treat..
Cell 1: Incredible Structure
Cell 2: Awesome CGs
Cell 3: The derecho from hell which obviousll cleared I-35 north of where we were..
I'll have a complete log up shortly, but I have to post these lightning pics... I took these on 15 second exposures with my Canon A85 as the lightning was literally right on top of us! These were the crazy CGs we saw in the second storm after sunset.
Shots of my life so far and pretty well are the report... I'll post storm structure shots and maybe a quick video of our derecho experience later on!
Great chase with friends as I've been lucky to enjoy the last couple weeks with. It does appear we're gonna take a break and return to Denver for a day or so to refuel and reload. We intend to be back as soon as the weather warrents (in a couple days it looks), so hopefully I'll be able to enjoy the time with friends again!
One last picture... below is a hilarious shot I took of Jon Van de Grift and Eric Nguyen while we were chillin' at the Emporia Best Western... not sure what they were looking at, but it can't be good! Give it a caption; I'm sure you can get pretty creative!
Another great day!!!
Today, looks like we're gonna return to Denver for a couple down days before heading back out again over the weekend. Today will be a travel day getting back to Denver from here in Emporia; looks like Friday and possibly Saturday will be spent at home relaxing before heading back out for what could be a potentially good week next week! We shall see! Anywoo, I'm stealing Wifi again from this Best Western, so I am gonna head back across the street to our Wifi-less Days Inn (which was $15 cheaper) and begin to pack up and get ready to return home for a couple days. My car is slightly wounded (slight tire damage and windshield wiper) and could use an oil change. As is sits right now, I should easily surpass 4,000 miles for the Mayathon before reaching home tonight, probably doubling that next week. On May 28, we're going to head to Wakita for the Stormtrack Picnic and Twister reunion (aren't we just a bunch of nerds) which barring any chasable weather, will likely be the end of the Mayathon. So far; 6 chase days; 5 tornadoes; awesome structured storms, incredible lightning, and only 1 bust!
KICK ASS!!!! :o)
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Wednesday, May 18, 2005
Packing up in Salina, Kansas from the Best Western and preparing to head east for today's setup. Haven't had time to put up the log from yesterday and likely won't til the weekend, so you'll have to settle for the one still of our landspout from yesterday. Today's setup looks a bit better than yesterday's, so we're hopeful for today's action. I got in touch with Scott Roberts from Wichita to let him know we're chasing his turf today! Gonna grab some lunch and hit the road from Salina heading south and east!
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Its bedtime in Salina! We ended up chasing in Southern Nebraska and scored a helluva storm with a helluva landspout tornado! More later... just sent the vid out from today and am about to die for the night. Showered away the 10 pounds of dirt, dust, cow shit, and everything else in the fields of Nebraska and am ready to snooze! Image below of today's catch; more tomorrow if time prevails!
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Tuesday, May 17, 2005
If you recall last Wednesday, we were sitting in this very parking lot tossing footballs and frisbees. Minus the balls and discs, we're doing the same right now. Fortunately we arrived last night here in Colby so our drive was half a mile under the interstate to meet with the crew I chased with last week to chill at the Best Western. Hopes for today are small, probably better tomorrow, but we're here and will make the best of it! More later...
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I just finished my morning analysis of today's chase plans and am not overly impressed. I imagine the squall line from hell kicking through today at some rather sick speeds, so it'll be a find your best position and let it run you down. I'm not sure exactly how far north I want to go as I think that the southern extent of the line will make for the best chance of chasable storms. Just as an FYI, from Colby to Lexington is about 150 miles, so I don't foresee more than a two hour drive to any target we would elect to chase for today. I'm hoping to get southern right moving cells off the line and perhaps give us a slightly better tornado chance, which is what keeps me thinking along or south of the KS/NE border. Here's my morning post in the FORECAST thread on Stormtrack...
Hmm... decent CAPE, TDs in the low 60s, decent theta-E... but no real shear to speak of... ETA runs this morning have a narrow band of 2000-2500J/kg from extreme North-Central Kansas up through Central Nebraska and into South Dakota. SBCAPE values near 2500 run pretty common in that area. Slapping the 3km SRH over it, a bulls-eye of good shear is sitting over in Iowa; most values in our good CAPE may hit 150 if you're lucky. The 1km is pitiful with 50 as good as it gets; I guess some good news is that its over our CAPE axis are opposed to of in Iowa! Winds as you move up don't change a whole lot; speeds are about the same from 500 down to 850 with directional shear pretty weak as well. Definately not a supercell day.
Further south along the dryline into Southwest Kansas, a very very tough cap sits over the area and lack of really strong forcing makes it hard to imagine anything will get through the cap. CAPE values along the dryline south of I-70 don't break 2000J/kg, either, and shear values don't amount to much down there either.
