Saturday, April 30, 2005
Oh yeah... just in case you didn't believe me...
That's what's happened in the last hour... more still coming, too! NWS thinking another 1 to 3 inches... guess what, tomorrow's May 1 and it'll be snowing in Denver!
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Friday, April 29, 2005
It's still snowing... and its gonna continue! Check out this forecast for Lakewood for the weekend...
Overnight: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low near 24. North wind 6 to 8 mph becoming south southeast.
Saturday: A slight chance of snow showers before 8am, then scattered rain showers after 1pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy early, then becoming mostly sunny, with a high around 51. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. North wind between 4 and 7 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Sunday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Calm wind becoming northeast between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday: Snow likely before noon, then scattered rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a high around 44. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday Night: Scattered rain and snow showers before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 31. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tuesday: A slight chance of showers after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high around 59.
Tuesday Night: A slight chance of showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.
That sucks! I think I would've rather been in Arkansas today all things considered. The good news from this, if any, is that I don't chase and get to save my money for the real trip. The bad news, I don't chase.. God this sucks. But I feel pretty good compared to those who ventured to chase today... unfortunately I was not proven wrong and things were crappy. Check out Amos Magliocco's Blog entry and see for yourself. I hope his dinner was good at least. Sorry to everyone cept the MSU gang (who apparently got one of the TWO reported today). Not a great chase day... I think I can safely say we're waiting for May to get here. While they chased grundge, I scraped snow... not sure which if the better of the two.
In other news, the 'Service Engine Soon' light on the Storm Tracer is gone... while driving pies tonight, it went off during a run only to come back on again; later in the night, it went back out and I haven't seen it since. I'll see if it returns tomorrow, but in any case, the car continues to run with the same performance as before the light appeared, so I may opt to clean the questionable parts and see if that takes care of the problem. With the tune-up and oil change, I oughta eliminate the issue and hopefully resume my peaceful driving. If not, I'll start replacing parts as needed. In any case, I am very certain that this will not jepardize my upcoming trip.
By the way, did you see my counter? It's now in the single digits... my big question at the moment; how long after that counter reaches zero will it be before I can hit the road for something worthy of a chase? Oddly enough, I have a strange feeling my mid-May start is going to be a wonderful thing, as I feel the time prior to the 10th may be a waste to entirely take off, minus maybe on good chase day someplace. Other than that, I think I'll get the prime three weeks to play with what's shaping up to be a late start. I guess because of my timing with my trip (being selfish), it's not entirely a bad thing, but I still want to shake this snow... it makes that 9 days seem even further out. Some good news, the latter half of that forecast above has temps back into the mid to upper 60s toward next weekend... hopefully that verifies.
In the meantime, I imagine the blog will be rather quiet over the next 3 to 5 days as I dive into a massive week of work. Still awaiting coverage on those last two shifts on Wed and Fri, but in the meantime, I am workig just about every hour I'm not sleeping or in class, and even class is taking a backseat this week. Lots to do in preparation.. lets just hope Nature gets off her ass and glances at a calender to remind her what's suppose to be kicking into high gear in the next few weeks...
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One of the upsides to starting my chase vacation 10 days into May is that I have the extra 10 days to sift through last second issues which may arise; such as my P1506 error from last night's engine light alert. I talked to my local Meineke and scheduled my appointment to go in with Dania on Monday to have it looked at. At that time, I will also get the tune-up, oil change, and other goodies done, as well as service and eliminate that light.
Another advantage to a late start is that I don't waste "vacation" time in early May, which is looking rather bleak at least through the first few days. Hell, I awakened this morning to 3 inches of snow on my car and snow still falling. Most of it is tapering out now, but another small round is expected tomorrow evening. Snow advisories up across various Colorado counties and freeze advisories up through Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Not condusive to storm chasing. My mid-May start will hopefully prove to be a hidden blessing as it hopefully allows for the pattern to warm up and moisten up a bit. GFS runs out as far as the first few days of May do not hold a lot of weight in terms of accuracy, so its hard to be disappointed or pleased with what you see 200 plus hours out. Things can change either direction from one run to the next and typically like to do so. In any case, I am not holding out a ton of excitement for chasable weather for the first few days, which means, I get tempted less AND miss less. As far as I'm concerned, things can hold off til the 10th. Give me enough time to wrap up finals and get the car finalized; right now, I'm in no hurry... this time next week, my tune may change.
If I were sitting in Arkansas right now, I'd be a little concerned. Early morning convection has lead to a grunge fest over most of the target area. This is seriously doing a number on instability and is probably worrying a few chasers who made the long trek to chase what still could be the first major outbreak of the season. I, personally, never was terribly excited about today, and not so much for the forecast aspect of it (which looked good prior to today), but because it's well out of my range for chasing right now. Had this been in May when I was already out, I'd be sitting right along side Amos and company in Arkansas, but this far exceeds my 24 hour notice drive-time bubble, which barely would get me into Southern Missouri; and obviously falling right smack-dab in the middle of my busiest three days at work, really prevented me from diving too deep into this system.
I still say the potential is there, and obviously would not discount anything right now as it's only noon out East and 11a Central. We've chased beautiful supercells that produced on worse looking days ( March 27, 2004) where we drove over 100 miles to get into a small area of clearing and scored very well. I can see, and highly hope, this type of thing happening again where some clearing breaks out in a good area for supercell development and WHAM! You're staring down a tornado. I think the issues of convection quickly going linear have faded back a bit as the system has slowed from the models and will hopefully give a better time frame for discrete storms before going linear later in the evening. Hopefully this gives chasers an hour or two to play before things start to merge.
Looking at the latest visible satellite image and animation, Arkansas is socked in pretty good. A hole trying to develop in the clouds over extreme Northwest Arkansas, near Fayetteville, may be a sign of things to come, but it appears as if is well behind the frontal boundry. Definately not a large space to work with and definately on the wrong side of the front, but hopefully those clouds can start to burn away down south and give way to some sunlight; otherwise anything south of a Fort Smith to Searcy to Memphis line is pretty well caked in and looks like it will be for a bit longer. SPC does have an MD out for the area south of that above mentioned line, but they seem to concern themselves with severe potential rather than tornadoes. The two storms in the area are riding right along that line I mentioned at a pretty decent clip. However, they are kicking out some outflow boundries to the south of Little Rock at this time, so if some clearing can work its way in there, it may be worth sticking close to one of those boundries where the low level shear oughta be greatly enhanced.
This is a tough call, and since I haven't looked to deeply at the forecasts previous to now, its hard to judge things. I'm walking blindly into a complicated setup, so I'm really not going to reach out for answers with this one. I still think potential is there, but I certainly would not be very excited being blanketed in like that, either. SPC's latest Day 1 has a hatched 15% area much further south and east than previously though, extending from Southeast Arkansas eastward into Northern Mississippi, Northwestern Alabama, and extreme Southwestern Tennessee. Their text still has very strong wording and doesn't really harp too much on the cloud cover over the area right now. It'll be interesting to see how all this pans out over the next few hours. They're still thinking supercells with tornadoes are likely and who am I to argue... I don't think I'm quite as excited about the prospects, but hopefully I am proved wrong.
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Thursday, April 28, 2005
Amos is in Arkansas preparing to chase tomorrow... that lucky sonofabitch! *LOL* Dude, you'll have to explain this latest fetish about dancing bears! *LOL*
A small snaffu in my vehicle this evening... while driving pizzas, my "Service Engine Soon" light came on. I took it to Autozone and Checker to have it looked at; both gave me a P1506 error... this is what I found online about that...
DTC P1506 is set when the PCM detects the engine idle speed is greater than the desired rpm. This is most commonly caused by a dirty or bad IAC valve. Cleaning the throttle body will, most likely, cure this problem.
