This morning's ETA/NAM has merged a bit with the GFS and has the low over Southern Kansas as opposed to the Northern Texas Panhandle. That's good news for me as it looks like the Oklahoma Panhandle will see the best action tomorrow. Still a lot of uncertainty and doubts about tomorrow's setup as there are many things left to be determined.
At 36hrs, the ETA/NAM has the 500mb low sitting over extreme Southeast Colorado right near the CO/KS border. Winds over the area at that level run between 30 and 50kts out of the SW, which is sufficient for that level. Further down at 850, the ETA/NAM apparently has the low sitting right over Beaver, OK. Theta-E wraps up ahead of the dryline at that level with decent values over the far eastern portions of the TX/OK Panhandles as well as extreme Southern Kansas. Dewpoints at this level are between 14 and 15C.
Down near the SFC, temps looks to be in the 80s w/ TDs ranging from the low to mid 50s upwards of 60 plus in areas further east. If winds at the SFC can advect some of those richer TDs into a pool near the low, we could find ourselves in decent shape. Also worth noting that the ETA/NAM is showing a buldge in the dryline in the Northern Texas Panhandle which could serve an interesting purpose tomorrow. CAPE values in the area run about 2000J/kg with SRH forecasted to be decent in the vicinity of the front in the OK Panhandle.
What all this means... there is definately potential with this system. I'm iffy on tornado chances mainly due to moisture concerns as I think there is adequet shear for rotating supercells. How low the bases can get is up in the air (no pun intended), however, it seems the bulk of the activity will occur in the higher terrain of extreme Southern Kansas and the OK/TX Panhandles, so mid 60s TDs aren't as needed there as opposed to Central Oklahoma. With that in mind, it definately perks you up a bit as upper 50s would suffice in many cases.
The timing of the front will also play an interesting role tomorrow. As long as it doesn't come crashing south through the day, we should remain pretty hopeful for severe weather. My target would definately be around and south of the low or along the front where the best convergence and forcing will be. If moisture can pool in the area and shear can remain adequet, I remain hopeful for a good chase tomorrow. I'm also keeping an eye on the cloud cover around the front and may drop south of the low along the dryline if that proves to be an issue. Still maintaining my original plans, I will embark from Garden City, Kansas in the morning for someplace in Central/Eastern part of the Oklahoma Panhandle (Beaver). If laters runs push thing further south, I will have plenty of time to move south from that area, so I feel safe in my starting point tomorrow.
Again, will await another series of runs and chat with my other chaser friends to see how everyone feels. A lot of skeptical optimists with this system, so we'll definately see what happens.