My play would be along and north of I-70 today; not exactly sure how far north yet, but preferrably along the dryline a bit further north into Kansas and perhaps Southern Nebraska...
Just a note about moisture, as Jeff mentions in a Stormtrack post, the 13z SFC obs show only 50s TDs and even some 40s in Oklahoma in Texas advecting this way, so I wouldn't count on a huge upswing in moisture up here... gonna be an iffy chase day today, I'm afraid...
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Monday, May 16, 2005
Well, we're in Colby... again... opted for the Days Inn as opposed to the Best Western just cause I wanted something different.. that and the Days Inn had a pool and there was actually time to enjoy it if we chose, so here we are... same price, too! Anywoo, today's is looking bleak as expected, but we're in good shape for tomorrow for both plays in Southwest Kansas or Central Nebraska. Both are within a couple hours drive from here, so we're set both ways.
The trip out here was uneventful; stopping in Flagler, Colorado for gas and a Cherry Vanilla Dr. Pepper before finishing our journey into Kansas! Waahoo! So here we sit, killing time. Parts of the gang are booked at the Best Western across the interstate, so fortunately we don't have to coordinate too much tomorrow to find everyone. Verne Carlson is expected to head out as well, so we'll catch up with him in the field tomorrow if he doesn't get here in time to catch us before we leave.
Wednesday looks decent out east, so we're probably gonna again stay along I-70 after tomorrow's chase someplace around Salina and play Wednesday's setup that way. Beyond that is a bit uncertain. We're hoping for a chance to chase across into the Midwest; even a squall line, as we'll have down time after that before the next system rolls in.
But yeah, we're here... again... in the wind... just chillin. Gotta love Kansas when there's no severe weather to chase! :op
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I hesitate greatly to call today a chase day, but because tomorrow's target is right on the way, I'm dubbing today as a travel day with a possibility to chase. Parameters for today are very weak in most areas, although Central Nebraska does look decent compared with the area of western Kansas which we are "targeting". With tomorrow's setup looking like something in Southern Kansas, a overnight stay along I-70 is probably a safe bet. Tomorrow's setup is anything but a dream, either; but as Tim Marshall says, "YOU CHASE". I have the next two weeks off, and I'll be damned if I sit around at home this entire two weeks. Even remote chances warrent getting out. This obviously aided by the close-to-home factor as I would likely be sitting at home watching M*A*S*H if this were well out east. Since I can follow this system to wherever, I might as well.
Jon should arrive within the hour and we'll probably take our time heading out. While SPC downplays the area, Goodland's HWO mentions possible severe with hail and wind primary threats. Again, not the greatest chances, but I guess a storm's a storm if we run into one, otherwise we have an easier travel day tomorrow.
This setup sucks needless to say.. Jeff Snyder in Stormtrack thinks that there's little to chase this week; I'm sort of agreeing (another reason I'm heading out today). Nothing looks great after Wednesday which means I'll be left to one week to make or break this trip. Keeping my fingers crossed is about all I can do at this point; and hoping that maybe one storm finds a small area of good stuff to go nuts in! *shrugs* We shall see!
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Sunday, May 15, 2005
Spending the down day wisely... hell, the Denver radar hasn't even gone our of clear-air mode yet! Storms are firing nearby, but lack of support will prevent anything from getting severe... if something does go severe, it'll be very quick, so unless its something in the city, I'm content with waiting around for tomorrow's action.
As for today, I spent most of today updating logs from last week. Below are the links to the four I have posted. I still have video to go through for the 12th, but I'll get to that at some point. The weather really is too nice to spend inside today, and I've already been at this for most of the afternoon. Feels much later than 3:15p right now, that's for sure. Between logs, I did clean my clothes, so all I have to do is repack them for tomorrow's venture!
Tomorrow looks decent, Tuesday looks better; so Jon Van de Grift and myself will definately be leaving Denver tomorrow; likely chasing out east just to get into position for Tuesday and Wednesday. When we leave is still pending, but tomorrow night will be the start of the blood and guts of this 2005 Mayathon.
Again, the logs updated are below! Enjoy!
May 10 Chase - Southern Nebraska
May 11 Chase - Southwest Nebraska
May 12 Chase - Texas Caprock
May 13 Chase - Northern Texas
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Saturday, May 14, 2005
Made it safely home to Lakewood from Amarillo this evening. Am currently enjoying some quiet time with my lady and relaxing. Tomorrow's chase prospects don't look too impressive; enough so that I may play tomorrow as a down day and chase if something kicks up close by. Otherwise, I'm gonna use tomorrow as a chance to reset, recharge, restock, and relax before the real blood and guts of my Mayathon. Monday holds potential along the High Plains, then shifts into the Central Plains for Tuesday and will go from there.