All in all, it doesn't seem to be anything serious enough to fear my trip over, so I'm not going to lose sleep over it. ALl this will do is get me in the shop a week earlier than I had planned, as I'll probably stick this out through the weekend and take it in Monday morning with my girlfriend's car. I still look to get a tune-up, oil change, and a radiator flush (comes with the deal). The mechanic at the Meineke at which I take my car to offered to buy Dania's old Volvo... in trade, he'd do all the maintance for our cars; which means if that goes through (he's gonna look at the car to see its value), then I could use the money I was originally gonna put into maintanance to fix the P1506 error, which I believe is directly linked to the studdering I get when I initially put on the gas. This may also solve the rough idle I have as well... in which case, I'm thrilled to see the light as it finally shed some light (forgive the pun) on that issue.
Good luck to Amos and the rest of the chasers playing in Arkansas tomorrow.. be safe and happy hunting! I'll be watching from the confines of my snowy Denver apartment!
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Two inches of snow fell at my place last night with a few more inches forecasted through tomorrow morning. Most of what fell last night will be gone, so I don't imagine seeing much snow in the morning, maybe a couple inches on grassy areas with wet roads to piss of the morning rush hour. Remind me again that I leave for Mayathon in 11 days? *LOL* Hell, through this weekend, we're expecting cool, dreary weather. Not always snow (thank God), but still pretty "un-Colorado-like". Snow could fall Saturday night into Sunday morning as well, but thankfully, its melting quick, so its not piling up. But still... grrr! *L*
Tomorrow's system still looks fun, but as Aaron of Stormtrack says, "the line of death". It definately appears as if one of two very bad things will happen (for chasers); one, storms explode early and go linear very quickly, limiting good tornado time; two, discrete storms that do go are going to be HAULING ASS and nearly impossible to keep up with unless you chase in a starship. My thoughts are unless you live within a couple hundred miles, its probably a huge gamble to head down. Please note that I am not saying you won't strike gold, but I wouldn't be making the trip even if I lived a few hundred miles closer. A setup like this in the Central Plains, perhaps... but in Arkansas and Mississippi... not really my cup of joe... at least not for a setup like this.
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Wednesday, April 27, 2005
Jon has emailed me and it looks like he'll be chasing with me for 2 out of the 3 weeks. He's set to chase from the 13th thru the 30th. More than likely, I'll be returning to Denver about the same time (barring a PDS HIGH RISK in Central Oklahoma) in preparation for my summer semester. Because my financial aid was limited to only loans, I elected to not take classes over the summer, so all I have is my Thurs, Fri, Sat work schedule, which oughta make for a fun summer!
The only thing with Jon coming is my 10th release and his 13th release... pending on chasable weather on the 10th thru the 12th, I would be making a return trip to Denver to get him. I'm not figuring this to be an issue cause I can easily make Denver anytime on the 13th from a 12th chase and be on the road again quickly to make a target on the 14th. Basically, I just need to make sure May 13 is either a down day or a DCVZ day (best case scenario). Other than that, aside from a potential chase or a 3 or 4 day stretch of down days, I am not planning on seeing the Rockies between the 13th and the 30th. And guess what, my vacation starts in LESS than two weeks!
Friday's setup is looking mighty juicy. I think it'll be the first significant tornado threat of the season. However, a linear mode looms as the winds near the front may not support supercell development very long before pulling everything into a line. The warm front comes into play a bit and I would likely be sitting someplace along it, hoping that storms crossing it will go nuts. The low which sets up and hauls ass out would be a good target as well, definately playing in the area close to both pending terrain. Obviously, I have no intentions to chase this for all sorts of reasons. It's not even a thought (hence the green in my alert).
Looks like I'll be better than set financially as it's possible I'll be seeing $800 in vid sales come to me before I take off. That'll leave me with well over $1500 to finance my trip. With Jon coming along splitting gas and hotel costs, I've probably shaved at least 25% of my expenses overall. I'll be set. I'm taking the car in next week for final maintanence as all major systems are checked out to be working. Pending on my tips from this weekend (which oughta be decent with the gloomy weather we're expecting), I may put $200 for other things like the radiator and AC system, just to cover everything.
Off for now... got some school-work I need to finish up. Less than 2 weeks! :o) AHHHHHH!
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Tuesday, April 26, 2005
Two weeks from today, I will be free to roam the Plains. Two weeks which I'm sure will pace itself at a snail's speed while at the same time, race by like Tony Stewart's #20. Amos Magliocco is drawing even closer to his send off and his patience is starting to wear so it seems. Friday's setup is looking decent, but for not-so-decent chase areas, and while I wouldn't call Amos's getting out Friday (just cause) a desperate move, I would hinge on saying that saving money for a better kick-off would be warrented. Me, I'll be saving my trip for the first HINT of severe as soon as my kick-off Tuesday rolls around. Obviously chasing the hills and trees of Arkansas isn't on the top of my kick-off list; I think I'd be happier in better terrain over familiar areas I've tredded water in the past.
I still have no immediately chase plans locally through at least the weekend. Gloomy weather and possibly snow sits on the horizon for the weekend. While not great for chasing, it should pad my tip money driving pizzas as bad weather equals more business. After helping my girlfried put money down for a new car, I'll be happy with a few extra bucks to add to my chase vacation fund. Still finalizing details with Jon in regards to partnering up which will add a HUGE financial break for my multi-week trip!
Speaking of my girlfriend, she jumped into the world of car payments with a low mileage 1998 Chevy Metro. With a full 3 year warrenty, a 12% interest rate (not bad for a first time buyer and much better than mine), and only $250 down, she's paying $190/month for 48 months. The car's in pretty good shape; checked out with just over 53,000 miles and with proper care, oughta last for quite a while! She needed the reliable vehicle and I was happy to help her get into one. Of course, ya know I'll have to get her to break it in with a Front Range hailstorm at some point... but maybe I'll wait til next summer after she has time to get use to it.
That's really it from the chase world... obviously still sitting around collecting dust til I can get back out again. Still riding high from April 10 and April 20, so I'm not exactly over the coo-coo's nest yet. However, I feel once the month of April bows out to May, my countdown may begin to become a bit more hyped. To be quite honest, I'm excited as hell! I can hardly wait another two weeks!
Coverage almost complete! Just two more shifts to go!
Tuesday, May 10
KC317 07:45am-12:45pm
PL307 01:15pm-03:00pm
Wednesday, May 11
KC317 09:45am-12:45pm
KC317 05:00pm-09:00pm
Thursday, May 12
WC243 07:45am-10:00am
WC244 10:00am-12:45pm
Friday, May 13
KC317 09:30am-11:00am
KC317 11:00am-03:00pm
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Monday, April 25, 2005
Quick notes as I nailed a buttload of coverage already for finals week...
Tuesday, May 10
KC317 07:45am-12:45pm
PL307 01:15pm-03:00pm
Wednesday, May 11
KC317 09:45am-12:45pm
KC317 05:00pm-09:00pm
Thursday, May 12
WC243 07:45am-10:00am
WC244 10:00am-12:45pm
Friday, May 13
KC317 09:30am-11:00am
KC317 11:00am-03:00pm
I also picked up a 6 hour shift on Monday JUST IN CASE... however, if weather looks good close by on that day, I'll drop it... if not, I've got 6 of my 15 hours back for that week.
Took the car in this morning to double-check the transmission and all checked out just fine. I'm gonna take her in next week for a final oil change and tune-up and she'll be set to go!
