A lot going on today in the weather world. The obvious MOD RISK over the Midwest which has most everyone's attention. Then what could be a very interesting Spring snowstorm here in the Front Range.
First, I'm gonna stick closer to home. The ETA and the GFS are very different with the potential for snow here in Denver through tomorrow. While the ETA is barely breaking the precip barrier, the GFS is going for nearly half an inch in places. Moisture at low levels is almost non-exisistant, but ample moisture over the mountains could spread eastward and at least give us a shot. Winds aren't looking great for upslope here in Denver, but the Palmer Divide looks good in terms of that. The front is currently in extreme southern Wyoming/extreme northern Colorado, so as that gets down here, we'll start seeing the temps fall and soon after that, the precip. Ratios seem to be about 6 to 1 in terms of snow, but I'm not thinking we'll see a lot here in Denver, maybe upwards of 3 inches with more in some areas where some convective snows develop. I also wouldn't be surprised to hear some thunder on occasion as there is some instability in the area. Very complicated setup kicking through and the models are very different. Will really have to wait throughout the day to see how things progress. I'm leaning strongly towards the lighter amounts in Denver (2 to 4 inches); there's just not enough to convince me that this system can squeeze out more than that.
On the other side of the country, SPC has a MOD RISK for a good chunk of Illinois and Indiana, stretching south through western Kentucky, Tennessee, and into Northern Mississippi. SPC's 15% tornado risk was bumped northward into east-central Illinois and west-central Indiana from their earlier outlook. I would imagine this was in response to how quickly this system is up a moving. As of this writing, there are a pair of MDs out. One of which is discussing the current SEVERE WATCH over Iowa and the other is hinting at a TORNADO WATCH in eastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois. This setup looks good as a nice moisture tounge extends right into the risk area. Both speed and directional shear looks good, but I think a few would agree that the directional shear could be better. None-the-less, it's in place to get storm rotating and I would imagine a higher tornado report count than we've had with some of the systems that passed through the Southeast last week. A small window exists for isolated supercells in parts of Illinois where things look to be coming together better, but I would imagine a linear setup will evolve pretty quickly, so I foresee a short show before things congeal and make a mess.
I haven't seen anything from Amos on his blog, but I know if I were him, I'd be sitting in Central Illinois eating lunch right now. Hell, if I still lived in Circleville, I'd be sitting in Illinois right now eating lunch! I'm guessing he did venture out as close to home as it is for him, especially since he'll end up chasing his way back home as the day progresses. I hope he and everyone else playing the Midwest scores well today. I talked to Doug yesterday and he was preparing to chase Iowa. Not sure how he's going to fare up there, so I'm hoping he's playing a bit further east today. Iowa's already trying to light up, and Illinois is clear and warming fast, so I'd definately be sprinting in that direction.
I obviously had no chance to chase this system today, so I'm not too skittish as this starts to unfold. I was happy to see some severe reports yesterday from South-Central Kansas. I'm not sure who if anyone chased down there, but even with the fact no tornadoes were reported, it was nice to still see some severe in the area I was targeting thanks in part to the moisture which snuck in there. While most of it was small hail, it's at least some verification that something got in there.
Nothing major in the future to discuss... just playing out today from the labs and hoping for the best for all who play the fields. Just FYI, SPC has just issued a TORNADO WATCH for Eastern Iowa and West-Central Illinois. The MD I spoke of earlier pulled through with the watch. The Midwest will be lighting up today!