I'm gonna call Jon V, my chase partner through the next couple weeks, tomorrow and fill him in on the situation. I think tomorrow's forecast holds potential for storms along the Palmer Ridge, but I personally think New Mexico would be a wiser target for tomorrow's chasers. New Mexico puts me out of position for later days, thus I'll stay closer to home and chase anything that may develop close by. But as I said, tomorrow is going to be my at home down day to reload. Besides, my jersey could use a cleaning.. still not sure what I stepped in while trying to help Jason M.
Good luck to chasers tomorrow, and I'll be in the field again by Monday for the real part of this trip. Great way to kick off... several tornadoes; two beautiful supercells; great laughs; and crazy times! Part 2 kicks off shortly!
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Got on the North Texas (not Panhandle) Supercell from Childress and chased it as it tured hard and moved southeast. I chased with Scott Eubanks, Amos Magliocco, and various other chasers throughout this trip. Prior to us going after this storm, I had docked 7.7 miles from the hotel; all that finding a post card for my girlfriend. After that, I logged another 400 miles which ended me here in Amarillo at the Ritz Plaza Hotel for $39.99 a night.
Great storm; may've got a brief spin-up along the gust front toward the end of the chase, but I cannot say for sure... not only did I not get any video of it, but we were hauling balls trying to make sure we got south of it before getting rolled in the elongated core! Other than that, we saw some beautiful structure, crazy amounts of CGs, and wall clouds that refused to give birth! A helluva way to end the 1st week! Here are a few pics...
I bailed on the chase about 5 miles west of Haskell at 8:00pm (I think) when the storms were lining out and everyone else was heading east. I elected to begin my journy back to Denver.. on the way back, I scored a few very scenic pics..
And the final one, the one I'm most proud of from today; my first lightning attempts with my Canon A85 (which is the same camera which did a header from the roof of my car onto the highway yesterday). This shot was one of several taken from south of Childress on the distant storms to my east.
I'm gonna sleep in tomorrow and head out at my leisure... this isn't a bad hotel; a resort style place with an indoor pool and such... great price, though (45.99 after tax); will remember this place. Wifi is fast and strong and easy to get on!
I imagine I'll be back in Denver early evening (pending when I get up and hit the road). The hotel gives a free HOT breakfast with eggs and shit, so I'm gonna munch down on that before I head out for Denver. SPC still has Eastern Colorado mentioned in their outlook for Sunday, so it may actually be Monday before I see my first day off. We shall see! In the meantime, a hot shower and some rest before heading home tomorrow!
Good night from Amarillo!
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Friday, May 13, 2005
Sitting in Childress, Texas still as we watched an MD go up... shortly therafter, a tornado watch was issued for our area... the text of that watch is below...
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 269
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
DISCUSSION...RAPID SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR MESOLOW NEAR CDS...AND GENERALLY ALONG
SURFACE DRYLINE FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST TX.
VERY LARGE /DAMAGING HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS ISOLATED
TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING INTO WESTERN OK.
Still waiting for initiation, and this town is slowly starting to fill with storm chasers. We've mooched Wifi from a local resturant and have been sitting in the heat and hmidty for quite some time now. I went on a hunt for a post card to send to my girlfriend and finally found one at an antique store here in town after striking out at local grocery stores, Wal-Mart, and various gas stations. The card was actually an older Oklahoma one, but I figured its close enough as I'm sure we'll be crossing the river at some point this evening.
Stay tuned this evening.. not sure when I'll see internet again... after today, I head back to Colorado for a couple down days with maybe a Sunday trip out to Eastern Colorado... we shall see!
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I would've updated last night, but the Best Western in Childress, TX didn't like me... everyone else in the hotel was able to connect to the wifi except me... I had to settle for a box this morning since the Wifi is down all together now!
Yesterday in the Caprock of Texas, we intercepted 3 tornadoes at a safe distance today in the Caprock after screaming 400 plus miles from Colby, Kansas to catch them! Great day yesterday as we saw the tornadoes in some rather poor contrast and escaped with all our windows (all the chasers who got close to the storm got stuck in the core and lost windshields and other windows)! Along with the tornadoes, I passed through some bigger than golfball hail, tried to offer help to Jason M, and NEARLY had one of those infamous burritos! What a fun day! We ended up in Shamrock Childress where a group of us spent a couple hours watching storm after storm roll through giving us a great light snow, some crazy winds, and a few seconds of pea to marble-sized hail! Whata day!!!
Today, our target looks to be right over there *points 100 miles northeast* in Southwestern Oklahoma so we're not in any hurry to head out from Shamrock Childress (thanks for the correction Jason)... a nice change of pace as we've been driving 300 plus miles to our targets; today, we're practically already there.