Also, a HUGE development; my chase partner from last week, Jon Van de Grift, has contacted me in regards to chasing with me for two of the three weeks I'm out. Jon's an excellent photographer and has websites at http://www.jonvandegrift.com/, http://geoimaging.org/, and http://naturalhazards.org/. Check them out and learn a bit about who may end up spending a couple weeks in May chasing along with me. Having him along will cut my costs dramatically and give me a chance to share the experience with someone. Jon's a native from the midwest and served some time in my home state at Ohio University in Athens; enjoys Nature and will probably have the time of his life roaming the Plains for two weeks. I'm excited at this prospect and hope it pans out. Stay tuned here and check out his sites.
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Sunday, April 24, 2005
I just finished watching Verne Carlson's April 10 Trego County, Kansas DVD he sent all of us in the carvan that day. Made me smile and remember all the fun we've had so far this year. Our little group from Colorado hasn't done too bad this year... I do hope we get to enjoy this straight through May and into June when we'll be spending most afternoons in the Eastern Plains of our resident state.
Finalizing all coverage and time off for Mayathon... May 15 thru June 2 is set; finals week is my only stretch of time I need to get covered for. I sent out an email this morning requesting coverage for the week, and already was replied with several crutial shifts covered.. here's the list of my shifts and the ones struck out have been covered. I'll update this every few days as I resend the email with the updates...
Tuesday, May 10
KC317 07:45am-12:45pm
PL307 01:15pm-03:00pm
Wednesday, May 11
KC317 09:45am-12:45pm
KC317 05:00pm-09:00pm
Thursday, May 12
WC243 07:45am-10:00am
WC244 10:00am-12:45pm
Friday, May 13
KC317 09:30am-03:00pm
Pizza Hut, I put my final time in for the break, and my boss also stopped having me work Tuesdays so I could chase early in the week between now and May 10. The final days are rolling in and things are starting to clear up a bit. My last Physics Lab was last Monday, so I could theoretically chase Sunday/Monday/Tuesday now without missing anything vital. I have no exams except for my Physics Final between now and my vacation start, so I am basically set to go.
As for current weather, cool and dreary here in Denver... Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the foothills wet of Denver where up to 8 inches of snow could fall. Down here, mostly rain with some snow possibly mixed in towards the western suburbs... nothing substantial... just a silly reminder that Colorado weather can suck ass sometimes, too! *LOL*
Also wanted to mention the setup in the south for the next couple days. Too far out of my way to shoot for. I'm going to severely limit my chasing over the next 15 days. Drop a dot in downtown Denver and make a circle which goes out 250 miles; that's it. Unless a May 15, 2003 or a May 12, 2004 is being forecasted, I'm not going to marathon much between now and my trip. Assuming those events were to happen in the Sun thru Tues timeframe, I would obviously have the time. Its money I'm holding onto... and I certainly will not sacrifice work hours at this point, either... in fact, I'm crawling as many hours as I can over the next 15 days.
That's basically about it from Denver... just wanted to touch base with the followers of this blog (which seems to be many) and update them on the happenings with me. My excitement is severely mounting ahead of this trip and I am getting very eager to enjoy this time. Next week, I'm gonna take my car in for final maintanence and check ups and I'll be ready to roll! Are you excited yet?
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Friday, April 22, 2005
Still no chase plans on the horizon, but a change in the weather looks to be upcoming.. possibly snow?
NWS Denver's discussion mentions temps falling enough to bring snows to the mountains and foothills, possibly as far down at the Metro area. While accumulations in Denver aren't likely, I could foresee some snow sticking to the ground at higher accumulations. Its nothing I'm gonna lose any sleep over, but its something to keep an eye on just in case. Systems like this tend to spawn storms east of town, so I may get an afternoon run in someplace nearby Sunday or Monday.
In preparation for my Mayathon trip, I have created an excel worksheet which I am going to use to track all my expenses and profits over the course of those 3 weeks. This will help me keep better track of exactly what I spend and what I make doing video, which will help me better prepare myself for later seasons. I'm figuring between gas, food, lodging, and a little extra for various other things (data, oil changes, maintanence), I'll go through about $100 a day on average. This chart and excel's ability to create equations and commands, will let me track my daily spending, average spending, and even some silly things like cost per mile and stuff like that. It'll also allow me to see how much of my savings I'm using. I'm figuring on having between $1500 and $2000 available to me to chase these 3 weeks in which I've saved from driving tips and video stuff. That's all I've saved for this trip, which hopefully I can live off of and not even have to touch my checking accounts at all during the trip. It'll be interesting to see how that works out. I've also added a color-coding system to let me know how each day works (tornado chase, chased w/ no bust, chased w/ bust, travel day/no chase, in Denver/no chase).
I'm fine tuning it and will probably add some more silly stats such as total cost for gas, average gas cost per day, average nightly lodging bill, etc. Included also is my total mileage, too, which I'll document daily (not chase-by-chase). I figure my days start when I get up and end when I go to bed (likely ending with the lodging costs).
That's really it for me in terms of weather goodies right now... going to spend some time this weekend looking over my April 20 video to try and determine whether or not we did have a tornado in that mess of storms we intercepted near Last Chance after dark. Verne's digital still for me is a bit inconclusive; but they're looking for a needle funnel in there someplace. I just don't see it in that frame. I had 2 digital video cameras on this area about the same time AND I was doing long exposure film photos at the same time, so I am HOPING that between those three pieces of media, I'm able to see it. I'm gonna develop the film this evening while I'm driving pizzas and if something looks conclusive to me, I'll post it and leave it up to vote. The question still remains, though, but we're looking into it.
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Thursday, April 21, 2005
My Blog was apparently selected as one of the better blogs by Master Blogs. I'm not too familiar with the award or the site, but I did take a look and it looks like a legitimately run site. Since I was awarded with it, I figured I'd return the favor by posting their decal award thingie on my blog navbar below the blogger button. Go me!
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This type of setup is EXACTLY what I'm hoping for over my Mayathon! Chasing across the country day after day... had this been May 19-May 22 and this EXACT same system was trekking across the country, this is what I'd be doing..
May 19; Would've chased NE Colorado along I-76, stayed overnight probably in Julesburg, CO or Ogallala, NE...
May 20; Assuming I would've played the same as yesterday, I would've sat in SW Nebraska then likely have dropped south and west to play the MCS out of desparation to avoid a bust; then follow it out, staying overnight in Hays.
May 21; I would've been sitting in SE Kansas playing today's setup, chasing my way north and east into the Midwest.
May 22; I would be aiming for southern Ohio and paying a visit to my hometown friends in Circleville, Ohio after the chase day was done.
Yeah, maybe I'll get lucky.. I so badly want to run a system across the US. This setup is nice cause I could afford to do so without leaving chaseable weather in the Plains out to pasture. Chase Ohio, maybe stay a day, then return west into the Great Plains to position for the next one... ooh why can't this be May!
A side note to tomorrow's MOD risk setting up over the Southern Mindwest, I imagine my chase pal Amos Magliocco will be contemplating southern Indiana if conditions hold favorable.. I had my close to home early in the week; he has his now!
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I've posted a pair of logs up, including yesterday's romp into Nebraska... fortunately Nature's late night show saved me from italicizing an entry, so I'm still bustless on the season after 4 chases. Check out the April 20 Log here. Also, I posted the April 19 gentlemen's chase with Verne Carlson as well.
