Finished my midterm exam for DVD class and am awaiting the return of my co-worker then I'll be heading down to grab my check and then off to Garden City. I'm hoping to be very close to Limon by 7pm which will get me into Garden City around 11p CDT. Makes for a nice, quiet evening before tomorrow's chase.
Tom Dulong, one of the Colorado Gang chasers sent us some interesting climatology with systems like this..
I checked the SPC archives for severe weather events associated with ejecting cutoff lows in either October or its spring equivalent, March. The only events that
correlated even slightly for October had higher surface dews and a much deeper upper low that tracked further north.
However, March 21 2005 was fairly close as the low took a similar track as the lastest NAM. However, our system tomorrow will be about 12 hours out-of-phase (too slow). The March 21 case had surface dews in mid 50s to lower 60s out ahead of a surface low extreme southwest KS/northwest OK and trailing dry line into west central TX.
There were 11 tornado reports from just east of the surface low into southeast OK/eastern TX.
Its been a strange year for chasing, and I imagine there will be a few surprises tomorrow (both good and bad). Hopefully I'll do better tomorrow than I did in October last year. I think our chances are better this time around, so I'm a bit more hopeful. I think another difference is my choice to leave tonight as it'll spare me the long day tomorrow. Also, with talks of early initiation, I won't be left pulling into the target immediately upon initiation; I should have some time tomorrow to adjust pending the morning analysis.
Anywoo, this entry marks me being on the road, so you'll hear from me again in Garden City when I arrive at the Best Western. The Colordo gang will be leaving early in the morning from Denver tomorrow is they choose to take on this system.
BTW, I got a 90% on the midterm (yes, it was graded already)... and class hasn't officially started yet! *LOL* See ya in a few hours!