Down days starting Saturday, so I'm probably gonna return home for the weekend. Verne has mentioned Eastern Colorado as a target for Sunday, but either way, it looks as if I'll have a couple down days to reset, clean my car (again), and stock up for the next couple weeks.
Anywoo, we're gonna start planning our day and figure out when we want to leave... I'll see if I can get a few pics uploaded in the meantime. I'll have plenty of time over the next few days where I'll get full logs up and running!
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Thursday, May 12, 2005
Today's a new day... yesterday was a semi-bust that ended up in Southwest Nebraska... tack on another 600 miles for yesterday..
In about 15 minutes, we leave the Best Western in Colby where we stayed overnight heading south into the Panhandles... will try and update again when we arrive.. we have about 320 miles to go!
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Wednesday, May 11, 2005
We're currently sitting in Colby, Kansas at the Best Western across the street from the Oasis Truckstop which we enjoyed some fried food and filled up. Conditions are coming together very well so it seems and we're quite content with our current position. The owner of the hotel came out and commented how how it can't be a good thing that five chase vehicles are here. Thanks to him for allowing us net access.
Not sure if I'll update before initiation, but definately worth watching Northwest Kansas as it looks as if significant tornadoes are vrey possible. Going to be an active evening, that's for sure.
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Good morning from Salina, Kansas! We're mooching Wifi from the Holiday Inn because the internet at the Best Western we stayed us wasn't working. Kind of a disappointment considering last night's clerk hooked us up pretty good with 5 people at less than $25 each!
Today's got some serious potential to our west. We're likely gonna head west along I-70, then make a north or south turn based upon updated info. A stratus deck has developed north of the front which has pushed a hair south since last night. Glancing over NWS AFDs for the area, it looks as if a corridor along and south of I-70, particularly along the dryline, hosts the best chance as the front may slide a bit further south throughout the day today, thus reducing the severe weather chance along the I-80 corridor which looked like a distinct possibility with last night's runs. We're awaiting Amos Magliocoo to arrive so we can coordinate our efforts in determinng the best place to target for today. Right now, I'm thinking Scott City, kind of the same area we scored on April 10. Hard to say, though, but I do believe the best chance for tornadoes lies further north near the front. The triple point holds good potential as well, so it's really another crapshoot...
Yesterday was an incredible day with an incredible supercell! Verne Carlson and the rest of the crew nabbed a nighttime tornado north of York about the same time Amos and I were running for our lives at Sonic as sirens were blazing for the hook we danced around. The storm during the day was definately the high point of the day as it was the single most beautiful storm I have ever seen. I haven't gotten around to posting pictures, but believe me, they are incredible!
Chasing Thursday has become a very strong option along the Caprock, so I imagine after today's ventures, we're heading down to Texas tomorrow for some Panhandle action. Friday holds some slight potential over a wide area, including Central Oklahoma, so I may very well be out here through the weekend.
Whew, good start to the Mayathon and looks like I have at least two more days of fun before the first break where I'll return to Denver to pick up my partner for the remainder of the trip. Good things to come, I think... I'll keep you posted!
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I just gave Amos a heart attack...
We're in Salina, Kansas, probably too far south and east for tomorrow as northwest Kansas looks like crazy good... we had a helluva day today in Central Nebraska with the Grand Island storm which was the most beautiful storm I have ever seen! It was incredible! Lots of pictures and stories, including Amos and I's Sonic dinner in York when tornado sirens sent us north and falling hail and a nighttime tornado (which Verne and crew nabbed) sent us running with our tails between our legs... what a day! Six for six for non-bust chases and another promising day tomorrow... will try and update more in the morning.
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Tuesday, May 10, 2005
I'm starting to feel better about this "sticking to your guns" thing... last night at midnight, I snuck out of bed while my girlfriend was tearing through Zzz to glance at the 06z SWODY1 to see the risk area not changing much from yesterday. I REALLY wanted to see the 5% be pushed further west. I felt the parameters were in place along the front and felt that storms rolling in off the higher terrain of Wyoming and Colorado would serve as our best shot of the day... guess what, SPC agreed; their 5% was pulled west into extreme NE Colorado... Ogallala remains my target; I'm feeling pretty happy about this.
The clock has reached 00:00:00:00:00; I'm 90 minutes from heading out.. a quick breakfast, some packing, and a goodbye kiss to my lady is all that's left before I begin Mayathon 2005. I spoke with Amos Magliocco last night and we're going to meet up with him in Southwest Nebraska for today's show before heding south to play the dryline tomorrow!
My hopes have improved a bit for today! Nice to see SPC fall into suit with your thoughts! Verne Carlson and Katie Burtis I think are all that remain in our group as Merage pulled out with a 2a | 