Made it back home shortly after 12:30 last night at just under 600 miles. That trip broke my all-time April mileage record and has set me over 3000 thus far for the season. I've chased more this April than any previous April before and with that, scored my first April tornadoes of my life. Unloading the car will likely be the last time I see any case action for the next couple weeks as I really have to go into saving mode for my Mayathon vacation. My chase partner for yesterday, Jon, and I talked about him coming along with me over the Mayathon trip. While I'm not entirely sure he'd come out, it would be a HUGE financial break to have a full-time partner in vehicle with me throughout the trip. Cutting my expenses in half would be HUGE and will make for an easier trip. Seeing as we've both served time in Ohio at some points also helps as I have my far-fetched goal to chase a system into Ohio this year.
A potentially interesting day in store for Eastern Kansas and Eastern Oklahoma today, but I haven't looked too hard into details. First off, I'm tired as hell and was about 30 seconds shy of calling in for my morning shift today just to sleep a couple extra hours. Remembering why I'm working like a madman, I came in early instead. Next Thursday (a week from today) marks my last chance to get a full paycheck prior to my Mayathon, which is slated to begin two weeks from Monday. I need to work as much as I can; and I'm sure I'll see a week close to 70 hours between now and then.
That's really all to report at this stage... aside from afternoon DCVZ action close to home, I'm probably gonna try and resist chase tempations, even if one falls on a Sunday. Sunday chases are gonna have to be hyped pretty good for me to pull one of those. I am getting too close to May 10 right now and I have to keep myself from over doing it before then! 3000 miles, 5 tornadoes, and 4 chases, I'm good for a couple weeks! :o)
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Wednesday, April 20, 2005
The Colorado gang and I are sitting at the Holiday Inn Express in McCook, NE... I, personally, am not as excited as I could be... having some doubts, but I think we're about as good in position as we can be right now. Gonna hang here in McCook for a bit and see what happens..
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OUCH! SPC bitch slaps us all! The 5% tornado potential still remains, which is the ultimate pot of gold, but they are skittish about the cloud deck which remains overhead. I think a more eastward shift of our target is warrented due to the clouds. Verne has mentioned shooting east out of Fort Morgan, and I'm thinking the same, moving out towards an earlier target mention near Yuma, not surprising me if we end up in far West Kansas/Southern Nebraska. We'll see how it pans out... right now, just awaiting for my 11:30 deadline which lies less than an hour from now.. we'll be on the road shortly thereafter.
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Six years ago today, 2 high school students shot and killed 13 fellow students, as well as injuring many more at Columbine High School in Littleton, Colorado... while the day has passed into the back of many people's minds, this day still leaves a heavy tear in my heart as I remember that tragic day... today as I chase the High Plains, pinned to my lucky #81 Redskins jersey will be a 'Never Forgotten' pin as my tribute to those who were affected on this day six years passed...
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Here's to hoping the clouds clear..
1km visible satellite showing a thick cloud deck stretching from the foothills and Palmer Divide all the way into Nebraska and Kansas. You can basically overlay the SPC MOD risk on top of these clouds. If they don't go, neither will our storms. I think they'll be cleared in the next few hours; which at the worst may delay initiation for a couple hours. That's fine by me; gives us more time to position and grab some lunch! Althought that Wendy's in Sterling is a biotch to find!
Glancing at the ETA looking at 0z Thursday (12 hours), it does show a healthy amount of helicity over our target area; closing in on 400 in the 3k and over 100 in the 1k. Cape values are over 1000 and pushing 2500 further north and east. The 500mb winds get stronger throughout the day, maxing out at about 40kts over Northeast Colorado right about 0z tonight. A SFC low is forecasted to be over southeastern Weld county about 0z, which when sat beneath the CAPE and SRH values, would keep my target area near Sterling; moving north and east from there as storms fire. Temperatures are a factor today which goes right back to cloud cover and fog. Clear those out, get some heating and hopefully bump those temps up a bit. The ETA is running dewpoints in the upper 40s (NE Colorado) to mid 50s (SW Nebraska). I'm not thinking anywhere in the target area will see temps at 70 or higher as we are on the cool side of the front and most of the warm temps are being held way to the south. Mid 60s at best for temps today with TDs in the low 50s.
My plan of attack; leave campus at 11:30am and make trails to Sterling. From there, we can reanalyze data, check our barings, and make adjustments if we need to. With the clouds hanging around this morning, it'll take a couple hours this morning for the clouds to clear, which oughta keep initiation at bay for a couple extra hours. That gives us at least an hour or two to hang in Sterling and if convection fires around us, make our way to a target storm and go from there. Verne Carlson will be armed with Baron WXworx, so we'll have live field coverage there. May also put a nowcaster to work for us this afternoon as well. Going to be a fun afternoon!
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And its even nicer to see slap a 5% and a MOD risk right over your target area! Now I just have to make it verify today!
Yesterday afternoon's quick 112 miles was a nice way tp kill a few hours; a brief bought with hail and a nice barber pole LP prevented the season's first bust from occuring yesterday.
Today, big things are possible! I'm gonna do a huge analysis from school, ut just wanted to lay out some preliminary plans. When I lasted chatted with Verne, we were going to meet someplace in Brighton about noon. I'm thinking Sterling is a good target for several reasons... first, it keeps up in the middle of what I think are two potential tornado areas; one obviously in and near the SPC 5%; the other sitting along the front as it moves north, which will end up along the I-76 corridor as the day moves on. Either way, I think those threat areas will merge over the I-76 area. I am trying to ignore the MOD risk itself as it seems to be more concerned with large hail. In fact, parts of the 5% are in the slight risk area to the south, including a point south of Akron, possibly near Last Chance; going northwest to about Fort Morgan, northward to the the triple point of CO, WY, and NE, then zipping off into Nebraska and back along the KS/NE border back into CO. I think Sterling keeps up in range to play storms that develop more in Eastcentral Colorado and move into the risk area.
More updates later... I think initiation will be held off just slightly because of all the fog and cirrus around apparent in satellite images. Either way, a noon departure from Brighton oughta be plenty early!
More later on the first MOD RISK chase of the season!
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Tuesday, April 19, 2005
Gonna chase the Palmer Divide in Douglas and Elbert counties for a couple hours between shifts... can't ignore the setup and Denver's latest HWO!
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Finally! Enough of the 12z ETA is out for me to play..
The 500mb hasn't updated to the 36 hours yet, but in glancing at the trends out to 24 hours, it looks as if a 500mb jet max will knife into NE Colorado during the day on Wednesday. This will obviously aid with the upper level dynamics a bit. The models seem to hint at the front not making it too far south, which actually holds me sticking true to the I-76 cooridor from about Fort Morgan eastward and northward. Some of the values have slipped away a bit since last night's runs, including a narrow band of 50s 1km SRH right along where the front is forecasted to be at 0z tomorrow. The 3km SRH has a small bulls-eye of 250 sitting in NE Colorado along the same band as the 1km. CAPE values struggle to make 1000 over most of the areas, and I feel this is due largely in part to the cooler temps behind the front. Theta-E values over 300 are pretty common east of the Front Range, higher as you get further and further east. Depoints are closing in on 50 with a tounge moving westward over the Northeast Plains, so some advection will be occuring.
With this run, I would say the best conditions come together around the Akron/Yuma area somewhere along US Hwy 36 east of Fort Morgan. That's about 90 minutes drive time to Akron; 2 hours drive time to Yuma. An easy target if this forecast holds. Temps are my biggest concern at this point. The front will also play as it moves north and probably undercuts storms with the cooler SFC air. We're gonna have to play on the warm side of the front and hope we can catch the storms in a narrow window as the interact with the boundry. I would still anticipate very photogenic storms and a successful, non-bust chase. A couple landspoutish type tornadoes seem likely given the amount of helicity around the front. Will have to play with the 0z ETA tonight and see how things look in the morning when I can play with the Platteville sounding in the forecasting lab.
Verne Carlson is planning to chase tomorrow along with Jon Merage and possibly Tom Dulong. If that's the case, we'll be equipped with two GPS and two WXworx systems, so we'll have all the data we could want at our finger tips for tomorrow's game!
Stay tuned...
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Good morning! As promised, I'm back to give my analysis for tomorrow! First of all, let me say there's something to be said about targeting an area not even on the scope one day, then waking up the following morning to see a big ol' bulls-eye over your target area! While SPC's 25% is shifted a bit further north and east of where I said, the bubble does hinge right about Sterling! Not too shabby, I must say! NWS Denver also has mention of severe in their AFD from this morning; mentioning how severe storms are possible tomorrow; tornatic storms a possibility along the front where helicity values will be higher. I'm waiting on College of Dupage to get the new ETA in as I'm still looking at last night's data. Just deciminating the AFD, I've got two potential areas in mind for tomorrow's targets.. along the front, and along any outflow boundries from tonight's convection. Either of those will act as a focal mechanism for convective development. I do concern myself with the cooler air and the possibility that storms may get undercut by the front as it lifts northward. This is causing me to want to play south of the front. Also worth mentioning is the SFC low (lower cased it for ya, Amos) and how it'll create a convergence zone right along the DCVZ. Still haven't heard it mentioned by anyone else, but I've kept it in the back of my mind.
On a final note before I kill off some time before the new ETA; I'm screwed today. Unless I can find coverage to drive pizzas tonight, I'm gonna have to hope something develops over top of me. NWS Denver does have severe wording across the entire area from the foothills eastward, including southwest Denver. It's very possible that storms developing in the mountains will drift into the Urban Corridor and hopefully have some severe potential as they move over top of me. In which case, I'll at least be able to enjoy a small show, which hopefully is a teaser for tomorrow.
Chase plans for tomorrow; I have my forecasting lab in the morning, which will heavily be spent analysing severe potential across the NE Plains. After lab, I work a couple hours in the computer labs (to finalize any details) before my former Map Use instructor, Jon Van De Grift meets me and we'll be on the road. I'm figuring to be on my way out of Denver by noon, which should give us ample time to base ourselves. I'll probably put all my setup in the trunk and get it together once we're out. Since this is such a local chase, we'll be back in Denver around midnight(ish), give or take an hour. This dramatically reduces the amount of crap I have to pack, leaving me with a laptop setup and photography gear. No clothes or sleeping stuff!
Anywoo, off I go.. I'll be back later to analyse the 12z ETA shortly...
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Monday, April 18, 2005
Quick glances at the newest ETA still keep good hope alive for storms to fire in NE Colorado. I haven't really done a full analysis yet, but just a glance at a few products, I'm still pretty content with the April setup nearby...
I'll do a full analysis in the morning after I can check out local AFDs and SPC's Day 2. See if they're thinking the same I am... I would like to see a mention in either and/or both.. I'm already sitting at about 90% of leaving, although my exact target seems a bit large. I'm aiming for the Interstate Triangle (from I-76 south to I-70, east to the CO border). A lot is banking on how far that front sags south before it stalls out; and of course whether or not it backs northward again. The quick look at the ETA actually has some help along the front range, but some serious CIN in an area right over Denver. Will coordinate with SPC's Day 2 and Denver's AFD in the morning and do some fine tuning.. I still think NE Colorado is the best target for Wednesday; maybe a bit of sliding of my target bubble to include parts of west Kansas; Southwest Nebraska, Southern Wyoming, etc... but am still banking on someplace in the Interstate Triangle.
See ya in the morning!
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A couple added notes in regards to Wednesday and the upcoming weeks...
First of all, I get access to Gempack and GARP here on campus Wednesday morning while in the forecasting lab. I may sneak in an hour early before lab just so I can crank out the DIA forecast, then play with things (and soundings) to see how good the potential is.
Second, the weeks ahead; namely the weeks leading up til Mayathon 2005! I need to remember not to blow my financial wad prior to May 10. I'm figuring on about $500 every week I chase ($1500 total); which I'm guessing is probably much lower than what it'll actually come out to be. In any case, I've got cash set aside and some coming in which I need to keep stashed til May, otherwise I may be spending the back-half of that vacation skimming hours at work, which may lead me to missing a few good days. I've got all my equipment and the car's set (probably $100 in maintanence prior to trip since I've already logged nearly 4000 miles on the recent oil change 3 weeks ago! *LOL*). Other than a few tapes and batteries, I'm ready to roll and obviously very eager to get going. I'll chase any afternoon I can in NE Colorado, especially with partner in my car since I could literally chase on $25 sticking that close to home on 350 miles/tank.
Anywoo, setups like Wednesday make me happy this time of year since I can be up and back by dinner. I haven't talked much about the DCVZ for Wednesday as I'm not entirely sure things will be as favorable this far west... however, I've said that before and been burned bad, so I'm definately not discounting it.. I guess I'm just waiting for the Colorado experience at NWS Boulder to mention it before I jump on it. Just for the record, though, its in my head!
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Still eyeing Wednesday as a potential chase day in Northeast Colorado. Here was my analysis of the ETA from 12z today also posted on Stormtrack's Thread regarding the April 20 potential...
Glancing at the latest ETA runs, NE Colorado still looks pretty good. The 500mb does show the LOW over Idaho with good difluence over the NE Colorado with nice speeds over the area. The 850 winds are nice as well in terms of direction sheer over NE Colorado with winds from the SE. Flow from the southwest at 500mb over flow from the southeast at 850 not only means great directional and speed shear, but upslope as well.
Temps progged to be in the 60s and 70s across NE Colorado with a nose of 50s TDs moving in over the area as well over the SFC low. LIs in the -4 range, so definately nothing wrong with instability. CAPE values are good for the High Plains with values over 1000J/kg and approaching 1500J/kg in some areas in extreme Northeast Colorado.
3km SRH values are at least 200 all over NE Colorado with values approaching 400 over the Sterling/Julesburg areas, sweeping back along I-80 in southern Nebraska. Low level SRH at 1km is only about 50 over the Northcentral/Northeast part of the state with values climbing into the 200s over the Julesburg area in the far northeast corner of the state. Not much CINH over the area either.
As it stood right now, I'd likely head up I-76 for at least Fort Morgan, maybe even as far as Sterling on Wednesday afternoon. The ETA breaks out precip in a bulls-eye over an area from about Fort Collins eastward towards Fort Morgan. I would think the better storms would be east where the better instability and shear would be, so at 48 hours out, I would say someplace I-76 between Fort Morgan and Sterling.
Obviously this shifts my target from Southcentral Kansas to something a little closer to home. My patience in the models getting ahold of the upper winds is slowly diminishing, which leads me to think that they'll likely be too weak at 500mb to aid with good chasable storms. This patience issue is also due in part to how the models are forecasting my own backyard... it's hard to turn away from something so close to chase someplace so far that doesn't look near as good. My only concern would be the high temps on Wednesday as they are forecasted to be in the low to mid 60s as opposed to the 70s which we've been enjoying lately, however 70s are progged in the extreme eastern and northeastern part of the state..
Time off from work is pretty well secured as I covered enough to max out my allotted hours. If I were to work Wednesday night, I would go over, so I have to take it off now anyway. Since its so close to home and I can make Julesburg in less than 3 hours, I'll probably aim to be on the road by noon and shoot up I-76 to wherever my target holds out to be. I'll keep an eye on things over the next 24 to 36 hours and see how the runs trend things out.
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May be worth noting that a chance for severe storms has also developed in Northeast Colorado for Wednesday. A frontal system is expected to pass through NE Colorado on Tuesday, then retreat northward again on Wednesday actin as the focal mechanism. Low level moisture is expected to move into the area. With help from a potential Denver Cyclone, we could have some added convergence, although I think the action will fall along the northward-moving frontal system. CAPE values of 1000-1500J/kg are nosing in behind the system into NE Colorado along with a small tounge of theta-E. Some 50s TDs are also nosing in as well, which is more than sufficient for storms here in NE Colo. Good shear also appears to be forecasted for the area, so severe storms are a possibility with the potential for landspoutish type tornadoes. There's a big ol' bulls-eye of 400 3km SRH right over NE Colorado on Wednesday as well with some 50/100 1km over the same areas...
While I was hosting Kansas as my target on Wednesday, I may elected to play it closer to home Wednesday and see how NE Colorado shapes up in the forecasts over the next 24 hours. In the meantime, I'll step up a level as I've sent out coverage for Wednesday night. With a show this close to home, I could get away with leaving at noon or 1pm.
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Sunday, April 17, 2005
Been bustin' my ass this morning knocking out apartment chores; kitchen cleaning, laudry, taking out the trash, etc. Also gonna run my car to the car wash for a interior cleaning and maybe a hose down.
Today's chasing seems to be resting on how much I can get done and how soon. My last loads of laundry are spinning away in the dryers with about 10 minutes left. Figure a few minutes to fold and stash. Run the trash out on my way to my car then go for a vacuum. I should be done by 2:00p CDT, but the best chasing seems to be in WEST KANSAS dammit! I should've gotten up mucho eariler to knock this shit out and go. Although I could probably still make it if I hauled ass. But, I have my head up another day's forecast...
Wednesday... April 20th... a day for Littleton area residents and many graduating high school students that will never be forgotten because of the evil which revealed itself to the students of Columbine High School. A day for which my life was changed forever... memories of that day and the fear and hatred has passed, but the 20th day of the 4th month will always make my heart sad. And oddly enough, it's usually been the day of my first chase (or within a couple days). This season, I hunch it'll be the first major chase of 2005...
The models have been hosting ideas of chase plans for many in the past several days, and here we are, four days out, and those hopes have grown a bit in chasers' minds. I, too, played it off as something rather small, but in the past 24 hours, I've felt my eyes grow a bit at the prospects of being in Kansas once again in the middle of the week. Chris Sanner's post in Stormtrack brings to light good news for what is being felt as the only handicap for Wednesday; the weak winds. His jog around area AFDs has bought to light the potential that the models are UNDER forecasting the winds. If this is the case, and winds increase, so does the shear. Directional shear seems to be fine, its the speed shear. Models are showing 500mb winds at 20kts, which leads to storms that cannot separate updrafts and downdrafts, thus giving you a monster HP collasping in on itself. If those winds can kick up a bit, it should allow for the updrafts to tilt away from the downdrafts, sustaining a classic supercell structure with a good possibility for tornadoes.
This, to me, feels like a major jumping-the-gun syndrom, but I have a hunch which I am gonna look very deep into over the next 48 hours. The midweek chase presents some scheduling challenges; but not as bad as it would if I were to take off Tuesday. My forecasting lab would be the only thing I would really have to work around... as everything else should be pretty simple. If things look good in the morning tomorrow, I'll probably send out a coverage email at work to see if I can get covered for Wednesday's shifts. I'm not entirely confident of this setup just yet, but I think as the next 24 hours moves along, things will start to clear themselves a bit... and I have a feeling I'll be wearing #81 in Southcentral Kansas on Wednesday...
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Saturday, April 16, 2005
My excitement for a Sunday chase in the Panhandles has significantly fallen away. I guess it's just as well as I have enough home things to do to keep me busy all day Sunday (laundry, cleaning, that sort of stuff). However, there appears to be a slim shot of an Eastern Colorado/Western Kansas chase Tuesday evening. While I'm already working Tuesday, I could possibly skim out around noonish and fire out east to Burlington in time for a late afternoon initiation.
Here's what I'm seeing from the 12z ETA for 84hrs out (0z Wed)... at 500mb, southwest flow aloft with good divergence over the areas east of the Rockies; winds in Eastern Colorado are in the 20-30 range. Theta-E at 850 shows a nice max in Central Kansas with a little tounge of 320s pushing into Central Colorado, arching back toward the Denver area. A LOW is forecasted to be in extreme southeast Colorado with 850 winds in Northeast Colorado out of the northeast at about 5 to 10, which gives some weak upslope over the area. SBCAPE follows the theta-E tounge into Eastern Colorado with values upwards of 1000J/kg. Again, the biggest concentration of CAPE is over Central Kansas with values over 2500J/kg. 3km helicity values pushing 150 to 200[m 2/s 2] while 1km values are hardly evident. On a final note, the ETA does break out precip over the Denver area and areas to the south and east. The biggest concern... temperatures; I overlooked it on the first glance, but cooler air may filter down and kill off convective chances in a hurry.
While this is a long way out, it does bare watching as perhaps our first chance for severe weather over the Eastern Plains. Lot of things could (and likely will) change before Tuesday actually arrives, but I'm eyeing this as the first chance to chase Colorado's Eastern Plains!
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Friday, April 15, 2005
An added post in regards to Sunday... NWS Amarillo issued this HWO this afternoon at 1:00pm CDT... a perfect scenario if the setup holds..
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A SERIES OF MINOR UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS TO THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAIL AND DAMAGINGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
I'll have to keep an eye on things over the next 24 hours to see how that pans out. If the TX Panhandle looks like a valid target for Sunday, I'm there.. no work, no school... and with a partner, could EASILY be back late Sunday night!
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The 12z ETA raised a few eyebrows today... and for more detail on what it said, Amos Magliocco pretty well nails it.. give his blog a read for the more meteorological aspect of it... because of 80 million things going on, I'm likely gonna be sitting out many of the chasable days in the coming days... that is, IF they pan out.
Sunday: Fine to chase as long as I can be back before Monday morning.
Monday: If I chase Monday, I would have to be back Tuesday at 1p to make up the Physics Lab I'd miss. Aside from that, I have no scheduled work obligations I'd have to worry about.
Tuesday: If I can get covered for work both on campus and driving pizzas, I can chase Tuesday. This happens if I don't chase Monday and get my Physics Lab out of the way.
Wednesday: Missing all day on campus, would have to pull some strings for my morning Forecasting Lab, but other than that, would be free to venture.
Thursday: Pretty much the same as Tuesday; work coverage for campus and driving pizzas.
Friday: Same as Thursday; harder to get out of pizza driving.
Saturday: Off all day, but have a closing shift Saturday which is very hard to get covered.
My best days would be the same as the last couple; Sunday/Monday... maybe Tuesday. Middle of the week gets tricky and work gets thicker, so it's a bit more costly. I'll have to keep up to date on the forecasts so I can make appropiate plans if need be... if I sense a May 15, 2003 in the TX Panhandle, I'll be giving 2 hours notice everywhere and sprinting off for Amarillo!
In the meantime, I'm gonna upgrade my alert to SLIGHT as I am now eyeballing various days in the near future...
Stay tuned...
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Thursday, April 14, 2005
Just doing some website touchups. The side navbar is getting a couple buttons added to link to various organizations I belong to, including the two local stations in Denver and Wichita I shoot for as well as my affiliation with BNVN. I've also included buttons for Skywarn and TESSA as those are the two main storm chase organizations I belong to.
Included at the very bottom of the navbar is a customized Redskins button I created which has two of the all-time greatest Skins at the bottom; Darrell Green and Art Monk. I created this button to show support for my NFL football team, and to add to my Redskins legacy which surrounds my chasing personality. Art Monk's number (81) is the one which is on the jersey that you see me wearing across the Plains.
No major chase news to speak of. I have two more Monday Physics labs upcoming, and neither of which I can miss. That restricts my chase time on Sunday and Monday. However, it is possible to make up the lab on that Tuesday if need be, but I'm only going to put myself in that situation for a good setup, which right now, doesn't look too promising looking ahead. Right now, I'm hiding from Nature as I hurry to knock out the last of my semester early so I can attempt to chase a few more times before May with only a Physics class to cater around.
Sunny and 60s today... Denver's winter hopefully ended with the melting of the leftovers from this weekend. Spring is here I would say... hopefully it stays.
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Wednesday, April 13, 2005
Scott Roberts from KWCH emailed me this afternoon to tell me the aired video clip of my tornadoes is up... I figured I'd share it..
APRIL 10, 2005 TORNADO VIDEO - AIRED ON CBS 12, KWCH in WICHITA, KANSAS
Verne Carlson has emailed me and the rest of the CO group in regards to CPC's highlight of a severe storm risk in the Central Plains on April 18 and 19 (Mon and Tues). Too early for me to consider that, but I've already picked up a couple extra hours over the weekend (not for sneaking out to chase, but just cause I'm closing in on my May vacation), so I'm sort of set. I'd hate to ask for yet another Tuesday off from campus (third in a row), but obviously if it was looking good by Friday, I'd definately consider it. I think something this week would have to be pretty big or very close by (West Kansas would be great again) to get me on the road for a third week in a row. In any case, I'm not going to jump ship and bump my alert status just yet, but its worth mentioning that I do have the situation in the back of my head just in case the models start going nuts. What I'm starting to notice, the last few systems have gradually turned to more of a Spring-like setup. This passed on over the weekend was a dryline chase as opposed to the low chase we had the week before. It's slowly starting to come around...
Speaking of models and forecasting.. I also wanted to brag how on I've been thus far in the season.. with two chases under my belt, I've found myself in good choice for targets, even as I abandoned the April 5 target for the dryline.. here's my stats..
April 4, I targeted Dodge City for the 5th: several tornadoes (cold-core landspouts) were reported to the West of DDC; Verne and I played the dryline instead and watched as our original target lit up!
April 8, I went on Stormtrack and predicted a target area between Scott City and Ness city on K-96; probably the Dighton area to be exact. Obviously that turned to gold! Although I preached I was going to play the low, it turned out that the low didn't move as much during the day as it was suppose to, so my target verified, just for different reasons..
And not storm chasing related... a forecasting brag from my lab this morning. We were forecasting high temps for today; the ETA was going for 62, GFS going for 70, and the NDFD was shooting 68. With snow cover still hanging around, I aimed real low. Part of this in a gamble cause I was 11 points out of first and needed a huge jump; but part of this due to yesterday's temperature play-out. Using yesterday's variance from the models and today's similar setup with less snow cover, I elected to go for 56 degrees while everyone else played in the mid 60s. Today's high temp at DIA... 56 degrees! SCORE! BTW, I shot for a 37 low tonight and a high of 64 tomorrow!
So yeah, I'm on a forecasting hot streak lately.. :o) Been kind of nice to see that happening!
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Tuesday, April 12, 2005
Whew.. a chance to sit down and relax... taking off work this afternoon was a brilliant idea.. I was able to sleep nearly 11 hours! Very much needed. Looking ahead, nothing too exciting in the works til the weekend, which means a chance to regroup, clean up, and get back to normal. April has already served to be the busiest April I've had in terms of chasing; in less than 1 week, I logged over 2500 miles; 5 tornadoes; 3 live media reports; several aired videos; and a new alternator. Not including the alternator, I've managed to keep my chase budget below $200 for those 2500 miles. Chasing in my vehicle with partners is going to be hard to refuse at that kind of budget.
Checking out everyone's logs from yesterday, I'm content with our decision to head home as opposed to chasing northeasy Kansas. Aside from Hollingshead/ Magliooco's encounter, there didn't appear much to see; at least in terms of what we saw the day before. As for the trip home, a small detour in WaKeeney was the only blizzard-related travel issue as the interstate was open and dry from Colby to Denver! In fact, it was about Stratton before you really saw any proof of an actual blizzard. When we got into Denver, snow was still on the ground, but apparently 2/3 of it had already melted. Some remains this morning as well, but the constant sound of water splashing on the wood indicates to me that the remaing 1/3 will be gone shortly, too.
As for the last week, I have come up with a list of lessons; things I've learned, which I'm glad I figured out before my May-a-Thon..
- A partner can chase comfortably in my car with the front passenger seat gone.
- Chasing with a partner makes a HUGE difference financially.
- The money I put into my car over the off-season was worth every penny.
- Baron WXWorx is a wonderful tool to have!
- Kansas is my new favorite state!
- Verizon Wireless does get better service in the Plains. Only a few times was I not in service.
- Pratt has a quick, resonable, and reliable mechanic at Mike's Repair!
- AAA is still worth every penny!
- Keisling looks creepy with a shaved head. He says he looks like a wannabe Brice Willis! I agree!
- A dash cam isn't as useful as I would like; I think I'll stick to holding the camera myself so I can tripod video better.
- The Canon A85 digital camera was THE BEST equipment purchase I made!
- The Jotto Desk in unbelievably perfect! Worth every penny!
- Two video cameras may be a pain, but very nice to have!
- I can still chase a day on less than 3 hours of sleep!
- Hays, KS is still the best place on earth to stop except its missing Denny's.
- Delorme GPS and Street Atlas was the second best purchase of the off-season!
- The trackball was the best little gadget I picked up!
I'm sure my luxury of chasing with partners will run short at some point, especially during May-a-Thon when I'll be running around for days at a time and likely will not be able to partner up easily with someone. Hopefully I'll have a chance to bring someone responsible along at least for my chases up til May, where I'm literally only going through my weekend tip money. Not once did I have to use my debit card in the last 2500 miles.
Well, time to recoup, remount my seat, unmount the Jotto, and prepare for at least a few days off. Between now and May, I'm going to try and restrict my chasing to Sunday/Monday chases where I can be back in time for my evening shifts Tuesday. Getting out of one shift on campus isn't too bad when I can make up for it ahead of time and not lose any hours like I did with this passed chase. Outside of that, I've set myself up exactly how I wanted; some pointers I need to fix, some time on the road to get back into things, and a cure for my SDS. I'm ready for May now!
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Monday, April 11, 2005
Mike Nelson aired my Trego County, KS video this evening.. landed Amos Magliocco on the local news as the video ended with me panning out with Amos's truck in the foreground..
Wrapping up my log from Sunday with final links... I have a couple of people I'm waiting to post reports so I can include their links.. aside from that, I'm pretty well finished with the entry. Some minor stuff to include later, but not tonight...
Going to sleep long and hard tonight.. as for the coming week, no chase plans in the works for me... got enough school and work to keep me busy for the next couple weeks, but my SDS is gone and am beyond happy with what I packed yesterday! Again, mega thanks for all the help from Scott Roberts! Great chasing with the gang from Colorado and running into various others on the road!
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Made it home safely! I-70 reopened shortly after we took a detour in WaKeeney due to the closure in Kansas. We split from Verne, Jon, and Tom in Limon on a gas fill-up and I dropped Kyle off and am home. Mike Nelson from Denver's Channel 7 emailed me to tell me he used the video on earlier news casts and will be using it again at 10! Anywoo, gonna grab some grub and relax the rest of the evening; doing some website updates at some point...
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In Hays right now mooching Wifi from the Econolodge (which Kyle and I stayed last night). We see the tornado watch to our Northeast, but have elected to pass on it. We're too far behind right now to catch it we feel.. that and a few of us have to be back in Colorado in the morning, so it makes it a tight squeeze to get back in time if we chased Northeast into what would likely be Southeast Nebraska or possibly western Iowa/Missouri.
We're packing up and going to head west, hoping that I-70 gets reopened while enroute. We'll see how things shape up.. if not, I imagine we'll hang in Goodland til they open, so we'll see!
Ciao!
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Hey from Hays! We're awaiting Verne, Jon, and Tom to meet us at the Econolodge that Kyle and I are staying. We're going to grab some lunch.
Last night, I wrote up my report and posted it this morning... check it out here.
Right now, we are in debate to chase eastward or head home. We are being baited by the MD that SPC has issued, but it looks like the best chances will be well north and east of where we are, which makes for a very long haul back into Denver. We're awaiting the gang to get here to look over things and decide. Its kind of like Vegas, though.. hit it while its hot! :o)
I'd say we're probably 75%/25% (head home/chase east), as I think we all were expecting to head home. I'd bet had we not seen shit yesterday, we'd be more compelled to take this second chance, but we'd be chasing the complete opposite direction, and I'm not sure we're mentally prepared to add another 5 hours heading home. Again, we'll check into it.
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Sunday, April 10, 2005
Good morning from Hays... we are about to shoot south and west towards the low which is moving into Southwest Kansas. We're likely going to converge with Chris and the gang from CSU near Dodge City. We're likely going to head out here shortly.. Verne is with Jon in his truck and has installed WX Works on my laptop for us to have in our vehicle. We will be set to go.
More on a updated forecast later if we can.
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Cold winds while pumping gas gave me a second wind... we drove to Hays and met with Verne in the gang... see you in a couple hours...
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WiFi! You gotta love it. Anywoo, it's 3:10am MDT (4:10am CDT) and we've arrived safely in Goodland, Kansas. My chase partner, Kyle Kluge, is inside the Phillips 66 taking a stretch among other things. We're just gonna nap out here in the car and make our way to Hays early in the morning where Verne Carlson, Tom Dulong, and Jon Merage are at the Holiday Inn this evening. While the temptation to drive the 140 miles now exists, I'd rather sleep a few hours now since I know we'll be in Hays within 2 hours. Trip was smooth getting out of Denver; getting out of work early not so smooth. I managed to skim an hour off my work time, but not the entire 2 and a half like I was hoping. Good news, though, I at least made some cash to get me through this venture. Some heavy flakes fell on us in Aurora, but we were totally clear of all precip by the time we hit Limon. Anywoo, wrapping this up from Goodland for a nap where I'll catch up tomorrow. Love this mooching of Wifi!
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Saturday, April 09, 2005
From SPC's New Day 2... encouraging news for those of us chasing Kansas tomorrow...
A SFC LOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS SE CO WITH A WARM OR QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO NRN KS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY BE ONGOING NORTH OF THE SFC LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SE CO AND WRN KS. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND EXPAND EWD INTO NRN KS AND SERN NEB. ISOLATED NEW CONVECTION COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN WRN OK AND SRN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WRN KS AND WRN OK FOR 21Z SUNDAY SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 55 KT. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. THE BEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD EXIST NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN WRN KS...NRN KS AND SE NEB AND WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS SRN KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY IN WRN AND NRN KS WHERE SFC WINDS WILL BE BACKED ENHANCING THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
I'm about an hour from leaving campus... from here, I'll brave the Saturday crowds at Wal-Mart for some last minute items, then head home to shape up the car, maybe catch a nap, then head off to drive pizzas. From there, I'm gonna scram out of there as quickly as possible and pick up my chaser partner, Kyle at the 40th and Pena Park 'n' Ride where he'll leave his car and we'll haul ass east trying to stay ahead of the blizzard.
This is probably the last update for today as I'll be running errands, sleeping, and/or working. Later today, I imagine I'll go on 'SEVERE' alert as I'll be heading out straight from work tonight.
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Still uncertain as to the fate of me in terms of where and what I'll be tomorrow, I'm still planning as if I'll be chasing Kansas. With the new loop of the ETA/NAM in, I've run a quick analysis which I've posted to Stormtrack. Here's my analysis..
Glancing at the new ETA (COUGHNAMCOUGH), I'm in agreement with a shift of the target area. Several bulls-eyes develop at the SFC near the Salina area in response to the positioning of the low. While not as tilted as previous runs, it doesn't show as much stacking as I feared.
CAPE values in the area exceed 1500J/kg. SRH values struggle to near 100 both in 30km and 10km. ETA for 0z Monday has posted a 59.8 TD near Salina, which means some pooling for high 50s TDs in the area at 0z. A bulls-eye of -4 LI's is centered above all this as well. Looking further up, shear isn't the greatest, but its still there. Winds from the south at 50kts at 500 with SSE winds at 850 shooting 25kts. The vorticity near back near the low will enhance low level rotation and hopefully aid in tornado development.
With this run, I would adjust myself a bit further to the north, maybe not as far as Salina, but probably keeping along I-70. This way, I can still drop south quickly and be in position in case the low maintains a more southery track along the border.
I am still awaiting a reply in regards to the email I sent out this morning. I have a feeling that I'll stay behind if a majority of our group elects to do the same. As early as it is in the season, I don't think I'll kick myself too hard for passing on tornadoes for 20+ inches of snow in the Metro area. It's a tough choice right now!
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I discounted the winter storm potential way to early, as it now looks as if we could seriously be digging out from as much as 1 to 2 feet here in the Metro area with as much as 30 inches in the foothills. This has definately come into play with Sunday's chase plans as Winter Storm Watches are in effect all the way out to Goodland. While I personally am able to stay out through Tuesday, there are many in our group that cannot, and I'm afraid they're going to have a very difficult time getting back Sunday night. Here is a copy of the email I sent to the group this morning after quickly looking over things...
Good morning gang!
No sense in pretending anymore... The Front Range looks like they're
gonna get socked. Zone forecasts for areas in the western parts of
town are showing upwards of 20 inches. Deer Trail and Limon are also
approaching the 12 inch range. All you needing to be back by early
Monday are likely going to have problems getting back if you're able
to do so at all. NWS offices have Winter Storm Watches all the way
out to Goodland for accumulating and blowing snow through Monday,
which means the likelyhood of the interstate being shut down due to
any number of conditions is rather high.
As for the chasing prospects, latest model runs indicate the potential
for a very rapid development into a squall line. The low seems to
want to slow and vertically stack itself as a ridge developing over
the Great Lakes is going to greatly hinder the low's movement eastward
throughout the day. This slowing will keep the severe weather threat
a hair bit further west on Monday, but probably not in chasable
terrain.
Mesoscale conditions for tomorrow remain decent; good CAPE, theta-E
axis, meager, but enough moisture, and good laspe rates, however, wind
fields and shear are going to likely pull the same course of action
they did for Verne and I on Tuesday and probably give us one helluva
squall line. Early stages of convection may yield some tornatic
possibilities, and albeit, our target area near the low likely stands
the best tornado chances, but unfortunately, the nature of the wind
fields above may not allow for much time before things merge together
and take off. SPC indicates a fast moving squall as well.
And on a personal note; I'd be lying if I didn't say this snow storm
wasn't tempting me to stick around. Upwards of 20+ inches are
starting to get hard to ignore. That and my late departure from
Denver this evening may be as this storm is beginning, and
unfortunately it wouldn't take much to make the drive a dangerous one.
While my chase partner and I are still planning on going, there is a
distinct possibility that we may leave ourselves behind. My partner,
like many of you, also has to be back in Denver early Monday, and
while I would also go out on a limb to say that many things may be
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